BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Essential Research’s recent results have driven an improvement in the Coalition’s poll trend position, most evidently in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a further narrowing in Labor’s lead this week on the back of weaker numbers from Essential Research, which provide the only new data point other than the Galaxy poll from Western Australia, which has no bearing on the national total. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one in Victoria and three in ever-volatile Queensland, but loses one in Western Australia courtesy of Galaxy. Labor’s relative softness in Victoria, where a swing is actually now recorded in favour of the Coalition, was noted by me yesterday in an article for Crikey. This was based on calculations made before the latest numbers were added, which have caused Labor’s two-party total there to weaken still further – no doubt a tad excessively. I’m also not entirely confident about the extent to which the Greens are recorded as having fallen, since the trendline has dipped below any of the individual data points, which sometimes happens when there’s a sudden change. In other words, they’re down, but probably not by quite that much. No new results for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

955 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. This commonwealth bank story is huge. 53 thousand offences. The maximum penalty for each is up to $18 million. What if the fines are larger than what the bank is worth? Would it automatically become a public asset? Would that put the country into surplus? What excuse will Turnbull make for squirming out of a Royal commission in light of this?

  2. What excuse will Turnbull make for squirming out of a Royal commission in light of this?

    Unless he can implicate a union, Bill Shorten or any other Labor figure, then it’s all just a minor slip up in procedure by a low level employee. No worries.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. In breaking news Mueller has just announced the formation of a Grand Jury on the Russia probe.

    Latika Bourke gives us the lowdown on THAT telephone conversation between Trump and Turnbull. Ouch!
    A decade on from the start of the global financial crisis, voters think stimulus was money well spent, despite attacks over its size and claims of waste.
    Kate McClymont returns to the ICAC story and looks at n=what might be ahead for the star turns.
    Sean Nichols writes that the ICAC findings should cause Turnbull to act on political donations. Failure to do so can only add to the suspicion that our federal political leaders are deliberately putting their own interests ahead of those of the Australian people.
    John Hewson is right on the money here as he homes in on the internecine problems the Coalition has with the SSM issue.
    Laura Tingle lets fly on our “useless bunch of indulgent politicians”. Google.
    A group of conservative Labor MPs are threatening to blow up any last-ditch attempt by Liberal rebels to legalise same-sex marriage, with the numbers in both chambers hanging by a thread.
    Michael Koziol on the “emergency meeting” that Turnbull has called for Monday. He reports that constitutional expert George Williams has also warned a postal vote “could explode in the government’s face” if not underpinned by legislation.

  4. Section 3 . . .

    Mark Kenny tells us that Turnbull has thrown the switch to brow-beating, calling in the nation’s biggest electricity retailers for face-to-face talks next Wednesday in a bid to curb galloping household and business electricity bills, and improve their market sensitivity.
    Adele Ferguson unloads on the latest CBA shocking allegations. She says that despite a series of parliamentary and industry inquiries and a series of mea culpas of sorts by various bank bosses, it seems mistrust is increasing and the scandals keep coming. Royal Commission anyone?
    Former Australian Statistician Bill McLennan says the Independent Assurance Panel’s ‘Report on the Quality of 2106 Census Data’ is the flawed outcome of a sloppy process, which glosses over significant failures by the ABS.,10571
    A Sydney-born terrorism plot to place a bomb on a passenger plane was dangerously close to being carried out before it was unwittingly thwarted at an airline check-in counter.
    How many pollies does it take to open a Perth freeway extension?
    Another by-election in NSW as Robbo announces he’ll be quitting next month.
    Leading retailers of Australian broadband ISP services say the NBN pricing model is broken, making high-speed internet connections too expensive for most domestic customers.,10570
    The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank writes that the way Trump plays golf tells us a lot about the man.

  5. Section 5 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    More from the Black Economy Taskforce as it is explained to them that certain ethnic groups are predisposed to dealing in cash.
    In Australia, 800 people die annually of an opioid overdose. How can patients be sure if they are right in taking them? Here’s what you should know.

    Simon Letch in the US.

    Cathy Wilcox has Turnbull receiving Abbott’s postal vote.

    David Rowe on Arfur’s escape from ICAC. And have a look at how he’s drawn Tripodi.

    Mark David gets to the heart of Turnbull’s “emergency”.

  6. Greetings from wintry Wales bludgers.

    It seems the leak of the refugee transcript has been timed to damage Brian Trumble as much as posslble going into the early meeting to debate the SSM issue, although the purpose now seems to be to bring about a spill motion asap in light of the Warringah crew stacking some branches in the last few weeks.
    What the RWNJ’s don’t seem to realize is that if they depose Brian, he might do a few destabilsing acts of his own. Eg cross the floor or withhold support in a no confidence motion or the like, remembering they only have the barest of majorities.

    Bill could be PM by the end of the week.

    Wouldn’t that be something.

  7. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    A ripper from David Pope on the nature of the SSM debate.

    Glen le Lievre on choice.

    Sean Leahy with the Palmer asset freeze.

    Andrew Dyson takes a gay wedding cake into the Coalition party room.
    Ron Tandberg with Trump’s new White House appointment.
    John Shakespeare contrasts Shorten’s and Turnbull’s situations at the moment.
    Mark Knight farewells Laurie Oakes.
    Jon Kudelka gives us Malcolm and the non-binding plebiscite.

  8. William
    Could you please tell me what I can do to prevent sections of the Dawn Patrol from going into moderation. I am limiting total text length and the number of links.

  9. Pathetic Trump Begged Mexico To Stop Telling The Press They Won’t Pay For The Wall

    Transcripts of Trump’s phone calls with Mexican President Peña Nieto reveal a liar who knew that Mexico would never pay for the wall but begged them to stop telling the press that they wouldn’t pay because it was damaging him politically.

    The phone calls show a man who is in way over his head, who keeps constructing new lies, as his old ones get exposed. Trump isn’t a strong president, who is going to make America great. He is a pathetic fraud, who is begging other countries not to tell the truth about him.

  10. Someone In The White House Leaked Trump’s Calls Because They Are Trying To Warn America

    Beneath all of the astonishing details in the leaked transcripts of Trump’s phone calls, there is a much larger point. Someone inside the White House was so concerned about these phone calls that they leaked them to inform the public.

    Leakers inside the White House aren’t leaking for fun. They are leaking because they believe that their country is being endangered by Donald Trump.

  11. Trump’s Russia Collusion Continues As President Uses Russian Talking Points To Attack Congress

    Donald Trump is continuing to collude with Russia by repeating the talking of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as he attacked the US Congress.

    Russian propaganda is coming straight out of the Oval Office, as the greatest threat to American democracy in the history of the country is coming from within.

  12. Cory Booker and Lindsey Graham Just Stopped Trump’s Plan To Fire Mueller Dead In Its Tracks

    Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have introduced new legislation that would put a check on Trump’s ability to fire the special counsel investigating the Russia scandal, Robert Mueller.

    Trump better think twice before he tries to put the wheels in motion to fire Mueller because Congress will unleash a world of hurt on the president if he engineers the removal of the special counsel.

  13. Trump White House Closer To Facing Criminal Charges As Mueller Impanels Grand Jury In DC

    The investigation into potential crimes committed by the President and campaign has expanded as a grand jury has been impaneled in Washington, D.C. as part of the Russia investigation.

    The Special Counsel is hot on Trump’s trail, and it seems like only a matter of time until the real story behind how Trump won the 2016 election is revealed.

  14. Lock Him Up: Robert Mueller Is Exploring Prosecuting Trump’s Financial Crimes With Russia

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller is following the money, and where it is leading him is to a potential prosecution of Trump for financial crimes with Russia.

    Trump is freaking out because Robert Mueller is getting closer to uncovering the secrets that could bring him down.

  15. phoenixRED @ #25 Friday, August 4th, 2017 – 4:29 am

    Pathetic Trump Begged Mexico To Stop Telling The Press They Won’t Pay For The Wall

    Transcripts of Trump’s phone calls with Mexican President Peña Nieto reveal a liar who knew that Mexico would never pay for the wall but begged them to stop telling the press that they wouldn’t pay because it was damaging him politically.

    The phone calls show a man who is in way over his head, who keeps constructing new lies, as his old ones get exposed. Trump isn’t a strong president, who is going to make America great. He is a pathetic fraud, who is begging other countries not to tell the truth about him.

    And Turnbull in his sell out of Australia, as is evident in his conversation, is different, how?

  16. Grand jury issues subpoenas connected to Trump Jr.’s 2016 Russia meeting: report

    Reuters is reporting that grand jury subpoenas have been issued in conjunction with a meeting in June of 2016 attended by President Donald Trump’s son Donald Jr., Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

    More on this story as it develops.

  17. Fire Hannity effort intensifies

    Efforts to get Fox News to fire commentator Sean Hannity have intensified in recent days, amid allegations that the network collaborated with the White House in promulgating a conspiracy theory that sought to cast blame on Democratic operatives for the 2016 murder of Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich, who was killed while walking home from a bar in Washington, D.C.

  18. Palmer Report‏ @PalmerReport ·

    WSJ: Mueller has impanelled Trump-Russia grand jury. Reuters: grand jury subpoenas in Jr-Russia mtg.

    That sound you hear is the shit hitting the fan

  19. Trump to Turnbull on asylum seekers , apparently a compliment: “you’re worse than me!”

    And Malcolm admits that they are being detained as exemplary punishment.


  20. Mueller Has Impaneled Grand Jury in Washington – 99.% of Grand Juries Hand Down Indictments

    Moments ago, we’ve learned, via a report from the Wall Street Journal, that special Counsel Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury in Washington DC in order to ramp up his investigation into the Trump campaign’s collusion with Russia, as well as other possible crimes.

    According to the WSJ, the grand jury has been impaneled for at least a few weeks,

  21. From the Koziol article on SSM
    “Liberal MPs have been summoned to Canberra on Monday afternoon for the special meeting, with a group of moderates expected to push for the party to dump the plebiscite policy altogether and adopt a free vote.

    Fairfax Media understands Mr Turnbull will take a “hands-off” position in the meeting, neither advocating a change of policy or the status quo, and will conduct a ballot if necessary.”

    So what does our Brian actually do apart from taking selfies and cutting freeway ribbons?

  22. In fact, Turnbull’s admission that he’d take a dodgy character off the USA’s hands in exchange for a Noble Winner who arrived in Australia by boat should be a scandal, but it won’t be.

  23. Good Morning

    News Breakfast highlighted the comment that Turnbull would prefer an ugly person by plane than a nobel prize winner by boat.

    Thats a pure gift to Labor. Exposing the racism behind the boats policy is a massive blow to the demonisation of refugees.

    The Washington Post has done what our media could not do. Our polices on immigration are from racism and are all about perception and nothing about the people involved.

    This puts into context Trump’s why do you discriminate against boats. Its not as stupid as it sounds. It is purely the perception not the people coming that the policy is about.


    In a major blow to the future of nuclear power in the United States, two South Carolina utilities said on Monday that they would abandon two unfinished nuclear reactors in the state, putting an end to a project that was once expected to showcase advanced nuclear technology but has since been plagued by delays and cost overruns.

    The two reactors, which have cost the utilities roughly $9 billion, remain less than 40 percent built. The cancellation means there are just two new nuclear units being built in the country — both in Georgia — while more than a dozen older nuclear plants are being retired in the face of low natural gas prices. Originally scheduled to come online by 2018, the V.C. Summer nuclear project in South Carolina had been plagued by disputes with regulators and numerous construction problems.

    This year, utility officials estimated that the reactors would not begin generating electricity before 2021 and could cost as much as $25 billion — more than twice the initial $11.5 billion estimate. The utilities also struggled with an energy landscape that had changed dramatically since the large reactors were proposed in 2007.

    Demand for electricity has plateaued nationwide as a result of major improvements in energy efficiency, weakening the case for massive new power plants. And a glut of cheap natural gas from the hydraulic fracturing boom has given states a low-cost energy alternative. Facing those pressures, the two owners of the project, South Carolina Electric & Gas and Santee Cooper, announced they would halt construction rather than saddle customers with additional costs.

  25. Steve

    The Greens are onto it. McKim was tweeting about it last night I am sure they will do a presser.

    I also expect Labor to do so too. Having Turnbull tell us that the people are less important then the PR is stunning.

    It confirms Professor Triggs comment on a government ideologically opposed to human rights. It confirms every word said about the management of our prison camps. It confirms why taxpayers are going to be on the hook for the compensation when the High Court confirms Australia is responsible for the AS in those camps.

    This undoes the Howard wedge. Its a huge change to the narrative. We might finally get some actual evidence based policy on refugees.

  26. rhysam: Trump/Turnbull call: PM says if a Nobel prize winner came by boat, he wouldn’t be allowed in. Trump doesn’t understand. Who does?

  27. NewtonMark: Hey Australia, just so you know: You repeatedly vote for people who admit to keeping political prisoners in concentration camps.

  28. The President: Does anybody know who these people are? Who are they? Where do they come from? Are they going to become the Boston bomber in five years? Or two years? Who are these people?

    Prime Minister Turnbull: Let me explain. We know exactly who they are. They have been on Nauru or Manus for over three years and the only reason we cannot let them into Australia is because of our commitment to not allow people to come by boat. Otherwise we would have let them in. If they had arrived by airplane and with a tourist visa then they would be here.

  29. GG

    Does the Trump Turnbull transcript destroy Howard’s refugee wedge?

    A question I think Labor has to seriously analyse. What do you think?

  30. Stuff I’ve seen this morning indicate the US may be moving more to an Australian style Immigration policy. So, no, Howard’s reputation for being right on AS will not diminish over the Turnbull/Trump fracas.

    The transcripts show that Turnbull is more interested in the fig leaf of looking to be doing something on AS and not about addressing the substantive issues of re-settling them.

  31. A really good read

    John Schindler’s Tweets
    Pinned Tweet
    John Schindler
    John Schindler @20committee

    Trump embraces Kremlin lies, weaponizing them to deceive the US public.

    Make Active Measures Great Again!

    White House Colludes With Fox News to Embrace Disinformation

  32. Hewson

    Turnbull’s first challenge is to start to deliver the leadership he promised, and the first stage of that is to re-establish unity, and an electorally significant purpose.

    The joint party room is the venue for a once-and-for all debate and binding secret ballot. Turnbull must demonstrate clear leadership by leading and controlling that debate.

    But the word is that Turnbull will take a neutral position, or a back seat, and let the discussion rage. Is the man on tranquillisers? He’s lost his cojones.

  33. GG

    I think thats the point. The substantive issues prove the Greens right about the LNP on refugees.

    I think that destroys the wedge. You can’t claim you are not pandering to racists when PR is more important than human rights.

    Such a contrast to Labor on this. Plus the Greens get to say told you so.

  34. With Sinodinos to advise him, no wonder Howard was considered such a smart operator. Arfur has managed to wriggle out of every possible situation where he might incur blame.

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