YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  2. GreenJ: this is a media responsibility in this plebiscite process: to actually interrogate bigotry, not just report it mutely for the sake of clicks

  5. [Ides of March
    Thank you Gabriel Chan. The plebescite bill is not a DD trigger. It hasnt been rejected twice. The senate voted to no even hear the bill (procedural)    ]

    I’m catching up so someone might have said this again, but;

    The plebiscite bill would not have created a trigger for a DD as it had been amended to remove funding for the yes/no cases and hence was not the same bill.

  6. Ratsak..

    “I almost hope the HC doesn’t knock it down just so the utter ugliness and futility can be forever Trumble’s memorial. He deserves no less than to be forever remembered as the spineless turd who unleashed this shitshow just to save his hide for a few more weeks of weakness.”

    ..well said, I agree..

    If the ‘postal plebiscite” goes ahead, wouldn’t it be against the will of parliament as a plebiscite has been rejected by parliament ..and in that case should it not be funded by those who wish it to proceed, ie: Libs/Nats/Aus Conservatives, etc?

  13. Roberts is 62

    There is little doubt that he was a citizen of both Australia and Britain immediately prior to his ‘election’. The only question is whether he took “all reasonable steps” to have his British citizenship revoked before the election.

  14. The big risk with the Idiot in Chief and North Korea, is the confluence of his own probably dire legal position wrt money laundering, and his need for a BIG DISTRACTION. Nuclear war would fill the bill, and he is too stupid to realise the implications. Even if he doesn’t initiate it himself, he might push Kim Jong Un, another inadequate bully, to do something to precipitate a war.

  15. IoM

    What about the bases in Japan, or Peurto Rico?

    The bases in Japan have always been considered simply about forward defence of Japan and Korea – In the ‘first chain of Islands’ and subject to loss since the Chinese have had the capacity to attack them using their land based missiles with little warning detection time.

    Guam is in the ‘second chain of islands’ from where their was enough time to attempt some anti-missile defence or launch aircraft and missiles in retaliation.

    Guam serious.

    (Puerto Rico is a Caribbean island – assume you meant somewhere else?)

  16. You renounce your British Citizenship here:
    https://www.gov.uk/renounce-british-nationality/apply

    It looks like this:
    *********
    Give up (renounce) British citizenship or nationality

    Overview
    Apply

    After you’ve applied
    Resume your British nationality

    2. Apply

    Fill in both parts of form RN and get the form countersigned by someone over 18 who knows you personally.

    There are 2 parts to the form, the official copy and applicant copy. Make sure you put the same answers in both.

    You can use the same form to give up more than one type of British nationality at the same time, unless one of them is British overseas territories citizenship. If so, you need to fill in 2 forms.
    Where to send your application

    Send your application form, fee and any supporting documents to:

    UKVI
    Department 1
    The Capital
    New Hall Place
    Liverpool
    L3 9PP
    ********
    Not real difficult, even for a global warming denier/halfwit.

  20. After a quick look at the Senate proceedings, it seems the plebiscite bill was sent off by the Senate to a committee and the committee reported to the Senate in May with no action since.

    It seems the government just tried to bring it on for debate today and failed.

    I’m not sure if it had been previously defeated in the Senate and what the timing was (have other things to do today!)

    I would think that referring a bill off to a committee and then failing to proceed with it would constitute “failure to pass”. I’m also not sure where the story about the bill having been amended to take out the campaign funding came from. Perhaps the bill was defeated once by the Senate and then came back from the House with that amendment? Or perhaps it was just intended that the government in the HoR would agree to such an amendment?

    The deletion of the funding might not prevent it being valid for a DD. As I recall, the bill does not have to be identical but substantially for the same purpose. The campaign funding might well be held by the HC not to be an essential part of the bill.

    Still, as other have said, it’s unlikely even this government would be stupid enough to use it as a DD trigger anyway.

    So why did I bother writing all the stuff anyway?

  24. It will be very interesting to see what happens to the standing of the LNP in forthcoming polls. I think they will incur a heavy penalty, on the premise that voters recoil from political fighting and they will feel very repelled indeed by a fight over ME. If voters in general feel anything like the disgust aroused in my own family, the LNP are going to get a massive hiding. We will see.

  28. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is supposed to deliver this postal plebiscite after it has been de-staffed. Will the ABS get more staffing to do this task?

    This year –
    Federal Budget slashes Census funding, Australian Bureau of Statistics to lose 408 jobs
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-budget/federal-budget-slashes-census-funding-australian-bureau-of-statistics-to-lose-408-jobs/news-story/a023ef6c9fbfb7854b5dc6836657c0bf

    Budget forces ABS to cut services
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/budget-forces-abs-to-cut-services/news-story/49aac40bb43bd05d4d37b6fc221d53f5

    2014 –
    ABS staff say data undermined by funding cuts, lack of leadership
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-09/abs-staff-say-data-undermined-by-funding-cuts/5801844

  29. Watching QT is pathetic as Ministers claim they are tackling things that are important as their dis-functional govt collapses around them.

    It doesn’t look that anyone believes what they are saying.

    Shades of Menzies UAP collapsing in 1941?

  31. Shelton of ACL publicly admits the postal plebiscite is about pushing the RW agenda on a lot more issues than SSM:

    What The Marriage Plebiscite Is Really About
    Home / Blog /
    Lyle Shelton Lyle Shelton | August 09, 2017

    The marriage plebiscite is a referendum on freedom of speech and “safe schools” according to the Australian Christian Lobby.

    ACL Managing Director Lyle Shelton said people concerned about freedom and what their children will be taught should vote “no”.

    “Who people love is not a matter for the government but the consequences of redefining marriage are matters for all Australians.

    “There is no greater threat to freedom of conscience and freedom of speech than same-sex marriage. Gender fluid ideology is its fellow traveller and the next great ‘step forward’, according to the UK Government which redefined marriage in 2013,” Mr Shelton said.

    http://www.acl.org.au/what_the_marriage_plebiscite_is_really_about

  34. Wow! Glad I was out all morning and missed the ‘great SSM debate’. It was as bad as I expected. Just two points:

    1. The dictionary definition of a ‘bigot’ is a person who is intolerant towards those holding different opinions. The poster who used the term the most this morning clearly didn’t bother to look it up. Given that they are utterly intolerant of those holding different opinions on same sex marriage, they are at least as bigoted as those they labelled.

    2. Those posters (I counted two, but I must admit I skimmed a lot) who tried to link opposition to gay marriage with condoning paedophilia should take a good long and hard look at themselves – they are using exactly the same tactics for which they (rightly) excoriate their opponents.

    It’s going to be a long and nasty debate, folks. From both sides.

  36. Anyone who says anything like point two should be taken out behind the shed and introduced to a lump of 2×4.
    Player One @ #484 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 2:23 pm

    Wow! Glad I was out all morning and missed the ‘great SSM debate’. It was as bad as I expected. Just two points:

    2. Those posters (I counted two, but I must admit I skimmed a lot) who tried to link opposition to gay marriage with condoning paedophilia should take a good long and hard look at themselves – they are using exactly the same tactics for which they (rightly) excoriate their opponents.

    It’s going to be a long and nasty debate, folks. From both sides.

  40. Puff

    The only point made about child abuse from the pro ME side was just lack of condemnation of child abuse. Bernard Keane has asked this specific question of Lyle Shelton quite a lot.

    Its the anti lot that keep bringing up think of the children.

  41. [mikehilliard
    How is a pamphlet a “substantive & major reform”?

    Talk about half-arsed.]

    This is a major achievement by this Government, rarely does anything they do produce something real.

  42. “US Officials” don’t seem to know the intention of their own government?

    WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The Trump administration appears to be granting Chinese banks dealing with North Korea a temporary reprieve from threatened U.S. sanctions to give Beijing time to show it is serious about enforcing new U.N. steps against Pyongyang, U.S. officials said

    .

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-diplomacy-idUSKBN1AO2KP

  43. MarkDiStef: Dreyfus asks if Turnbull ever dined or took donations from Tony Madafferi.

    Speaker rules the question out of order.

  44. [MarkDiStef: Dreyfus asks if Turnbull ever dined or took donations from Tony Madafferi.

    Speaker rules the question out of order.]

    It’s not a problem if they only had prawns for dinner, rather than lobster.

  46. FARRRRk

    That question from Dreyfus was disallowed. Does Labor know something?

    WTTE
    The state lib leader had a mobster lobster. Has the PM ever had a mobster lobster? Has there been any donations from MobLob and have such been put on the register?

  47. As is commented in the guardian, Turnbull screams about who Shorten has dinner with. Now, that is a sacrosanct topic!
    Oh, Malcolm, this is going to look baaaaaddd. Labor must know what it’s doing.

  49. RealDonaldTrFan: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is threatening to attack #Guam. GUAM! It’s not even part of the USA! This guy is SO dumb & has no clue! Sad! #MAGA

  50. yes, the anti-lot is whom I was referring to, except they are so thick even a two by four couldn’t knock any sense into them.
    guytaur @ #490 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 2:31 pm

    Puff

    The only point made about child abuse from the pro ME side was just lack of condemnation of child abuse. Bernard Keane has asked this specific question of Lyle Shelton quite a lot.

    Its the anti lot that keep bringing up think of the children.

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