Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing.

    No surprise Scotty got nowhere with that idea.

  2. Trump Totally Embarrasses Himself While Trying To Talk Tough On North Korea

    Donald Trump was trying to talk tough to North Korea, but his response to a reporter’s question revealed a president without a plan who doesn’t appear to have the slightest clue of how to handle a looming potential crisis.

    Trump said, “We’ll handle North Korea. We’ll be able to handle North Korea. It will be handled. We handle everything.”

    North Korea recently tested missiles that could reach major US cities, and Trump’s response is nothing more than, ‘it will be handled.”

    The President’s response was embarrassing, and if Pyongyang is watching, they are laughing at Trump, because this is an expert in the art of self-humiliation.

  3. Majority Tells Trump No Obamacare Repeal As They Want Congress To Move On From Healthcare

    A majority of Americans are ready to move on from healthcare reform at this point after the U.S. Senate’s effort to dismantle Obamacare failed on Friday, according to an exclusive Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.

    The July 28-29 poll of more than 1,130 Americans, conducted after the Republican-led effort collapsed in the Senate, found that 64 percent said they wanted to keep Obamacare, either “entirely as is” or after fixing “problem areas.” That is up from 54 percent in January.

  4. Chaos Grows In White House As Trump Fires Anthony Scaramucci As Communications Director

    Anthony Scaramucci didn’t last two weeks working for Trump, as it is being reported that Trump is set to fire his new communications director.

    Scaramucci was a horrible hire, who was unqualified for the position of communications, but he was hired because Trump liked the way that he defended him on cable news. The tug of war between Trump’s instability and Chief of Staff Kelly has begun.

  5. ‘We laugh a lot about it’: Trump cabinet officials make fun of Rick Perry’s ignorance about nuclear arsenal

    Rick Perry was surprised to learn that his job as secretary of energy would place him in charge of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and his fellow cabinet members like to tease him about it.

    “Secretary Perry is a wonderful guy,” Zinke told the magazine. “I think he thought his department was more about energy than … science. Mostly, it’s science and, of course, they also have responsibility of our nuclear arsenal.”

  6. Trump’s White House is full of tabloid rumors and accusations about Russia, mistresses and money

    The White House has devolved over the last six months into a hotbed of intrigue, innuendo and boulder-sized rumors seemingly more appropriate for tabloid newspapers than the rich annals of history. With various administration officials publicly attacking each other, President Donald Trump and his team have seen their dirty laundry thrown around Washington and the world, with few policy accomplishments to show for all their drama.

  7. ‘I’ve had bouts of food poisoning that lasted longer’: Internet laughs at the end of Anthony ‘Mooch’ Scaramucci

    “10 days after a crude verbal tirade and even as new chief tries to tame chaos,” New York Times WH correspondent Michael D. Shear tweeted.

    “Whoa… that’s gotta be record-setting,” another user said. “Maybe less hair grease next time?”

  8. ‘He’s losing it fast’: Republican predicts Trump will be ‘out of office before the midterms’

    Economist and class warrior Robert Reich revealed a shocking conversation he had with a Republican member of Congress in a Facebook post Monday.

    “They’re convinced Trump is out of his gourd,” the Republican revealed. “Remember what I told you at the start of this circus? They planned to use Trump’s antics for cover, to get done what they most wanted – big tax cuts, rollbacks of regulations, especially financial. They’d work with Pence behind the scenes and forget the crazy uncle in the attic.”

  9. Anthony Scaramucci abruptly removed as White House communications chief after chaotic first week

    Scaramucci was removed from the position just 10 days after it was announced he would be the news communications chief.

    Sources told the New York Times that Trump’s new chief of staff John Kelly had pushed for the ouster of Scaramucci, who had boasted about reporting directly to the president.

  10. I was reading some comments by Trump supporters and it is all the fault of
    A. The media.
    B. Trump’s staff who keep letting him down.

    Earlier on of course, his supporters were saying it didn’t matter he lacked experience as he had picked excellent staff.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Quite an extensive digest today!

    Peter Hartcher has written a good article in which he gives some advice to Boris Johnson.
    And Susie O’Brien tells us that it’s time to farewell the flawed Royals. Google.
    Turnbull has been gazumped by Shorten at a time when the republican debate is ready to be reignited. If he still wants to make it happen, there’s work to be done says this historian from the ANU.
    Poof! There goes Scarface just 11 days after Trump installed him.
    A majority of voters think economic inequality in Australia is increasing, and also favour the adoption of four-year parliamentary terms, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
    Chris Cubbage opines that rather than reducing our vulnerability to a terror attack the effort of Sydney Airport yesterday actually increased it! He also questions the motives behind the sudden changes.
    Jennifer Hewett tends to agree. We need more direct talking on the terror threat rather than increased airport security. Google.
    Security personnel at Australian airports lack the “major ingredients” to protect air travellers, including the ability to visually identify someone about to launch an attack, a leading aviation safety expert warns.
    Surprise, surprise! Mark Kenny reports a $1 billion concessional loan to the controversial Adani Carmichael mine project in Queensland’s Galilee Basin could expose taxpayers to a high risk of losing their money, according to an independent business analysis.

  12. Section 4 . . .

    Senate crossbenchers will move to refer One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts to the High Court if the government hesitates, all but guaranteeing his eligibility will be decided by the court.
    Labor’s proposal to tax certain trusts is getting a lot onto the table. By all means protect a company or personal assets but still pay a fair share of tax.
    Discretionary trusts are grossly unfair to other taxpayers and cause large losses of revenue. The policy Labor proposes isn’t perfect but it’s a good start says this professor of taxation law.
    Let’s hope this court case seeking to release critical communications surrounding the dismissal of the government in 1975 succeeds.
    Professor Richard Mulgan writes that high ethical standards always come at a cost. If politicians and the public want a public service committed to impartiality and the rule of law, which they do, they must put up with rules and procedures designed to uphold these values. Conflict of interest is a precursor to corruption and needs to be treated very seriously indeed.
    NBN Co’s chief executive has launched a blistering attack on the telecommunications industry, blaming an “over competitive” market and “land grab environment” for the slow speeds experienced by consumers. He has a point, but the NBN is by no means blameless.
    John Davidson tells us that the NBN is far worse than we think. Google.
    Low-income and disadvantaged Australians are bearing the brunt of energy price rises caused by policy uncertainty, a new report has found. The Australian Council of Social Service and the Brotherhood of St Laurence have warned they are receiving harrowing reports since steep rises in wholesale energy prices began in mid-2016.
    Former Anglican Archbishop of Adelaide Ian George is at the centre of a major SA Police investigation over the role he played in disgraced St Peter’s College priest John Mountford fleeing Australia in 1992. In a shock development in the St Peter’s College abuse case, detectives are investigating if any of those involved in Mountford’s rapid exit from Adelaide perverted the course of justice or impeded an investigation into his activities. Google.

  13. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox introduces a new test for fair dinkum Aussie pollies.

    Paul Zanetti on energy policy bickering.

    Leading causes of death in perspective.

    More from Matt Golding on Australian citizenship.

    John Shakespeare farewells the great Les Murray.

    Sean Leahy on the escalation of airport security.

    And Leahy gives us a very jealous Malcolm Turnbull.

    Leahy has been busy. Here he looks at Infrastructure Australia.

    David Rowe with Barnaby’s water problem.

    David Pope takes a turn at cruelling Barnaby Joyce.
    Pat Clement has Trump reinventing the wheel.

  14. Good Morning

    Implosion the theme of the week.

    RobbieGramer: Almost a year ago today, @mollymotoole interviewed Gen. John Kelly, who warned generals to stay away from politics.…

    The knives are sharpening for May in the UK

    New Zealand looks like it is about to replace their PM

    Meanwhie here at home the divisions over marriage equality could be terminal for Turnbull.

    Wheres the popcorn!!

  15. Let’s try some bifurcation.

    Section 2 . . .

    Paul McGeough writes that in describing how nasty the Washington-Moscow relationship has become, analysts are reaching back a full century, to the Bolshevik Revolution and the ensuing Russian Civil War, when the US embassy in Moscow was shuttered for 15 years.
    Sean Carney writes that a system informed by a lack of trust will ultimately turn our elections into events where we’re motivated more by a desire to stop things than to make them happen. Google.
    The Australian Institute of Architects has a good swipe at Gladys over her government’s priorities when it comes to the Powerhouse Museum and Western Sydney.
    The decision by the Berejiklian government to award a major role in the state’s container deposit scheme to Coca-Cola Amatil and other companies opposed to it was an act of stupidity, the NSW Greens say.

  16. Section 2a . . .

    The SMH editorialises that Berejiklian has been under fire for backdowns on local council mergers and a fire and emergency services levy. With those about-turns, a perception grows that she is about only winning the next state election in 2019.–and-the-premier-20170730-gxlzhe.html
    Since 1995 the price of new cars has barely risen in Australia, which is one of the reasons why, despite stagnant wages, the love affair endures writes Greg Jericho.
    It’s not an easy life in retail.
    Gladys Berejiklian faces yet another byelection within weeks, after Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson announced her retirement from Parliament.

  17. Section 3 . . .

    Next Tuesday’s party room meeting could be a doozy for Turnbull as pressure builds for a SSM free vote.
    David Crowe writes about the showdown as more MPs break ranks n SSM. Google.
    Michelle Grattan says ” Just like Tony Abbott in 2015, Malcolm Turnbull is heading into a perfect storm on same-sex marriage. And as it was for Abbott, it has the potential to be very dangerous for him. There is a big question over whether Turnbull can keep control of this debate. More to the point, perhaps, is whether he’ll even try.”
    Katy Gallagher calls for the regulation of debt management firms. She says some are preying on the vulnerable like vultures.

  18. Section 3a . . .

    In a lengthy contribution Norm Abjorensen examines the historical role of plebiscites and direct democracy. He is not at all keen on the government’s proposed SSM plebiscite.
    Professor Jenny Stewart calls for a Chief Engineer to complement the Chief Scientist when it comes to managing the county’s energy system.
    The Coalition is considering forcing all migrants seeking permanent residency to spend time in Australia on provisional visas as part of streamlined measures that would cut costs. Under the proposed system new provisional visa holders might not have the same access to welfare payments and services permanent residents are entitled to. Google.
    And there’s this. The government’s own multicultural council says proposed changes to toughen the English language test for prospective citizens are too harsh and especially unfair on refugees.
    The Turnbull government has put the brakes on calls from former public service leaders for a new Coombs-style royal commission on government administration, saying a long review would be a waste of money.

  19. Section 5 . . .

    As the Victorian parliament prepares to debate legalising voluntary assisted dying, Christians, like many others in the community, are having to wrestle with their own responses to this issue. While some parts of the church have clearly and consistently voiced opposition, there are some exceptions.
    How free toys (pester power) are used to sell unhealthy foods.
    Having poured scorn and not an indecent amount of bile upon the refugee deal between the Obama Administration and Canberra, U.S. President Donald Trump was never going to make things easy for the resettlement of various groups held on Nauru and Manus Island.,10551
    Before you grill up another burger to end a perfect summer day, you should know that if you got that ground beef from the supermarket there’s a good chance the meat from that patty came from at least 100 different cows.

  20. Section 5a . . .

    The Guardian reveals that the Australian government “dumped so much fucking money” on a company behind a taxpayer-funded campaign to deter asylum seekers arriving by boat that it made more than US$277,000 in profit for three days’ work.
    Police in the southern Philippines killed 15 people, including a city mayor, days after president Rodrigo Duterte ordered them to escalate a crackdown on drugs that has left thousands of Filipinos dead. What con one say about this?
    NAB is making significant changes to its incentives scheme for employees. I am of the firm belief that incentive and bonus schemes drive sub-optimal behaviour in organisations.
    Supermarket giant Coles has sparked the ire of shoppers with dietary requirements amid claims the formula for the supermarket’s ‘Coles’ branded blocks of dark chocolate has been revised to include milk solids. Shoppers started to call out the supermarket over the weekend on social media, with thousands of people reacting to the news that the chocolate blocks – a favourite treat of the lactose intolerant and vegan communities – suddenly contains milk products in the ingredients list.

  21. BK

    Its amazing how the incompetence of governments is making your work harder. Thank you for another excellent Dawn Patrol 🙂

  22. MalMaiden: EVERYONE opining on Shorten’s income splitting trusts attack should declare whether they or their families use them (we didn’t, and don’t).

    MichaelPascoe01: I’ve been advised I should consider one. I’ve declined.…

  23. AlanJones: It is chaos and mutiny in Canberra let me assure you. I have spoken to Senior Cabinet Ministers who tell me Turnbull is gone #auspol

  24. Appears it on .Radio top of the hour news Malcontents trumble to be rolled over SSM when parliament returns.
    If SSM passes Dutton in with hunt as dep. what a combination.

    Popcorn futures set to rise

  25. The Story Gets More Insane As Jared And Ivanka Brought In The Mooch To Whack Priebus

    “Jared and Ivanka brought in Scaramucci as an instrument of destruction against Reince Priebus, according to multiple sources. He was used as a tool to end Priebus’ tenure in the corner office. A source familiar with Jared and Ivanka’s thinking said they’re fully supportive of the general and will follow his lead. They were irritated by Scaramucci’s comments to The New Yorker, but from their perspective, he served his primary purpose: destroying Reince.”

    It doesn’t matter who the chief of staff and communications director are. The problem begins and ends with Trump and his family.

  26. BK, appreciate your work as always

    On my ipad, the links in your posts don’t show up as clickable links. I have to copy/paste to a new tab. Could you try 2 carriage returns between each item rather than 1? Which seems to work for me

  27. Ph RD

    Trump said, “We’ll handle North Korea. We’ll be able to handle North Korea. It will be handled. We handle everything.”

    “It’ll be a huge handle, a great handle …”

  28. JB_AU: For a Government focused on “jobs and growth” @TurnbullMalcolm’s sure has spent a lot of time stopping loving people choosing to marry.

  29. jmodoh: #BREAKING: Andrew Little standing down as leader of the NZ Labour Party. @SkyNewsAust #NZPol

    Sorry it was Labour with leadership in NZ

  30. More chaos and dysfunction! I wonder if Comical Ali will return.

    President Trump on Monday removed Anthony Scaramucci from his role as White House communications director just days after the New York financier was named to the job — a move made at the request of new White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, according to two people with knowledge of the decision.

    Scaramucci’s brief tenure in the role had been marked by turmoil as he feuded publicly with then-White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. Scaramucci’s arrival at the White House prompted press secretary Sean Spicer to resign in protest.

  31. Thanks BK I think all your posts came through.
    This is telling seeing as the writer is Michelle Grattan, on SSM.

    ‘There is a big question over whether Turnbull can keep control of this debate. More to the point, perhaps, is whether he’ll even try.’

    While the issue dujour is same sex marriage, Turnbull’s position, do as little as possible, is the case across all policies.

  32. Seems the mooch had a 10 day power trip only to be employed ,now unemployed,manage to lose a wife and 2 children 1 only days old ,not a bad effort for less than 2 weeks.

  33. CTar1

    I may have missed one of your posts, but I gather you might be having a little difficulty reading PB on your smartphone. I’m finding it so frustrating I might have to give up overnight. Some text is so small it’s almost unreadable, and with a touch sensitive screen if I accidentally press ‘back’ (or the dog does!) there is no way in hell I can find my place again.

  34. I am very amused that Libs are refusing to say where their info on bombing plot came from, when media have already said it was the British.

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