YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. The Senate didn’t even vote on the Plebiscite, they refused to debate the bill (by a tie. A vote on actually holding the Plebiscite would be even deader)

  2. hughriminton: “The political left has decided to go with pejorative slurs rather than engage in substantive debate,” says @corybernardi. #plebicite twitter.com/teamtabbott/st…

  3. ratsak @ #292 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:05 am

    TPOF @ #265 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:46 am

    Arguing with GG and his like serves the interests of opponents of marriage equality. It becomes a name calling exercise that turns off the disinterested who might otherwise vote for ME to get it off the table or because they recognise it as a civil and human right.

    Please stop arguing with GG and stop giving him what he wants to bolster his position.

    Now tbf I rarely bother engaging with Guytaur because let’s face it, the lad is a dog with a bone. GG seems to be getting a kick out of keeping him coming back. Not my, nor I suspect many people’s idea of interesting, but hey we all have our kinks. 😉

    Takes two to tango and these two are intent on doing so without either taking a backwards step. Not much beauty, but a damn lot of intensity.

    I’m actually in favour of reasoned debate and discussion. However, friend guytaur is more determined to hector and abuse which is his right. Although it doesn’t do much for the site or his credibility.

    History shows that it’s usually about this stage that he starts crying and threatening to email WB to make me stop.

  4. ?

    I wouldnt want a DD on SSM. That sounds like a license to print and distribute horrible lies and slander.

    On the other hand it would probably be a shellacking for the Coalition.

  5. Pollytics: Bernardi: SSM may lead to bestiality

    Everyone Else: Shut up you spanner

    Bernardi: Pejorative slurs! twitter.com/hughriminton/s…

  6. TPOF @ #252 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:37 am

    Personally, I hope that the proposal is challenged in the court and defeated. It is a terrible precedent in any situation but even worse in this case as it would entrench the idea that voters can get a say on whether members of their society have basic civil rights and equality or not. Marriage equality achieved in these circumstances will be tainted.

    Spot on. Appalling precedent.

  7. RobCoco: @hughriminton @corybernardi What debate though? Why are the human right of a group of people living in Australia even up for debate?

  8. ChristineMilne: Pejorative slurs are hallmark of extreme right who claim airing their prejudice against equality under the law is substantive debate #auspol

  9. One thing I’ll say for the debate on ME, it sure brings out the best and worst in people.

    If the government can’t sort out this issue how are they going to run a referendum on constitutional recognition of our first people.

  10. GG

    You have exposed your hate. You are a bigot and continuing the denigration and abuse will get you barred. I will not have to ask. William will be forced to do it.

  11. @ a r – in order to get access to my email, you need to try millions of possible combinations of passwords, whilst thrwarting the security systems of Google, who are smarter than you are.

    In order to get access to my mail, you need to lift a flap. I could lock it, in which case you would need to use some pliers to cut the lock, then lift flap. Either way, you could train a monkey to do it.

    How exactly is mail less secure?

  12. Personally, I hope that the proposal is challenged in the court and defeated.

    Yes, with the sarcasm switched off, that is what I am hoping.

  13. lizzie @ #256 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:39 am

    Unlike some pundits, I don’t think Dutton’s plan is a delaying tactic. I think Dutton believes he can have his cake and eat it too… i.e. I think he genuinely believes he can sink marriage equality altogether, at least for the foreseeable future. In the process, I think his goal is to bolster his personal profile, strengthen his position within the Liberal Party… and then wait for things to implode. As they inevitably will.

    https://newmatilda.com/2017/08/08/fear-and-loathing-in-canberra-malcolm-turnbull-goes-postal-on-marriage-equality/

    Thanks lizzie.

    If you are wondering whether to abstain or vote yes, READ THIS

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #284 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:00 am

    The last time I looked this is a political problem that should be decided by politicians.

    I’m a voter and have a perfect right to speak about any and all political matters at my discretion.

    I’m sorry you find this attraction to democracy and free speech difficult to deal with.

    Bzzzzt, nice try, fail.

    No one has said you can’t speak on the issue. Just that you are
    a) utterly wrong (and overwhelming demonstrations of why provided)
    b) losing (badly).

    Your last non-sequitur is as unedifying as your appeals to victimhood. I did actually think you might be better than that, but alas…

    In the end no one really gives a flying fuck what contorted reasons you come up with to assert your own privileged position and deny the same to others. It is completely your right to put them. It is completely fair for others to make judgements about what this says about you and demonstrate the logical fallacies and inconsistencies of your arguments.

    But I would suggest you and Abbott et al are playing a dangerous game. Presumably you would seek to enjoy the rights of freedom of religion conferred by our secular liberal democracy. If from now on rights such as these are just ‘politics’, no more secure than the next populist demagogue whipping up a campaign and a shoddy plebiscite, you may find yourself regretting not standing with people who just wanted to share the rights and freedoms you take for granted.

  15. GG

    You are abusing a poster you perceive to be a minority group. There are Federal telecommunications laws regarding this. With jail time.

    Think about what you are doing.

  16. Malcolm Turnbull’s Electricity pricing changes are as rinky tink as I thought they would be. All his concessions are around the discount offers. Nothing about bringing the general price of power down at all:

    Malcolm Turnbull says retailers have agreed to a number of points.

    The retailers have agreed that they will write to their customers who have reached the end of a discounted plan.
    They will outline in plain English alternative offers that are available, included in the next household bill.
    It would include directing them to the Australian Energy Regulator’s Energy Made Easy comparison website or another objective independent comparison website.
    They are going to outline to the government and to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission steps they are taking as individual companies to help customers to better offers, particularly for families and individuals under a hardship program.
    The retailers have agreed to a commitment that those customers will not lose any benefit or discount for late payment.
    They will produce clear user-friendly facts sheets on terms, late payment penalties, early termination payments.
    They will regularly report to the Australian Energy Regulator on how many customers are on offers where the discount period has expired.
    Within six weeks under the national electricity law there will be a clear disclosure at the end of the period of the dollar amount of not doing anything based on past consumption.
    So they will berequired, when a customer is comingto the end of a discounted plan or a benefit plan, to write to them to say, “You are coming to the end of this plan, if you don’t do anything you will go back on the standard rate. Based on your past consumption, that would mean you would be paying $X more. Here are some alternatives”.

    Turnbull says:

    We know that millions of Australian families are paying more than they need for their electricity. They are on plans that have run out, discounted plans that have run out, and they are now on a standard offer and paying too much for their electricity. They have put people who are on the wrong plans, the complexity of the various offers makes it very difficult for many families and businesses to understand what is the right deal for them. Now, we are determined to protect those Australian families.

  17. ratsak @ #320 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:29 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #284 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:00 am

    The last time I looked this is a political problem that should be decided by politicians.

    I’m a voter and have a perfect right to speak about any and all political matters at my discretion.

    I’m sorry you find this attraction to democracy and free speech difficult to deal with.

    Bzzzzt, nice try, fail.

    No one has said you can’t speak on the issue. Just that you are
    a) utterly wrong (and overwhelming demonstrations of why provided)
    b) losing (badly).

    Your last non-sequitur is as unedifying as your appeals to victimhood. I did actually think you might be better than that, but alas…

    In the end no one really gives a flying fuck what contorted reasons you come up with to assert your own privileged position and deny the same to others. It is completely your right to put them. It is completely fair for others to make judgements about what this says about you and demonstrate the logical fallacies and inconsistencies of your arguments.

    But I would suggest you and Abbott et al are playing a dangerous game. Presumably you would seek to enjoy the rights of freedom of religion conferred by our secular liberal democracy. If from now on rights such as these are just ‘politics’, no more secure than the next populist demagogue whipping up a campaign and a shoddy plebiscite, you may find yourself regretting not standing with people who just wanted to share the rights and freedoms you take for granted.

    All that to say you no likey!

    Sad!

  18. We are about to see – and maybe all become participants in – one of the most disreputable and degrading of public disputes. We are all going to feel dirtied by it. There’s just no escaping that. The LNP are going to get the blame for a very blameworthy spectacle. There will be no refuge for the LNP. They have doomed us to a despicable argument and they have doomed themselves to political disgrace.

  19. Abbott.
    ‘If you are against political correctness – vote NO’

    Does that really make sense to people? WTF does it mean?

    ‘If you are against banana coconut apple tree – vote NO’

  20. Will Greensborough Growler leave Australia and go live in a country where there is no Same Sex Marriage if it becomes legal in Australia? If not, then he is a hypocrite because what that will say is that he really can live side by side with gay couples.

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #304 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:14 am

    I’m actually in favour of reasoned debate and discussion.

    Yet you haven’t provided any. It’s more banging on about how only 0.38% of the population is made up of gay couples, or how feeling like a valid stakeholder in a debate about something that will never, ever affect you somehow makes you one.

    Followed by playing the victim card when people point out the weakness of your position, unnecessarily accusing people of shutting down your right to hold and express an opinion merely because they’ve pointed out how flawed and incorrect your opinion happens to be.

  22. GG

    Then stop your abuse. Accept you are hate mongering in denying equality before the law. Its the very point your fellow catholic Christen Milne a respected Senator is making.

  23. a r @ #330 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:35 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #304 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:14 am

    I’m actually in favour of reasoned debate and discussion.

    Yet you haven’t provided any. It’s more banging on about how only 0.38% of the population is made up of gay couples, or how feeling like a valid stakeholder in a debate about something that will never, ever affect you somehow makes you one.

    Followed by playing the victim card when people point out the weakness of your position, unnecessarily accusing people of shutting down your right to hold and express an opinion merely because they’ve pointed out how flawed and incorrect your opinion happens to be.

    I would have thought the only unnecessary comment was the one claiming I didn’t have the right to comment on a political issue.

    But you go along with your fantasies.

    I am winning this debate so much!

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #325 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:33 am

    guytaur @ #321 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:30 am

    GG

    You are abusing a poster you perceive to be a minority group. There are Federal telecommunications laws regarding this. With jail time.

    Think about what you are doing.

    methinks your hyperbole cup runneth over!

    Not much to agree with GG on this morning, but on this one? Yeah, give it a rest guytaur old son. His opinions might well be founded in bigotry, but jail time? He’s been trying to goad you into stupidity and been remarkably successful at this point.

  25. GG

    Its a simple fact. You do not get to argue that gays are not equal. That means you don’t get to argue that you are for equality and against marriage equality. Equality before the law demands just that equality. Your religion does not come into it.

  26. C@tmomma @ #329 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:35 am

    Will Greensborough Growler leave Australia and go live in a country where there is no Same Sex Marriage if it becomes legal in Australia? If not, then he is a hypocrite because what that will say is that he really can live side by side with gay couples.

    Nice hyperbole.

    There is plenty of things of which I do not approve. Collingwood supporters, abortion, prostitution and the clock showing 6 am in the morning.

    But, I manage to get on with my daily life despite of all these affronts.

  27. ratsak

    The Federal Telecommunications Act has been used to jail people for bullying and abuse. No physical connection was required. Just harm to the victim.

    Thats not hyperbole.

    I did not say that GG had reached that point yet.

  28. Just for the record Federal law does not preclude abuse of a minority at all (except in so far as it would otherwise be illegal), that’s ridiculously overbroad and clearly violates freedom of political speech to boot. Federal law prevents abuse of protected groups on the basis of membership of those groups.

    GG does not appear to be doing anything in violation of that standard. At least not by any sane definition of abuse (disagreement is not inherently abuse).

  29. guytaur @ #335 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:42 am

    GG

    Its a simple fact. You do not get to argue that gays are not equal. That means you don’t get to argue that you are for equality and against marriage equality. Equality before the law demands just that equality. Your religion does not come into it.

    It’s a simple fact that I get to put my views any time I want (at WBs discretion of course). You might just have to learn to deal with alternative points of view without descending in to personal abuse and hectoring as you have this morning.

  30. Pauline Hanson is planning to personally move the motion referring her embattled senator Malcolm Roberts to the High Court over dual citizenship concerns.

    Stick a fork in him, he’s done

  31. C@t,
    I’ll try out a bit of my own bigotry…
    ‘If you are against cars that don’t give way to pedestrians when turning – vote NO’
    ‘If you are against large groups of people who stop to chat and block up the footpath without moving aside for others – vote NO’
    ‘If you are against people who use up 2 parks with one car – vote NO’

    Nah, it still doesn’t make sense 🙂

  32. Question @ #293 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 11:05 am

    Last night I thought Abbott was crapping on the postal vote, but I saw him on the TV today saying it was a great Idea. He listed a whole lot of grievances, and ended each with the answer “VOTE NO”. It was a delightful blast from the past.

    It also gave a hint as to the world of pain Turnbull has invited in with a plebiscite, as all the nutbags will be applying all sorts of unrelated crap to the ‘NO’ campaign.

    Come on, did nobody see Abbott’s performance in the Republic referendum? Every non sequitur they can imagine will get thrown in. If you don’t trust politicians, vote no. If you don’t think it’s fair that we’re talking about gays when you’re losing your jobs to immigrants, vote no. If you don’t think climate change is real, vote no.

    Abbott and Dutton will be outdoing each other to signal to the loons that they are their true leader. Trumble will be hiding.

    I almost hope the HC doesn’t knock it down just so the utter ugliness and futility can be forever Trumble’s memorial. He deserves no less than to be forever remembered as the spineless turd who unleashed this shitshow just to save his hide for a few more weeks of weakness.

  33. Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives party will advocate withdrawing from the United Nations refugee convention and halving the immigration intake in an election platform that will put political pressure on the Coalition as it attempts to woo back disaffected rightwing voters.

    Australian Conservatives has uploaded a new policy manifesto to its website which advocates “immediately” halving Australia’s net immigration intake and withdrawing from the UN refugee convention to allow Australia to determine its refugee intake “free from external constraints”.

    The party also advocates that family reunion should only be made available to visa applicants who declare their relatives at the time of the initial visa application.

    The policy supports Australia’s “world-leading offshore processing and illegal boat arrival turnback policies” but it says that all determinations of visa applications should take place in Australia, including visa applications from “identified high-risk countries”.

    Cory making his move?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/09/cory-bernardis-party-calls-for-pulling-out-of-refugee-convention-and-halving-immigration?CMP=share_btn_tw

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