YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. [lizzie
    Turnbull, at interfaith breakfast.

    we are closest to God, when we love.

    My head is exploding.]

    But Lizzie, the Conservatives are all about love; …

    tough love.

    Asylum seeker policy

    Welfare reform
    etc

  3. Leanne_Donn: .@TurnbullMalcolm what’s the best way for LGBTQ teens to respond to playground bullies parroting hate from the ACL that has been distributed

    The denigration of trans people to justify denying equality to gay people because of think of the children is truly vile.

  7. GG

    Look at the mirror.

    You defend a catholic church when a child abuse royal commission is on. You side with Fred Nile Lyle Shelton Tony Abbott and the other haters to deny equality to a whole class of people.

    I think you will find the word bigot is actually very polite really instead of a whole lot of other names you could be called which really would be abuse.

  8. GG

    It’s the two-faced Mal, who allows refugees to die under our care, and whose policies denigrate the homeless, the sick, the poor…

  9. “Some experts translate the commandment about ‘using God’s name in vain’ to be not about blasphemy but about using God to justify your own actions and opinions.”

    I’d agree with that position. But i will always take the stance that secular law, its evolution and development in terms of human rights, takes precedence over any religiously defined position.

  11. guytaur @ #207 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:14 am

    GG

    Look at the mirror.

    You defend a catholic church when a child abuse royal commission is on. You side with Fred Nile Lyle Shelton Tony Abbott and the other haters to deny equality to a whole class of people.

    I think you will find the word bigot is actually very polite really instead of a whole lot of other names you called be called which really would be abuse.

    You really are trying so hard to rationalise your abusive tendencies, aren’t you?

  16. [Alleged Mafia boss promised post-dinner donation of ‘swag of money’ ]

    Headline from The Age.

    Matthew Guy’s career in politics is dead in the water. The simple question he needs to answer is “What did you promise the mafia to have their promise of swags of money being donated to the Liberal party?

  17. “Yes the whole pro SSM push is about re-defining the word marriage to suit yourself.”

    With respect GG…calling bullshit on that. Its a Human Rights / Equality issue.

  20. MattAkersten: Wait until the American conservative ‘spiritual leaders’ arrive, the ones who lost this fight in the States. It’s gonna get batshit crazy.

  21. The White House Is Propping Up Depressed Trump With Two Folders Of Propaganda A Day

    Donald Trump receives two folders of screen grabs, transcripts, and pictures of himself looking strong each day as the White House using the communications office to compile propaganda that makes Trump feel better.

    This president is so mentally broken that he requires looking pictures of himself to feel strong. Donald Trump isn’t fit to be president, but as long as Republicans maintain control of Congress and continue to enable him, America will be stuck with him until at least 2020.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/08/white-house-propping-depressed-trump-folders-propaganda-day.html

  23. Saw Uhlmann on ABC TV this morning. He said the government could be talking about it’s security victories, but is instead mired in SSM.

    Note to Uhlmann: fighting terrorists is not supposed to be partisan. What exactly has the government done that any government wouldn’t have?

  24. Matthew Guy’s career in politics is dead in the water. The simple question he needs to answer is “What did you promise the mafia to have their promise of swags of money being donated to the Liberal party?

    Seems like it had to do with bringing the Wholesale Markets back from Epping in Victoria, to the city. The delicate mafioso flowers didn’t like the travel, or the manager of the wholesale markets at Epping either. Probably didn’t let them conduct business their way.

  26. Ex-FBI agent Clint Watts explains exactly how Russian bots can hack Trump’s brain via Twitter

    n, MSNBC’s “Meet the Press Daily,” former FBI Agent Clint Watts explained how President Donald Trump’s Twitter account is a target for nefarious bad actors, both political and criminal.

    “If I was a foreign government and I wanted to influence the United States, I would take this free, very cost effective method, just do the basic analytics of it and you get a window into his mind on what appeals to him and how to influence him,” Watts explained.

    “How much of Twitter’s traffic is bottish?”“I think probably 20% to 30% is my opinion,

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/ex-fbi-agent-clint-watts-explains-exactly-how-russian-bots-can-hack-trumps-brain-via-twitter/

  28. srpeatling: .@SenatorWong: “You talk about unifying moments? It is not a
    unifying moment. It is exposing our children to that kind of hatred.”

    All to say gay people are less than others because they want the equality of marriage.

    Keeping a whole class of people as second class citizens.

    GG

    Thats the argument you are making. That the LGBTI community is not entitled to the equality of marriage.
    Look to who your bedfellows are and think.

  29. This poll is so out of kilter with every other it’ll either become the gold standard by proving everyone else wrong or get flushed down the brascoe within a year or two.

  30. Trump ‘was pissed’ when he read that General Kelly wants to control his Twitter feed: report

    Donald Trump was ticked off by reports that his chief of staff General John Kelly was trying to control his Twitter feed, the Washington Examiner reports.

    According to a person familiar with Trump, reports that Kelly’s structural changes in the West Wing sought to limit access to the president and “[push] the tweets in the right direction.” angered the commander-in-chief.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/trump-was-pissed-when-he-read-that-general-kelly-wants-to-control-his-twitter-feed-report/

  31. lanesainty: Hinch quotes Howard saying marriage is up to parliament, quotes Abbott saying 44th parli was the last in which govt MPs should be bound.

  33. Keith Olbermann shreds MSNBC for soft-selling ‘f*cking crazy’ Trump on North Korea in Twitter rant

    Broadcasting legend Keith Olbermann had harsh words for the TV network he helped lead for eight years as host of “Countdown with Keith Olbermann” on MSNBC.

    Olbermann essentially accused MSNBC brass of censoring the network’s reporters on the subject of Donald Trump.

    Keith Olbermann
    ✔ ‎@KeithOlbermann

    Jesus Fucking Christ, MSNBC, Trump’s escalating it because he’s fucking crazy and your boss Andy Lack won’t let you call him that.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/keith-olbermann-shreds-msnbc-for-soft-selling-fcking-crazy-trump-on-north-korea-in-twitter-rant/

  34. workmanalice: @RichardDiNatale @HumanHeadline Hinch says he will support second reading but “this man is not for turning” … he will vote down plebiscite.

  35. Barney in Go Dau @ #170 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:45 am

    GG,

    The problem with the way you engage on this issue is that you prefer to play word games rather than contributing anything of substance to the debate.

    Is that because you have nothing of substance to contribute and you just wish to obstruct the debate?

    As I said a couple of days ago, the only arguments the nay sayers have are fallacious appeals to the authority of a deity that has no standing in a secular society, or fallacious appeals to tradition which ignore the tradition of changes to what what is considered a marriage for a start.

    It’s simply wrong headed to argue why a freedom should be extended to a class of people. It is up to those arguing for denial of that freedom to put the case for why it should be denied. No cogent argument has been put, just fallacies. I suspect if there were a cogent argument it would have been put by now.

  36. workmanalice: @RichardDiNatale @HumanHeadline Hinch says postal plebiscite is open to fraud… questions why can’t there be email votes for young people.

  37. Question @ #223 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:22 am

    Saw Uhlmann on ABC TV this morning. He said the government could be talking about it’s security victories, but is instead mired in SSM.

    Note to Uhlmann: fighting terrorists is not supposed to be partisan. What exactly has the government done that any government wouldn’t have?

    Very good point. In what parallel universe do a few arrests and charges yet to go to court constitute a victory?

  38. The bank that facilitated funding for drugs and terrorism declares itself innocent of any wrongdoing:

    The Commonwealth Bank says it has no reason to believe alleged breaches of money-laundering laws arose from deliberate or unethical behaviour, or any commercial motive.

    The statement came as CBA’s board moved to create a dedicated subcommittee to deal with the allegations by Austrac, with $40 million worth of new anti-money laundering technology to be delivered over the next 12 months.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/cba-says-no-unethical-behaviour-behind-moneylaundering-scandal/news-story/f5fed05fa40066ce18af27042878620f

  40. [Burgey
    This poll is so out of kilter with every other it’ll either become the gold standard by proving everyone else wrong or get flushed down the brascoe within a year or two.    ]

    Actually as William says, applying last election preferences to the primary figures has it close to other polls.

    However it highlights the discrepancies in how they allocate preferences.

  41. A history of marriage in Australia
    OPINION
    By Rodney Croome
    Updated 1 Jul 2011, 2:38pm

    Rally in support of gay marriage rights (Getty Images: Luis Ascui)
    PHOTO: Rally in support of gay marriage rights (Getty Images: Luis Ascui)
    On August 13, 2004, in a debate punctuated by rage and tears, the Senate passed a Howard government amendment to the Marriage Act banning same-sex marriages.

    Exactly 45 years earlier, on August 13, 1959, in the midst of debating Australia’s first national Marriage Act – the one Howard later amended – the House of Representatives erupted at the news an Aboriginal woman had been denied permission to marry.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-01/croomemarriage/2778326

    So much for GG’s tradition of marriage.

  42. ratsak @ #235 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:28 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #170 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:45 am

    GG,

    The problem with the way you engage on this issue is that you prefer to play word games rather than contributing anything of substance to the debate.

    Is that because you have nothing of substance to contribute and you just wish to obstruct the debate?

    As I said a couple of days ago, the only arguments the nay sayers have are fallacious appeals to the authority of a deity that has no standing in a secular society, or fallacious appeals to tradition which ignore the tradition of changes to what what is considered a marriage for a start.

    It’s simply wrong headed to argue why a freedom should be extended to a class of people. It is up to those arguing for denial of that freedom to put the case for why it should be denied. No cogent argument has been put, just fallacies. I suspect if there were a cogent argument it would have been put by now.

    Exactly.
    It is totally and utterly irrational.

  43. Burgey
    This poll is so out of kilter with every other it’ll either become the gold standard by proving everyone else wrong or get flushed down the brascoe within a year or two.

    I have given up taking this poll seriously. It’s only saving grace is that, as WB points out, when you use the previous election preferences on the primaries the TPP is not quite so absurd. Anyone who follows politics would have a hard time believing the government is anywhere within cooee of the last election result. Indeed for quite a while now I have been expecting ALP 55-45’s.

  44. Palmer Report‏ @ PalmerReport

    Here is the thing about Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump. One is an insecure wannabe dictator with a broken psyche and bad hair.

    So is the other.

  45. “Saw Uhlmann on ABC TV this morning. He said the government could be talking about it’s security victories, but is instead mired in SSM.”
    .
    .
    .
    The recent arrests that were tipped off by foreign intelligence agency, the one where border farce completely failed to detect posted bomb making gear ?
    That victory,…

  46. guytaur @ #229 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:25 am

    srpeatling: .@SenatorWong: “You talk about unifying moments? It is not a
    unifying moment. It is exposing our children to that kind of hatred.”

    All to say gay people are less than others because they want the equality of marriage.

    Keeping a whole class of people as second class citizens.

    GG

    Thats the argument you are making. That the LGBTI community is not entitled to the equality of marriage.
    Look to who your bedfellows are and think.

    Rinse and repeat ad nauseum!

  47. Point of note.

    Rejecting the plebiscite bill won’t be a DD trigger as they have amended it to remove public funding for the yes/no campaigns.

  49. Rob_Stott: Janet Rice now talking about her wife, Penny, who is transgender and can’t change the gender on her birth certificate without a divorce

  50. C@tmomma

    Yeah that does seem to be the issue. You’d have to think that move will never happen thanks to Guy.

    What I’d like to know is where did the Fairfax/ABC reporters get these transcripts. Has there been an AFP or Vic Police operation involving tapped phones or were they taped by a Lib staffer who’s gone rogue? It looks like the dirty waters are also lapping at Kroger’s feet.

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