Sunday snippets

A whole bunch of preselection news, plus retrospective findings from an Australia Institute survey on the Rudd government’s handling of the global financial crisis.

Three bits of opinion polling news:

• As you can see in the post below this one, there is a poll of Queensland state voting intention in today’s Sunday Mail newspaper. This presumably means a result on federal voting intention from the same poll can be expected this evening.

• An in-house survey from The Australia Institute examines “public attitudes to the federal government’s handling of the global financial crisis, ten years on”. The Labor government of the time is remembered as having done a good job, with 57-24 breaking in favour of the proposition that “Australians should be proud of how its government handled the GFC”. Other findings are a 62-22 split in favour of the proposition that a recession would have unfolded without “large fiscal stimulus”; 48-31 considering borrowing to fund the stimulus was the right thing to do; 45-37 lining up against the proposition that it would have been better to go without stimulus to avoid further debt; and, more narrowly, 42-37 opposed to the notion that the fiscal stimulus policies were “poorly designed and excessive”.

• A ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on same-sex marriage, targeting six seats in Queensland and Western Australia with Coalition MPs with undeclared positions on the subject, finds support for same-sex marriage at over 50% in Hasluck, Moncrieff, Ryan, Swan and Tangney, and at 48% in Stirling with 42% opposed. Similar proportions of respondents favour a free vote being held in parliament “as soon as possible”.

And a whole bunch on preselection, where balls are already starting to roll ahead of a federal election still nearly two years away:

• Western Australia’s Liberal Party has confirmed Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Back. Brockman won 89 votes out of 131 at a vote of the party’s state council held on July 22, from a field that also included former state MPs Michael Sutherland and Mark Lewis.

• The New South Wales ALP’s Left faction has endorsed Tim Ayres, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, to take a factionally reserved Senate position presently occupied by Doug Cameron, who will not contest the next election. The Australian reports the ballot was boycotted by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, who were apparently angered by the AMWU’s lock on a seat that stands to be filled consecutively by three of the union’s leaders (George Campbell, Doug Cameron and now Tim Ayres).

• Samantha Hutchison of The Australian reports that Michael Danby, Labor’s member for Melbourne Ports since 1998, is “facing pressure to bow out” at the next election. Labor has held the seat since 1906, but Danby was given a two-pronged scare at the last election, only narrowly edging the Greens by 24,340 votes to 23,387 to survive to the final count, and then emerging with a 1.4% margin over the Liberals, down from 2.2% in 2013. According to the report, Ari Suss, a Linfox executive and former staffer to Steve Bracks who shares Danby’s Jewish background (together with Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Melbourne is one of two seats in the country where over 10% of the population identifies as Jewish). The Greens have already preselected their candidate from 2016, Steph Hodgins-May, whom Danby placed last on his how-to-vote card after she pulled out of a debate organised by Zionism Victoria.

• Katie Burgess of the Canberra Times reports preselection reforms in Labor’s Australian Capital Territory branch have been “criticised by the party’s right as a way for the left to gain control of a possible third federal seat”, which the territory stands to gain with the latest population-related entitlement determination. The changes have dispensed with requirements that members be branch members for at least 12 months and attend a certain number of meetings in a year to be eligible to vote in preselection ballots, which will reportedly triple the voter base. Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.

• Sky News reports that John Ruddick, a prominent proponent of reforms to democratise the party’s preselection process, as endorsed a fortnight ago at a special party convention, will challenge Trent Zimmerman for preselection in his seat of North Sydney. Zimmerman is a moderate factional operative, and one of the Liberals’ four openly gay federal MPs.

• State upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi has announced she will seek preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, setting up a contest with Lee Rhiannon should she choose to nominate again, which is yet to be determined.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

541 comments on “Sunday snippets”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers!

    And in Local Government news, Labor on the Central Coast of NSW is still waiting to count the ballots to select it’s candidates for the September 9 council elections because Belinda Neal, one of the aforementioned candidates for pre-selection to go on the Gosford West Ward ticket, is challenging her expulsion from the ALP and we can’t do anything until that matter is sorted out. No campaigning, nuttin!

    Forever the fly in the ALP ointment. That should be her political epitaph.

  2. Ouch. Sucks to be Danby if the ALP thinks being Danby is a greater penalty than being the sitting member is an advantage. Especially since his winning margin is within the normal personal vote area. They must have some awful internal data on his personal ratings.

    I can’t see Mehreen Faruqi beating Rhiannon if she does nominate again, given Rhiannon has very organized factional support even if it’s on the wane (and the Federal mess up probably gave it a rallying cry). It’d almost certainly lead to significant internal issues even if Lee is beaten , since Lee’s group have tried to formalize organize before and might split. I wonder if the goal is actually to lock in for 2022 , since whatever the outcome of the actual election Rhiannon won’t contest that one outside of a DD.

  3. White voters are fleeing Trump

    A new poll this week from Quinnipiac University found that not only had Trump’s approval rating sunk to a new low, but support among key demographics Trump won during the 2016 election—most notably white voters without a college degree—had also dropped off.

    Just 33 percent of voters approved of Trump’s job performance overall, a sharp decline from 40 percent approval in the Quinnipiac poll at the end of June. Sixty-one percent of voters disapproved of Trump in the latest survey.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/white-voters-are-fleeing-trump/

  4. ‘It would light up like a disco’: Bush ethics czar suggests a lie detector be placed on Huckabee Sanders’ podium

    The chief ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration had sharp criticism for Kellyanne Conway’s idea of bringing polygraphs into the White House.

    “They are trying to cover things up and now they’re talking about bringing lie detectors into the White House, at least Kellyanne Conway was talking about that,”

    “I suggest they put one on the press podium, that would light up like a disco!” Prof. Painter suggested.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/it-would-light-up-like-a-disco-bush-ethics-czar-suggests-a-lie-detector-be-placed-on-huckabee-sanders-podium/

  5. ‘Those were just campaign words’: CNN host corners lawmaker who ran on building Trump’s wall

    CNN host Victor Blackwell cornered a conservative Republican lawmaker over excuses for Trump neither building a border wall nor having Mexico pay for it.

    “I don’t think anyone during the campaign seriously thought that Mexico was going to pay for that wall,” Congressman Francis Rooney (R-FL) opined on Thursday. “We all believe that the wall is a metaphor for border security.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/those-were-just-campaign-words-cnn-host-corners-lawmaker-who-ran-on-building-trumps-wall/

  6. Robert Mueller’s latest move signals he just might take down Mike Pence too By Bill Palmer
    This all has to do with Michael Flynn. According to a New York Times report posted last night , Robert Mueller is now demanding that the White House turn over any documents it has in relation to Flynn’s employment
    Mike Pence was the head of the transition team, which means that he knew all about it. So when Pence went on television after inauguration and claimed Flynn was clean, he was knowingly lying.

  7. phoenixRED

    “The chief ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration” 😆 Yep just the person to seek opinion from 😆

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Laurie Oakes writes that the Coalition has lost touch with common sense. He says that the modern Liberal Party suffers from the same ailment that made Labor unelectable for much of the 1950s and ’60s. Google.
    /rendezview/laurie-oakes-the-coalition-has-lost-touch-with-common-sense/news-story/dc1a292e98b7fb89b1868f51337e892f
    Julian Burnside comes out swinging as he says Turnbull’s government has called refugees “illegal” and treats them as criminals. It is a lie on which the Coalition has made itself popular. It has shown Turnbull at his worst he concludes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/05/the-leaked-transcript-of-turnbulls-call-with-trump-shows-him-at-his-worst
    Peter Martin opines that when it comes to electricity prices the joke’s on us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/when-it-comes-to-electricity-the-jokes-on-us-20170804-gxpi9z.html
    Quentin Dempster tells us that NBN debacle keeps getting worse and that a political storm is brewing as the it fails to connect with Australians.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2017/08/04/nbn-customer-complaints/
    Prescription opioids are about to sweep through the drug culture in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/prescription-opioid-epidemic-coming-to-australia-20170803-gxobvt.html
    A postal vote on same-sex marriage would likely be invalid without legislation and struck down in the High Court, according to legal advice obtained by marriage equality advocates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/postal-vote-on-samesex-marriage-would-be-invalid-without-legislation-lawyers-20170805-gxpz88.html
    A climate science critic and one of the most controversial figures in the Trump administration will soon tour Australia in a visit environmental activists are likely to target with protests. I’m sure Malcolm Roberts will be queuing up for a selfie!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-05/donald-trump-epa-boss-scott-pruitt-to-vist-australia/8776752
    Australian passengers are set to experience rigorous airport screening in domestic terminals in line with international travel procedures. This further decreases my decreased appetite for travel.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/05/australian-airport-security/
    Lenore Taylor piles into Betina Arndt and Andrew Bolt over their response to the survey of sexual assault in universities.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/05/in-what-universe-are-the-findings-on-sexual-assault-in-universities-good-news

  9. Section 2 . . .

    Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration.
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/snowy-retreat-climate-change-puts-australias-ski-industry-on-a-downhill-slope-20170804-gxp74h.html
    Peter FitzSimons sings Bill Shorten’s praises.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-fitz-files-bill-shorten-bonza-bloke-makes-big-impression-at-arm-20170804-gxpihw.html
    Gary Linnell reckons it’s time for the Queen to retire too.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/as-prince-philip-waves-goodbye-perhaps-its-time-for-queen-elizabeth-too-20170803-gxoo9f.html
    Look what the Shooters Party wants to do!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/shooters-party-want-to-give-10yearolds-legal-access-to-guns-20170804-gxpb0o.html
    Yet another charity swindle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-jaguar-the-childrens-care-charity-and-the-mysterious-contracts-20170804-gxpdqh.html
    Can we stop the collapse of democracy?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/can-we-stop-the-collapse-of-democracy-20170804-gxpxmv.html
    Trump, who knocked his predecessor’s work ethic and said he probably wouldn’t take holidays as president, has settled in for 17 days at his secluded golf club in New Jersey’s fox-hunt and horse country.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-begins-17day-holiday-at-secluded-new-jersey-golf-club-20170805-gxq6ay.html
    Meanwhile there is a grand jury in Washington DC. The special counsel’s team is full of experts in financial crime. On Russia, the president can feel the net closing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/05/robert-mueller-donald-trump-russia
    The ACTU is ramping up the campaign against the work for the dole program.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sally-mcmanus-ratchets-up-campaign-against-racist-workforthedole-program-20170803-gxookm.html
    Robot handmaidens are coming.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/opinion/the-rise-of-sex-robots-is-real-and-we-should-be-concerned-20170804-gxpsl3.html

  10. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Reg Lynch and white House leaks.

    Paul Zanetti with the latest business venture at the CBA.

    Jon Kudelka also hits CBA.

    Matt Golding is confused over the state of the AFL ladder.

    Andrew Dyson and a marriage made in heaven.

    Ron Tandberg goes back to Manus Island.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Simon Letch and the NRL coaching manual.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html
    Mark Knight and wedge politics.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c7b81f062d4d781dc9341592caa18310?width=1024

  11. Wow, that’s amazing!

    We’ve had no internet since about three pm yesterday, and the software informed me just now that there were 16329 new comments!

  12. WB – re’ proposed new ACT seat:

    Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.

    Yesterday a comment was posted here suggesting that Penny Wong would be a candidate for the proposed new seat.

    Interesting.

  14. Morning all and thanks BK and PhoenixRed for today’s reading.

    Some of the comments on that Laurie Oakes article have to be seen to be believed, like this one:

    They changed the meaning of marriage. It wasn’t long ago that marriage meant that the husband ruled the house and all aspects of his wife’s life. The husband made the rules and the wife was just expected to follow whether she liked it or not. It would still be the same i if it was up to the traditional loving right wingers who yearn for the good old days.

    😆

  15. phoenixRED Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:40 am Comment #5

    ‘Those were just campaign words’: CNN host corners lawmaker who ran on building Trump’s wall.
    …
    “I don’t think anyone during the campaign seriously thought that Mexico was going to pay for that wall,” Congressman Francis Rooney (R-FL) opined on Thursday. “We all believe that the wall is a metaphor for border security.”

    I don’t think that people believed that the Mexican Govt was ever going to write a cheque for ‘the wall’ but that import duty would be applied to goods (most likely cars) imported from Mexico.

    This would have been popular with voters in the US where vehicle manufacturing plants had been closed.

  17. Senators Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse have already been to Iowa this year, Gov. John Kasich is eyeing a return visit to New Hampshire, and Mike Pence’s schedule is so full of political events that Republicans joke that he is acting more like a second-term vice president hoping to clear the field than a No. 2 sworn in a little over six months ago.

    President Trump’s first term is ostensibly just warming up, but luminaries in his own party have begun what amounts to a shadow campaign for 2020 — as if the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue weren’t involved.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/us/politics/2020-campaign-president-trump-cotton-sasse-pence.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

  18. Poroti
    phoenixRED
    “The chief ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration” Yep just the person to seek opinion from

    The point is obvious isn’t it? Everybody knows the Trump admin is the biggest pack of liar’s ever seen.

  20. CTar1 @ #15 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:41 am

    phoenixRED Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:40 am Comment #5

    ‘Those were just campaign words’: CNN host corners lawmaker who ran on building Trump’s wall.
    …
    “I don’t think anyone during the campaign seriously thought that Mexico was going to pay for that wall,” Congressman Francis Rooney (R-FL) opined on Thursday. “We all believe that the wall is a metaphor for border security.”

    I don’t think that people believed that the Mexican Govt was ever going to write a cheque for ‘the wall’ but that import duty would be applied to goods (most likely cars) imported from Mexico.

    This would have been popular with voters in the US where vehicle manufacturing plants had been closed.

    Oh no, I think that many of Trump’s voters believed in the literal meaning, metaphors are beyond them. It’s the land of biblical literalists.

  21. BK

    Sooner or later this one was going to come home to roost. Malcolm Turnbull ‘Come on down’ –

    A political storm is brewing as the NBN fails to connect with Australians.

    Slow speeds and poor performance are causing consumer complaints to soar while leading to others choosing not to sign up to what voters have been told is nation-building and transformative broadband technology.

    The rising dissatisfaction could lead to the NBN becoming a major issue at the next federal election if Communications Minister Mitch Fifield, and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull are unable to address it.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2017/08/04/nbn-customer-complaints/

    I can’t see how they could ‘address’ this other than a big ‘mea culpa’. The long term effects of Liberal Party ‘we can do it cheaper, better and faster’ drivel are huge for this country.

  22. Why does Trump lie so much? An interesting perspective here – he has picked it up from refinements in Russian propaganda techniques. And echoes of our very own Lying Friar

    “Trump is also a prolific liar on stage: Of the 29 false statements the Washington Post tracked last week, five came in a speech to Boy Scouts, two came from a news conference, and a whopping 15 came from a rally in Youngstown, Ohio. (Seven others came from, where else, his personal Twitter feed.)

    The deluge matters, notes RAND: “The experimental psychology literature suggests that, all other things being equal, messages received in greater volume and from more sources will be more persuasive.””

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/08/trump-nonstop-lies/

  23. Question

    No it is not the point.Asking a guy like that is hoing , hey, let’s ask a bullshit artist a question, we are sure to get an honest answer. Or by golly if that Monckton chappie thinks some guy has a wacky view on climate change then surely that proves the guy’s view is wacky.

  25. CTar1

    Currently, Mal is still saying wtte It’s Labor’s fault in the way they set it up. I had to come in and save it. They weren’t rolling it out fast enough.

    ‘Mea culpa’ isn’t in the Lib vocabulary. 🙁

  26. Of course they thought he would literally force Mexico to pay for the wall.

    Throughout the campaign Trump continued to assert his ‘brilliant deal-making abilities’ as evidence that he and he alone could make Mexico pay for the wall. It was all bullshit of course, but people did believe that.

  28. It’s depressing that this is a valid question now with so many countries showing signs of decreasing democracy.

    Can we stop the collapse of democracy?

    Attacks on democracy have been carried out by democratically elected leaders, in a toxic combination of populism and crude majoritarianism. The diminishing of democracy is presented as precisely the opposite, because it has the support of a significant majority.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/can-we-stop-the-collapse-of-democracy-20170804-gxpxmv.html

  29. Insiders ABC‏Verified account @InsidersABC 1h1 hour ago
    On #Insiders,@barriecassidy IVs @DeanSmithWA on the #samesexmarriage debate. On the panel @PhillipCoorey,@lenoretaylor& @farrm51. #auspol

    SSM to dominate the news today.

  30. Poroti,
    It demostrates quite clearly how crap the Trump standards are. Huckabee even reads toddler fan mail FFS. It’s deplorable and the Republican old guard know it.

  31. I forgot to say Good Morning

    With a court challenge inevitable to a postal plebiscite I think its a dead parrot. How long the LNP says its alive is going to be interesting. The more they do it the more voters they will lose as they highlight ideological religious views over human rights.

    Other than that I have nothing to add from my comments yesterday not to lose sight of the exposure of Turnbull the transcripts with Trump have given us.

  32. CTar1

    Sooner or later this one was going to come home to roost.

    And boy does Labor have some ‘shocker’ Truffles quotes they can put on billboards with regard to the NBN. Claims like “Australia doesn’t want 100Mbps Internet, says Turnbull” or claims about the copper is going to be as fast as fibre. Truffles even had a moment of Joe “Get a Good Job” Hockey.

  35. On preselections – the Victorian ALP recently sent out its timetable for Federal preselections. Nominations close in February and successful candidates will be announced in April (to allow time for postal ballots).

  36. AMEquality: Exciting: We’ve received a copy of a #MarriageEquality Bill by Sen Dean Smith. We’re reviewing & will be holding a press conf @ 10 w info

  38. lizzie

    Currently, Mal is still saying wtte It’s Labor’s fault in the way they set it up. I had to come in and save it. They weren’t rolling it out fast enough.
    ‘Mea culpa’ isn’t in the Lib vocabulary.

    It’s also in denial of the basic laws of engineering a new project – such as fibre to the premises – is that ironing out all the technical and regulatory challenges is a major part of the job. Once this is done, the roll-out can proceed, economies of scale and the learning curve cut in, and the roll-out gets progressively faster and cheaper.
    This has also been the experience in other jurisdictions.
    But the Coalition denied this reality. They have shot themselves -and the nation – in the foot.

  40. Trog

    The Coalition did not shoot themselves in the foot. They only shot Australia’s. the Libs knew what they were doing and what would happen. It was to win “Today”, ‘Tomorrow” ? we’ll deal with that when we get there and hey that is years away so until then eat drink and be merry.

  41. katinacurtis: Zimmerman says given position of Senate crossbench, the choice is not between free vote and plebiscite, but between free vote and nothing.

    On Sky

  42. Yep I agree with poroti. The coalition knew precisely what they were doing, did it deliberately and with intent, and the country and we consumers are worse off for it.

  44. Poroti Fess

    The LNP were always thus.

    Now however its more apparent because people have voices through social media. One of the reasons the right continues to disparage social media. Plus leaks from Whitehouse other sources showing true colours.

    The LNP has always been for the big end of town.

  45. I think Abbott’s main purpose in killing modern broadband access was to please Rupert – who didn’t want competition to Foxtel!

  46. confessions @ #42 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:54 am

    Yep I agree with poroti. The coalition knew precisely what they were doing, did it deliberately and with intent, and the country and we consumers are worse off for it.

    In opposition, Abbott gave Turnbull the job to wreck the NBN. It continued when Abbott won and there has been no change in trajectory since Mal backstabbed Abbott.

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