BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Essential Research’s recent results have driven an improvement in the Coalition’s poll trend position, most evidently in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a further narrowing in Labor’s lead this week on the back of weaker numbers from Essential Research, which provide the only new data point other than the Galaxy poll from Western Australia, which has no bearing on the national total. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one in Victoria and three in ever-volatile Queensland, but loses one in Western Australia courtesy of Galaxy. Labor’s relative softness in Victoria, where a swing is actually now recorded in favour of the Coalition, was noted by me yesterday in an article for Crikey. This was based on calculations made before the latest numbers were added, which have caused Labor’s two-party total there to weaken still further – no doubt a tad excessively. I’m also not entirely confident about the extent to which the Greens are recorded as having fallen, since the trendline has dipped below any of the individual data points, which sometimes happens when there’s a sudden change. In other words, they’re down, but probably not by quite that much. No new results for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

955 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  3. ratsak @ #796 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 1:21 pm

    confessions @ #781 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:48 pm

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 51m51 minutes ago
    I’m sick & tired of hearing dip shits who already have the right to marry & can’t think outside the square say SSM is not an important issue

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 44m44 minutes ago
    These are the same dip shits who 50 years ago would have thought giving Indigenous people voting rights wasn’t important either…

    PVO might be a rusted on Lib, but I think he at least has the decency to hate himself for it.

    ratsack, PvO was an urban neighbour of mine. He’s rational, informed, very socially liberal, and very likeable.

  6. CTar1 @ #804 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    bemused

    to individual addresses to find out what is currently planned.

    I’m shown as not planned yet.

    OK, Melbourne seems to be pretty well planned out – I didn’t see any obvious gaps.
    The only thing missing was some areas doomed to FTTN were not told what speed they were supposed to get.

  7. PhoenixRed:

    I liked his reference to the Turnbull-Trump phone call: ‘at this point the Australian PM said “now give the phone to mummy”.’

  8. Desert Qlder
    4 hours of posts lost today.

    Try sorting by oldest then newest, if you normally sort by newest. Otherwise, t’other way round.

    The missing posts appear for me using that system.

  9. For those who missed it.

    SenatorMRoberts: @Lateral_Events @ProfBrianCox What about we extend the event and let @ProfBrianCox & I debate?

    Brian can have unlimited ’Phone A Friend’ & ‘Ask The Audience’ lifelines

    ProfBrianCox: Much as I would like to help out a fellow Brit, I don’t think I’ll bother. twitter.com/SenatorMRobert…

  10. confessions

    PhoenixRed:

    I liked his reference to the Turnbull-Trump phone call: ‘at this point the Australian PM said “now give the phone to mummy”.’

    …………… and “if the White House was a dump it would be full of rats and leaks – oh heck “

  11. ratsak

    After seeing that tweet and his 30 second interview with Freedom Boy a day or so ago PvO looks like he has reached breaking point when it comes to “smiling politely” when fed shite by the government.

  13. PvO frequently takes a stick to the Liberals in his Saturday columns. He’s done so on the party’s attitude towards women, marriage equality, immigration policy, economic populism and Abbott’s whiteanting all within the past couple of months from memory.

  14. PvO is more progressive than most of the Liberals. He may not be a party member and that allows him to openly criticize the party.

  15. AnneFrankCenter: Nazis found Anne Frank on August 4, 1944. In 1941, U.S. denied entrance to Frank family. Reasons refugees hear now. #NeverAgain to anyone.

  16. and yet he’s a rusted on Lib.

    When Obeid was running NSW I voted Liberal. I felt disgusted at myself, but not nearly as much as if I’d stuck with a bunch of crooks. We needed a damn good thrashing to clean out the filth and I did my small part.

    When PVO comes out and clearly states that Shorten Labor is the only rational option for this country I’ll reassess. Until then talk is cheap. I despise the rational, informed, liberal enablers of the loons and goons we have running this shit show more than the loons and goons themselves. He’s taken the first steps. Good. Now he needs to finish the job

  18. ratsak:

    I’ve never heard him say how he votes each election. For all we know he could be voting independent or whatever while the Libs keep showing their crazy.

  21. ratsak @ #816 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 1:57 pm

    and yet he’s a rusted on Lib.

    When Obeid was running NSW I voted Liberal. I felt disgusted at myself, but not nearly as much as if I’d stuck with a bunch of crooks. We needed a damn good thrashing to clean out the filth and I did my small part.

    When PVO comes out and clearly states that Shorten Labor is the only rational option for this country I’ll reassess. Until then talk is cheap. I despise the rational, informed, liberal enablers of the loons and goons we have running this shit show more than the loons and goons themselves. He’s taken the first steps. Good. Now he needs to finish the job

    You’re right.

    These handwringing Libs all ways find a way to rationalise returning to the fold when an election is actually held!


  23. BK
    I have just searched out where the fixed wireless tower will be situated and it seems it will be 1 km away with line of sight.

    I have fixed wireless, I am five km away from the tower with no obvious line of sight and I have very good reception and 25/5 nominal speed, usually 20/4.5 measured atm.

    The critical thing is how many people they put on the same tower. Ours has just been upgraded, it was more like 15/4 before that.

  24. I have found yet another excellent Danish crime series on SBS on Demand.
    “Below the Ground”..The Danes do such a good job with dramas!

  28. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sally-mcmanus-ratchets-up-campaign-against-racist-workforthedole-program-20170803-gxookm.html

    A $1.5 billion work-for-the-dole program that overwhelmingly targets Indigenous communities has been labelled racist by Australian Council of Trade Unions secretary Sally McManus, with the prominent unionist arguing the government’s policy denies Aboriginal people rights enjoyed by other Australians.

    In a speech to the Garma Festival on Sunday, Ms McManus will ramp up a union campaign against the Community Development Program, which covers approximately 37,000 mostly Indigenous Australians. While the ACTU has long been hostile to the CDP, the speech marks the union leader’s highest-profile and clearest attack on the program since she was elected in March.

    “The bare-faced discrimination of the Community Development Program is a stark reminder that systemic racism endures,” Ms McManus will tell an audience at the high-powered Indigenous event in the Northern Territory, also attended by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and prominent Aboriginal figures.

    “Unlike every other ‘work-for-the-dole’ program or the $4 per hour internships the Turnbull government has introduced for young unemployed people, the CDP is compulsory. It is important to remind the rest of Australia of this – we have a system in our country where we make working for social support when unemployed compulsory for some Australians and not others.”

  32. At Garma, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten have also been pressed on the Referendum Council’s recommendations on constitutional change. The Opposition Leader has backed a constitutionally-enshrined “Voice to Parliament” while the Prime Minister has expressed caution about moving too quickly with ambitious proposals.

    Turnbull is terrified of actually moving on anything. Even snails speed (comparatively) towards an object.

  33. Being somewhat a Luddite on this issue, I’ve been following the NBN discussion on here with interest as I am about to have it installed (or so I’ve been told). My internet currently comes via Foxtel cable and my internet speed is around the 35 mbs mark and with which I am quite happy. My ISP is Telstra. Have any bludgers been connected this way and has there service been compromised or reduced?

  37. I reckon some of the questions on that ‘ordinary’ thingy were odd, such as the one about English ancestry. Given the influx of Irish, Greek, Italian, etc., the numbers of people with at least one parent born overseas, it seems quite pointless as a measure of what’s ordinary.

  38. enjaybee
    Sorry, can’t help. One of the reasons we moved a few years ago to this area, was that it had proper Labor weight FTTP.

  39. Monica Lynagh @ #835 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 3:55 pm

    Right
    Holds mouth correctly to get back to newest comments, hopefully.

    Do you have the C+ add-on? I find it good because you can have the messages in the traditional oldest to newest order, with pages, and if you hit “load more” they just add onto the thread in the expected order. However hitting refresh seems to send you back to message #1.

  40. frednk @ #625 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 5:49 am


    grimace
    ..
    or being in any way prevented from moving around the opposite side of the airport to the main terminals.

    The power of the high vis vest; fork lifts float over you ( they must, the way safety officers carry on) and you become invisible to all security.

    Quite ridiculously, on a different project but in the same state, I was hassled by someone from security for wearing the standard high viz colours for working on a railway line in another state*, when I should have been wearing a different colour high viz because I was at a sea port in this other state. There was no mention made of my Maritime Security Identification card or questions about why I was wandering around where I was.

    * It’s always stuck with me that this security guard had sufficient knowledge of high viz requirements that he knew the high viz colour scheme practices of another state and industry.

  41. It’s Time
    Yep, I’ve got the C+ add-on. It seems if I follow a link some where, I get flung back in time and the only way I’ve found to get back to the newest comments.
    Oddly, when I tried “load more”, I got more older comments, but not the newest.
    Anyway, posting something, even if inane, seems to work.

  42. don @ #627 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 6:07 am

    frednk: The power of the high vis vest; fork lifts float over you ( they must, the way safety officers carry on) and you become invisible to all security.

    Working in a secondary school, after more than thirty years in the same place, trusted member of staff, it always amused me that the powers that be only gave you the keys you absolutely had to have, but gave out the complete set of master keys to a cleaner who was starting for the first time on Monday.

    It amuses me that once you have got access to a supposedly high-security area an assumption kicks in that you are entitled to be there and your presence won’t be questioned

  43. Monica L:

    The trick to opening links now is to right click and select open in a new tab. That way you don’t have to worry about coming back to PB.

  45. citizen @ #648 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 7:27 am

    For quite a while the Commonwealth Bank was hassling people depositing money to use the Deposit ATMs – apparently the branch manager received a bonus for steering people away from the tellers.

    Since the latest scandal over money laundering erupted (shonks depositing huge sums in the ATMs to evade scrutiny by the tellers), I have noticed this practice has generally ceased when I visit the bank.

    Hopefully the ordinary staff will not suffer because of the actions of the bank’s CEO and directors.

    I have a friend who works in internal audit at CBA, haven’t seen much of him lately has he’s been working some extremely long hours.

  47. My local Coles has removed the customer check out. It’s all done by check out staff now. I assume that they were getting ripped off more than the cost of the staff?

  48. At 35 Mbps per second on HFC , you should

    roughly maintain what you have in all areas if they use the HFC (maybe with a bump, Telstra actually artificially caps HFC at ~35 Mbps unless you pay them an extra twenny a month).

    roughly maintain what you have download wise on a FTTN connected and get significantly improved upload. You could drop down to 2/3rds your speed if you’re in a rotten position (and won’t have any recourse) anything below that allows you some recourse (NBN is obligated to provide at least 25 Mbps).

    FTTC/B/P should all see significant increases available on both fronts.

Comments are closed.

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