Three bits of opinion polling news:
• As you can see in the post below this one, there is a poll of Queensland state voting intention in today’s Sunday Mail newspaper. This presumably means a result on federal voting intention from the same poll can be expected this evening.
• An in-house survey from The Australia Institute examines “public attitudes to the federal government’s handling of the global financial crisis, ten years on”. The Labor government of the time is remembered as having done a good job, with 57-24 breaking in favour of the proposition that “Australians should be proud of how its government handled the GFC”. Other findings are a 62-22 split in favour of the proposition that a recession would have unfolded without “large fiscal stimulus”; 48-31 considering borrowing to fund the stimulus was the right thing to do; 45-37 lining up against the proposition that it would have been better to go without stimulus to avoid further debt; and, more narrowly, 42-37 opposed to the notion that the fiscal stimulus policies were “poorly designed and excessive”.
• A ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on same-sex marriage, targeting six seats in Queensland and Western Australia with Coalition MPs with undeclared positions on the subject, finds support for same-sex marriage at over 50% in Hasluck, Moncrieff, Ryan, Swan and Tangney, and at 48% in Stirling with 42% opposed. Similar proportions of respondents favour a free vote being held in parliament “as soon as possible”.
And a whole bunch on preselection, where balls are already starting to roll ahead of a federal election still nearly two years away:
• Western Australia’s Liberal Party has confirmed Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Back. Brockman won 89 votes out of 131 at a vote of the party’s state council held on July 22, from a field that also included former state MPs Michael Sutherland and Mark Lewis.
• The New South Wales ALP’s Left faction has endorsed Tim Ayres, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, to take a factionally reserved Senate position presently occupied by Doug Cameron, who will not contest the next election. The Australian reports the ballot was boycotted by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, who were apparently angered by the AMWU’s lock on a seat that stands to be filled consecutively by three of the union’s leaders (George Campbell, Doug Cameron and now Tim Ayres).
• Samantha Hutchison of The Australian reports that Michael Danby, Labor’s member for Melbourne Ports since 1998, is “facing pressure to bow out” at the next election. Labor has held the seat since 1906, but Danby was given a two-pronged scare at the last election, only narrowly edging the Greens by 24,340 votes to 23,387 to survive to the final count, and then emerging with a 1.4% margin over the Liberals, down from 2.2% in 2013. According to the report, Ari Suss, a Linfox executive and former staffer to Steve Bracks who shares Danby’s Jewish background (together with Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Melbourne is one of two seats in the country where over 10% of the population identifies as Jewish). The Greens have already preselected their candidate from 2016, Steph Hodgins-May, whom Danby placed last on his how-to-vote card after she pulled out of a debate organised by Zionism Victoria.
• Katie Burgess of the Canberra Times reports preselection reforms in Labor’s Australian Capital Territory branch have been “criticised by the party’s right as a way for the left to gain control of a possible third federal seat”, which the territory stands to gain with the latest population-related entitlement determination. The changes have dispensed with requirements that members be branch members for at least 12 months and attend a certain number of meetings in a year to be eligible to vote in preselection ballots, which will reportedly triple the voter base. Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.
• Sky News reports that John Ruddick, a prominent proponent of reforms to democratise the party’s preselection process, as endorsed a fortnight ago at a special party convention, will challenge Trent Zimmerman for preselection in his seat of North Sydney. Zimmerman is a moderate factional operative, and one of the Liberals’ four openly gay federal MPs.
• State upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi has announced she will seek preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, setting up a contest with Lee Rhiannon should she choose to nominate again, which is yet to be determined.
Okay so my question yesterday has been answered. The 4 Lib HoR members are looking to cross the floor to suspend standing orders to force parliamentary debate on SSM.
I still think a compromise deal will be found tomorrow which sees them back down.
FFS Abetz is a clown. Fancy tabling possible legislation allowing businesses to refuse business. They don’t need legislation for that; a caterer doesn’t want to take a job s/he won’t take it.
This is an excellent point
paulch_6: #insiders experts say a plebiscite would be harmful. I’ve yet to see a journalist raise this with any LNP member arguing it is their policy
Is it normal for party preselections to be completed/in progress this early? Or is it cos the Federal Govt is shaky.
“………..phylactella
I think Abbott’s main purpose in killing modern broadband access was to please Rupert – who didn’t want competition to Foxtel!…….”
And that comment perfectly sums up the Coalition and it’s policy on the NBN.
Fess
I think the point is will those that refuse service get done for discrimination.
lanesainty: Smith warns that this bill is “Coalition-led” and people cannot guarantee similar protections under a Labor bill. #insiders
IOM
Will new legislation override Labor’s existing discrimination laws?
Its normal for pre-selections to be done early-ish because you don’t know when a snap election can be called under our system. But yes this is unusually early and that’s because things are looking shakey (if the federal Coalition gets strong polls at any point after next June it’s fairly probable we’ll see a snap election, and the Labor government in Queensland are just looking for a good time to go now).
InsidersABC: A new poll expected to show support for a conscience vote on #samesexmarriage. #Insiders #auspol pic.twitter.com/cYuCsGLNxi
ChristineMilne: “@AMEquality: Exciting: We’ve received a copy of a #MarriageEquality Bill by Sen Dean Smith. We’re reviewing & … What exemptions? #auspol
Ides:
Weddings are not like walking into a cafe and being refused service. A friend of mine is a wedding planner and she is always turning away business because she is too busy. That’s all she has to say when turning down clients.
Dean Smith argues logically and well.
The John Howard love is sick-inducing.
lizzie:
He’s actually very nice in person.
Fess
You’re right. Most of them could probs get away with just saying their busy and not to have their real reason heard.
Trog
Yep.
Under Coalition direction changing the method of delivery has deep sixed any chance of economy of scale and learning by the builders/installers.
It’s rooted.
Peter van OnselenVerified account @vanOnselenP 53m53 minutes ago
About to talk to Trent Zimmerman on @SkyNewsAust re SSM and his Bill on the issue. #auspol @australian
SSM is the theme of the day heading into tomorrow.
Excellent point by Farr. The coalition are billing the taxpayer with its plebiscite only to sort out their own internal problems.
Malcolm Farr i think just summed up the SSM issue for the Coalitions. $100 million billed to taxpayers to solve their internal issue.
Fess watchin Insiders? Has the world gone bonkers???
damienpbuckley: If community support for #MarriageEquality is so high and yet opposition amongst MP’s so high, who are they actually representing? #insiders
Ides:
When Insiders has a sane panel I don’t mind watching 🙂
Gt
Unrepresentative swill!
Nick McKim seems to popping up a lot more lately. Is there some kind of leadership vacuum he is looking to fill?
Insiders going through points by Mal to Trump, not in Mal’s favour.
DQ
McKim is the refugees spokesperson for the Greens. Of courses he going to pop up a lot at the moment. Plus the two others who pop up a lot in the media are gone.
SenatorWong: Thank you @DeanSmithWA for your integrity, courage and determination. #respect #MarriageEquality #auspol
lizzie
the software informed me just now that there were 16329 new comments!
Is your software run by Donald Trump?
We have the best comments! We have the most comments! You are going to be tired of so many comments!
Don
I am bigly respectful. 😉
senthorun: 1. Relationship equality is basic.
2. Non-discriminatory access to services is basic.
3. MPs voting on bills is basic.
What’s to debate?
[guytaur
damienpbuckley: If community support for #MarriageEquality is so high and yet opposition amongst MP’s so high, who are they actually representing? #insiders]
That question should really go directly to the Liberal and National Parties.
Labor only has a handful it seems that would vote against ME, the fact that it may only require a few Libs to cross the floor to get the vote up, shows this.
This discussion by the panel shows just how bad this govt has been for the country. We’ve gone backwards since they came to office, and they are still fighting old battles instead of prosecuting a case for the future.
Fess
Yes. Taylor openly calling LNP climate policy nuts. My only question is where was this in the last ten years?
The Coaltion’s climate dilemma neatly put by the Insiders Panel: you need to design a policy that’s nuts to get it through a party room that’s nuts.
Same applies to same sex marriage.
guytaur:
Exactly! But I suppose better late than never for the msm.
Churches have the right not to marry certain people at present (for example, some won’t marry divorcees). I’ve never heard screams of protest on those grounds.
Good point that was made on insiders today. $40M to $100M for a postal plebiscite that has no authority and is simply a bill handed to taxpayers for the cost of solving a Liberal internal party dispute.
Dont really see that the Libs can come out of monday with anything other than a free vote soon on the agenda. Will be interesting to see analysis of the newest version of legislation on SSM??
zoomster
Exactly. So why the religious exemptions? Only to allow discrimination. See US story of Clerk refusing to sign marriage certificates.
Grog is calling for the creation of a new Ministry.
The Ministry for Common Sense.
He’s in fine form as usual.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/aug/06/path-internships-show-government-is-on-the-wrong-track
guytaur:
Ah yes, the hypocritical Kim Davis. Bill Maher had fun with her:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47NWmhalMD8
imacca,
Read Grog’s piece and then reassess your last paragraph. 🙂
Grog is going to have to wait for a Labor govt to get a ministry for common sense.
Fess
Thanks. 🙂
That just made a good tweet for me.
The big issue for the LNP is changing their policy which they took to the last election. It’s been very obvious that a significant proportion of the LNP are not for changing. So, that will likely stymie such a change of policy occurring in the immediate future. Sure, this may lead to rebels “voting” with their conscience in any parliamentary motion. But, it does bind the Ministers and it will likely lead to a the Conservatives to consider the nuclear option about continuing to support the Government.
I doubt this will happen because the LNP crave power/Government more than anything else.
It’s interesting that there is some talk now about possible exclusions for Celebrants, vendors of products servicing SSM marriages and the like. So, a compromise position is beginning to emerge. I’m still hopeful that the name marriage will be removed from these proposed civil partnering arrangements.
That would be the sensible solution that would gain more widespread support for the legislative changes to proceed.
http://www.tasmaniantimes.com/index.php/article/liberals-admit-to-exclusive-brethren-hate-ad-collusion
guytaur
Huge difference between an employee refusing to do their job and a church refusing to perform a marriage ceremony.
You can get married without a marriage ceremony, and you would also be able to find a church to conduct the ceremony.
Churches discriminate now – I’ve never heard any outcry about it, because what happens is that the couple concerned find another church that will marry them. That church makes more money than the church that won’t.
People shouldn’t be forced to act in ways that go against their religious beliefs – Centrelink recognises this (there used to be a spate of people joining the Seventh Day Adventists up here during the tobacco season…)
zoomster
Yes exactly the point. We know the Catholic Church for example can refuse to marry divorced couples. So existing law covers that.
No need for new legislation to given exemptions. Plus Labor put into place discrimination laws which prevails?
So, GG you’re still for maintaining inequality.
And in the same vein if I were in a gay relationship organising my wedding and the local cake maker refused to make our cake, there’s no way I’d want to give them my business. I’d take my money elsewhere.