BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).

bt2019-2016-12-21

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 97
1 … 5 6 7 … 97

  1. What Turnbull accomplished on Xmas day was a staggering performance of hypocrisy that I doubt he will be able to trump in the coming year. In one half hour, from the lofty heights of political position and personal wealth, Turnbull acted out a ghastly and perverted imitation of Christ’s publicly washing the feet of the poor as a lesson in humility to the arrogant.

    Turnbull “humbly” served lunch to the very people he victimises. He then instructed the rest of us to “hug” them.

    At the same time, he refused to acknowledge that his government’s policies have murdered yet another refugee, who came to us seeking sanctuary from murderers in his homeland.

    I think Turnbull’s jumped the shark. Anything that follows can only be pale imitation and dull repetition.

    https://noplaceforsheep.com/2016/12/27/turnbull-jumps-the-shark/

  2. “It says a lot that people would rather move toward PHON than Bill Shortens ALP.”

    The overall polling certainly says something, Rex.

    It says that, less than 6 months after the slimmest possible win by the Coalition, at its first crack at re-election since regaining office, Bill Shorten’s ALP are ahead, have been in virtually every poll since the election (including all the recent ones), are still slowly gaining ground (the best way to do it), would still win an election held now, and there still seems no danger of any of this being otherwise anytime soon.

    Obviously all Bill’s fault, of course.

  4. Back before the insanely unthinkable happened there was a discussion here where a number of posters posited that because Hillary Clinton was an alleged ‘hawk’ her election would bring us dramatically closer to a nuclear war. However, the argument went, because Trump was not consistently a war proposer and anti-Putin, we would have to assume there was less likelihood, although there could be more – we just didn’t know because Trump wasn’t consistent.

    I put the view that the enemy of peace was inconsistency and unpredictability. If we can’t reasonably foresee how a person or country in control of serious weaponry will behave there is a tendency to take the safe course. For many countries the safe course is either to raise the heat or, most terribly, to take preemptive action. Because Trump was so terribly unpredictable – which might be great in doing real estate deals because it unsettles the other parties but terrible when the failure of a ‘deal’ can be truly catastrophic – he posed a far greater risk of a nuclear war.

    Here’s an article that pretty elegantly sets out the risks:

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/could-donald-trump-help-unleash-nuclear-catastrophe-with-a-single-tweet-20161226-gti6z7.html

  5. Seth
    #244

    It says a lot that people would rather move toward PHON than Richard Di Natale’s Greens.

    —————————

    You says it so much better. 😉

  6. just me @ #255 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 6:31 pm

    Seth
    #244
    It says a lot that people would rather move toward PHON than Richard Di Natale’s Greens.
    —————————
    You says it so much better. 😉

    Pauline is a real leader who tells it like it is. If only we could dump Bill Shorten or Richard di Natale and put her in charge!

    Because, according to at least one poster here, people only vote for leaders. They don’t care what the policies are. Nobody ever thinks about policies. What we need is a figurehead who can cut through but deliver exactly the policies that the said poster wants. Then Utopia beckons.

  13. What we need is a figurehead who can cut through but deliver exactly the policies that the said poster wants. Then Utopia beckons.

    —————-

    Wot? Bill won’t be personally hand delivering me a customised socialist miracle?

    :sadface:

  15. Shortens zingers clearly aren’t cutting through given Malcolm is still easily preferred as PM

    ——————-

    IIRC, the serious stat heads have pointed out many times that PPM is not a particularly useful metric for predicting the next election, and 2PP is.

    On that score, Shorten ALP is doing fine.

  17. Boats are virtually defenseless against a large number of modern weapons.

    Gunna call that one as myth. While certainly not invulnerable, they are, if properly equipped (think Anzac frigate with just completed upgrades) certainly survivable against cruise missiles.

    however defense against naval threats really isn’t one of them.

    If you like. I disagree. Aircraft make luverly range extenders for missiles and give far more real time tactical flexibility that say, a sub carrying missiles. different roles and cards to play.

  18. Poroti – I think I’ll leave it where I put it when I got back from now on.

    Bloody hot in a helmet, jacket with Kevlar inserts and gloves (also with kevar).

    Re-hydration was required.

  19. Imacca

    Aircraft make luverly range extenders for missiles

    It’s not only the range extension as Falklands experience showed. It’s also how fast the missile moves. Launching a 600 kg rocket propelled missile from an A/C that’s doing close to mach2 means that it makes not a lot of difference if the missile fails to explode, just fizzles or actually goes off. As long as the strike hits properly the kinetic force of the hit will render most boats as not operationally useful.

  20. lizzie @ #251 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 6:23 pm

    What Turnbull accomplished on Xmas day was a staggering performance of hypocrisy that I doubt he will be able to trump in the coming year. In one half hour, from the lofty heights of political position and personal wealth, Turnbull acted out a ghastly and perverted imitation of Christ’s publicly washing the feet of the poor as a lesson in humility to the arrogant.
    Turnbull “humbly” served lunch to the very people he victimises. He then instructed the rest of us to “hug” them.
    At the same time, he refused to acknowledge that his government’s policies have murdered yet another refugee, who came to us seeking sanctuary from murderers in his homeland.
    I think Turnbull’s jumped the shark. Anything that follows can only be pale imitation and dull repetition.

    https://noplaceforsheep.com/2016/12/27/turnbull-jumps-the-shark/

    I made a similar comment Xmas day and linked this cartoon describing the situation by Eaten Fish.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/25/happy-bloody-christmas-the-true-story-of-faysal-by-eaten-fish

  21. Malcolm on Xmas Day … In his ‘message’ he managed to say ‘Lucy and Me’.

    I replayed it and a little concentration frown appeared just before indicating he was focused on not saying ‘Lucy and I’.

    😀

  22. Launching a 600 kg rocket propelled missile from an A/C that’s doing close to mach2

    sorry, being a pedant here. ASM’s don’t generally get launched at anything supersonic. safe separation issues. 🙁 Yeah F106 Delta Dart but….

    In fact about the only things that can even carry an ASM supersonic would be F35, B1B, Backfire (but maybe not, its big missiles are semi conformal), or Blackjack.

    But, you are right about kinetic energy issues. Think the sophisticated but unpowered “glide bombs” like JSOW we have in stock. And its a big factor in the “no escape zone” of an AAM which is entirely based on relevant kinetic energy. It’s actually a bit silly talking “range” on an AAM as its so contextual around relative velocities of hunter and prey.

    But it brings up a\the issue that what a lot of people dont get in the F35 debate is the value of internal carriage of weapons and fuel.

    Other aircraft have great specs for speed and range exceeding F35….when clean.

    Start hanging pylons, tanks bombs and missiles off them so they can actually fight and the drag goes up to the point they oft cant do supersonic at all until they dump things. An Su-35 carrying 10AAM’s?? Very much flying a different envelope than at an airshow and so “unstealth” an F35 gets first look first shot.

    And if somehow the Su gets a look at our F35, and tries to prosecute with its crappy old rusky AAM’s or Chinese AAM’s with serious reliability issues….it gets shot in the back by the other F35 running silent over there that it never even saw.

    Modern combat is real complex. A lot of the media are just not up to reporting it properly.

  24. Bug1,
    You wanted a dispassionate look at the evidence that Russia hacked the DNC and passed the data onto Assange at Wikileaks? Well it seems it was Russia, once-removed to keep Putin’s hands clean. This article tells you all you need to know, specifically. Also, the evidence pointing to their possession of RNC and Trump-specific material, which they are yet to release to Wikileaks for use:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/10/how-russian-hackers-can-blackmail-donald-trump-and-the-gop.html

  25. Saying, “Lucy and me” is of a piece with the Fake Public Transport travel by the Eminence Grease. Turnbull probably has the official Beamer tracking the train on the road beside the train tracks, or keeping a respectful distance behind any bus.

    It doesn’t fool anyone.

  28. Its a while since I have read much about Assange. But from memory one of the charges was that he penetrated a partner while she was asleep. The defence agreed that she was not fully awake but because she didn’t immediately object consent could be assumed. If I have got this wrong please let me know.
    But if it is true it is obviously a charge that Assange should have been willing to defend under the normal processes of the laws of the country where the alleged offence occurred

  33. Are we allowed to tell Rex to shut up?

    Incessant, repetitive bitching, negativity and whining. A waste of time even scrolling past his posts.

    Is he Christopher Pyne?

  34. Confessions
    It is a ‘class’ thang. Truffles the ‘U’ trying to sound ‘ Non-U’. See public transport selfies. But as he told the bolshie members of the caucus “Après moi le déluge” 🙂

  35. Imacca

    No need to apoligise about being a ‘pedant’. It’s all a long while ago and I forgotten about the dive to sea level part of the Super Etendard approach.

    But the launch platform part mattered. Air strike decisive. Surface launch as against HMS Glamorgan not so much. Glamorgan still a working thing except that the hole in her took on too much water going forward. But she reversed successfully all the way back to the UK for repair and was back doing Falkland Is patrol in December 1982.

  40. Dear Desperate
    Do you see the Grand Children? Ask your FD to put politics and religion off limits.Never take the bate; educate the grandkids.
    Signed Dorothy,

  42. ctar1 @ #269 #269 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 7:29 pm

    Imacca

    Aircraft make luverly range extenders for missiles

    It’s not only the range extension as Falklands experience showed. It’s also how fast the missile moves. Launching a 600 kg rocket propelled missile from an A/C that’s doing close to mach2 means that it makes not a lot of difference if the missile fails to explode, just fizzles or actually goes off. As long as the strike hits properly the kinetic force of the hit will render most boats as not operationally useful.

    Nelson found cannon balls similarly effective, and for the same reason. Isaac Newton’s principles were well known, even if empirical evidence wasn’t available.

    Nelson would have been very happy to have 600 kg cannonballs at his disposal.

  43. C@Tmomma;
    I would believe that there are Republicans that could be influenced by threats to release material, but look at what we already know about Trump, particularly with the way he has treated women, i dont think his reputation could be any more damaged in the eyes of people who care about that sort of thing.
    Also, i know a bit than most about computers, and its pretty much impossible to be 100% sure who was in control a computer that conducted an attack, it can be tracked down to a computer, perhaps to a computer that was controlling that computer, and maybe even the owners and physical location of the computer, but that doesnt prove who was at the keyboard, or even if there was someone at the keyboard. (stuff hidden in malware etc)
    Also last i read the FBI and CIA disagree about who was behind it.

  46. I’d say that Peter Dutton is a vile excrescence on the Australian body politic except that he fits quite comfortably in today’s “Liberal” party.

  47. @Don 6:28 pm
    Interesting look at the use of drugs by Hitler and the German armies during WWII.

    Not only the armies Don. My understanding is that drug use was somewhere between not uncommon to widespread in the population, including ‘prescribed’ morphine. If you’re interested Hans Fallada, himself an addict in and out of hospitals and psychiatric centres, is a good place to start, especially “Nightmare in Berlin”. Even more powerful is “Alone in Berlin”, though not for the faint hearted, mindful that excludes no PBers.

  48. I’d say that Peter Dutton is a vile excrescence on the Australian body politic

    I figure him to be a woefully incompetent minister (think keystone cops) who keeps his place with the Liberal party faithful by engaging in thuggish behaviour and rhetoric – IOW a cowardly bully.

  49. Victoria
    Re Assange; I don’t think the accused and accuser have disagreed on what happened; even in Sweden you don’t get long Jail terms for not using a condom;when use has been agreed.

Comments Page 6 of 97
1 … 5 6 7 … 97

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *