BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Essential Research’s recent results have driven an improvement in the Coalition’s poll trend position, most evidently in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a further narrowing in Labor’s lead this week on the back of weaker numbers from Essential Research, which provide the only new data point other than the Galaxy poll from Western Australia, which has no bearing on the national total. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one in Victoria and three in ever-volatile Queensland, but loses one in Western Australia courtesy of Galaxy. Labor’s relative softness in Victoria, where a swing is actually now recorded in favour of the Coalition, was noted by me yesterday in an article for Crikey. This was based on calculations made before the latest numbers were added, which have caused Labor’s two-party total there to weaken still further – no doubt a tad excessively. I’m also not entirely confident about the extent to which the Greens are recorded as having fallen, since the trendline has dipped below any of the individual data points, which sometimes happens when there’s a sudden change. In other words, they’re down, but probably not by quite that much. No new results for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

955 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 20
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  1. confessions @ #675 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 10:13 am

    I got a letter from Telstra telling me the NBN is coming to my area and that I will eventually need to switch phone and internet services to the NBN network. How can they force me to join it if I don’t want to?

    Just turn off your existing service.
    You then have the choice NBN or nothing. Simple.

  8. On the NBN change over.

    Someone told me that is I have a Personal Alarm thingy (on its way), I can retain a landline because its has to be available in an emergency. This landline will be an extra to the NBN (so will cost more, obviously).

    Anyone have any knowledge on this?

  10. fess

    Don’t rely on Telstra to give you all the options. Telstra is in the business of selling Telstra products.

    They once farted us around for six months, asking us to try more and more outrageous things (at one stage, hubby spent a day walking around the property with a couple of hundred of metres of aerial cable because Telstra insisted we MUST be getting a signal somewhere) rather than admit they couldn’t provide us with a certain service. In fact, they never told us an alternate service even existed, because using it would have meant us leaving for another carrier.

  13. GT

    RichardEngel: Across China there is determination to get off coal, fix the air and make money doing it. Seems logical. US has its own logic these days

    There is considerable unrest in the cities due to air pollution.

    The Communist Party rates it as a risk to them.

  14. Lizzie, the NBN can come with a landline, but when there is a power blackout or the NBN is down, the landline won’t work. Hence the need for a separate dedicated landline.

  15. bemused @ #751 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:03 pm

    confessions @ #675 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 10:13 am

    I got a letter from Telstra telling me the NBN is coming to my area and that I will eventually need to switch phone and internet services to the NBN network. How can they force me to join it if I don’t want to?

    Just turn off your existing service.
    You then have the choice NBN or nothing. Simple.

    As a new NBN user FTTN (25/200 purchased limits) plus new NBN phone and modem. I get above 20 mps all the time that I have been connected (9 days)
    Internode has never given me any problems as a provider

  17. lizzie @ #758 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:08 pm

    On the NBN change over.

    Someone told me that is I have a Personal Alarm thingy (on its way), I can retain a landline because its has to be available in an emergency. This landline will be an extra to the NBN (so will cost more, obviously).

    Anyone have any knowledge on this?

    Existing copper will be decommissioned, no ifs buts or maybes.
    I understand there was work going on to make such devices and others work over the NBN. Might have already been completed.

  18. billshortenmp: My unequivocal statement to #garma and to all Australians: Labor supports a voice for our first peoples, enshrined in our Constitution.

  19. PeeBee @ #764 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:21 pm

    Lizzie, the NBN can come with a landline, but when there is a power blackout or the NBN is down, the landline won’t work. Hence the need for a separate dedicated landline.

    And where is that dedicated landline to come from? All the copper will be part of the NBN.
    The NBN provides telephone and data just like ADSL or my existing Optus HFC. There is no separate phone line.

  20. The New York Times
    1 hr ·
    Breaking News: Robert Mueller’s office is said to have requested White House documents on Michael Flynn and to be looking into payments from Turkey.

  21. What NBN says

    Will my existing phone and internet services really stop working if I don’t do anything to switch to the nbn™ network?
    Yes, this is the case for the 93% of Australian premises connected to the nbn™ network via a fixed line technology. You can see where fixed line technologies have been installed in the nbn™ rollout map. We recommend you migrate your services over to the nbn™ network well before they are switched off, which occurs 18 months after the nbn™ network is switched on in your area.

    When ordering an nbn service in Satellite or Fixed Wireless areas, have a discussion with your service provider about your existing landline. Consider keeping the service active if you rely on the landline in emergency situations.

    http://www1.nbnco.com.au/connect-home-or-business/information-for-home/what-happens-in-a-power-blackout/information-about-your-landline.html

  24. confessions @ #708 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 11:14 am

    Itza:

    Oh no I hope I’m not being forced onto satellite! Every person I know who has satellite says what a shit service it is!

    The satellite service varies from acceptable to useless, depending on the time of day. This is largely because the available capacity has been oversold several times over. And it is plagued by both “planned maintenance outages” and mysterious unplanned outages that just seem to occur randomly.

    Unfortunately, it is the only option for large swathes of the country (geographically, not population-wise).

  25. lizzie @ #773 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:36 pm

    PeeBee and bemused

    I suppose I’ll just have to wait and see. 🙁

    Why?
    Identify your device and inquire with NBN and/or the retailer of the device.
    If the device will not work with NBN then it is not fit for purpose and you should get a refund and then purchase an NBN compatible device.
    Seems simple to me.

  26. guytaur

    Thanks for that. NBN is far away at present, so I’ve no ides what sort of service I’ll get (wireless or…)

    Perhaps I’ll be dead by the time they get around to it. 😉

  27. P1:

    If I lived further down the hill I’d have to have satellite as there is no wireless service – not even mobile phones work. Fortunately I’m up high so can get a wireless service.

  29. bemused

    Sigh. I don’t have the jolly thing yet because it’s provided by Govt Home Care. All I know is that it works through the landline.

  31. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 51m51 minutes ago
    I’m sick & tired of hearing dip shits who already have the right to marry & can’t think outside the square say SSM is not an important issue

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 44m44 minutes ago
    These are the same dip shits who 50 years ago would have thought giving Indigenous people voting rights wasn’t important either…

  32. ..and I’ll repeat: my satellite service doesn’t have many outages at all (occasionally during wild weather). I’ve no doubt it could be better (my sons say it’s slower then they get in the big smoke) but we can do most of the stuff we want to without problems.

  35. I took the quiz again out of curiosity to see what I would get if my partner was still alive.

    You are 75% “ordinary”.
    You are as unique as a Melbourne barista.

    There is 1 other question I could answer differently.

  41. bemused

    Then ask them what happens when you eventually get NBN of one sort or another.

    I must remember that for future reference.

  46. confessions @ #781 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:48 pm

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 51m51 minutes ago
    I’m sick & tired of hearing dip shits who already have the right to marry & can’t think outside the square say SSM is not an important issue

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 44m44 minutes ago
    These are the same dip shits who 50 years ago would have thought giving Indigenous people voting rights wasn’t important either…

    PVO might be a rusted on Lib, but I think he at least has the decency to hate himself for it.

  49. zoomster @ #782 Saturday, August 5th, 2017 – 12:49 pm

    ..and I’ll repeat: my satellite service doesn’t have many outages at all (occasionally during wild weather). I’ve no doubt it could be better (my sons say it’s slower then they get in the big smoke) but we can do most of the stuff we want to without problems.

    zoomster

    Can I ask what ISP and plan you are on? Can you stream movies?

    (sorry if I’ve missed a post on this)

  50. guytaur

    “Bernardi is getting confidential Liberal party info ”

    They’re so organised, aren’t they…

    Isn’t there a saying (courtesy my first husband) “Couldn’t organise a root in a brothel”?

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