Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

Both major parties continue to perform poorly on the primary vote in Queensland state politics, leaving a looming election dependent on the mystery factor of minor party preferences.

The Sunday Mail today carries a poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which records Labor with a tenuous 51-49 lead on two-party preferred that depends heavily on a rather speculative projection of the flow of preferences. This is down from 52-48 at the last such poll three months ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down a point to 35%, the Liberal National Party is up two to 36% and One Nation is down two to 15%, with no result provided for the Greens (UPDATE: Steady on 7%). On personal ratings, Annastacia Palaszczuk has more than lost a spike she enjoyed in the previous poll, presumably as a result of Cyclone Debbie – her approval over three polls has progressed from 41% to 47% to 39%, while her disapproval has gone from 37% to 35% to 44%. Tim Nicholls is steady on 27% approval and down four on disapproval to 41%, and his deficit on preferred premier has narrowed from 48-28 to 42-30. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland”

  1. I am concerned about Qld state government. There seems to be a malaise,

    It might be the Adani thing which has dampened enthusiasm in the city and maybe planning stuff.

  2. My mantra in the last QLD election was ‘number every square and put LNP last.’ Now I don’t know how I am going to vote – too many vying for last position. Very disgruntled with the change of voting rules and decisions regarding Adani. Tell me again – what is the difference between Labor and Liberal at the state level?

  3. Kerryn

    Adani has certainly knocked the stuffing out of many branches . People just do not seem to be out and about much.

    In part the campaign methodology has changed but still.

  4. Kerryn should acknowledge Labor won’t be going ahead with another casino on the Gold Coast creating more development on the Spit. It’s a big decision and some locals will have to vote Labor if they don’t want further development on the Gold Coast. LNP are likely to approve the project if they get into government.

    Really difficult election for Labor, it’s a bit of an arm-wrestle- but One Nation vote sliding will give the major parties some hope. Because its so concentrated in the regions they still remain a threat for both parties. Election looks like a game of musical chairs and its too early at this stage to see where the seats will fall. Still a lot of undecided voters and soft One Nation voters available which makes it volatile and the campaign crucial. One Nation preferences will play a big role in some areas where seats will be decided.

  5. The PHON vote seems to still be partially a “general discontent” place holder since it’s still as leaky as fuck (it’s leaking votes to Labor at about 1 in 3 2PP despite being at least as Right wing as the LNP on almost everything ) even with its drop in share.

    The danger for Labor here is that PHON manages to get boots on the ground and preferences the LNP on its HTV cards, which could counter a significant part of that leak. But PHON stills seems fairly disorganised for the moment.

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