BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Player

    I have no idea how you got THAT interpretation from what i wrote. My assumption was that we got a republic but is morphed quickly into a totalitarian regime that we had NOT voted for. If there was then a revolution to depose President Cory, I would not have a problem with former friends eg UK, NZ or even the USA coming to help the rebels.

    Similarly if President Trump or his grandson the hereditary president of the USA causes such unrest that there is rebellion in New England I would not have a problem with Canada supplying the rebels with armaments etc.

    Mind you I will add this qualification. rebellions of any kind should only be supported when there is a bloody good chance of winning, because failed revolutions cause untold misery.

  2. When it comes to news reports, I trust the BBC and ABC substantially more than RT, for the simple reason that the BBC and ABC are public broadcasters – not state broadcasters, much as Tony Abbott might be unhappy with that – and can and do report negatively about their respective governments.

    RT simply doesn’t (and can’t!) do that. For stories where Russia doesn’t have any pressing interest in the outcome I’m sure they’re just as trustworthy as anyone else.

    But anything the Russian government is directly invested in, no I don’t trust RT’s reporting in the slightest. I might look sideways at BBC reports on the UK government/interests, or the ABC on the Australian government/interests, but I remain confident that they will report the important stuff and make reasonable attempts to be impartial.

    Equating RT to the ABC or BBC is more false equivalence, which seems a staple of those who seem eager to justify or excuse whatever Putin does.

    As for “sponsoring a coup”. Sheesh. Of course the USA, like everyone else, wheels and deals with promising various goodies to all and sundry for the purposes of maintaining/increasing their global influence. So does China, so does Russia, etc. None of that is “sponsoring a coup”. Of course the USA wanted a more Western friendly trade/security relationship and Russia wanted something else, and I’ve said on here before that clearly the US and Europe badly misjudged/mishandled the situation with Ukraine.

    I’ve already explained that I don’t think I have a blind spot with regards US foreign policy and practice – they have, unquestionably, done terrible misguided things all around the world, all for the worst reasons.

    However, Americans or Europeans were not the ones who got out on the streets of Kiev, and weren’t the ones who brought the government down. The Americans and Europeans weren’t the ones with military on the ground – the Russians were the ones putting boots on the ground and supplying arms and fomenting civil war (resulting, incidentally, in shooting down a civilian airplane).

    Promising aid and favourable trade deals is not “sponsoring a coup”.

    So much false equivalence bullshit.

  3. Having been through the expenses reported in the ABC story, the vsriation is remarkable. Some backbenchers spend more than ministers, while Nova Peris spent less shuttling between Darwin and Canbera than Barnaby cost to get back to New England. In this light, and in the context of a system with clearly inadequate oversight, kudos to former Labor Senator Jenny McAllister. As far as I can tell,she had the lowest expense total of any MP or Senator who served the full period.
    It has been said many times before, but we badly need a Federal Icac.

  4. Imacca
    The involvement of a Liberal donor was outed on Satirday. Tonight we found out Ley had 16 more trips to the Gold Coast worth another $50k!

    Funny behaviour, for a minister with an electorate in SW country NSW. Night all.

    How Adlai Stevenson Stopped Russian Interference in the 1960 Election
    The Soviets offered the former presidential candidate propaganda support if he ran in 1960, an offer he politely declined
    By Jason Daley January 4, 2017
    Jan. 4 2017 12:51 PM
    Election Meddling Is Surprisingly Common
    By Joshua Keating
    Partisan electoral interventions by the great powers: Introducing the PEIG Dataset
    (There was interference by the USA or USSR/Russia in 117 elections around the world between 1946 & 2000)
    Russia’s strategy for influence through public diplomacy and active measures: the Swedish case

  6. Citizen
    #4771 Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 8:49 pm
    For some reason I have a sideline advertisement on PB for spinning tops made of 24 carat gold, copper and titanium. These seem to be rich mens’ toys and I’m certainly not in that category. Perhaps I mentioned political ‘spin’ some time in the past.

    What with all the talk of buying $800k apartments on the spur of the moment, they think that Pollbludger is populated by millionaires…


  7. Jackol
    My reply is simply naivety on your part.
    The ONLY reason that public broadcasters like the BBC and ABC used to have a reputation for independence was that that is what was expected of them by the government. However to think that they did not act within very tight constraints is naive. D notices were (and probably still are) used quite a bit. I am not saying that they were government propaganda but they also were not fully independent. These days it is even less the case with both BBC and ABC increasingly acting like simple government mouthpieces. If you had been comparing the BBC and Pravda circa 1970, I would have agreed with you, but not so much these days.

    More to the point what source would YOU use in order to get a Russian perspective on any issue, or a Chinese one etc. We no longer have any journalists capable of interpreting events in anyway other than via simplistic MSN Murdoch view points.

  8. Leroy

    Interesting stuff. I think Russia lost much influence and capacity to influence elections with the Hungarian incident and the waning influence of local Communist Parties. With virtually no Russians living in western countries like Australia, it must have been quite hard to do a lot of influencing.

  9. SBS has been very interesting tonight with a program ‘Confronting ISIS’ to be followed by ‘Putin’s Way’.

    Dateline’s Brett Mason presents this special documentary which investigates the accusations of criminality and corruption that have surrounded Vladimir Putin’s reign in Russia. Tracing his career back over two decades, the program reveals how the accumulation of wealth and power has led to autocratic rule and the spectre of a new C…

  10. I’m starting to think Putin has overplayed his hand. In order to shoehorn in Trump, who it seems was willing to take any help he could get in order to win the election over the odds-on favourite, Hillary Clinton, Putin had to pit the Russian Intelligence community against the American Intelligence community and President Obama, who is silent but deadly in his aim .

    So, in the game of global chess, Obama sacrificed his Queen, Hillary, for the sake of exposing Putin’s modus operandi, and especially wrt Europe as Putin had planned campaigns in the light of the upcoming elections in The Netherlands, France, Germany and Italy, all countries where Putin is supporting the Far Right political parties and candidates with his influence-peddling and propaganda.

    Suffice to say, that of course President Obama would have liked Hillary to win so that she could confront Putin head-on. However, if he could forestall the full court press by Putin in Europe that would be an achievement he could be proud of.

    And 4 years of The Don and his cronies, Italian-American and Russian mafia as well as the regular kleptocrats he is peopling his Cabinet with, might also serve to see off the Republican Party for a generation as well.

    I hope so and I hope President Obama spends the next 4 years training the next wave of Democrat leaders to take back their country, as he said he was going to.

  11. Dtt

    Everything you say comes from the perspective of the propaganda of Russia Today. The fact that you have faith in a authoratarian dictator whose wealth and power is dependant on retaining it in the gilded cage of the Kremlin is frankly offensive

  12. There were a few weeks when I had nothing but those ads for the little tops. I have to say it started to give me a vague, uneasy feeling of “Inception” paranoia

  13. DTT@4810

    Interesting stuff. I think Russia lost much influence and capacity to influence elections with the Hungarian incident….

    I just want to check, but by the “Hungarian Incident”, you do mean what I call the “Hungarian Uprising, or Revolution ?
    I work in Hungary some times, and I do think referring to it as the “Hungarian Incident” is very dismissive of the people in Budapest who genuinely fought (and died) to shake off the Soviet totalitarian yoke.

    and the waning influence of local Communist Parties. With virtually no Russians living in western countries like Australia, it must have been quite hard to do a lot of influencing.

    Yep, you are correct – the various Communist / anarchist movements had little influence in Australia, but it was definitely not zero. These movements were very influential in splitting “the Left” – no Russians required. Particularly at Sydney University. People like Lee Rhianon were willing substitutes for Russians, and there was plenty of money from Russia (and China) to subsidise the leftist bookshops. I still have some excellent Russian theoretical physics tracts from that era.
    You could tell immediately whether you were in a Soviet or a Maoist bookshop by the physics provided .

    It all seemed funny at the time, but I now look at it as a really big waste / digression of the progressive movement. It brought us Fraser and Howard.

    Hopefullly, one day, “The Left” will wake up and understand that you need to work within the parameters of democracy to effect real change, and this means small steps and compromise.

    The “revolution will not only NOT BE TELEVISED ( – sorry for the advertisement that appears before this will even play, but it is worth watching), but the revolution is actually NOT GOING TO OCCUR!!!

    So, maybe we need to get back to trying to push for small steps towards a liberal social democracy?

  14. I love this quote from Greg Hunt on Ley.

    The Liberal frontbencher Greg Hunt defended his colleague on Friday. “I do know that Sussan is generally one of the most extraordinarily scrupulous ministers with her personal behaviour,” Hunt told 2GB Radio.

    Which then begs the question:

    If she’s one of the clean skins, what is Hunt not telling us about his colleagues?

  15. As predicted, #Centrelinkfail has fallen off the few MSM sites which carried it at all. In a month, it’ll be a “storm in a teacup”, in two it’ll be forgotten….by all but those affected by it.

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