Three bits of opinion polling news:
• As you can see in the post below this one, there is a poll of Queensland state voting intention in today’s Sunday Mail newspaper. This presumably means a result on federal voting intention from the same poll can be expected this evening.
• An in-house survey from The Australia Institute examines “public attitudes to the federal government’s handling of the global financial crisis, ten years on”. The Labor government of the time is remembered as having done a good job, with 57-24 breaking in favour of the proposition that “Australians should be proud of how its government handled the GFC”. Other findings are a 62-22 split in favour of the proposition that a recession would have unfolded without “large fiscal stimulus”; 48-31 considering borrowing to fund the stimulus was the right thing to do; 45-37 lining up against the proposition that it would have been better to go without stimulus to avoid further debt; and, more narrowly, 42-37 opposed to the notion that the fiscal stimulus policies were “poorly designed and excessive”.
• A ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on same-sex marriage, targeting six seats in Queensland and Western Australia with Coalition MPs with undeclared positions on the subject, finds support for same-sex marriage at over 50% in Hasluck, Moncrieff, Ryan, Swan and Tangney, and at 48% in Stirling with 42% opposed. Similar proportions of respondents favour a free vote being held in parliament “as soon as possible”.
And a whole bunch on preselection, where balls are already starting to roll ahead of a federal election still nearly two years away:
• Western Australia’s Liberal Party has confirmed Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Back. Brockman won 89 votes out of 131 at a vote of the party’s state council held on July 22, from a field that also included former state MPs Michael Sutherland and Mark Lewis.
• The New South Wales ALP’s Left faction has endorsed Tim Ayres, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, to take a factionally reserved Senate position presently occupied by Doug Cameron, who will not contest the next election. The Australian reports the ballot was boycotted by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, who were apparently angered by the AMWU’s lock on a seat that stands to be filled consecutively by three of the union’s leaders (George Campbell, Doug Cameron and now Tim Ayres).
• Samantha Hutchison of The Australian reports that Michael Danby, Labor’s member for Melbourne Ports since 1998, is “facing pressure to bow out” at the next election. Labor has held the seat since 1906, but Danby was given a two-pronged scare at the last election, only narrowly edging the Greens by 24,340 votes to 23,387 to survive to the final count, and then emerging with a 1.4% margin over the Liberals, down from 2.2% in 2013. According to the report, Ari Suss, a Linfox executive and former staffer to Steve Bracks who shares Danby’s Jewish background (together with Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Melbourne is one of two seats in the country where over 10% of the population identifies as Jewish). The Greens have already preselected their candidate from 2016, Steph Hodgins-May, whom Danby placed last on his how-to-vote card after she pulled out of a debate organised by Zionism Victoria.
• Katie Burgess of the Canberra Times reports preselection reforms in Labor’s Australian Capital Territory branch have been “criticised by the party’s right as a way for the left to gain control of a possible third federal seat”, which the territory stands to gain with the latest population-related entitlement determination. The changes have dispensed with requirements that members be branch members for at least 12 months and attend a certain number of meetings in a year to be eligible to vote in preselection ballots, which will reportedly triple the voter base. Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.
• Sky News reports that John Ruddick, a prominent proponent of reforms to democratise the party’s preselection process, as endorsed a fortnight ago at a special party convention, will challenge Trent Zimmerman for preselection in his seat of North Sydney. Zimmerman is a moderate factional operative, and one of the Liberals’ four openly gay federal MPs.
• State upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi has announced she will seek preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, setting up a contest with Lee Rhiannon should she choose to nominate again, which is yet to be determined.
What I find intriguing about Trump and the US situation is that, despite being (supposedly) immersed in the US culture from birth, a person like Trump can forego all that he has absorbed by education & osmosis and start playing the populist/ strongman autocratic leader just like someone from an Argentinian, Chilean, Egyptian or Turkish military junta (among others).
He could easily pivot to riots in the streets as we are seeing in Argentina at present, and bring on a fully fractured society and civil war.
Thanks Adrian. It seems to have escaped DTT that if Pence gets in, it’s only because Hillary didn’t. Voting for Trump always had a high risk of delivering Pence.
confessions
dtt is determined to defend Trump ‘cos the T is Putin’s poodle. Pure & Simple.
Well…dtt has said as much more than once.
ratsak,
If I understand you correctly, you are implying that the behind-the-scenes communications between the Smith group and Labor will have come to a mutual understanding that, in order to get the numbers for the Smith Bill to succeed, and so as the Catholic Conscientious Objectors can salve their consciences, an accommodation will be made for them in some form?
booleanbach
What I find intriguing about Trump …
Yes, he’s not your everyday President. He smells of tyranny.
Zoomster
Sorry but that is nonsense.
In the USA we KNOW that if trump leaves Pence becomes POTUS. it is not like Australia where there will be a caucus/party room meeting and a new person selected. The POTUS will be Pence.
Logically everyone calling for the removal of Trump (for whatever reason – criminality, treason, kiddy fiddling or just being insane) is doing so in the full knowledge that Pence will become POTUS.
It must therefore be assumed that they regard Pence as very much better than Trump. That much is obvious and indisputable.
Every person who will be in the position of influencing the Trump termination must by implication make the judgement that they believe Pence is a lot better than Trump, otherwise they would not be pushing for his removal.
That is LOGIC. It is not some vague idea.
For the very many (perhaps including yourself) who perhaps see the two as much the same, will maybe note the US machinations but would not be like Phoenix and avidly post every tiny machinations of the whole affair. It is fairly clear that he/she is solidly in the Trump removal camp and as such MUST have made the “Pence is much better judgement”
If he/she has not then they may be wiser to stand back a little and be a little less partisan.
I would be very disappointed if a Private Members Bill for Marriage Equality was to make it to vote on the floor of the house only to be scuttled by the religious fundies of whatever party – I would be unable to respect or vote for any of them ever again.
Either that, or they believe in the rule of law.
Yeah, to you.
dtt is anti-Pence for the same reason they’re anti-Clinton. That is, neither of them is Trump, who is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Kremlin.
Quetion
Actually I think I agree with your comment. Voting Trump always had a high chance of delivering Pence.
Mind you voting Clinton always had a high chance of Tim Kaine. He makes Dutton look spicy.
Smith’s bill may well be more palatable to religious ALP members than future ALP bills. That would give their conscious an excuse to vote for it.
booleanbach @ #453 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:36 pm
His admiration for all the world’s Authoritarian leaders has been plain to see for the last 6 months. And then there’s Steve Bannon…
I’m feeling a little unwell.
It’s probably Ebola.
Miss me when I’m gone. But make it quick because you’ll all be dead from Ebola by Thursday week.
Who knows what motivates such people to constantly self-flagellate?
Delusional self-belief.
I doubt that Smith would promote his Bill without being confident it would pass. It would make no sense at all to gamble on wedging Labor while also knowing the LNP will tear itself to pieces.
Zoomster
That is a way too simplistic argument.
If there is only one heart transplant surgeon in the country and you have him removed for some very good reason eg kiddyfiddling, you nevertheless ARE responsible for the deaths that will occur because there is no surgeon.
Yes it is a hideous choice, but that does not lessen the responsibility and that in making the choice to remove said surgeon others will die.
We make these sort of choices everyday to a greater or lesser degree. Everyone always had the do nothing option. We each make the decision from time to time to act and from time to time to stay silent. We implicitly add up the consequences and do the best we can.
briefly @ #468 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:47 pm
Yes, he seemed pretty self-assured on Insiders today. Plus he also admitted to Barrie Cassidy that he had Turnbull’s imprimatur.
Lets kick off the speculation. Parliament resumes this week so Newspoll?
ratsak
I’m feeling a little unwell.
It’s probably Ebola.
Miss me when I’m gone. But make it quick because you’ll all be dead from Ebola by Thursday week.
Pandemic one day, nuclear holocaust the next….railing at the neighbours in between…such is bludgery.
Does anyone know the detail of Smith’s bill.. particularly the “religious freedom” bit?
Malcolm Farr is getting testy on Twitter, when prodded about his silence on Insiders during $30million payment to Foxtel discussion.
When will journos learn not to respond like this on that platform?
The other reason Putin wants to preserve Trump’s presidency is precisely because it is so whacky. Trump is Putin’s revenge on America.
Fairfax has some focus group findings, not good for The Lying Waffle
“Malcolm Turnbull is a huge disappointment who’s been held back by his own party and has not made even one improvement to the people’s lives, according to the unanimous view of undecided voters.
Focus groups in western Sydney and Melbourne were unanimous that Mr Turnbull had failed to achieve anything for them and showed deep frustration. “If he just had the guts, the political will,” said a younger voter from Melbourne, reflecting a widely held view.”
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/if-he-just-had-guts-focus-groups-savage-malcolm-turnbull-as-a-donothing-pm-20170806-gxqcvo.html
Ides,
I’ll be brave (sarcasm) 53-47.
It really is about time we got a 55-45 but I’ve been thinking that for months.
Ides:
I’m down with your speculation. Put me down for Newspoll release tonight complete with requisite SSM polling ahead of tomorrow’s partyroom meeting.
#nothingwrongwithoptimism
C@tmomma @ #454 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:38 pm
I’m just saying that the idea of Shorten being caught with his pants down doesn’t strike me as likely. It could be what you’re implying, or it could be something else. But I don’t for a second believe Shorten would have stuck his neck out, and continued to stick his neck out, as far as he has if he didn’t KNOW that he had the numbers when it came to the crunch.
Whatever criticisms you might make of Shorten, an inability to count is not one of them.
I well remember the CPG being all aflutter with their hopes that Shorten was going to be fatally wounded at the National Conference. There were 4 resolutions (SSM) being one, where apparently Bill was in big Barney Rubble and he was going to be rolled and Albo was coming blah blah blah.
Shorten of course got his way on all 4 issues.
I knew then this guy was as pro as he’d be made out to be.
A pro like Shorten isn’t going to engineer chaos in the Coalition only to have it all turn to shit when a few SDA types leave him looking like an idiot.
I have no idea what deals or arrangements have been sorted out. Just that on past performance the idea that they haven’t been locked down to Bill’s satisfaction is fanciful.
Been on the road for a few weeks so have missed all the changes to PB, serious political actions and general fun.
PB looks a bit different since I last posted.
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #467 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:41 pm
I guess it all depends who your local candidate is. You may not even be offered that choice.
William
Sorry you comment was a bit naive. Those who chased Gillard and her ex partner were also following the “law”.
When is something the law and when is it a witchhunt”
When the 99% of Congress who have had dealings with Israel and accepted their money are also prosecuted then I will agree with you bout the rule of law. However it is just a political witchhunt which does not even have mu=ch basis in truth.
If the issue is “collusion”with Russia in LAW there is no difference between that and collusion with Israel or the UK or Australia. I think just about everyone in US politics would fail the test.
If the issue is about sleazy financial deals then sure but i think that you could find the same for many other including Bush and possibly Clinton . The law is only the law if fairly applied. If used to get political opponents without also applying it to your own side then it is no longer the law and is in fact a form of tyranny.
There’s a full moon rising tomorrow.
Some seem to be barking in anticipation!
DQ:
I don’t recall the Foxtel gift coming up on Insiders this morning, but admittedly I didn’t see all of it. Was Farr just supposed to blurt it out in the middle of other discussion?
Fess – Yeah tonight seems better for generating impact
? – I’d love a 55-45 if only to hasten the end of Turnbull.
I think it is already clear from what is known, that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia. Maybe nothing criminal so far, but it stinks, and Mueller will say as much. Also, unless Comey is a liar, Trump obstructed justice. No “Russiagate malarkey”, Poroti, Not a beat-up.
And DTT, yes most would want to see Trump lose power, but this does not mean anybody approves of Pence, if he is innocent.
daretotread @ #410 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:04 pm
I vote for this as the ‘stupidest comment of the day’. And today there has been some stiff competition!
Foxtel gift was mentioned by Barry, the panel passed on any comment.
sprocket_ @ #473 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:53 pm
Well the ‘failure to achieve anything for them’ attitude is at least 100% spot on.
It still baffles me how anyone still falls for the idea that this husk isn’t the ‘Real Malcolm’ and he just needs a spine implant though. God has there ever been a bigger cock who’s had more fawning press?
Confessions,
Yes you obviously didn’t see all of it.
briefly @ #475 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:53 pm
Putin wants to entrench the concept of criminal kleptocrats in charge of countries. Even supposedly democratic ones.
daretotread
William
Sorry you comment was a bit naive. Those who chased Gillard and her ex partner were also following the “law”.
This is truly bizarre.
When the 99% of Congress who have had dealings with Israel and accepted their money are also prosecuted
Wow. dtt is accusing the entire Congress of taking bribes from Israel. Just wow! Anti-semitism + Trumpism + Russophilia is a heady mix.
DQ + boolenbach
Lenore Taylor didnt like the Foxtel gift. Coorey passed on it.
DQ, Boolean:
Sorry, I missed that bit of Insiders.
C@tmomma
briefly @ #475 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:53 pm
The other reason Putin wants to preserve Trump’s presidency is precisely because it is so whacky. Trump is Putin’s revenge on America.
Putin wants to entrench the concept of criminal kleptocrats in charge of countries. Even supposedly democratic ones.
He wants to divide his opponents. He’s succeeding.
Trump is just the wrong person in the wrong job but the US system means he will be there for a while longer, probably 3 and a half years longer. POTUSi are hard to get rid of.
confessions @ #484 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:57 pm
It was brought up by Barrie and Lenore made the salient point that it was strange that the government gave $30 million of taxpayers’ money to a media outlet that people would have to pay to access if they wanted to watch the sport the government says they gave the money to Foxtel to promote.
bemused
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #467 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:41 pm
I would be very disappointed if a Private Members Bill was to make it to vote on the floor of the house only to be scuttled be the religious fundies of whatever party – I would be unable to respect or vote for any of them ever again.
I guess it all depends who your local candidate is. You may not even be offered that choice.
*********************************************************************************************
I should have been clearer, I would be unable to respect or vote for ANY politicians ever again.
Nose. Spite. Face.
briefly @ #469 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:50 pm
I hope the Nuclear Holocaust kicks in soon. Ebola is a bitch.
davidwh
Trump is just the wrong person in the wrong job
Masterly understatement, david 🙂
Trump is just the wrong
ratsak
briefly @ #469 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:50 pm
I hope the Nuclear Holocaust kicks in soon. Ebola is a bitch.
Excellent!
I hope the Nuclear Holocaust kicks in soon. Ebola is a bitch.
Yep. Rub a little nuclear fallout radioisotope onto your Ebola, Ebola magically gawn!