Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. When President Trump on Wednesday signed a bill that curtails his ability to lift sanctions against Russia, he issued a signing statement challenging the constitutionality of several provisions in the new law that restrict his executive powers.

    “While I favor tough measures to punish and deter aggressive and destabilizing behavior by Iran, North Korea, and Russia, this legislation is significantly flawed,” he said. “In its haste to pass this legislation, the Congress included a number of clearly unconstitutional provisions.”

    Here is what you need to know.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/us/politics/trump-signing-statement-russia-sanctions.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    IOW Trump is pissed that Congress has curtailed his executive powers and is using a once-rare presidential measure to get around the parliament. More proof continues to mount that Trump is in the can for Putin.

  4. [alias
    Critical to Monday’s meeting will be the legal advice they are seeking as to whether they can conduct a postal plebiscite without legislation. What would happen if they got the defectors on side with that – and proceeded? Would large portions of the electorate boycott that vote – and where would that leave things?    ]

    With George’s record you can nearly guarantee the opposite advice would the correct one.

    I think if they try to go down this route there will be a legal challenge.

  5. alias @ #1350 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 9:58 pm

    Critical to Monday’s meeting will be the legal advice they are seeking as to whether they can conduct a postal plebiscite without legislation. What would happen if they got the defectors on side with that – and proceeded? Would large portions of the electorate boycott that vote – and where would that leave things?

    Is there a specific/official definition of a Plebiscite?

    Maybe the Party Harmony compromise is a public funded bulldust operation that binds no one but fulfills the Party policy they took to the last election.

  6. Surely its not about becoming a “republic” its about Identifying an Australian head of State. Australia is already a republic, only with a historical ceremonial HoS. While the Queen is called a “monarch” British kings lost their monarchal power in the 17th century. Its just nostalgia.

    Parliamentary democracies like Australia are more “republican” than the USA which is an elected constitutional monarchy.

    The only reason the ALP champions the “republic” and increasing the length of parliaments, is that these “reforms” involve either no diminution of politicians powers or lowers even more their accountability to the voters.

    These proposals should be part of proposals for real improvements in our participatory democracy, of higher levels of accountability, of greater checks and balances on our extraordinarily indulged, arrogant and corrupt political class.

  9. alias:

    The plebiscite isn’t binding anyway, so at best the result for opponents of SSM is heads I win, tails you lose.

    A plebiscite is a total WOFTAM.

  11. GG:

    Perhaps in Melbourne. I’d be surprised if it garnered much attention anywhere else. I certainly don’t remember Labor campaigning on it as a front and centre issue over here.

  13. My 17yr old Tenterfield Terrier, Chelsea aka Olde Woman Chelsea passed away in her sleep in my bed early this morning. I woke to find she had passed away. I am glad she had the peaceful end, fitting for all her loyalty and affection for 17 years. Vale Chelsea.

  14. confessions @ #1361 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 10:16 pm

    GG:

    Perhaps in Melbourne. I’d be surprised if it garnered much attention anywhere else. I certainly don’t remember Labor campaigning on it as a front and centre issue over here.

    That’s probably true

    But, the moral high ground here is that we “made a solemn promise” to the electorate.
    So, the Turnbull response has got to be some sort of public vote involvement that commits no one to anything.
    It’s all padding imho.

  15. >blockquote>Fess
    A plebiscite is a total WOFTAM.

    Especially given a number of conservatives have pledged to disregard a plebiscite result that favours ssm.

  16. I’m a strong supporter of marriage equality. But I’m an even stronger opponent of plebiscites and the like. Parliaments and governments are elected to lead – to make decisions for the benefit of the nation and to explain to the public and bring them along with its decisions.

    If it is wrong, the public can elect a different government which can amend or repeal a law that the people simply don’t want.

    But asking the public in a formal plebiscite, postal vote or whatever about the direction of policy, other than where required to change the Australian Constitution, is just plain wrong. For starters, what makes one issue more appropriate for public consultation in this convoluted and expensive way compared to any other? Governments have sent young Australians to die in their hundreds and thousands without even asking Parliament, let alone the general public. So why is this issue, which harms nobody, so critical that Parliament cannot decide without a poll of the whole Australian electorate.

    For my part, if this pathetic excuse for a Government actually puts this matter to a public poll I will respond with an informal vote clearly marked as contrary to good government. I hope that many other Australians can be convinced to do the same, whatever their feelings on this or any other issue that might be put before the Australian public.

    The only exception is a question on the most central issue of all – what should be the nature of our polity? Should it be a republic or a constitutional monarchy. This is an exception because it is a precursor to changing our Constitution, not just fiddling with a social issue that has little abiding interest for maybe half, if not more, of the Australian people and will affect the lived experience of very few people indeed.

  20. Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #1363 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 10:24 pm

    My 17yr old Tenterfield Terrier, Chelsea aka Olde Woman Chelsea passed away in her sleep in my bed early this morning. I woke to find she had passed away. I am glad she had the peaceful end, fitting for all her loyalty and affection for 17 years. Vale Chelsea.

    I am so sad for you.

    We do love our dogs/babies and remember them with love and great affection.

    We wish you peace and fond memories.

  22. Puffy:

    Sending hugs. I lost one of mine last year and I still tear up at the thought of her passing.

    GG:

    I note Turnbull has said that he will stay out of the discussions on Monday, presumably because a) a plebiscite is their policy, and b) he’s a weak leader. But still. Governments make ‘solemn promises’ to voters all the time an renege on them. Remember the coalition’s 2014 budget, vastly opposite to what they’d promised the electorate going into the 2013 election?

  23. Especially given a number of conservatives have pledged to disregard a plebiscite result that favours ssm.

    Yep precisely why it’s a waste of time and money. Like I said, it’s a marriage equality opponent’s heads I win, tails you lose.

  24. Where as the promise not to cut heath, education and ABC funding wasn’t a “solemn promise”?

    They were non-core promises.

  25. confessions @ #1373 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 10:35 pm

    Especially given a number of conservatives have pledged to disregard a plebiscite result that favours ssm.

    Yep precisely why it’s a waste of time and money. Like I said, it’s a marriage equality opponent’s heads I win, tails you lose.

    Unfortunately, a waste of time and money suits all participants apart from the public who pay for it!

  28. Steve777
    Where as the promise not to cut heath, education and ABC funding wasn’t a “solemn promise”?

    They were non-core promises.

    When will people understand, they were all promises made to the electorate, while ME plebiscite was a promise made to the Liberal and National Party Members and Senators.

    p.s. Vale Chelsea.

    Always treasure the memories, Puff.

  30. I agree and thank you.

    Thank you, everyone, she was the last dog left that my husband and I had together so that is a bit sad too, but I cannot ask for a better death for her. That I should be so lucky.

    TPOF @ #1368 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 9:57 pm

    Puffy, that’s sad – but a very good age for a dog. And the best way to go. No horrible vet surgery as the last view.

  31. confessions @ #1377 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 10:46 pm

    GG:

    True except the opposition and some of the cross bench oppose a waste of time and money plebiscite too.

    The Government might just re-brand a dodgy poll paid out of general revenue as the Plebiscite a, satisfy the letter of the policy and then move to the next step.

    This row is about not losing face and Mal staying PM.

    SSM is just the plaything to differentiate the protagonists.

  33. [Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
    Barney in Go Dau said:
    [Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
    … The Rapture. If you want to find out how loopy Trump’s religious base are, visit these sites:]
    No, thanks

    ==========
    Understood! But here’s the really disturbing bit: the forum section of the Rapture Ready website has 69, 265 threads and 1,095,346 posts……    ]

    Not really, even if ever poster only ever posted once that would be represent about 0.3% of the US population.

  34. [Greensborough Growler
    Never play with super glue!    ]

    They should try it on Trump, it might stop him trying to grab p…ies.

  40. Barney in Go Dau @ #1351 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 7:58 pm

    Who do these people think they are?

    What right do they have to deliberately harass people they no nothing about?

    Those abused are going through a difficult and emotional decision making process.

    The law imposes no limitation on the protesters movements, just how they behave within certain areas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/03/law-banning-protests-near-abortion-clinics-faces-constitutional-challenge

    Where can go to protest this woman’s outrageous decision to have 13 children? That’s an enormous burden on our healthcare, education and welfare system!!

    This RWFW would no doubt be aghast at someone else involving themselves in her reproductive choices, so why does she feel entitled to involve herself in the reproductive health care choices of others?

  44. Wait is this Trump Turnbull phone call leak for real? Is it being reported locally? Can’t think this will play well:

    Turnbull: “Yes, the agreement, which the Vice President just called the Foreign Minister about less than 24 hours ago and said your Administration would be continuing, does not require you to take 2,000 people. It does not require you to take any. It requires, in return, for us to do a number of things for the United States – this is a big deal, I think we should respect deals.”

  45. Confessions the quote in that transcript is “this is the most unpleasant call all day” seems pretty piqued to me!

    The whole thing is cringeworthy particular given Turnbull spends the whole time selling the deal as a sham and basically a means to save face with the Australian public. Not sure if it’s a low point in our obsequious foreign relations but it is certainly the most intimate exposure of same

  46. You are worse than I am.

    It looked clear to me that Trump was not happy and cut the call short. IIRC reports at the time suggested it became heated. Turnbull’s grovelling makes me cringe.

    Whether the transcript will get reported in MSM here is another matter.

  48. Shiftaling:

    Perhaps my following of the Trump imbroglio has made me immune but that is tame by Trump’s standards. I don’t know how former US presidents referred to foreign leaders in phone calls, but to me the calling of the Mexican and Aus leaders by their first names is arguably more offensive and indicative of the arrogant bully boy Trump is than him referring to a phone convo with Trumble as unpleasant.

  50. Turnbull’s grovelling makes me cringe.

    Me too. Imagine then just what the Aus PM grovelling has been for events passed? The so-called War on Terror phone calls with Bush / Howard must’ve been doozies.

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