Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. confessions @ #1400 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 10:43 pm

    Turnbull’s grovelling makes me cringe.

    Me too. Imagine then just what the Aus PM grovelling has been for events passed? The so-called War on Terror phone calls with Bush / Howard must’ve been doozies.

    I’ll bet that even Howard would have a slight cringe on reading this leak. They wouldn’t still have a transcript of his calls with GWB – would they?

  2. Noesterrw:

    I mentioned the Howard govt because obviously as we now know the US govt spun a lot of shit to Aus and the world at the time.

  3. Puffy, The Magic Dragon.
    My 17yr old Tenterfield Terrier, Chelsea aka Olde Woman Chelsea passed away in her sleep in my bed early this morning. I woke to find she had passed away. I am glad she had the peaceful end, fitting for all her loyalty and affection for 17 years. Vale Chelsea.

    So sorry to hear that, but a wonderful way to go. They always leave a huge hole…

  4. Puffy
    So sorry to hear about little Chelsea. Sad for you but the best way to go, warm and loved beside our life companion. A good age too.

  5. The call transcripts date to February. Is the leaker still there or was it one of Trump’s sacked staff who might have a few more goodies?

    MT comes across as a cold hard expletive deleted acknowledging that these people are being held purely for political reasons. But I guess that is the country we live in.

    The bigger story is that the White House really is seriously unstable.

  6. Malcolm Turnbull is a cold hard barsted.
    Norwester @ #1408 Friday, August 4th, 2017 – 1:45 am

    The call transcripts date to February. Is the leaker still there or was it one of Trump’s sacked staff who might have a few more goodies?

    MT comes across as a cold hard expletive deleted acknowledging that these people are being held purely for political reasons. But I guess that is the country we live in.

    The bigger story is that the White House really is seriously unstable.

  7. One wonders what those other little future favours were that MT promised. He wouldn’t have mentioned that unless he had a briefing list in front of him.

  8. William Bowe @ #1389 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 11:36 pm

    That is a good idea. We should do that too. You are worse than I am.

    Taken in context, that statement is not as crazy as I thought it would be; considering that it’s Trump’s response to Turnbull saying that he’s basically keeping thoroughly vetted and harmless people in indefinite detention purely for the public spectacle it creates.

    To say nothing of his not-so-subtle implication that the U.S. just pretend to honor the agreement and interview people but then not take any of them. Which is basically what they actually did.

  9. If it was the leaked private call from a Labor PM it would be all over the Australian with every nuance dissected to the enth degree.

    Turnbull looks awfully exposed as his troops do the phones for Mondays very big ballot.

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