Sunday snippets

A whole bunch of preselection news, plus retrospective findings from an Australia Institute survey on the Rudd government’s handling of the global financial crisis.

Three bits of opinion polling news:

• As you can see in the post below this one, there is a poll of Queensland state voting intention in today’s Sunday Mail newspaper. This presumably means a result on federal voting intention from the same poll can be expected this evening.

• An in-house survey from The Australia Institute examines “public attitudes to the federal government’s handling of the global financial crisis, ten years on”. The Labor government of the time is remembered as having done a good job, with 57-24 breaking in favour of the proposition that “Australians should be proud of how its government handled the GFC”. Other findings are a 62-22 split in favour of the proposition that a recession would have unfolded without “large fiscal stimulus”; 48-31 considering borrowing to fund the stimulus was the right thing to do; 45-37 lining up against the proposition that it would have been better to go without stimulus to avoid further debt; and, more narrowly, 42-37 opposed to the notion that the fiscal stimulus policies were “poorly designed and excessive”.

• A ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on same-sex marriage, targeting six seats in Queensland and Western Australia with Coalition MPs with undeclared positions on the subject, finds support for same-sex marriage at over 50% in Hasluck, Moncrieff, Ryan, Swan and Tangney, and at 48% in Stirling with 42% opposed. Similar proportions of respondents favour a free vote being held in parliament “as soon as possible”.

And a whole bunch on preselection, where balls are already starting to roll ahead of a federal election still nearly two years away:

• Western Australia’s Liberal Party has confirmed Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Back. Brockman won 89 votes out of 131 at a vote of the party’s state council held on July 22, from a field that also included former state MPs Michael Sutherland and Mark Lewis.

• The New South Wales ALP’s Left faction has endorsed Tim Ayres, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, to take a factionally reserved Senate position presently occupied by Doug Cameron, who will not contest the next election. The Australian reports the ballot was boycotted by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, who were apparently angered by the AMWU’s lock on a seat that stands to be filled consecutively by three of the union’s leaders (George Campbell, Doug Cameron and now Tim Ayres).

Samantha Hutchison of The Australian reports that Michael Danby, Labor’s member for Melbourne Ports since 1998, is “facing pressure to bow out” at the next election. Labor has held the seat since 1906, but Danby was given a two-pronged scare at the last election, only narrowly edging the Greens by 24,340 votes to 23,387 to survive to the final count, and then emerging with a 1.4% margin over the Liberals, down from 2.2% in 2013. According to the report, Ari Suss, a Linfox executive and former staffer to Steve Bracks who shares Danby’s Jewish background (together with Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Melbourne is one of two seats in the country where over 10% of the population identifies as Jewish). The Greens have already preselected their candidate from 2016, Steph Hodgins-May, whom Danby placed last on his how-to-vote card after she pulled out of a debate organised by Zionism Victoria.

Katie Burgess of the Canberra Times reports preselection reforms in Labor’s Australian Capital Territory branch have been “criticised by the party’s right as a way for the left to gain control of a possible third federal seat”, which the territory stands to gain with the latest population-related entitlement determination. The changes have dispensed with requirements that members be branch members for at least 12 months and attend a certain number of meetings in a year to be eligible to vote in preselection ballots, which will reportedly triple the voter base. Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.

Sky News reports that John Ruddick, a prominent proponent of reforms to democratise the party’s preselection process, as endorsed a fortnight ago at a special party convention, will challenge Trent Zimmerman for preselection in his seat of North Sydney. Zimmerman is a moderate factional operative, and one of the Liberals’ four openly gay federal MPs.

• State upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi has announced she will seek preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, setting up a contest with Lee Rhiannon should she choose to nominate again, which is yet to be determined.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

541 comments on “Sunday snippets”

  1. Fess I wouldn’t say traveling. More like blundering along although there has been a moderate improvement from last year when it was organized chaos.

  2. confessions
    The Sydney Morning Herald
    37 mins ·
    Exclusive: Undecided voters have written Malcolm Turnbull off as a huge disappointment who’s been held back by his own party

    Eventually voters will come to understand that Turnbull is only another Lib.

  3. Ratsak and Briefly

    Not sure what point you are trying to make but frankly I find you disgusting.

    To make childish jokes about nuclear war OR Ebola is nothing short of loathsome.

    The deaths of people seem not to affect you at all.

    Briefly it is very well known that Israel via AIPAC lobbies hard and this often indeed among always in the US context means donations to election funds. This is not saying everyone colludes with Israel, but big donors be they Israeli homegrown will have significant influence. I imagine China is well into the mix too and possibly Germany. Not just Israel of course but anywhere where there are funds available for campaigns and where there is something US can give back in return

    Pork barreling is a major feature of the US system, be it farmers in the midwest or military suppliers in the North.

    Get over it and stop going all itsy witsy when anyone calls out on it especially Israel.

  4. Due to the lag effect on polls I think Newspoll will be 52-48 to Labor, along the lines of all the most recent results.

    As was also commented today on Insiders, Turnbull has adopted the ‘busywork’ paradigm. Be seen to be ‘doing things’. Taking charge, like a headmaster.

    I guess it will impress enough people to get him an extra point back.

  5. Things have been dire for the Libs since 2007 regardless of the fact they managed to win two elections, or more likely Labor managed to lose the two elections despite the Libs direness

  6. daretotread
    Ratsak and Briefly

    Not sure what point you are trying to make but frankly I find you disgusting.

    I think you’re a fraud. You always have been.

  7. DTT

    If Trump resigns or is impeached, Pence is also doubtful because it is very likely that, as head of the Trump transition team, he was told that Flynn was under investigation for contact with Russia. There’s a very good chance that Pence was warned about this before Flynn was appointed and lied about that prior knowledge.

    We all know that Pence is a slippery, lying, evangelical zealot. But that doesn’t change the fact that if Mueller finds Trump committed a crime, he should be removed. It is clearly in the best interests of the US, the world, world peace and the future of progressive democracies world wide.

    Sooner or later the full extent of this vast political/criminal conspiracy will be exposed for the world to see and Trump will resign or be impeached. As a consequence of this tawdry affair, Repugs, the GOP and the conservative media will be in disgrace for half a generation.

    So touch wood, if this eventuates, the Dems will win in 2020, have a handy majority in the House and Senate and set things straight in the US.

    And, no, Tim Kaine would have been better that any person within 100 miles of the Trump team.

    http://prospect.org/article/russiagate-keep-your-eye-pence

  8. dtt

    ‘If there is only one heart transplant surgeon in the country and you have him removed for some very good reason eg kiddyfiddling, you nevertheless ARE responsible for the deaths that will occur because there is no surgeon.’

    Absolute nonsense.

    The surgeon is responsible for his own removal because it is his own actions which have resulted in it.

    But seriously, no one with any moral compass at all needs this explained to them.

  9. daretotread @ #466 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:49 pm

    If there is only one heart transplant surgeon in the country and you have him removed for some very good reason eg kiddyfiddling, you nevertheless ARE responsible for the deaths that will occur because there is no surgeon.

    Wow! We have a new contender for ‘stupidest comment of the day’!

  10. Peter Love

    Actually there are a lot of people eg Seymour Hersh who is no fool saying that the whole russia gate thing is a beat up.

    Now I think there probably is slimy financial stuff with Flynn (possibly more Turkey than Russia) but proving collusion between trump and Putin re the election or election tampering etc will probably not be possible. in any case i rather doubt that a President elect talking with people in other states would be illegal in any case.

    After all once someone IS president – eg Kennedy or Roosevelt they will be doing deals all the time – some might see them as collusion, others being a statesman. Probably many did deals before and after the election. Think JFK. Can you seriously believe that his FATHER was not colliding with other nations at every point possible before the election and after. His deals with the mafia probably make Trump ;look like he stole a jellybean from the counter. In the case of Joe Kennedy he would have been colluding with Germany and Ireland against the UK.

    I think JFK was a very good President, but odds on he “bent the law”or his father did on his behalf before the election and after. If you follow the logic of Trump’s treatment Kennedy should have been turfed out.

    As I say – you cannot be selective in application of the law. If you go after trump for Russian ties then you need to go after others for ties with China, Germany Saudi or Israel. Similarly if you go after someone for shady dealing, then be sure that you go after your own side too if the offences are the same.

  11. This looks to be an analysis article, with the main Courier Mail QLD Galaxy federsl poll article yet to go online. I’ve copied in all the figures it has, which isn’t all of them.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/closer-but-no-cigar-for-team-turnbull/news-story/c3db90c8211d7391be92adeb947575b6

    Closer, but no cigar for Team Turnbull
    Dennis Atkins, The Courier-Mail
    in 2 hours

    NEITHER the Labor Party nor the Coalition can take too much comfort from the latest Galaxy poll, especially if they are pinning too many hopes on Queensland as the path to victory at the next election.

    While Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the LNP can take some solace in being in front in two-party preferred terms — on the back of a low 37 per cent primary share of support — they are still three points down on the result at last year’s election.

    This would mean a significant five-seat loss on a uniform spread of the swing, when the reality is the LNP cannot afford to lose seats anywhere. Realistically, the Coalition needs to look for gains that can be made from Labor.

    Labor, meanwhile, is also stuck at about where it was last year — the 32 per cent primary vote is just one point ahead of that result and within the margin of error.

    ……………..

    The air seems to be going out of One Nation’s popularity — falling from the 18 per cent high of early this year to a still significant but less impressive 12 per cent.

    This hasn’t benefited Labor or the LNP, with the support appearing to go to Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives, the breakaway Liberal right wing party formed less than a year ago.

  12. Apparently Putin’s actions are driven by his primary motivation – retaining absolute power in Russia.

    Democracy is his biggest threat, so his solution is to portray America as ‘equally bad’ as Russia – they say I’m corrupt, but they’re corrupt; they say I’m oppressive, but they’re oppressive; etc etc.

    If Putin can show that he is no different to any other head of state, that his government is no different to any other form of government, then, however bad he may be, the Russian people will believe there’s no point in trying to change.

  13. Player
    And we have a contender for the most obtuse post of the day.

    Logic is clearly not a straight of yours – pity because I sometime used to think that despite being as boring as all hell and going on and on and on about issues eg gas and census you occasionally made some good points. Perhaps they were someone elses’ since you seem not to have a capacity for logic

  14. dtt

    ‘ that Israel via AIPAC lobbies hard and this often indeed among always in the US context means donations to election fund..’

    If so, those accepting donations have committed a crime under the US electoral act, which prohibits foreign interference – including donations.

    So 99% of Congress – according to you – are committing a crime and should lose office.

  15. If there is only one heart transplant surgeon in the country and you have him removed for some very good reason eg kiddyfiddling, you nevertheless ARE responsible for the deaths that will occur because there is no surgeon.

    Yikes the stupid just gets piled upon the stupid with no filter whatsoever!

    One thing you can guarantee Donald Trump isn’t is a heart transplant surgeon, so why on earth you are invoking this eg is anyone’s guess. And from the comments left here, peeps don’t need to guess at what’s at the heart of your intentions.

  16. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-turnbull-widens-lead-over-shorten-as-primary-vote-falls/news-story/40af403449838b858a3038ca39d5845d

    The Australian
    9:35PM August 6, 2017
    David Crowe Political correspondent Canberra

    Labor has held its gains over the Coalition after two weeks of political debate over national security and tax reform, leading by 53 to 47 against the government in two-party terms for the sixth Newspoll survey in a row.

    Mr Turnbull has widened his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister to reach his strongest position so far this year, backed by 46 per cent of voters compared to 31 per cent who favour the Opposition Leader.

    The Prime Minister has also gained ground in voter satisfaction with his performance, posting his strongest results since early last year despite a week of Liberal infighting over same sex marriage and speculation of a challenge to his authority on the floor of parliament.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 37 to 36 per cent after a fortnight of big policies including a $4.1 billion tax hit on family trusts, a plan to enact four-year parliamentary terms and a vow to hold a plebiscite on a republic.

    The Coalition’s primary vote is unchanged at 36 per cent.

    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has suffered its second setback in consecutive Newspolls, with its primary vote slipping from 9 to 8 per cent amid questions over whether Queensland Senator Malcolm Roberts renounced his British citizenship in time to secure a valid election to the upper house.

    The Greens have increased their primary vote from 9 to 11 per cent, their strongest result since May last year.

    This is the sixth Newspoll in succession with a result of 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, a record that confirms the scale of the challenge facing the government in turning its fortunes around.

  17. Zoomster

    OK you have made a statement that as I understand it goes like this.

    You are the head of a major hospital. Your only surgeon is accused of a sex offence. You must make the decision to stand the surgeon down knowing that this will mean that several or many people will die because there is no surgeon.

    Now it seems that you in that position would stand the surgeon down. The people who die will be the responsibility of the surgeon, not you as the CEO.

    I however probably would not. I would probably seek some sort of compromise such that the surgeon keeps working under supervision. Much as i might hate the surgeon and his behaviour, I would seek to keep him working until such time as i had a replacement.

    This is of course one of those classic philosophical dilemmas with which they often tease students.

  18. Gee Zoomster better tell that to AIPAC

    Just as it will be in the case of Trump, lobbying will be via intermediaries and would not be directly in contravention of any laws.

    in any case what happens when there are dual citizens doing the lobbying

  19. #NEWSPOLL @australian Shorten: Satisfied 36 (+3) Dissatisfied 51 (-2)

    The Smear is leading with the PPM figure, the only ray if hope in the stinking carcass which is the Turnbull governement

  20. dtt

    In which case the head of the hospital risks being an accessory after the crime, and thus would face the same penalties as the surgeon.

    No one in any position of responsibility is allowed to turn a blind eye to criminal behaviour.

  21. GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 4m4 minutes ago
    More
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 36 (+3) Disapprove 51 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (+4) Disapprove 50 (-4) #auspol

  22. daretotread
    Zoomster

    This is of course one of those classic philosophical dilemmas with which they often tease students.

    This is in fact one of the multitude of irrelevant and transparent deflections you attempt to use to mask your incurable inanity.

  23. Confessions

    Are you really that thick or just too blind about anything I post that you cannot rationally assess it?

    The point was about when a person is removed from a position because they broke the law even when that removal may have adverse consequences for others.. It is known as a hypothetical .

    it is exchanges like these that make me despair.

  24. daretotread
    Confessions

    Are you really that thick or just too blind about anything I post that you cannot rationally assess it?

    The point was about when a person is removed from a position because they broke the law even when that removal may have adverse consequences for others.. It is known as a hypothetical .

    it is exchanges like these that make me despair.

    Bollocks. You do not despair. You thrive on the fake arguments. They are a sham. You are a sham. Your claims to be a superior intellect are preposterous. You are a fraud

  25. DTT

    Just for starters, the Don Jr. meeting is very likely evidence of conspiracy to collude.

    Then there’s Flynn, Manafort, Stone, Kushner, Russian money being funneled into the Trump campaign (Trump’s campaign was broke just after he won the primary but was magically flush a couple of weeks later) money laundering, pay for play re sanctions. And on and on and on.

    More big trouble for Trump is that Mueller’s scope IS ABLE to pursue other criminality (ie Trump’s dodgy finances going back decades) he may find during his investigations that fall outside the 2016 election campaign material. Note: Mueller doesn’t hire the best 16 federal prosecutors in the US if there’s only a long shot of indictments.

    Further, many former US federal prosecutors believe that there is already more than enough evidence to prove Trump obstructed justice. Just from Trump’s idiotic tweets and TV appearances alone he is a goner.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/13/15952212/trump-russia-investigation-evidence

    http://www.newsweek.com/could-donald-jr-kushner-and-manafort-go-jail-russia-meeting-you-bet-they-can-636836

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/russian-lawyer-obtained-hill-hearing-seat-florida-trump/story?id=48661448

    http://washingtonjournal.com/2017/08/04/new-report-reveals-mcconnell-ryan-took-millions-russian-oligarch-tied-putin/

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/politics/mueller-investigation-russia-trump-one-year-financial-ties/index.html

    https://www.bustle.com/p/evidence-russian-operatives-discussed-paul-manafort-is-discovered-by-us-investigators-74471

    http://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-russians-invested-nearly-100-million-in-trump-buildings-2017-3?IR=T

    https://thesternfacts.com/proof-trump-knows-agent-who-setup-russian-meeting-with-trump-jr-cd68fd2621b8

    I really have to wonder if you have read a fraction of what is out there on the subject DTT. Probably because you don’t want to – you are still twisting yourself into pretzels defending Trump?Russia and Putin because Hill beating the Bern in the primaries. We’re not stupid you know.

  26. Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated

    Here’s what I’ve been told. All adult kids (not Tiff) are implicated in NYAG Schneiderman’s money laundering invstgn. And Jared’s talking.

  27. DTT,

    Collusion with Russia for political gain, has been admitted. This is no small thing. Russia is not Australia, the U.K., or anywhere else when it comes to sabotage.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *