BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

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  1. PeeBee

    BK, indeed! Wonder what pressing business is that she has to attend to rather than front the media?

    On the way there she suffered another attack of “Impulse buying” ?

  2. Classic

    Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
    Matt
    14h14 hours ago
    Matt ‏@Matt_in_London
    Deciding whether or not to buy $800k apartment?
    Seconds.

    Deciding whether or not to repay rorted expenses?
    Several days.

    Pungent.

    #leybuy

  3. Daily Terroir ‏@johnnybridge2 · 2m2 minutes ago

    Joe O’Brien “as soon as Sussan is ready” inappropriate familiarity from @ABCNews24 #auspol

  4. he makes George W appear sane

    Never thought there’d ever be a time when you could honestly say this about someone, but it’s def true re Trump!

  5. Told you Turnbull has no moral or ethical fibre. He puts out a statement. Fmd

    Stephanie Anderson
    Stephanie Anderson – Verified account ‏@stephanieando

    #BREAKING: Statement from PM on @sussanley – “The Minister has agreed to stand aside without ministerial pay” #auspol
    3:22 PM – 8 Jan 2017
    29 RETWEETS5 LIKES

  6. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    John Wren
    1m1 minute ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    Classic. @TurnbullMalcolm TEMPORARILY replaces thief @sussanley with known criminal, @A_Sinodinos. It just gets worse. #auspol #leybuy

  7. I am not sure putting Senator I don’t recall is going in to replace is going to take attention away from the stink and pattern of how the LNP operates

  8. Local paper (The Border Mail) has always been a big Ley promoter.

    Today it has advertised across twitter and facebook that it would live stream the presser, and then directs you to this —

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4391849/rolling-coverage-sussan-ley-press-conference-in-albury/?cs=11

    ….which consists of precisely two statements:

    ‘10.26am: Ms Ley is almost half an hour late to the press conference.

    9am: Sussan Ley has called a press conference at 10am in Albury to address unanswered questions over her travel expenses. We’ll be live streaming from her office at 10am. Follow us here.’

    Ah, modern journalism….

  9. Thus Spake Mungo: Malcolm’s exciting foreign affairs

    The first week of 2017 was dominated by the distraction of Australia’s spat with Indonesia – or more properly Indonesia’s spat with Australia.

    The problem, it was belatedly revealed, was that the rotating troops training at the Campbell barracks in Perth were unhappy about some of the written material handed out for them and also about a couple of crude cracks from the local boys.

    Not too serious, one might have thought; no more than locker room banter, as Donald Trump would no doubt call it. But obviously the crack fighters of Kopassus have not read The Australian. Apparently they are unaware that giving insult and offence to ethnic and religious groups is part of the Australian way of life – the bulwark of free speech.

    But now our glorious leader may also be forced to a rethink over the perennial carpet of eggshells that is Israel.

    And as we know, when America acts, Australia follows. To do so, of course, will further antagonise the Arab nations and embolden local jihadists at a time when Turnbull desperately wants to bring as many Australian Moslems as possible into his revamped version of Team Australia. But to defy Trump’s ukase will outrage his recalcitrant right, for whom Israel is their own Holy Land.

    This is hardly the start Turnbull wants for his new year, which is meant to be about economic delivery. It will be both a domestic labyrinth demanding all his agility and yet another exciting foreign affair he could do without.

    MUCH MORE : http://www.echo.net.au/2017/01/thus-spake-mungo-malcolms-exciting-foreign-affairs/

  10. bk @ #130 Monday, January 9, 2017 at 10:29 am

    Ley’s defence seems to be that the Gold Coast is the centre of the political universe.

    So when are they moving the Parliament there?

    Barnaby’s action now become clearer,

    by moving to his electorate he was actually trying to keep them closer to the Parliament. 🙂

  11. “She (Ley) was educated at La Trobe University, the University of New South Wales and Charles Sturt University, and has master’s degrees in taxation and accountancy. She changed her name from Susan to Sussan due to a belief in numerology.”
    She sounds like a nutter to me.

  12. Fess

    Remember Sinodinos fronting up to ICAC and not recalling anything at all about his role as treasurer in Sydney Water. he was stood aside at the trike, but he is now a cleanskin apparently. This is the standard of this govt. Gutterlevel

  13. #BREAKING: Statement from PM on @sussanley – “The Minister has agreed to stand aside without ministerial pay” #auspol

    The perfect illustration of Turnbull’s dilemma. He can’t keep her, but he’s too weak to get rid of her. So limbo for Ley and the stupidity drags on. When does she get her gig back? What are the criteria?

    Stupid, spineless decision.

    Turnbull is easily the biggest pissant to lead a major party in Australia’s history. Downer would have played this dickhead off a break.

    She’s suspended until? Off to the sin bin for 10 minutes is it Mal?

  14. Victoria

    Yes. It also shows how desperate and dire Turnbull’s situation is. Bad as he is Abbott has a cleaner reputation with the public.

  15. She changed her name from Susan to Sussan due to a belief in numerology.

    Travel expense claims being entirely made up of fortuitous numbers.

  16. Vic:

    I do remember that, and yes, it would seem Sinodinos has now been rehabilitated.

    I reckon it’s a stretch though to call him a known criminal.

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