BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

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  1. Kay Jay

    G’Day and Good Evening. I am just catching up on today’s pages and acknowledge the seriousness of the question you asked a while ago.

    I too am puzzled by the pertinent “unfoldings” and at times I think that somehow I have skipped a page, or that some posts have been removed between an original and a reply to it, so unexpectedly high is the level of attack in reply.

    Having read your contributions for quite a few months now I have no doubt that your skills of perception are as (highly) good as your wordsmithery. I am sure you can very accurately adjudicate the said conversational interactions centred on DTT and form a pretty spot-on working hypothesis for which you could go back through the last 200 or more pages and gather a large amount of confirmatory evidence, if you had the time and energy and inclination.

    As you know, “de ansa allas lays in de soil”. If you have a brief musing session over the replies to your question, any speculation that underlying the words there are obvious axes being ground is likely to be in the right direction, IMHO.

    And for the record, in reference to one of the replies you received, any claim that a reply “you are detritus” to an accusation “what you say is nonsense”, is to reply “in kind” really does speak for itself.

    I look forward to your tomorrow’s musings.

  2. psyclaw
    #3552 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 10:53 pm
    I thank you most sincerely. I would like to know a little more about you. Nothing blackmail worthy. Just general stuff.
    I think you are very kind and even handed and I am touched more than you may be able to know.
    I don’t know what others make of the flummery I indulge myself with (with which to whoever is concerned). I had hoped that being vaguely entertaining would suffice. As you would be aware, it’s easy to miss with humour).

    I will ponder your post and some of todays to and fro. My musings are usually just thinking of what others write and what the honourable BK presents in the morning.
    I don’t see my mission in life as arguing with people who could, easily be my very best friend. In fact, I don’t claim to have any friends.
    Goodnight to you, dear sir or madam. My memory is tihs. I am practicing for when the practice nurse cleverly asks me to spell “world” backwards or to count back from 100 by sevens. You know the program. ♥ ♥

  3. I don’t know why the Companies Act can’t be amended to impose additional obligations on directors, backed by criminal sanctions, to ensure it doesn’t happen.

    Because an obligation to pay the proper amount of tax would conflict with their fiduciary obligation to generate as much value as possible for shareholders. Certainly the law can’t be shouldering people with conflicting responsibilities.

  4. psyclaw,
    So you are indifferent to others being repeatedly called ‘intellectual pygmies’?
    …Among many other things.

    You seem to consider one word, chosen because it had the letters, d, t & t in it more than any other reason, is enough to weigh down the balance against one side more than the other. Why is that? And why is it that you aren’t even-handed in your criticism? It’s something I’ve noted as well over many, many pages.

    My crime was simply analysing one of dtt’s oft-stated claims and exposing it for the rubbish it was. That then unleashed a torrent of belittling abuse. So you were okay with that?

    My crime was simply responding to the taunts directed my way. Guilty as charged there, your honour, I have to admit. I should have just meekly swallowed it? Allowed my bona fides to be questioned and mocked by a bully? Is that what you’re saying?

  5. a r @ #3559 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 11:19 pm

    I don’t know why the Companies Act can’t be amended to impose additional obligations on directors, backed by criminal sanctions, to ensure it doesn’t happen.

    Because an obligation to pay the proper amount of tax would conflict with their fiduciary obligation to generate as much value as possible for shareholders. Certainly the law can’t be shouldering people with conflicting responsibilities.

    Ever heard of prioritising obligations?
    If you struggle with this you must be a lawyer.

  6. News from KayJay
    Peace indeed.
    To whom it may concern.
    We, the dog and I, wish you peace, harmony and the love of family and friends.
    Signed
    the usually irreverent KayJay ❄ ❄

  7. greensborough growler @ #3565 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 11:51 pm

    KJ,
    You know, “They” will get you in the end.

    Oh! Dog. Where can I hide? Do “they” have tracker dogs?
    So, even if I lay down my defensive weapons and surrender, the pursuit will continue?
    Ah, I see my mistake.
    1. I got out of bed this morning early. Now yesterday.
    2.I should have done lots of mowing, branch trimming and the dreaded gardening and fallen back into bed exhausted.
    3. I should have appreciated that a recent upgrade to my computers stuffed them up. I could then have devoted my not very valuable time to swearing profoundly at the computers instead of typing on the keyboard.
    4. Which end are “they” going to get. You are not, please assure me, speaking of a roving band of RW ratbags intend to converting my rear “end” into grist for the LNP mill.
    Please tell me what I am writing about. ☮☮

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