No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.
BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016
A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.
3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”
Seems one reason the rise of the One Nation is due to large swing of the Greens.
That’s what you get for sleeping with the enemy.
Jeebuz, how is it that the Libs are actually GAINING votes in WA? I thought Barnett was on the nose around here!
Also, from previous thread (apologies to Bill for not noticing “New Thread!” post):
As predicted, #Centrelinkfail has fallen off the few MSM sites which carried it at all. In a month, it’ll be a “storm in a teacup”, in two it’ll be forgotten….by all but those affected by it.
Yes it looks interesting. Recorded it.
Thanks for your efforts last night Jackol. The idea that the BBC and ABC are no different to RT is another in a long line of outrageous DTT jokes.
Happens at the ABC and BBC all the time (sarcasm).
Good morning Bludgers!
We need new polls!
(Anything to distract us from dtt’s ravings!) 😯
Director Of Government Ethics Office Is Alarmed Trump Cabinet Picks Haven’t Been Fully Vetted
Trump and the Republican Party are taking America to a very dangerous place.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Donald Trump “will do everything in his power” to halt the refugee deal between Australia and the US, according to a hardline Texan congressman who is confident no resettlements will ever take place from Manus Island or Nauru.
Jess Irvine on the decision to rent or buy housing.
Another “college” collapse hurting many individuals and taxpayers. And the owner was a significant political donor. No prize for guessing the recipients.
Looks like the Greens have a mirror image of the Monkey Pod in its ranks. Rhiannon is a nut case.
A great article from Peter FitzSimons on the good advice he has received during his life,
More charges laid against Rolf (remember him?) Harris.
Senior Republicans are anxious about Trump and Russia.
Yes Mr Mehajer, we all believe you.
Matthew Knott on the now-embattled Sussan Ley’s mea culpa (for what it’s worth!).
The New Daily refers to unanswered questions about 14 other taxpayer-funded trips identified by the ABC, including two New Year’s Eve celebrations on the tourist strip.
Section 2 . . .
The Australian’s David Crowe writes that there is zero tolerance for a politician’s excessive travel claims at a time when the community is being asked to tighten its belt. Google.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has called on the Turnbull government to immediately suspend Centrelink’s controversial automated debt recovery program, describing it as a “toxic mix of incompetence and cruelty” that has ruined Christmas for vulnerable Australians.
Andrew Street joins the fray on the Centrelink issue. The last paragraph of this article on the Centrelink debacle nicely sums up this government.
Quentin Dempster tells that that we are just seeing the start of the aggressive, presumptive and system-wide invoicing strategy from Centrelink. Does this government have a death wish?
Urban Wronski on the deep trouble the government is in on several fronts.
Letters to the SMH indicate the feeling of the electorate over the Ley/Centrelink issues.
Five political figures from around the world to watch in 2017.
Our child care system is in need of a rapid and effective overhaul.
Anxiety that a Tweet-trigger happy US President-elect Donald Trump could spark a trade war at any moment will keep the Australian dollar below 75¢ versus the US dollar, say Westpac currency strategists. Google.
Britain risks a “catastrophic” Brexit because the government is so dismissive of the concerns of trade experts, according to one of the figures behind the EU-Canada trade deal which took a decade to negotiate.
South Australia is building a business network ten time faster that the NBN says it is. Google.
Look at this! Facial recognition camouflage clothing.
Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Pope’s cartoon nicely exposes the hypocrisy of this government.
David Rowe rarely disappoints.
Simon Letch and that bromance.
Bill Leak continues to double down on Turnbull.
The apartment that Ley purchased looks to be in a building containing serviced apartments.
I wonder if she had a few ‘try-outs’ before purchasing?
Sussan Ley has agreed to repay the full $50k in expenses she claimed for the 18 trips to the Gold Coast the ABC has questioned her about!
No just kidding 🙂 She has no intention of giving our (taxpayers) money back as long as she can name anyone she bumped into for five minutes on each trip who happened to be a doctor or a patient in our health system.
When did Ley’s partner purchase his Gold Coast business? Did he accompany her on ‘official’ trips and take time for a little business of his own?
Further thoughts on Minister Ley and her many “work” trips to the agold Coast for this MP with a seat over 1000km away:
1. What is the major health crisis on the Gold Coast that keeps taking the Minister to the same place on “work”? Is it serious? Is it under control?
2. The Gold Coast Light Rail runs right through the Gold Coast apartment strip and has reportedly been successful in stimulating the local economy. It opened in 2014 and got federal funds for an extension from Turnbull in 2015. Did Ley declare the unit or any personal financial interests to cabinet when funding for the extension was discussed? She had failed to declare it in her register, which was an oversight. But the funding decision would be a potential conflict of interest if not declared.
Good question. Under the Westminster system of ministerial accountability Ley should tell us. But she won’t.
Thanks for the roundup.
I particularly like the “A great article from Peter FitzSimons on the good advice he has received during his life,:.
You are quite right. A good read.
I have applied the advice about bad press to my TV watching. Don’t read and don’t watch. Do something to to suit myself instead. Be it, read a book, do some pondering the mysteries of life, wonder how our fellows go from A to B – public servant to despised abuser of public purse, pat the dog, work out what’s next in the garden plan.
Learn to be modest and restrained. Be kind to your enemies, if you think you have no enemies you probably have not been paying attention. Be kinder in daily life. Wonder at the marvel of little children.
Good day for gardening in Newcaste. No excuses.
Make your own list. 😎 :really clever wise emoji:
I like “robotic cabinet”.
Stephen @TheAviator1992 9m9 minutes ago
“The Herald Sun could not find evidence of ‘official business’ on 9 of Sussan Ley’s 20 trips to the Gold Coast.” #auspol #leybuy #leybye
Too much hanky panky! 😉
Ley has two wedding rings; or one wide enough to be two; is there a “partner” and a husband, or are husband and wife words lost to the English language?
What happened to poll bludgers second comment box?
Jackol et al
is this story in the BBC or ABC – maybe it is but since you are so sure they are unbiased I suggest you check:
I am not even sure where they have been published but you probably will not see them on the ABC. Not sure about the BBC
WTH does ‘Official Business with Family Member’ mean anyway!?!
If you look at the jpg I posted Ley has that down as her reason for going to the Gold Coast.
Too much hanky panky! 😉
Trump continues to dismiss Russian hacking proof because doing otherwise would ‘undermine his credibility,’ GOP pol says
“I think he’s worried that inquiring into what Russia did in the election is going to undermine his credibility and his legitimacy,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” when asked to theorize on why Trump has been so reluctant to embrace overwhelming intelligence showing Putin ordered the hacks with the intent of harming Hillary Clinton and helping Trump.
There is 24-odd percent missing in SA. How much of that is NXT?
c@tmomma @ #21 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 7:31 am
I like the remark.
Often said that too much chocolate is barely enough and perhaps hanky panky is in the same category.
Cruel people sometimes say things such as “front bencher so and so couldn’t organises a root in a brothel”.
This is apparently quite true because recent revelations show that minister (not the bishop of Riverina – one of the good guys it seems) so and so requires the public to organise and pay for the legendary “root in a …..”. The unfairness of it all. A legendary back bencher – Craig – was badly treated when he managed to make all the arrangements himself – and locally as well.
Ah! Envy. Oh to be young and carefree, with an adoring public to support us as we sail merrily on our way into a sunlit world.
Is it time to get the mower out yet? Perhaps not – the regimental dog is still resting comfortably. ♡
Christian (ironic) Porter says it’s all working perfectly, yet even after providing proof this man is pursued by debt collectors.
Thanks as always for the dawn patrol BK. You do a sterling job, often under great difficulties. We all appreciate it. Thank you.
I loved Peter Fitzsimon’s piece, well written with lots to think about.
And as for Bill Leak’s cartoon – when Bill Leak is told by his masters to kick MT up the arse, MT is in big trouble.
frednk @ #19 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 7:27 am
Yes, I have wondered about use of language in relation to shared lives. We may be old fashioned. When I think of “partner” I tend to find myself wondering about the mixed doubles at the Australian open. Never mind, we generally are able to work out who is up who and who pays the rent – in the context of the current Ms. Ley – lucky us are paying are we not generous?
What do you mean about the second comment box. My brain does not work to well. Was there a second comment box at the top which has been snaffled by the gremlins?
Porter says it’s all working perfectly, yet even after providing proof this man is pursued by debt collectors.
Question for the lawyers out there, you know who you are:
It seems from the article Lizzie linked to that once the debt collectors are called in, there is no more that can be done so far as establishing that you never had a debt in the first place.
Is this why people pay up, or at least establish a timetable for paying up, even though they know they are in the clear? So that should Centrelink finally admit the error, the money will be (eventually) repaid to the ‘client’?
If they are husband and wife, why not talk about Husband and wife. I’m a little bit old fashion also; in my world a partner is not a husband. In other words a wedding ring and partner suggests to me Ley has a complex life.
Perhaps my view of language is a bit old fashion; perhaps husband and wife are words no longer used; the second part of my questions is an attempt to update my language use.
Birmingham describes the ‘discussion’ on Ley as ‘unfortunate’.
One of the common meanings of the word is ‘unlucky’.
“Poor Sussan, she got caught”.
He’s a turkey.
Bloody hell! No wonder Tone looked out of place when in “budget conference”, and no wonder his ministers could pull the wool…
So the RWNJ want Abbott as health minister. I think you have to say Turnbull is stuffed. Pick a date.
Just spoke to Bill Shorten, he was on his morning run. My, hasn’t he lost a lot of weight and looking fit.
The ON polling may well be like the Greens’ traditional midterm surge; a ‘curse on both your houses’ reaction which doesn’t last until polling day.
When the Centrelink story was gaining traction I sent off an email to Simon Birmingham asking for a coherent answer to some very specific questions.
I got a reply – he’s sent it off to Porter!
When I think about it, I need to update my language around marriage.
If you are going to allow same sex marriage (inevitable) than you have to start talking about partners as the allocation of husband and wife becomes a bit of a problem.
This raises new questions; you could once be a partner without getting married; so why the desire for marriage if your title does not change; and will the meaning of partner change; that is a partner is someone you have married; or will partner include common law relationships ( 6 months I was told by my son)?
Given the Centrelink debt recovery drive is all about clawing money back from ‘welfare bludgers’, it’s bitterly ironic that the blunt instrument of averaging out any income a recipient does earn over a whole year only catches people who did what the government wants and managed to get some paid employment. If they just stayed on benefits the entire year, there would be no harrowing robodebt letter. Unintended consequence: keep things simple, better just to stay on the dole…
Sussan Ley holding press conference at 10am #auspol
Perfectly placed and talented to be a front bencher in Jim Hacker’s government.
We are living in interesting times. Really funny if you aren’t worried about rain because you are sleeping out – or scratching around trying to get tucker for the kids – or making an effort to stave off government heavies.
Where’s Neddy Smith (the benevelent model) when we need him. Where are the “rent a kill” for hire to chat with debt collectors? Chris Flannery and Roger were out of their time and could have had awonderful career being sort of good guys protecting we peasants from the A***old govverment revernooers.
Are the betting shops giving odds on the next Government SNAFU, is there an excitement meter adjusted hourly as one mini disaster fades from public consciousness?
What is government for? Entertainment for the not so well off!
A collective Gold Logie in sight for our duly elected and conscientiously serving forces of benevolence who stop only for refreshers as in English barrister infusions of loot.
A Logie (meaningless piece of kitsch) would be appropriate for Mal. Would he be able to fit one in the pocket of his imitation police leather jacket?
In real life the Government are extremely fortunate that the public are so benevolent. Other countries have different ways of voicing displeasure rather than the ballot box.
☠ to the LNP and associated bad guys.
Thanks BK for today’s offerings.
Bill Shorten has lost heaps of weight.
frednk @ #36 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 8:34 am
Christ mate! Give us a break. Will I have to change my requirement when lodging my matrimonial agency information relating to a new (around 85 years) girl friend/partner?
I suppose I could mention partnership.
She (do I have to offer equal opportunities). I remember Trevor Howard in one of his more flamboyant roles talking about homosexuality.
First they had to be whipped.
Then we had to like them.
Next it will be compulsory.
Something like that. (No Muriel, I am not agin Gays.)
The problem of shared finances is more fraught. I don’t got none and a Groucho Marx type respondent is certain to have even less.
Would suspicious glances come our way when we (new GF and I) try booking into a hot bed hotel at a city near you – while we newly partnered up young things pretend to old fashioned decency and apple pie morals? WTF are morals?
Would expectations become overwhelming so that we (loving imaginary pair) feel the need to display constant animosity bordering on rage when together. What would become the norm in respect of outside partners.
Help please I have become lost, entangled in a coil of monofilament 50 lb line and must now off to restorative gardening..
Please ask you son to help out here.
I’m intrigued by Ley’s comments that she ‘holds herself to a higher standard’ when it comes to claiming expenses.
If she did, then there should be no problem; she should be able to lay out the reasons why she had to visit the Gold Coast so often and provide details of the people/organisations she met with.
(Just for contrast, as a candidate, I advertise who I’m going to be meeting with often weeks in advance, usually do a media alert immediately before these meetings and a follow up media release afterwards. Demonstrating that you’re talking to people on the ground is excellent PR).
Of course, I expect that the media will take Ley’s comment at face value, and we can expect to see media stories with phrases such as: “Ley, who holds herself to higher standards than those required…”
bk @ #35 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 8:33 am
Oh! Christ BK. Another day of riotous fun.
Great music for you.
The Music Goes Round and Around.
Sussan Lee has announced a press conference at 10:oo am
Thanks. First chuckle of the day.
Caleb Dawson, 32, said he received a letter in November questioning $1500 of sick-leave payments to him in 2011. Apprently this is incorrect and is now in the hands of debt collectors.
Is there something that Caleb could tell the debt collectors. Something like: ‘This has nothing to do with me mate, Centrelink has confirmed I was entitl d to the payments so no debt exists. You bought a bogus debt, so take it up with the people you bought the debt from.”
Radio NatiOnals Hamish McDonald is worth listening to today.
Apparently doing an interview about Centrelink
Hasn’t dropped off his radar
Newstart is only $250 per week. Very difficult to live on that sort of income for a long period of time
Morning all. Thanks BK for today’s reading. Ley has reportedly taken 27 trips to the Gold Coast over the last few years. What on earth is going on over there that demands so much of the health minister’s time?