YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. I hope this is not another Iraq war in the making , ie the US (and us) going to war with another country based on faulty intel.

    North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment.

    The analysis, completed last month by the Defense Intelligence Agency, comes on the heels of another intelligence assessment that sharply raises the official estimate for the total number of bombs in the communist country’s atomic arsenal. The United States calculated last month that up to 60 nuclear weapons are now controlled by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Some independent experts think the number of bombs is much smaller.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_usnkorea-1212p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.3bb380080af7

  4. ‘None of these people spoke up against their priests raping children.
    Yet they are so vehemently against two people in love getting married.
    I do not understand their moral values.’

    Simple. They don’t have any.

  6. Poroti

    I was referring to you.

    I don’t know what you have been observing, but I am observing Trump’s actions and words together with his band of merry followers in real time. I have listened to his proxy Sean Hannity do his bidding on his behalf re Seth Rich. And Mr Hersch says he heard this makes it true, suggests to me that you are well and truly gone down the rabbit hole.
    You are entitled to believe Trump and Putin are to be trusted. I Do not

  7. Fess

    Yes. All that awfulness we saw in the US is about to be repeated here. Tasmanian GLBTI people are getting a double whammy after their campaign to be legal.

  9. To add to the morning’s big read, here’s cud chewer’s link from last night, previous thread, to the excellent piece by Paul Mason on the USA after Trump and in the hands of Pence and the Koch’s billionaires dark forces.

    Teaser:

    In fact, there are two distinct but overlapping rightwing projects in the US. One, most clearly associated with the Koch brothers, is best described by its adopted euphemism: “income defence”. It sees every dollar of the US’s $19tn debt as a future claim on the profits of private enterprise; it wants low taxation and – as Trump backer Robert Mercer is once reported to have said – a state “shrunken down to the size of a pinhead”. Above all, it wants the removal of regulations on big business, including the minimum wage, which denies the poorest people in America the “opportunity for earned success”, in the words of the Kochs’ top strategist

    He doesn’t go onto to say that the only way to control a society in that situation is by force, something the USA is already well set up for.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/07/trump-out-in-year-usa-problems-just-beginning-paul-mason

  10. Howard puts in his 2 bobs worth on the plebiscite (Labor Bad) and why he changed the law. There was ” a real threat in 2004″….

    Google trick for link.

    Mr Howard said this was done so that couples in same sex relationships who married overseas could not use the courts to create a precedent which would legalise the change in Australia.

    “What we didn’t want to happen in 2004 was for the courts to start adjudicating on the definition of marriage because that was a real threat in 2004 because some people who had contracted same sex marriages in another country had the capacity to bring their issues before courts in Australia,” he said.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/john-howard-defends-malcolm-turnbull-on-samesex-plebiscite/news-story/c8af28fc2bf4bca6babe3331caf7963d

  12. PinkNews: Ex-PM urges Australians to ‘vote no’ on same-sex marriage to ‘stop political correctness’ pinknews.co.uk/2017/08/08/ex-…

    The stupidity is getting international coverage

  13. GG

    Calling those who oppose marriage equality bigots is not hate its just recognition of what they are.

    Keep the religion out of our secular society.

    Its that simple.

  14. An interesting long read, by an American who expanded her horizons.

    We were all patriotic, but I can’t even conceive of what else we could have been, because our entire experience was domestic, interior, American. We went to church on Sundays, until church time was usurped by soccer games. I don’t remember a strong sense of civic engagement. Instead I had the feeling that people could take things from you if you didn’t stay vigilant. Our goals remained local: homecoming queen, state champs, a scholarship to Trenton State, barbecues in the backyard. The lone Asian kid in our class studied hard and went to Berkeley; the Indian went to Yale. Black people never came to Wall. The world was white, Christian; the world was us.

    We did not study world maps, because international geography, as a subject, had been phased out of many state curriculums long before. There was no sense of the US being one country on a planet of many countries. Even the Soviet Union seemed something more like the Death Star – flying overhead, ready to laser us to smithereens – than a country with people in it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/08/unlearning-the-myth-of-american-innocence

  17. Huh, Laming is acknowledging in that article that the postal plebiscite was selected despite (or more likely because) it being known to be biased. That’s not the kind of thing I’d commit to print if I thought I was a clever clogs conservative politician.

  19. GG

    Yeah calling out the hate is really denigrating you. No one is stopping you getting married. No one is forcing the Catholic Church to marry people of the same sex in the name of equality.

    You are part of a bigoted minority and I recommend you read Former Justice Michael Kirby on the subject.
    Media highlighted this line.

    The Plebiscite is just an excuse to denigrate LGBTI people

  20. “Calling those who oppose marriage equality bigots is not hate its just recognition of what they are.

    Keep the religion out of our secular society.”

    Yup. What he said. Call them out as bigots and bullies. Having an imaginary friend to take instruction from does not justify the crap they come out with.

  21. Victoria

    You put up that guff from Schindler about Seth Rich. I put up a differing opinion from someone with far more credibility that Schindler and that makes me a nut job ? Good grief.

  22. guytaur @ #72 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 8:44 am

    GG

    Yeah calling out the hate is really denigrating you. No one is stopping you getting married. No one is forcing the Catholic Church to marry people of the same sex in the name of equality.

    You are part of a bigoted minority and I recommend you read Former Justice Michael Kirby on the subject.
    Media highlighted this line.

    The Plebiscite is just an excuse to denigrate LGBTI people,/blockquote>

    Maybe you ought to quit while you are behind.

    All that personal abuse directed at me to prove you are not abusive.

    The zealots on both side of this debate are as bad as each other.

  23. Whilever the Coalition allows it’s MPs to ignore the result of any plebiscite and continue to vote the way they personally want to then I will continue to believe it is jerry-rigged to be both a delaying tactic and an artifice constructed to achieve the Conservative Christian’s desired outcome. It’s results will be as illegitimate as what the Conservative Christians believe Same Sex Marriage to be.

    When will these Conservative Christians acknowledge that THEIR definition of ‘Marriage’, based upon the tenets of their faith and the writings contained in one old book, are not THE definition of ‘Marriage’? They should just get over themselves. They should also get over the fact they cannot dictate to others what access others in society get to society’s institutions. Who do they think they are!?!

  31. “But why would a religion based on love generate any hate at all?”

    Because a number of its adherents have missed the point of it and are self serving bastards.

  34. zoomster @ #79 Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 8:51 am

    GG

    But why would a religion based on love generate any hate at all?

    Rhetorical questions will abound in this debate depending on one’s perspective and enthusiasm.

    I don’t think either side is off to a good start with concept of respecting those with an alternative point of view.

  36. Inequality is when you die in the back of a Divvie for unpaid parking fines as opposed to taking home a couple of million for allegedly overseeing an operation that allegedly broke the law 56,000 times on the way to booking a record profit.

    Inequality is when your mates forgive your alleged 56,000 crimes with with a slap on the wrist.

    Inequality is when you investigate yourself in relation to 56000 crimes that expedited terrorism and big time crooks hiding their crimes by way of money laundering.

  37. Great! North Korea, as a result of Trump’s intemperate and bellicose statement today, has just announced it is going to fire a missile at the US military base on Guam!

    So may I take this opportunity to tell daretotread to never show her sorry excuse for Trump support around here again! She doesn’t know shit from shinola!

  38. imacca

    …because a number of its adherents grew up being told they were Christian, accepted that, and never bothered to find out what Christianity was actually about.

    An awful lot of Christians think that God’s will and theirs are exactly the same thing.

    The New Testament is full of references to people who think they are following God whom God rejects – not just the Pharisees (who are very like the ‘born in the church’ types I’m referring to).

    Some experts translate the commandment about ‘using God’s name in vain’ to be not about blasphemy but about using God to justify your own actions and opinions.

  39. GG

    You are on the side of the bigots spewing hate speech because you want to deny equality, Keep GLBTI people second class because you “believe” in a man and woman marriage.

    Your belief does not come into it. We are a secular society

  44. GG

    Your concern about intolerance directed at opponents of marriage equality simply reinforces the need to avoid a formal plebiscite or opinion poll at all costs. It does no good for respect of people on either side.

  47. Lizzie

    Its about equality. If the arguments in the Conservative US Supreme Court did not convince you then I suggest you also have a look at form Justice Kirby speech.

    38 years of not being able to be married.

  49. C@

    Now, now – dtt would say that a nuclear war with North Korea and the US is better than the nuclear war that that evil Clinton would have started with Russia…

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