YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 39
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  2. guytaur @ #82 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 8:53 am

    GG

    You are one of the zealots. You do not want to have equality. You deny its even a thing.

    Please, don’t verbal me. it’s just another way to abuse someone who disagrees with you.

    I have always accepted that Equality exists.

    Marriage Equality is just the connection of two words to generate a meaningless marketing concept.

  7. c@t

    And don’t forget that Seth Rich was killed by Clinton Cos you know it somehow stopped Clinton’s emails being leaked. And Hillary Clinton was also running a pedo ring from a Pizza Restaurant.
    Clinton is the devil. Trump not so much.

  11. GG

    As a denier of equality against all evidence as Beyond Blue the AMA and other health organisation have presented I wil call all who oppose equality for gay people in being able to marry the bigots and the bullies they are.

  14. victoria @ #107 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:03 am

    c@t

    And don’t forget that Seth Rich was killed by Clinton Cos you know it somehow stopped Clinton’s emails being leaked. And Hillary Clinton was also running a pedo ring from a Pizza Restaurant.
    Clinton is the devil. Trump not so much.

    Yeah, the disinformationists are good. They’ve got Seymour Hersh hoodwinked!

  22. Boerwar @ #113 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:06 am

    So, suppose it does come to a postal vote, should one abstain?

    I won’t be because I want the result to send a loud and clear message to the bigots and Conservative Christians in our parliament and in our nation that we who support Marriage Equality are in the vast majority. Then let the Coalition government of the craven Malcolm Turnbull deal with the fallout from that.

  23. BW

    ‘So, suppose it does come to a postal vote, should one abstain?’

    I believe we should return an invalid paper. Failing to respond will look like we just don’t care enough. A high invalidity response cannot be ignored, especially as this is a non-compulsory survey.

  25. GG

    Yeah do the denigration. Show your homophobic true colours because gay people want the equality and dignity they deserve.

    Bigots like you are good at that.

    You lose the fact based argument its straight to the denigration and claiming oh dear those gays are calling me a bigot.

    See the definition. It fits you to a tee.

    One who is strongly partial to one’s own group, religion, race, or politics and is intolerant of those who differ.
    [French, excessively religious person, religiously intolerant person, from Old French, Norman person, excessively religious person, of unknown origin.]
    Word History: The ultimate origin of the word bigot is unknown. When bigot first appears in Old French, it is as an insulting term for a Norman. A colorful story is often told about the origin of the term with Rollo, the pagan Viking conqueror who received Normandy as a fief from Charles III of France in 911. Rollo converted to Christianity for the occasion, but it is said that he refused to complete his oath of fealty to the king by kissing the king’s feet and said Ne se bi got, “Never, by God!” in a mishmash of Old French and a Germanic language. This bi got then became a term of abuse for the Normans. This story is certainly false, but some scholars have proposed that Old French bigot did indeed originate as a reference to be Gode!—the Old and early Middle English equivalent of Modern English by God!, perhaps as a phrase that some Normans picked up in their English possessions in England and then used back in France. Later, in the 1400s, the French word bigot appears as a term of abuse for a person who is excessively religious. It is not clear, however, that this word bigot, “excessively religious person,” is in fact the direct descendant of the Old French slur that was applied to the Normans. Rather, this bigot may come directly from Middle English bi God, “by God,” or an equivalent phrase in one of the Germanic relatives of English such as German bei Gott or Dutch bij God. But even this is uncertain. In any case, English borrowed bigot from French with the sense “religious hypocrite” in the early 17th century. In English, the term also came to be applied to persons who hold stubbornly to any system of beliefs, and by extension, persons who are intolerant of those that differ from them in any way.

  26. BW

    I want to not vote in protest at having peoples right farmed out like this but it would cause more damage by not voting.

  30. “…. 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament”

    soooooo.. 80% support for a decision by parliament then?

  31. guytaur @ #128 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:11 am

    GG

    Yeah do the denigration. Show your homophobic true colours because gay people want the equality and dignity they deserve.

    Bigots like you are good at that.

    You lose the fact based argument its straight to the denigration and claiming oh dear those gays are calling me a bigot.

    See the definition. It fits you to a tee.

    One who is strongly partial to one’s own group, religion, race, or politics and is intolerant of those who differ.
    [French, excessively religious person, religiously intolerant person, from Old French, Norman person, excessively religious person, of unknown origin.]
    Word History: The ultimate origin of the word bigot is unknown. When bigot first appears in Old French, it is as an insulting term for a Norman. A colorful story is often told about the origin of the term with Rollo, the pagan Viking conqueror who received Normandy as a fief from Charles III of France in 911. Rollo converted to Christianity for the occasion, but it is said that he refused to complete his oath of fealty to the king by kissing the king’s feet and said Ne se bi got, “Never, by God!” in a mishmash of Old French and a Germanic language. This bi got then became a term of abuse for the Normans. This story is certainly false, but some scholars have proposed that Old French bigot did indeed originate as a reference to be Gode!—the Old and early Middle English equivalent of Modern English by God!, perhaps as a phrase that some Normans picked up in their English possessions in England and then used back in France. Later, in the 1400s, the French word bigot appears as a term of abuse for a person who is excessively religious. It is not clear, however, that this word bigot, “excessively religious person,” is in fact the direct descendant of the Old French slur that was applied to the Normans. Rather, this bigot may come directly from Middle English bi God, “by God,” or an equivalent phrase in one of the Germanic relatives of English such as German bei Gott or Dutch bij God. But even this is uncertain. In any case, English borrowed bigot from French with the sense “religious hypocrite” in the early 17th century. In English, the term also came to be applied to persons who hold stubbornly to any system of beliefs, and by extension, persons who are intolerant of those that differ from them in any way.

    If name calling and abuse is all you’ve got, you ain’t got much have you?

  32. BW

    I would say yes vote. I understand the boycott reflex. However that means you are not counted at all.

    However its a 50/50 decision based on what is most effective tactics. Not the actual issue.

    Part of the reason the PP is so flawed.

  33. We know that there are around a million voters who are either not registered or registered at the wrong address. We also know that this million disproportionately represents young people. We can guess that young people are disproportionately likely to abstain or even not to ‘get’ snail mail.

    Why give the sky fairy mob a ‘win’ by engaging at all?

  34. GG

    Its you backing the abuse campaign.

    You are with the bigots denying equality. As that definition shows. Time to accept the inevitable and get over it. You are trying to deny equality to a whole class of people.

  36. Xenophon supports referral of Roberts to HC on elligibility. Appears Hinch, Lambie and Leyonhelm do as well. Just need Labor now.

  37. Boerwar @ #135 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 9:15 am

    We know that there are around a million voters who are either not registered or registered at the wrong address. We also know that this million disproportionately represents young people. We can guess that young people are disproportionately likely to abstain or even not to ‘get’ snail mail.

    Why give the sky fairy mob a ‘win’ by engaging at all?

    Because you give them a bigger win by abstaining from the vote. They WILL take the result as gospel if it is in their favour.

  38. Let’s see. Assuming there’s no campaign to abstain;

    Support for ME is roughly 70% in the population. Standard turnout is ~50%. Pro-groups will generally be under-represented by about 1/3 (a 0.67 X Multiplier), No groups will be overrepresented by about x1.3.
    The remaining 15% should split around the level of the general population, which is 10.5% / 4.5%.

    That ends up at 57.4 Yes to 43.5 No. That’s still positive but much closer than it should be of it was representative. .

    As a result I wouldn’t recommend abstaining unless there’s a strong and we’ll organised campaign to do so, you’d need to drive the vote down a lot to make it clear it was a protest and you risk making it look like a legitimate no vote of you fail

  39. BW

    I understand that thinking. Thats the boycott point. However when voting it rarely works. You just give more excuse for the no people to claim see told you so.

    There are two court challenges and thats the route of denial that should be pursued and a big get out the vote campaign if they fail.

  40. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 1h1 hour ago

    Border force doctor knew of Manus refugees deteriorating health before death. Shameful inhumanity; criminal neglect.

  41. Marriage Equality is just the connection of two words to generate a meaningless marketing concept.

    As said by someone for whom marriage is a right and who apparently, for some reason yet to be disclosed, wants to deny that right to others based solely on their sexuality.

  42. Just to provide some context for people saying “postal votes are rigged in favor of old people.”

    “All age groups also showed majority support for marriage equality with younger voters – 90 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds – favouring a change. Of older voters aged 55 years and over, 56 per cent supported change, compared to 32 per cent of older voters opposing it.”

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-majority-of-voters-would-say-yes-in-gay-marriage-plebiscite-20160701-gpwg3z

    I don’t think a boycott is advisable. Having gone through the harm and the cost of the campaign, we might as well take the rewards.

  47. I could again go on with a long screed about Brian Trumble. But Birmingham has repeated what I think is my most concise encapsulation of just what a low thing he is.

    Namely – Tony Abbott was a better PM.

  48. What proportion of people who tell the pollsters that they support a plebiscite think that it will be binding? I would have thought a very large number. They would get a bit of a shock when told it was just an opinion poll.

  49. DTT

    They are both bad. Pence will not be President. He is in Russia up to his neck. He was chairman of the transition team. That puts him in bed with Flynn.

    Bye bye.

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