BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

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  1. Fronting media for the first time since her travel entitlement scandal surfaced, Health Minister Sussan Ley read a pre-prepared apology in front of media today, stopping midway to secure a beautifully appointed 3-bedroom property in inner Canberra.

    An emotional Mrs Ley told journalists it was an ‘error of judgment’ to make the claim.

    “I have spoken to the Prime Minister and he agrees that this claim does not meet the high standards … sorry, one moment … $680,000? $660,000 is my final offer. $670,000? We have a deal. Sold … and so I have agreed to pay the funds for that travel back”.

    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2017/01/08/sussan-ley-pauses-briefly-during-apology-to-buy-must-have-canberra-apartment/

    Love the Shovel!

  3. One upside is that, should Ley’s position become untenable, there are two former health ministers in the wings.

    One, Peter Dutton, is overdue for transfer from the immigration portfolio.

    Better to have a fresh pair of eyes oversee the deal to resettle those on Manus Island and Nauru in the United States.

    The other, Tony Abbott, is chafing at the bit to come off the bench.

    Eeek!

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-sussan-leys-statement-will-not-end-her-problems–or-malcolm-turnbulls-20170108-gtnxaa.html

  4. News 24 doing a story on London Air pollution killing people.

    Apparently you can now buy personal pollution monitors and of course it has an app. Cleanspace.

  7. Zoomster

    I’m intrigued by Ley’s comments that she ‘holds herself to a higher standard’ when it comes to claiming expenses.

    You must remember it is from a Coalition member. “Higher standard” means something different there. The “higher standard” refers to the level of claims she makes. The higher the standard the higher the claimed amount involved.

  8. Lizzie

    The right wing wish list. Both failed health ministers.

    It would be very destructive for the Liberal party to pick either one.

    I know Turnbull is politically inept. However if makes such an appointment he might as well resign today. And I think he will know that

  9. CentrelinkGate won’t “drop off the radar” ..it has an internal energy source that will keep it going..

    The Ley scandal is actually magnifying it as the comparison with what she has done is stark..

  10. What on earth is going on over there that demands so much of the health minister’s time?

    It takes a lot of planning to make an unplanned property purchase.

  11. You must remember it is from a Coalition member. “Higher standard” means something different there. The “higher standard” refers to the level of claims she makes. The higher the standard the higher the claimed amount involved.

    Beachfront apartment versus water glimpse apartment – Ley holds herself to the higher standard.

  12. Guy taut

    I was listening to a radio program on Triple MMM called the night shift. The discussion was about Politician entitlements. Majority of the talk back callers were men, and they all went off about this govt. In a nutshell, this govt is got to go.

  13. Vic:

    Yes I know, but still. That doesn’t mean the health minister needs to take taxpayer-funded trips with him when he needs to tend to it.

    Unless there were valid work-related reasons for her travel to the Gold Coast, then this is an outrageous abuse of travel entitlements. She really does need to go.

  15. MarkJS

    I fully agree. Just noting a journalist on the ABC that realises that. A credit where its due post really.

    A bit of a contrast to Leigh Sales.

  16. So Ley secured finance for her spur of the moment property purchase? Did she really think nobody would check this stuff when she said this was unplanned?

  17. Gt

    The diesel particulate problem is very obvious to anyone living in central London.

    Policy Exchange noted that tax incentives increased diesel cars from 14% of Britain’s car fleet in 2001 to 36% now, but that diesel cars no longer produce significantly less CO2 than petrol cars. The thinktank said diesel cars and vans cause 70% of NOx emissions in London, with vehicles producing four times more than the official limits on average.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/11/call-for-pollution-tax-on-sales-of-new-diesel-cars-in-britain

    The statistics about diesel are crystal clear. It’s deadly
    Rigorous research over the past twenty years has proved the dangers of the fuel beyond all doubt

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/car-manufacturers/volkswagen/11899676/The-statistics-about-diesel-are-crystal-clear.-Its-deadly.html

  21. CT

    I like the personal pollution monitors. A big market around the world.

    Great to have an ability for citizens to not rely on government monitoring the air.

  22. Abbott and his fellow travellers gave Turnbull many signals to provide him a cabinet post or else.
    We can now see what the “else” was

  24. All this talk about ‘husband’, “wife’and ‘Partner’ puts me in mind of the great Peasant Revolt’ under Richard II, and its campaign slogan:-
    ‘When Adam delved, and Eve span. who was then the Gentleman?’

    of course Shakespeares’s play has two of his most memorable quotes. The Peasants’ catchcry as they went on a rampage “Kill the Lawyers!”, not to forget “Marry! God forbid”… Advice Ms Ley may, or may not have taken.

  28. Alan Davis.

    For Turnbull it makes sense but he won’t put Dutton in charge of Health. After all Abbott had to dump him for that portfolio.

    Abbott is dreaming if he thinks he is getting back to Cabinet.
    Turnbull loves being PM. He is not going to throw that away as he knows Abbott in cabinet would be.

  29. The Centrelink debacle is not going away any time soon. The government has produced a flawed systems guarentied to generate 100% false positives. They have admitted to 20%. Even then they have not shut it down.

  30. barney in saigon @ #77 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 9:49 am

    guytaur @ #71 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 9:42 am

    CT
    I like the personal pollution monitors. A big market around the world.
    Great to have an ability for citizens to not rely on government monitoring the air.

    A bit pointless or does it monitor you’re own personal emissions?
    Insert tube here. 🙂

    Oh good DOG above!
    Will one have to drink that foul potion required for nether endoscopy.
    Would one have to show signs of enjoyment?
    There are far too many question. Answers please Dorothy!

  31. BIS

    It would not be pointless to the Chinese to be able to monitor their pollution levels and obviously not to Londoners that are using them.

  33. The one common question in all these expense “scandals”, Bishop, Dastyari, Ley, …

    What was your though process that made you think this was appropriate behaviour?

  35. Sorry. I just realised I forgot to post the app combines the personal air monitors to track pollution levels around the city. Giving a map of city pollution levels that clean air activists can use for their campaigns

  39. The Centrelink debacle is not going away any time soon.

    Shorten has been active on Facebook this morning stating the govt needs to abandon the program.

  42. guytaur @ #81 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 9:55 am

    BIS
    It would not be pointless to the Chinese to be able to monitor their pollution levels and obviously not to Londoners that are using them.

    Of course it would.
    It’s a situation that can only be dealt with at the macro level.
    That means Government.
    It’s like having a GPS fitted to your house.
    It might be interesting but in the end it’s useless. 🙂

  44. BIS

    Not useless. Data truly independent of government available to activists every day takes the information release timetable and thus the news about the issue out of government hands.

    We know the Chinese government is acting only because it has to.

    How many lives would have been saved in the great 52 smogs if the information was independently available and did not have to wait for the worst to happen as Churchill delayed action.?

  46. Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
    Kellyanne Conway went to @MeetThePress this morning for an interview with @chucktodd. Dishonest media cut out 9 of her 10 minutes. Terrible!

    But then later he retweets the NBC tweet of Conway’s interview and if you click on the link it goes for 10mins. Talk about dishonest!

    Meet the Press ‏@MeetThePress 7h7 hours ago
    Watch our interview with @KellyannePolls: Russia “did not succeed” in attempts to sway election http://nbcnews.to/2i5hKXT #MTP

  49. Fess

    Donald Trump is a sociopath. Pathological lying is a feature. I still have fingers crossed that he doesn’t take the oath of President in 11 days time. Gulp

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