BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Essential Research’s recent results have driven an improvement in the Coalition’s poll trend position, most evidently in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a further narrowing in Labor’s lead this week on the back of weaker numbers from Essential Research, which provide the only new data point other than the Galaxy poll from Western Australia, which has no bearing on the national total. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one in Victoria and three in ever-volatile Queensland, but loses one in Western Australia courtesy of Galaxy. Labor’s relative softness in Victoria, where a swing is actually now recorded in favour of the Coalition, was noted by me yesterday in an article for Crikey. This was based on calculations made before the latest numbers were added, which have caused Labor’s two-party total there to weaken still further – no doubt a tad excessively. I’m also not entirely confident about the extent to which the Greens are recorded as having fallen, since the trendline has dipped below any of the individual data points, which sometimes happens when there’s a sudden change. In other words, they’re down, but probably not by quite that much. No new results for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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  1. Another “unless it’s overwhelmingly in the US’s favour” –

    US officially tells UN it wants out of Paris climate deal

    … the State Department said the U.S. will continue to participate in international meetings and negotiations on current and future climate change deals. The next meeting is in Bonn, Germany, in November.

    Trump is “open to re-engaging in the Paris Agreement if the United States can identify terms that are more favorable to it, its business, its workers, its people and its taxpayers,” the department said.

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