Sunday snippets

A whole bunch of preselection news, plus retrospective findings from an Australia Institute survey on the Rudd government’s handling of the global financial crisis.

Three bits of opinion polling news:

• As you can see in the post below this one, there is a poll of Queensland state voting intention in today’s Sunday Mail newspaper. This presumably means a result on federal voting intention from the same poll can be expected this evening.

• An in-house survey from The Australia Institute examines “public attitudes to the federal government’s handling of the global financial crisis, ten years on”. The Labor government of the time is remembered as having done a good job, with 57-24 breaking in favour of the proposition that “Australians should be proud of how its government handled the GFC”. Other findings are a 62-22 split in favour of the proposition that a recession would have unfolded without “large fiscal stimulus”; 48-31 considering borrowing to fund the stimulus was the right thing to do; 45-37 lining up against the proposition that it would have been better to go without stimulus to avoid further debt; and, more narrowly, 42-37 opposed to the notion that the fiscal stimulus policies were “poorly designed and excessive”.

• A ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on same-sex marriage, targeting six seats in Queensland and Western Australia with Coalition MPs with undeclared positions on the subject, finds support for same-sex marriage at over 50% in Hasluck, Moncrieff, Ryan, Swan and Tangney, and at 48% in Stirling with 42% opposed. Similar proportions of respondents favour a free vote being held in parliament “as soon as possible”.

And a whole bunch on preselection, where balls are already starting to roll ahead of a federal election still nearly two years away:

• Western Australia’s Liberal Party has confirmed Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Back. Brockman won 89 votes out of 131 at a vote of the party’s state council held on July 22, from a field that also included former state MPs Michael Sutherland and Mark Lewis.

• The New South Wales ALP’s Left faction has endorsed Tim Ayres, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, to take a factionally reserved Senate position presently occupied by Doug Cameron, who will not contest the next election. The Australian reports the ballot was boycotted by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, who were apparently angered by the AMWU’s lock on a seat that stands to be filled consecutively by three of the union’s leaders (George Campbell, Doug Cameron and now Tim Ayres).

• Samantha Hutchison of The Australian reports that Michael Danby, Labor’s member for Melbourne Ports since 1998, is “facing pressure to bow out” at the next election. Labor has held the seat since 1906, but Danby was given a two-pronged scare at the last election, only narrowly edging the Greens by 24,340 votes to 23,387 to survive to the final count, and then emerging with a 1.4% margin over the Liberals, down from 2.2% in 2013. According to the report, Ari Suss, a Linfox executive and former staffer to Steve Bracks who shares Danby’s Jewish background (together with Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Melbourne is one of two seats in the country where over 10% of the population identifies as Jewish). The Greens have already preselected their candidate from 2016, Steph Hodgins-May, whom Danby placed last on his how-to-vote card after she pulled out of a debate organised by Zionism Victoria.

• Katie Burgess of the Canberra Times reports preselection reforms in Labor’s Australian Capital Territory branch have been “criticised by the party’s right as a way for the left to gain control of a possible third federal seat”, which the territory stands to gain with the latest population-related entitlement determination. The changes have dispensed with requirements that members be branch members for at least 12 months and attend a certain number of meetings in a year to be eligible to vote in preselection ballots, which will reportedly triple the voter base. Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.

• Sky News reports that John Ruddick, a prominent proponent of reforms to democratise the party’s preselection process, as endorsed a fortnight ago at a special party convention, will challenge Trent Zimmerman for preselection in his seat of North Sydney. Zimmerman is a moderate factional operative, and one of the Liberals’ four openly gay federal MPs.

• State upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi has announced she will seek preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, setting up a contest with Lee Rhiannon should she choose to nominate again, which is yet to be determined.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

541 comments on “Sunday snippets”

Comments Page 3 of 11
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  1. Confessions

    The whole religious exemption thing is easy to unmask. Just put Jew or Black in place of gay and see how that looks.

  2. Ides of March @ #54 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:11 am

    Is it normal for party preselections to be completed/in progress this early? Or is it cos the Federal Govt is shaky.

    Don’t know about the normal timeline for preselections.

    I’m a Labor member in Pearce (marginal WA) and we’re starting the process for the candidate shortly, and will soon be starting to campaign for the Federal election.

    Incumbency is a massive advantage. First and foremost the incumbent has an income while they campaign, as a part of that job they are sought after to get out to community events and the, have a taxpayer funded campaign material advertising budget and are in the strongest position to solicit bribes donations to their re-election fund.

    To overcome this advantage, a challenger needs to get started early. In the recent state election, our candidate had quit work to campaign full-time many months (I can’t recall how many, it was at least 6) before the election.

  3. guytaur

    OK, I misunderstood your point.

    GG – these exemptions are in place already. If a religious denomination decides it won’t recognise same sex marriages and thus won’t apply the term ‘marriage’ to them, that’s their prerogative, just as at present some won’t recognise certain marriages which are otherwise legal.

    Religious considerations should not determine law – Render to Caesar what is Caesar’s. The essence of Christianity is to allow people to make their own choices, not to hedge them around with restrictions so it’s impossible to sin.

  5. What, have some of the geniuses in the media noticed that the Libs are proposing to rip off the public for millions just to solve their internal issues?

    Well done them. Only two years after it was obvious to anyone with a brain. Must be close to a record.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #95 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 8:11 am

    It’s interesting that there is some talk now about possible exclusions for Celebrants, vendors of products servicing SSM marriages and the like. So, a compromise position is beginning to emerge. I’m still hopeful that the name marriage will be removed from these proposed civil partnering arrangements.

    That would be the sensible solution that would gain more widespread support for the legislative changes to proceed.

    I most strongly disagree. The basic issue behind equality is the ability of everyone to fully participate in society.

    By carving out exemptions to any vendor who doesn’t want to service SSM is completely unacceptable in a society where arbitrary discrimination is otherwise unlawful. How acceptable would it be to add a clause to this bill allowing vendors to discriminate against Aboriginal people, Asians, blacks, interracial couples? It wouldn’t be and there would quite rightly be outrage. This is one instance where the perfect needs to be the enemy of the good.

  8. victoria
    Fess

    Thanks for linking Real Time show. The Obama segment was good

    ****************************

    Victoria – have you read LM’s twitter account today by any chance ????

  9. Ne Temere is t Catholic doctrine which declares certain otherwise legal marriages to be invalid and not performable by a priest
    In NSW in 1924 the Legislative assembly came within 1 vote of supporting a bill by “lemonade” Ley to make it an offence to refuse to recognise a legal marriage. Priests would have been forced to marry divorcees or face legal sanction.
    This continued to be an issue at the 1925 election which Lang just won after a very fiery sectarian campaign

  13. lanesainty: .@AMEquality has put out a Q&A on Dean Smith’s marriage bill. Useful reading! pic.twitter.com/Q2SiMBdCB7

    I used for the test.

    and

  18. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Yes. I have been checking out Her timeline, as well as Schindler, Taylor etc.

    ********************************************

    About 4 hrs or so there were a couple of threads about a young Ivanka – if true …..

  19. Re Guytaur @10:53.

    Creation of a category of ‘religious marriage celebrant’ – that actually looks like a sensible compromise.

    On the other hand, there is no need for a category of ‘religious cake vendor’.

  20. MarkDiStef: Burke: “We will not use this issue (marriage equality) as an issue of confidence in the government…”

    Oh dear there goes Abbott’s plans

  22. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Are you referring to Ivanka and her modelling career?

    **************************************

    That was part of the thread …… it was the implications that went with it.

  23. Steve777 @ #119 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 10:59 am

    Creation of a category of ‘religious marriage celebrant’ – that actually looks like a sensible compromise.

    On the other hand, there is no need for a category of ‘religious cake vendor’.

    Nor ‘religious county clerk’, or ‘religious healthcare provider’, or pretty much any other category whose services aren’t a direct function of some religion or other.

  24. I perceive a difference between priests and providers of goods / services. A priest recognises a binding in accordance with the precepts of their religion, the state recognition of that as marriage is done as a convenience to the couple. As long as the state provides an avenue for those not recognised by priests that’s fine. A priest can’t perform a ceremony in violation of their faith because such a thing is definitionally invalid.

    A provider of goods / services generally generally does not provide an abstract recognition that can be invalidated by a lack of belief. A cake is a cake, flowers are flowers and photographs are photographs.

    There are probably some exceptions like someone writing wedding vows or hand crafting wedding rings that have some symbolic ceremonial value to their faith or such but I can’t think of many even hypothetically.

  26. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    I will take a closer look!

    ***************************************************

    I have been trying to find as much as I can about this ‘model agency’ stuff – and if true then money laundering is small potatoes. LM has made a lot of comments about who/what is on tape …. how much is true or total BS ??????

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/6/1578544/-The-Untold-Story-of-Trump-Model-Management-A-Daily-Kos-Exclusive-Part-1

  27. PhoenixRed

    Went through the timeline. Just so many moving parts. Time will tell.
    I Keep saying House of Cards is a fairytale by comparison!!

  28. Elaugaufein @ #126 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 11:15 am

    There are probably some exceptions like someone writing wedding vows or hand crafting wedding rings that have some symbolic ceremonial value to their faith or such but I can’t think of many even hypothetically.

    No, you had it right in the previous paragraph. Vows are vows, wedding rings are wedding rings, and one paying customer has as much right to purchase them as any other. There’s no room for any exceptions beyond ‘I’m an official spokesperson of Religion X, which is an officially recognized and not-for-profit religion which expressly forbids gay marriage, so I cannot conduct a same-sex marriage ceremony’.

    Anyone else (and especially anyone else operating on a for-profit basis) has no excuse whatsoever. They can learn to deal with gay people, or go find another line of work.

  29. Mueller team zeroes in on Trump financial crimes because they’re faster to prosecute: CNN

    “Investigators are delving into financial crimes including some unconnected to the election,” said Brown. “Investigators have combed through the list of shell companies and buyers of Trump-branded real estate properties. They’ve scrutinized the roster of tenants at Trump Tower in Manhattan — reaching back several years.”

    Brown said that investigators are zeroing in on financial crimes because they present “a more concrete path to prosecution.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/mueller-grand-jury-zeroes-in-on-trump-financial-crimes-because-theyre-faster-to-prosecute-cnn/

  30. So much time and words wasted on ME
    Just get it over and done with so we can move on to the matters that should preoccupy Federal Parliament.
    This is the ghost of John Howard lingering on.

  31. PhoenixRed

    I am inclined to agree with the observations of LM and ors. Law enforcement are aiming to get the whole cabal at the same time so the succession of the next President is not tainted

  32. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    I am inclined to agree with the observations of LM and ors
    Law enforcement are aiming to get the whole cabal at the same time so the succession of the next President is not tainted

    **************************************

    LM made a few ‘cracks’ about Pence today related to his proclivities ……and she wrote him, Ryan, Sessions and McConnell off many months ago ….. lots of rumours we might have President ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis if the dominos start to fall ….

  34. phoenixRED

    Mueller team zeroes in on Trump financial crimes because they’re faster to prosecute: CNN

    Because they may actually exist or did the dog eat their Russiagate homework ?

  35. ‘Stay tuned, there’s more coming’: Ex-FBI agent says Mueller investigation is blowing up fast

    CNN national security analyst and Associate Dean of Yale Law School and former FBI agent Asha Rangappa said on Saturday that the decision by Special Counsel Bob Mueller’s team to focus on President Donald Trump’s financial deals with Russia stretching back years does not bode well for the White House.

    So this is going to be one stage of many as I explained to some people, if this were a TV drama, this might be Episode 4. So, stay tuned. There’s more coming.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/stay-tuned-theres-more-coming-ex-fbi-agent-says-mueller-investigation-is-blowing-up-fast/

  36. Surely targetting Trump’s finances is the gateway to uncovering the extent of collusion between his campaign and the Russian govt?

  38. confessions @ #136 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 12:09 pm

    Surely targetting Trump’s finances is the gateway to uncovering the extent of collusion between his campaign and the Russian govt?

    Also, this would destroy Trump’s pretense of ever being a great businessman – it would become clear he’s actually a lousy businessman who has been propped up by Russian money for decades. This might in fact be the best way to get him to simply resign. I wonder if that could be the end-game they are after?

  39. Player One

    Also, this would destroy Trump’s pretense of ever being a great businessman – it would become clear he’s actually a lousy businessman who has been propped up by Russian money for decades.

    ***********************************

    Very astute comment Player One ……

  40. Simon Katich @ #137 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 12:15 pm

    Energy Wars!
    **The Blockchain Energy System Is Going To Be Great For Consumers**
    https://www.fastcompany.com/3065701/the-blockchain-energy-system-is-going-to-be-great-for-consumers
    I have been enjoying this website for a while and this article is about the P2P energy market trials in WA.

    Throwing “blockchain technology” into the mix for no apparent reason is a fairly clear indicator that this is simply designed to appeal to the suckers. And in the solar business there seem to be an awful lot of them.

  41. Clerics are still trying to hang on to the right to define marriage as a religious rite. It’s not. The registration of unions between couples is a civil procedure, not a religious one. Anyone that wishes to exercise this civil power should be required to offer this service to any eligible couple.

  42. briefly
    In that case the state should offer Churches the chance to not have their marriage ceremonies recognized by the state.

    (Given the confusion and inconvenience this would cause for a large number of people, I do not foresee that happening)

  43. E
    I perceive a difference between priests and providers of goods / services. A priest recognises a binding in accordance with the precepts of their religion, the state recognition of that as marriage is done as a convenience to the couple.

    This is mistaken. A marriage occurs when the existence of a voluntary and exclusive union between two eligible persons is registered on the civil record. It is nothing else. The rites carried out in a religious setting do not constitute a marriage nor are such events recognised by the state as a marriage. They are totally without legal effect.

  44. P1
    Block chain technology isn’t being considered for no reason. The underlying trust / verification algorithms used in block chain systems are excellent for Peer 2 Peer transfers of data that need confirmation, like how much energy is being exchanged between locations in a micro grid.

  45. Briefly
    I just said exactly the same thing. It’s the state recognition of the marriage that is meaningful from a legal perspective. The church function is irrelevant but the state give the church the power to simultaneously perform the state recognition, so that people don’t have to have both a religious and civil marriage.

  46. Elaugaufein
    briefly
    In that case the state should offer Churches the chance to not have their marriage ceremonies recognized by the state.

    Their rites are not recognised and have not been since the institution of civil marriage in the 1830s. The clerics would like to have their rites recognised as marriages, which would allow them to define what a marriage is, who can marry, who can divorce..and so on. Very fortunately, they do not have this power.

    Religious bodies are not quasi-state organs. They are completely separate from the State and subordinate to it it.

  47. Elaugaufein
    Briefly
    I just said exactly the same thing. It’s the state recognition of the marriage that is meaningful from a legal perspective. The church function is irrelevant but the state give the church the power to simultaneously perform the state recognition, so that people don’t have to have both a religious and civil marriage.

    You have it back to front. The rites carried out in a church in themselves are entirely without legal effect. Clerics are also able to obtain a delegation to witness the civil registration of unions. It is this that gives legal substance to the process and nothing else. Clerics perform two roles here, but only one of them, the civil one, is relevant from a legal point of view.

  48. briefly
    If you are married in one of the major churches, you also perform the bits and pieces needed to be recognized as a marriage by the state. Priests are recognized as being able to perform those functions (as are civil celebrants) whereas for example I am not.

  50. Elaugaufein @ #144 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 12:30 pm

    P1
    Block chain technology isn’t being considered for no reason. The underlying trust / verification algorithms used in block chain systems are excellent for Peer 2 Peer transfers of data that need confirmation, like how much energy is being exchanged between locations in a micro grid.

    Unfortunately, this isn’t the way electricity grids actually work.

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