YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

Comments Page 6 of 39
1 … 5 6 7 … 39

  1. Malcolm Nance‏Verified account

    McMaster, Kelly & Mattis better defuse & engage brake on Trumps mouth in the next 24 hours or it will be clear they encouraged NK war talk.

    Watch for key indicators Trump plans war: 1) US mil dependents evacuate fm SK. 2) mobiliz of USMC @ San Diego 3)unplanned Missiles to PAC NW

  2. In the discussion of the boycott proposal, bear in mind the huge difference between a boycott, where no action is deliberately taken, and an invalid vote deliberately cast. Especially in the case of a non-compulsory postal ballot.

    A simple boycott can be represented as lack of interest. In the case of a compulsory vote, it could be represented as people turning up because they have to but are too uninterested or incompetent to cast a valid vote.

    However, if someone goes to the effort of going to the post box and sending back a paper with something like ‘Do your job’ inscribed on it, the message cannot be avoided. There is NO WAY to interpret such a return as anything other than a deliberate protest at having this expensive farce.

    Even if the actual sentiment written on the paper is not recorded, the fact of sending back an invalid form will definitely be recorded. It will be an UNAMBIGUOUS rejection of the way the Coalition has dealt with this fundamental issue of civil rights.

    And, unlike an election, there is nothing illegal about a campaign to encourage people to respond in this way, because this whole process is outside the Electoral Act.

    Personally, I hope that the proposal is challenged in the court and defeated. It is a terrible precedent in any situation but even worse in this case as it would entrench the idea that voters can get a say on whether members of their society have basic civil rights and equality or not. Marriage equality achieved in these circumstances will be tainted.

  3. adrian @ #243 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:32 am

    ratsak @ #235 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:28 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #170 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:45 am

    GG,

    The problem with the way you engage on this issue is that you prefer to play word games rather than contributing anything of substance to the debate.

    Is that because you have nothing of substance to contribute and you just wish to obstruct the debate?

    As I said a couple of days ago, the only arguments the nay sayers have are fallacious appeals to the authority of a deity that has no standing in a secular society, or fallacious appeals to tradition which ignore the tradition of changes to what what is considered a marriage for a start.

    It’s simply wrong headed to argue why a freedom should be extended to a class of people. It is up to those arguing for denial of that freedom to put the case for why it should be denied. No cogent argument has been put, just fallacies. I suspect if there were a cogent argument it would have been put by now.

    Exactly.
    It is totally and utterly irrational.

    But, consenting adults already have the right to form on-going same sex relationships.

    The Census shows there are 46,000 such relationships accounting for 0.38% of the population.

    So, problem solved apart from re-defining the meaning of the word marriage.

  4. The solution to the CBA problem is simple.

    Such a thing should never be allowed to happen again.

    Austrac should be er realigned with the priorities and objectives of the government in a modern transformative economy.

    A few key new (ex-LNP ministers) appointments here and there and a minor changes to the legislation should do the trick.

  6. It’s hard for mere mortals who struggle along on an average wage to understand how any responsible person – let alone a minister or prime minister of the Crown – could be prepared to waste so much money, particularly given this same mob told us only a few years ago that it was ‘the end of the age of entitlement’, and we all needed to tighten our economic belts.

    But ours is not to question why. Ours is simply to foot the bill… and the ‘question’ will arrive in the mail, sometime around November.

    Still, it begs the question, why, given the overwhelming community support for marriage equality in Australia, would the Turnbull government risk widespread condemnation by wasting so much taxpayer money in such lean times? Surely, they’re on a hiding to nothing?

    Well, don’t be so sure, at least not in the short term. That would be to underestimate the cunning of Dutton, the weakness of his leader Malcolm Turnbull, the general apathy of the Australian population when they tire of a political debate, and the bone-idle laziness of the mainstream media who are supposed to be there to help make sense of it all.

    Unlike some pundits, I don’t think Dutton’s plan is a delaying tactic. I think Dutton believes he can have his cake and eat it too… i.e. I think he genuinely believes he can sink marriage equality altogether, at least for the foreseeable future. In the process, I think his goal is to bolster his personal profile, strengthen his position within the Liberal Party… and then wait for things to implode. As they inevitably will.

    https://newmatilda.com/2017/08/08/fear-and-loathing-in-canberra-malcolm-turnbull-goes-postal-on-marriage-equality/

  7. In short, we need to engage with this farce – but by sending a response that is invalid and rejects the whole idea of this question being put to the public in an obscenely expensive and unscientific opinion poll.

  10. This joke of a postal vote will be like a ticking time bomb for this government, everytime they mention that there isn’t enough money for this that or the other.

    People will not forget that they could find $120 million for something that is far worse than useless.

  12. GG

    Lyle Shelton also declares being called a bigot is abuse.

    Good company you are keeping.

    Use your brain overcome your prejudice. Embrace equality.

  13. Trump Just Unwittingly Revealed He Knows a Bombshell is Coming

    The best place to watch for a breaking story is Trump himself. Every time a story is about to break Trump starts spewing nonsense distractions to take away from that days headlines. It happened when the subpoenas from the Special Counsel came out, it happened when Trump Jr.’s meeting was exposed, and now it’s happening again. We just don’t know what bombshell is coming next.

    When a major story is about to break, news publications reach out to the parties involved for comment. That’s how Trump always stays one step ahead. If his Twitter is any indication, this next bombshell will be a big one and it’s coming rather soon.

    http://www.bluedotdaily.com/trump-just-unwittingly-revealed-he-knows-a-bombshell-is-coming/

  14. MarkDiStef: BREAKING: Nick Xenophon will support referring Malcolm Roberts to the High Court – giving Greens the numbers to get across the line.

  15. Arguing with GG and his like serves the interests of opponents of marriage equality. It becomes a name calling exercise that turns off the disinterested who might otherwise vote for ME to get it off the table or because they recognise it as a civil and human right.

    Please stop arguing with GG and stop giving him what he wants to bolster his position.

  16. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 58m58 minutes ago

    Kroger on ABC treats us like idiots. As if donations can’t be broken up or made via Liberal foundations. Blaming Labor for the taped call.

    I wouldn’t trust Kroger farther than I could throw him. But I would love to know how these conversations were made available.

  19. The good thing is, that the MSM are most coming down on the government like a ton of bricks. If the polls don’t soon provide a few 55-45’s I don’t know what will.

    And surely Turnbull’s PPM numbers can’t be sustained when SSM shows that he has absolutely no ability to lead his party.

  20. TPOF

    Better than letting the arguments pass unchallenged.

    Claiming being abused is a classic tactic of racists homophobes misogynists etc.

    You have to call them out for their behaviour.

    Its not name calling when its an actual description of behaviour. See dictionary definition.

    I will no more stop using bigot on this argument than I will about Brandis with 18C

    I do not think there is a right to be a bigot.

  21. guytaur

    Please stop feeding the argument. You’ll never win, because GG enjoys these exchanges.
    I just find them wearisome, as TPOF says.

  22. Aqualung

    mikehilliard, I think they should find someone other than Eeyore, Tigger, Piglet and Winnie the Pooh to poll.

    Yep, they seem to be down the bottom of the garden with the fairies.

  24. Well, off to the courts now. Anyone know if the case will be open to the media? I would love to hear the Libs try to justify the plebiscite as “emergency spending”

  25. “I’m actually enjoying you destroy your credibility with every abusive post.”

    GG, your well in this provoking what you call “abuse”. Seems to me that most here are engaged in robust debate rather than abuse and maybe you should be a little less precious in this arena where people obviously have strong views, getting stirred up by the idiocy of the LNP approach and the reaction its getting.

  26. lizzie

    No its up to GG to stop not me.

    I will not let hate win.

    Not ever. Too bad its tiresome. Welcome to what gay people put up with every day.

  27. lizzie @ #267 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:47 am

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 58m58 minutes ago

    Kroger on ABC treats us like idiots. As if donations can’t be broken up or made via Liberal foundations. Blaming Labor for the taped call.

    I wouldn’t trust Kroger farther than I could throw him. But I would love to know how these conversations were made available.

    It’s an interesting question.

    My guess is that there is some sort of on-going major crime investigation and this phone conversation came up in the phone taps.

    How it got to the Labor party is another good question. Information I have read is that Andrews had the information since May. The press leaks and co-ordinated campaign looks carefully orchestrated.

  28. With respect GG, your decision is not rational but based on a questionable religious ideal. Sorry – I cannot agree with your stance on a basic right that should exist for every individual in our society – the word ‘individual’ being key.

    The marriage of the gay couple next door would have no bearing at all upon your life. None whatsoever.

    If you are fearing for their immortal souls, as my father-in-law would have done, then your concern is misguided and should be aimed at more important issues.

  29. So, problem solved apart from re-defining the meaning of the word marriage.

    Yeah, nah. An unaffected third party doesn’t get to define someone else’s problem. And you are an unaffected third party.

    This is strictly an issue between teh gays and teh gov on the question of if their partnerships should be recorded and recognized by the government in exactly the same way as heterosexual partnerships are. You simply don’t have a dog in the fight. “I don’t like it” isn’t an argument and it doesn’t give you standing. It just lumps you with Pauline.

    There is little more unedifying than a person who has traditionally enjoyed privilege playing the victim card. You are better than this. We’ve seen examples of great generosity from you. Not just cheap words, but actual deeds. Be that person. On this occasion it costs you nothing, but I’ve no doubt that once you extended the same generosity to these people you’d feel the same contentment you’ve no doubt derived (deservedly) from previous acts of generosity.

  30. guytaur @ #277 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:51 am

    lizzie

    No its up to GG to stop not me.

    I will not let hate win.

    Not ever. Too bad its tiresome. Welcome to what gay people put up with every day.

    Ever the victim aren’t you champ. But, it’s you that continues the never ending abuse. I’m always happy to put my arguments in a considered and thoughtful way. you should try it some time.

    I suppose you are now going to justify your continuing thuggery.

  34. ratsak @ #280 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:56 am

    So, problem solved apart from re-defining the meaning of the word marriage.

    Yeah, nah. An unaffected third party doesn’t get to define someone else’s problem. And you are an unaffected third party.

    This is strictly an issue between teh gays and teh gov on the question of if their partnerships should be recorded and recognized by the government in exactly the same way as heterosexual partnerships are. You simply don’t have a dog in the fight. “I don’t like it” isn’t an argument and it doesn’t give you standing. It just lumps you with Pauline.

    There is little more unedifying than a person who has traditionally enjoyed privilege playing the victim card. You are better than this. We’ve seen examples of great generosity from you. Not just cheap words, but actual deeds. Be that person. On this occasion it costs you nothing, but I’ve no doubt that once you extended the same generosity to these people you’d feel the same contentment you’ve no doubt derived (deservedly) from previous acts of generosity.

    The last time I looked this is a political problem that should be decided by politicians.

    I’m a voter and have a perfect right to speak about any and all political matters at my discretion.

    I’m sorry you find this attraction to democracy and free speech difficult to deal with.

  35. Interesting match on PB.

    GG – the most abusive poster ever on PB
    vs
    Guytaur – the most relentlessly determined poster on PB.

    Anyone else bored witless by it?

  38. Tom Hawkins

    T Madafferi is a person of interest in the murder of his former. Lawyer Joseph Acquaro. It was alleged he had a $200,000 bounty on Acquaro’s head. Later on police reported that their investigation was going in a different direction. Who knows the reality.
    My view is that Madafferi has been under constant surveillance Cos it is believed he is top dog of organised crime.

  41. TPOF @ #265 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:46 am

    Arguing with GG and his like serves the interests of opponents of marriage equality. It becomes a name calling exercise that turns off the disinterested who might otherwise vote for ME to get it off the table or because they recognise it as a civil and human right.

    Please stop arguing with GG and stop giving him what he wants to bolster his position.

    Now tbf I rarely bother engaging with Guytaur because let’s face it, the lad is a dog with a bone. GG seems to be getting a kick out of keeping him coming back. Not my, nor I suspect many people’s idea of interesting, but hey we all have our kinks. 😉

    Takes two to tango and these two are intent on doing so without either taking a backwards step. Not much beauty, but a damn lot of intensity.

  43. Last night I thought Abbott was crapping on the postal vote, but I saw him on the TV today saying it was a great Idea. He listed a whole lot of grievances, and ended each with the answer “VOTE NO”. It was a delightful blast from the past.

    It also gave a hint as to the world of pain Turnbull has invited in with a plebiscite, as all the nutbags will be applying all sorts of unrelated crap to the ‘NO’ campaign.

  44. Thank you Gabriel Chan. The plebescite bill is not a DD trigger. It hasnt been rejected twice. The senate voted to no even hear the bill (procedural)

  46. ratsak @ #235 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:28 am
    As I said a couple of days ago, the only arguments the nay sayers have are fallacious appeals to the authority of a deity that has no standing in a secular society, or fallacious appeals to tradition which ignore the tradition of changes to what what is considered a marriage for a start.

    It’s simply wrong headed to argue why a freedom should be extended to a class of people. It is up to those arguing for denial of that freedom to put the case for why it should be denied. No cogent argument has been put, just fallacies. I suspect if there were a cogent argument it would have been put by now

    This is the crux of it.

    And the fallacies are pouring forth (going all biblically)

    * it will lead to polygamy (B Bishop)
    * it will lead to bestiality (Bernardi)
    * it will lead to child abuse (ACL and the known protectors of known paedophiles)
    * it will encroach on freedom of speech (Abbott)
    * it will encroach on freedom of religion (Abbott)
    * it will ______ (insert any construct with high emotional content but with no evidence whatsoever, except to the contrary)

    It is interesting but not surprising to see Abbott trying to co-opt political correctness, his version of it, into the no vote.

  49. Ides,

    And I was so hoping it would be a DD trigger, so then the RWNJ’s could take back the L-NP and call an election on it : )

    You never know? The L-NP are not a very rational lot.

  50. AlexGreenwich: The Governmentis going from disappointing the public to weakening the role of parliament. Laws are made by parliament not surveys.

Comments Page 6 of 39
1 … 5 6 7 … 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *