YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. @ dtt – I suspect it’s just you that would. If a person is found guilty of electoral fraud and/or treason, some of us believe that person should be given the appropriate punishment under the law.

    Lets imagine an operator of a nuclear power station went around murdering people. Would you suggest letting him get away with it because his replacement in the job might be worse?

  2. C@tmomma @ #135 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:16 am

    If name calling and abuse is all you’ve got, you ain’t got much have you?

    Mirror, meet Greensborough Growler.

    I don’t intend to continue to post on this matter, because it is just going to get nastier and nastier. However, in this instance I think it is clearly GG who is being bullied and abused, by guytaur.

    It is one thing to hold an opinion and to push for reform on an issue you believe in very strongly. It is quite another to insist that any opinion that doesn’t agree with yours is bigoted and homophobic. I have never seen evidence that GG is either of these things. He simply holds a different opinion, and is prepared to defend it.

  3. @ P1 – and the opinion that GG holds is that gays don’t deserve equal treatment.

    To clarify – you are entitled to your own opinions, as long as those opinions don’t infringe upon inalienable rights of others.

  4. adrian @ #141 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:21 am

    Marriage Equality is just the connection of two words to generate a meaningless marketing concept.

    As said by someone for whom marriage is a right and who apparently, for some reason yet to be disclosed, wants to deny that right to others based solely on their sexuality.

    Thanks for the misrepresentation.

    Marriage is actually defined in this country as a relationship between a man and a woman. I do not think that definition needs to be changed.

    It’s not true that i have not disclosed my reasons, my logic or my proposed outcomes re this ssm discussion.

    I don’t feel inclined to repeat myself. But, I’m sure you could scroll back to monday to see what I actually have said.

    But, I understand if you don’t want to inform yourself.

  5. P1

    I am calling out bigotry. Any who want to deny a whole class of people equality are bigots.

    Thats not abuse. Thats what is happening.

  6. GG

    Like it or not most people don’t care what consenting adults do in their bedroom; actually with the removal of sodomy from the statute books; nor does the state. People care even less about who get married.

  7. I expect the ACL will receive considerable financial and logistical help from their wealthy and politically powerful compatriots in the US to pursue the “no” case. Since this is not an election matter, they will not have to declare the extent of this assistance.

  8. Voice Endeavour @ #154 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:31 am

    @ P1 – and the opinion that GG holds is that gays don’t deserve equal treatment.

    To clarify – you are entitled to your own opinions, as long as those opinions don’t infringe upon inalienable rights of others.

    That’s your opinion and it sems to be imposing on my alienable rights.

    perhaps you will stop now!

  9. guytaur @ #159 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:36 am

    P1

    I am calling out bigotry. Any who want to deny a whole class of people equality are bigots.

    Thats not abuse. Thats what is happening.

    I get that you don’t get it, but try arguing positively in favor of what you believe in instead of simply insulting your opponents. You may be surprised at how effective it is.

  10. frednk @ #160 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:38 am

    GG

    Like it or not most people don’t care what consenting adults do in their bedroom; actually with the removal of sodomy from the statute books; nor does the state. People care even less about who get married.

    Like it or not, I have never worried about what consenting adults do in the bedroom.

    So, this attempted smear to conflate two separate issues doesn’t do you any credit.

  11. That’s your opinion and it sems to be imposing on my alienable rights.

    Why should you and your kind be the only ones allowed to possess these inalienable rights?

  12. GG,

    The problem with the way you engage on this issue is that you prefer to play word games rather than contributing anything of substance to the debate.

    Is that because you have nothing of substance to contribute and you just wish to obstruct the debate?

  13. P1

    You don’t understand the history of gay rights. Gays tried the be polite approach with the bigots like Fred Nile and Lyle Shelton. It got them nowhere.

    In the US they tried the polite approach. Each time it failed. It actually took a riot to get rights on the agenda.

    So no gay person is going to fall for the be respectful to the bigots argument.


  14. Greensborough Growler
    ..
    Like it or not, I have never worried about what consenting adults do in the bedroom.

    So why do you care if the call their relationship a a marriage?

  15. @ GG – Ok, from fundamentals so you can see where you went wrong.

    You have a right to do anything that does not have any negative consequences on anyone else.

    Butterfly effect aside, you are not effected by two people getting married, regardless of their genitalia.

    Therefore, the people getting married have an inalienable right to do so.

    Therefore, your expressing hatred for them for wanting to do so is bigotry. It is an action that does have negative consequences on many people.

    My calling you out on your bigotry is therefore justified, and is therefore not bigotry. This is not a symmetrical situation.

  16. Good morning all.

    I support SSM and will vote yes if the postal debacle actually happens.

    I know a number of people, good honest charitable people who do not support SSM for a number of reasons. We have had numerous respectful discussions over the matter and while I do not agree with their arguments I do understand and I accept their point of view.

    They are not bigots but simply people with a different viewpoint on this issue. To label everyone who does not support SSM is bullshit. Yes, there are bigots and nut jobs who oppose SSM but there are also those who support SSM who are radical nut jobs. Both groups refuse to accept differing viewpoints and both groups are prepared to go to any lengths to prosecute their case. But these are individuals and do not reflect the majority of those on either side of the argument.

    Fringe groups from both sides of the upcoming debate will be guilty of extreme actions and statements and that is why Turnbull should forever be remembered as the PM who promoted hate and division simply to protect his own position.

    Cheers.

  17. Barney in Go Dau @ #170 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:45 am

    GG,

    The problem with the way you engage on this issue is that you prefer to play word games rather than contributing anything of substance to the debate.

    Is that because you have nothing of substance to contribute and you just wish to obstruct the debate?

    Yes, well that’s your opinion and you are welcome to it.

    However, would you please advise how the abuse directed towards me just this morning advances the debate or anyone’s cause.

  18. Voice Endeavour @ #173 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:49 am

    @ GG – Ok, from fundamentals so you can see where you went wrong.

    You have a right to do anything that does not have any negative consequences on anyone else.

    Butterfly effect aside, you are not effected by two people getting married, regardless of their genitalia.

    Therefore, the people getting married have an inalienable right to do so.

    Therefore, your expressing hatred for them for wanting to do so is bigotry. It is an action that does have negative consequences on many people.

    My calling you out on your bigotry is therefore justified, and is therefore not bigotry. This is not a symmetrical situation.

    And, the dish ran away with the spoon!

  19. frednk @ #172 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:47 am


    Greensborough Growler
    ..
    Like it or not, I have never worried about what consenting adults do in the bedroom.

    So why do you care if the call their relationship a a marriage?

    So now you’ve stripped out the being anti SSM is being homophobic from your argument, you are now able to go back and read my earlier contributions from monday.

    Well done!

  20. Doyley

    Those that oppose marriage equality are either ignorant and will change minds with education or bigots.

    The argument against is a bigoted argument. In the case of GG he has no excuse because just like Abbott he has been exposed to why its equality.

    He refuses to see this and instead just wants to keep a whole class of people as second class citizens. Thats the definition of bigotry.

    I will not give respect to bigoted arguments. I will not give respect to bigots who keep denying evidence. Thats different from people being ignorant and changing minds.

  21. I’m really trying to be helpful and patient with you GG. If you aren’t going to respect that I am perfectly happy just to disregard you, as I have been disregarding the other homophobes who have tried to tell me I am less than them.

  22. guytaur @ #171 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:46 am

    P1

    You don’t understand the history of gay rights. Gays tried the be polite approach with the bigots like Fred Nile and Lyle Shelton. It got them nowhere.

    In the US they tried the polite approach. Each time it failed. It actually took a riot to get rights on the agenda.

    So no gay person is going to fall for the be respectful to the bigots argument.

    So you’re asking for special status.

    You being self righteous, hectoring and abusive and everyone else having to cop it because you are ‘special” is just not going to cut it in this debate.

    But, don’t get all pouty when it comes back in spades, comrade.

  23. I thought the plan was to negotiate with the crossbench, saying they didn’t give it enough effort last time?

    Have they been negotiating without me noticing, or by negotiate do they mean “vote for the plebiscite or we’ll give you then even worse postal plebiscite”

    Pass, and lets see how the postal goes in court.

  24. GG

    Calling you a moron is abuse. Calling you a bigot and homophobe is just an accurate description from your history of posts and denial of evidence. This puts you in the same category as Fred Nile and Lyle Shelton.

    Don’t want to be called a bigot. Stop being a bigot.

  25. Voice Endeavour @ #181 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:57 am

    I’m really trying to be helpful and patient with you GG. If you aren’t going to respect that I am perfectly happy just to disregard you, as I have been disregarding the other homophobes who have tried to tell me I am less than them.

    I can respect your respect when I actually see it.

    At the moment all I see is a condescending prat!

  26. @ GG – you really don’t get it.

    If I say, “all ______ should be killed”

    and you say “VE, that’s horrible”

    I don’t get to respond and say “how dare you call me horrible”, because I was being horrible.

    You are being bigoted. Guytaur calling you a bigot is a fair and accurate representation. Want to not be called a bigot? Stop being bigoted.

  27. @ GG – one of us wrote a carefully thought out paragraph or two explaining their position on why gays are people too, and should be treated with respect.

    The other one of us wrote “and this dish ran away with the spoon”

    Can you please identify the condescending prat in this situation?

  28. [Greensborough Growler
    Barney in Go Dau @ #170 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:45 am

    GG,

    The problem with the way you engage on this issue is that you prefer to play word games rather than contributing anything of substance to the debate.

    Is that because you have nothing of substance to contribute and you just wish to obstruct the debate?

    Yes, well that’s your opinion and you are welcome to it.

    However, would you please advise how the abuse directed towards me just this morning advances the debate or anyone’s cause.]

    I haven’t seen any abuse.

    What I have seen is people making justifiable interpretations of you based on your responses on the issue.

    If you don’t like those interpretations maybe you need to look at what you are saying and how it can be interpreted in that way.

  29. guytaur @ #186 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 10:01 am

    GG

    Calling you a moron is abuse. Calling you a bigot and homophobe is just an accurate description from your history of posts and denial of evidence. This puts you in the same category as Fred Nile and Lyle Shelton.

    Don’t want to be called a bigot. Stop being a bigot.

    Yes the whole pro SSM push is about re-defining the word marriage to suit yourself.

    Now, you want to re-define the word abuse to protect your obnoxious behaviour.

    Can’t say I’m surprised.

  30. We Aussies tend to react with horror that people in America cannot get health care because we believe in this country it is a fundamental right for all.

    Am I correct?

    Well this is like my reaction to those who feel some Australians should be denied the fundamental right to marry their partners.

    I am aghast that any sensible person can deny a right – especially a right that HAS NO BEARING ON ANYONE ELSE’S same right.

  31. GG

    There it is. You again deny equality for a whole class of people. Thats the dictionary definition of bigot.

    Stop doing that and I will stop calling you a bigot.

  32. “Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says that if the plebiscite is accepted by the Senate, then the Government would not fund the yes and no campaigns as initially planned.”

    Makes sense. The churches are a hell of a lot richer than the gays. No sense muddying the waters by allowing both sides to make their case…

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