BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Essential Research’s recent results have driven an improvement in the Coalition’s poll trend position, most evidently in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a further narrowing in Labor’s lead this week on the back of weaker numbers from Essential Research, which provide the only new data point other than the Galaxy poll from Western Australia, which has no bearing on the national total. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one in Victoria and three in ever-volatile Queensland, but loses one in Western Australia courtesy of Galaxy. Labor’s relative softness in Victoria, where a swing is actually now recorded in favour of the Coalition, was noted by me yesterday in an article for Crikey. This was based on calculations made before the latest numbers were added, which have caused Labor’s two-party total there to weaken still further – no doubt a tad excessively. I’m also not entirely confident about the extent to which the Greens are recorded as having fallen, since the trendline has dipped below any of the individual data points, which sometimes happens when there’s a sudden change. In other words, they’re down, but probably not by quite that much. No new results for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

955 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  13. Fess

    Bill Maher Extra = sheet. Glad I didn’t listen/watch earlier.

    Gunna hit the sack soon, and try to finish Rommel. Just up to the good part where he is somewhat implicated in the plot to assassinate Hitler, despite, apparently, being totally oblivious to it.

  16. Right, I’m off too, and going as well. Just checked out who was being interviewed on Insiders tomorrow, and as it’s Dean Smith, don’t think I’ll bother.

  17. Monica Lynagh

    8% So extremely ‘ordinary’. As it said at the start of the Quiz.

    “Are you an “ordinary” Australian?
    If you answer YES to all 12 questions, you’re one of the rare “ordinary” Australians.
    (There are only 5,782 of you.)”

  20. poroti
    Sorry, just caught your post. Blessed if I can understand why if there are only 5,782 of you, that you’re one of the rare ‘ordinary’ Australians. Perhaps my understanding of ordinary is lacking, as I don’t compute rare as representative of ordinary.
    Maybe it’s my warped mind, as after a long time working in mental health (now there’s an oxymoron), whenever someone said they just wanted to be normal, I’d reply “You find normal, bring ’em in, as I’ve never seen it”.

  23. Monica Lynagh

    I am not one of the 5,782 , those are who would be in the “ordinary” category in all 12 questions. So I suppose lower scores = more “ordinary” . Which means of course when pollies talk about “ordinary” Australians they talk about a group of SFA people due to people fitting into so many different categories.

  25. Seeing as Trump got into a twitter war with Nordstroms over the store dropping Ivanka’s clothing line during an actual intelligence briefing, this shouldn’t come as a surprise.

    Among his biggest challenges was holding the attention of the president. In classified briefings, Trump would frequently flit between subjects. “We moved very quickly from news to intelligence to policy with very little clarity on which lanes we were in,” said a U.S. official who took part in the briefings. “McMaster would act like the tangents didn’t happen and go back to Point 2 on his card.”

    Trump had little time for in-depth briefings on Afghanistan’s history, its complicated politics or its seemingly endless civil war. Even a single page of bullet points on the country seemed to tax the president’s attention span on the subject, said senior White House officials.

    “I call the president the two-minute man,” said one Trump confidant. “The president has patience for a half-page.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-fight-over-trumps-afghan-policy-has-become-an-argument-over-the-meaning-of-america-first/2017/08/04/f2790c80-785f-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_mcmaster-214pm-variant%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.194212f9f40b

  27. kezza2 @ #892 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 4:02 pm

    Grimace

    Rather than repeat your lengthy post at 5.51 pm

    All I can say is: Sheesh, how did you manage to remember/recall all the options?

    As I said the other day, my robocall, in McMillan, was delivered at staccato pace, and gave no time for any considered thought.

    Besides, when I hesitated, and didn’t choose within the time frame, I was thanked for my “non”-contribution.

    T’was only then that I was told it was a poll by the Liberal Party of Victoria

    I copy/pasted as I went.

    I didn’t copy the significant amount of demographic questions, I was worried the post wouldn’t upload as it was.

  30. poroti

    …So I suppose lower scores = more “ordinary” .

    It’s the other way around. The higher the score the more “ordinary”, in the sense that the respondent more closely resembles the largest group for any class.

  31. I think the only answer I gave that place me among the largest group was the one on religious affiliation. In every other case, I was not ordinary, but the information did not say just how far the ordinary I am.

  33. Re that YouGov list (thanks for posting grimace, very interesting to see), asking Pref PM after the question about what a PM should resign over is silly.

  34. briefly

    I re did it and took more notice of whether I part of the largest group and turns out I mostly was. 8/12 . So it looks lower odds for scoring more “ordinary” and so “You are as unique as a Broome pearl.” 🙂

  38. [grimace
    Questions from You Gov:
    …

    8. Generally speaking, do you think too many issues are being proposed for referendums, not enough, or it is about right?

    Not enough issues are being proposed for referendums, and the people should be allowed to vote directly on more issues
    The current balance is about right
    Too many issues are being proposed for referendums, and Parliament should make more decisions itself
    Don’t know

    …]

    Thanks grimace,

    This question stood out as being strange.

    It seems the to me that the people writing the question don’t understand the difference between a referendum and a plebiscite.

  46. confessions
    briefly:

    Do you not speak English in your home?

    ..oh, plus that one too.

    (Usually, I mutter to myself….unintelligibly)

  49. I redid the quiz, took down the proportions and calculated the probability that someone responded 12/12 yes: 8.69 x10^-6

    That is versus 0/12 yes: 0.000387

    Evaluating the rest would be more involved, and I could also probably (in both senses of the word) deduce each of your specific answers based on your responses, given the variation in the truth probabilities.. but it’s getting late 🙂

    Night all!

  50. No surprise –

    More than six months into Donald Trump’s young presidency, optimism among his core supporters — and American voters at large — is starting to fade.

    After Trump’s surprise victory in November, six in 10 American voters said they were mostly optimistic about his presidency. But that number slipped to 52% in March and 43% today — now 10 percentage points underwater, according to new polling this week from Quinnipiac University.

    Indeed, a majority of registered voters (53%) now say they are mostly pessimistic about the next few years of Trump’s time in office.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/04/politics/trump-supporters-optimism-wear-off/index.html

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