Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. itsthevibe
    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 7:57 pm

    Well played on Question 15, Guardian. Well played indeed.

    I though it was too easy; no fiction writer could make that up.

  3. Democratic?

    the contest for the White House was between a megalomaniac billionaire with no experience whatsoever in the “art of the possible” (but competent with entanglements with foreign governments and leaders, and an uncanny ability in twisting the tax law to his advantage) and a lifelong politician, widely regarded as a darling of Wall Street as well as a warmonger.

    If this is not a sign of a moribund political system, the candidate elected to become the 45th president of the United States lost the popular vote by a bigger margin than of any other US President. Donald Trump was elected president by trailing Hillary Clinton by nearly three million votes.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/12/america-flawed-democracy-161226072351815.html

  4. Beware the ‘Fake News’ phenomenon coming back to bite the traditional media from the realms of the Twilight Zone:

    In defining “fake news” so broadly and seeking to dilute its meaning, they are capitalizing on the declining credibility of all purveyors of information, one product of the country’s increasing political polarization. And conservatives, seeing an opening to undermine the mainstream media, a longtime foe, are more than happy to dig the hole deeper.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/25/us/politics/fake-news-claims-conservatives-mainstream-media-.html

  5. What a first class tosser………..
    Shares
    10,633
    Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has offered guarded praise of Donald Trump, arguing the president-elect “is not a DC insider” and could mean an opportunity for positive as well as negative change in the US.

    Assange described his feelings about the US election results in an interview as “mixed” before going on to sharply criticize Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and providing a more ambivalent assessment of Trump’s asce

  8. Fess

    Assange supporters have been suggesting over the past few weeks, that he had gone missing. Yet he has popped again spewing his crapola

  9. Vic:

    He went missing? I thought Assange supporters were quietly crab walking away from him.

    Wonder what they’ll make of his comments.

  12. I’m a complete drongo. I accidentally created a Facebook account while trying to comment on another site. Facebook apperently already seem to know where I live, or at least where I was. I tried to disconnect the account by many attempted logins with the wrong pasword and confirmation code, but they still recognise my email (fortunately not my main one). I was able to change my name to a fake one and retreat, but I am in their database forever. And as Woody Allen said, forever is a real long time, especially towards the end.

  14. Steve777:

    You can say it: he’s a wanker. Nobody’s going to disagree with you.

    I wonder if he’s still holed up in the Ecuadorean embassy, claiming the US would extradite him. It’s been how many years now?

  15. Just read through the Guardian piece…..my god, how delusional IS Assange?

    “Donald Trump is not a DC insider, he is part of the wealthy ruling elite of the United States”.
    1. The two are mostly synonymous these days.
    2. Hair Drumpf has no background in politics, it’s true – but he’s a corrupt, thin-skinned, narcissistic bully with a hair-trigger temper. THIS is who Assange preferred as the President of the US!

    “Hillary Clinton and the network around her imprisoned one of our alleged sources for 35 years, Chelsea Manning”
    Not unless that “network around her” includes the Pentagon – it was they who imprisoned Manning!

    Jeez…..Assange comes off as a little unhinged in that interview. Perhaps his long years of “asylum” have cracked him a little?

  18. Assange uses the same arguments some PBers here used to write off Clinton as the superior candidate: she’s a Washington insider yada yada. Assange continues to reveal himself as a deep seated misogynist.

    Bill Maher summed up this POTUS election as the year of amateurs because the Republican candidates all ran on their lack of governing experience. Ben Carson proudly boasted that he had no governing experience at all, and that’s why he deserved to run for the White House. A remarkable claim from a brain surgeon. Supposedly he’d take his kid to an electrician if s/he needed medical assistance, cause actual medical practitioners are useless ‘insiders’ and therefore not up to the job. It’s remarkable that people lap this stuff up, including supposed know-betters like Assange.

  20. Whats to stop me creating a kickstarter saying I’ll give a million dollars to anyone who breaks down the door of the Ecuadorian embassy and drags the little shit to the authorities. I presume quite a few laws, but which specific ones?

  21. Meanwhile, “interesting times” for Israel.

    Israelis wonder how long Netanyahu can back settlements and two-state solution

    Jerusalem: For years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has played a double act, competing domestically with his right-wing rivals in backing the settlement project all over the Israeli-occupied West Bank while professing support for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.

    Now, with the stinging United Nations Security Council resolution on Friday condemning Israeli settlement construction as lacking any legal validity, Israeli politicians and analysts on the right, the left and in the political centre say Netanyahu’s game may soon be up.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/israelis-wonder-how-long-netanyahu-can-back-settlements-and-twostate-solution-20161226-gthvtn.html

  22. Obama also campaigned on the premise that he wasn’t a Washington insider.

    At the time I said that that would mean he’d find it hard to get things done.

  23. Zoomster:

    Obama has achieved a lot in his time in office. The difference is at least he was willing to compromise and negotiate.

  24. confessions @ #1768 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    Assange uses the same arguments some PBers here used to write off Clinton as the superior candidate: she’s a Washington insider yada yada. Assange continues to reveal himself as a deep seated misogynist.
    Bill Maher summed up this POTUS election as the year of amateurs because the Republican candidates all ran on their lack of governing experience. Ben Carson proudly boasted that he had no governing experience at all, and that’s why he deserved to run for the White House. A remarkable claim from a brain surgeon. Supposedly he’d take his kid to an electrician if s/he needed medical assistance, cause actual medical practitioners are useless ‘insiders’ and therefore not up to the job. It’s remarkable that people lap this stuff up, including supposed know-betters like Assange.

    It’s the myth of ‘common sense’. Like the country would work just great if the politicians just applied common sense instead of doing the bidding of the elites and the minorities. So having political/policy skills and governance skills is just bullshit invented by the power elites to entrench their power and graft. Really, there’s nothing to it at all. Just put someone with common sense in charge and everything will right itself.

  25. tpof @ #1774 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    confessions @ #1768 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    Assange uses the same arguments some PBers here used to write off Clinton as the superior candidate: she’s a Washington insider yada yada. Assange continues to reveal himself as a deep seated misogynist.
    Bill Maher summed up this POTUS election as the year of amateurs because the Republican candidates all ran on their lack of governing experience. Ben Carson proudly boasted that he had no governing experience at all, and that’s why he deserved to run for the White House. A remarkable claim from a brain surgeon. Supposedly he’d take his kid to an electrician if s/he needed medical assistance, cause actual medical practitioners are useless ‘insiders’ and therefore not up to the job. It’s remarkable that people lap this stuff up, including supposed know-betters like Assange.

    It’s the myth of ‘common sense’. Like the country would work just great if the politicians just applied common sense instead of doing the bidding of the elites and the minorities. So having political/policy skills and governance skills is just bullshit invented by the power elites to entrench their power and graft. Really, there’s nothing to it at all. Just put someone with common sense in charge and everything will right itself.

    Who is supposed to written off Clinton on PB?
    I can’t think of anyone.

  27. It’s the myth of ‘common sense’. Like the country would work just great if the politicians just applied common sense instead of doing the bidding of the elites and the minorities.

    Yeah. The Liberals and Palmers and Hansons appeal to the same thinking.

    From time to time we see Laborites pop up saying Labor should be preselecting more numptyville trades types as MPs. While not entirely discounting the merit of diversity among our parliamentarians, at this point I’m wondering just what ‘Real Person’ Senator Madigan achieved in his 6 year tenure, or that kangaroo poo flinging, rev head former Senator from Victoria achieved in his short tenure.

  28. tpof @ #1776 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 11:26 pm

    Who is supposed to written off Clinton on PB?
    I can’t think of anyone.

    ?

    You responded to Confessions assertion that “Assange uses the same arguments some PBers here used to write off Clinton as the superior candidate: she’s a Washington insider yada yada.”
    I asked who was that on PB as I cannot think of anyone.

    I would also add that she asserts: “Assange continues to reveal himself as a deep seated misogynist.” I see nothing gender based in that article. Confessions is just making shit up again.

  29. confessions @ #1777 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 11:33 pm

    It’s the myth of ‘common sense’. Like the country would work just great if the politicians just applied common sense instead of doing the bidding of the elites and the minorities.

    Yeah. The Liberals and Palmers and Hansons appeal to the same thinking.
    From time to time we see Laborites pop up saying Labor should be preselecting more numptyville trades types as MPs. While not entirely discounting the merit of diversity among our parliamentarians, at this point I’m wondering just what ‘Real Person’ Senator Madigan achieved in his 6 year tenure, or that kangaroo poo flinging, rev head former Senator from Victoria achieved in his short tenure.

    And again we see Confessions sneering at people who work in trades and are not professionals. Exactly as she was doing the other night regarding types of vehicle driven.

  30. Bemused

    Thanks for that response. I could not work out whether you were being funny, were not aware of some on PB who were obsessive Clinton haters or just dissing Confessions. I see it was the last.

  31. tpof @ #1780 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 11:49 pm

    Bemused
    Thanks for that response. I could not work out whether you were being funny, were not aware of some on PB who were obsessive Clinton haters or just dissing Confessions. I see it was the last.

    I am aware DTT thought Clinton was more of a threat to peace than Trump (with Russia anyway) but that is not the same as being an obsessive Clinton hater.
    The rest is all there in posts tonight in her own words.

  32. Part two of the Newspoll quarterly summery, this time broken down by age group.

    https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/newspoll1.pdf full table here

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/older-voters-turn-on-malcolm-turnbull-as-pensions-changes-loom/news-story/0ef7ad550d5a85ac3bfd2f10892fba0d paywalled

    Older voters turn on Malcolm Turnbull as pensions changes loom
    The Australian 12:00AM December 27, 2016
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Older voters are turning against Malcolm Turnbull’s government, with the loss of support wiping out small gains the Coalition is making among younger voters, while Labor is enjoying a bounce in its standing among men.

    An analysis of 8508 voters in Newspoll surveys taken exclusively for The Australian from ­October to December reveals a staggering seven-percentage-point plunge in the primary vote for the Coalition among voters over 50 since the July 2 election.

    Support for the government in the largest voting demographic has fallen from 49.9 per cent to 43 per cent, with two-thirds of the lost vote shifting to Labor and one-third to independents and minor parties such as One Nation.

    The massive voting margin of almost 20 points that the Coalition enjoyed over Labor among over-50 voters at the election has been slashed to just eight points as the government has faced ­criticism about an overhaul of superannuation taxes, changes to the pension assets test and concern about aged care reforms.

    The Newspoll analysis also shows the near eight-point lead for the Coalition among men at the election has been halved.

    Labor’s support among men has risen by 2.6 points to 36 per cent while the Coalition is down 1.8 points to a primary vote of 40 per cent of men.

    Ian Yates, chief executive of COTA Australia, a lobby group for older Australians, said older ­voters appreciated the need to ­repair the budget but feared they were making a greater sacrifice than other groups.

  33. TPOF:

    Bemused has had an irrational obsession with me for years. I no longer bother with his rubbish and encourage others to do the same.

  34. It is fascinating to see that being a lame duck president has advantages.. You can do what you think is right in the UN without worrying about Electoral backlash.I wonder who would be MHR for Melbourne Ports, if we didn’t have to worry about electoral backlashes!

  35. It is fascinating to see that being a lame duck president has advantages..

    But the ultimate disadvantage is that you are limited to running for 2 terms. Imagine if Obama was permitted a run at a 3rd term. We certainly wouldn’t have Trump as POTUS.

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