Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. What gets me is the % of pensioners who think the libs are their best chance of them living in utopia for ever after.

    Its sad, and i think a function of the fear and skeer levels being advocated by the RW of politics. A position i hold is that the world is now, even with with every thing bad that is happening, a far safer place for far more people than it ever has been ever. Particularly for those of us who live in well resourced democracies with the rule of law.

    We have challenges fer sure that we should address, but there is no reason for some of the viscous, fear based hatred i have seen from some older people. They like the idea of Hanson as she will somehow protect them?? Bullshit. Actually don’t think she is going to be any more than the flash in the pan or icky bursting boil she was before.

    Politics as a High school subject?

    Love to see it taught under a proper curriculum. Its important from a citizenship perspective. Accusation of “bias” from teachers will be the stumbling block.
    The other one i’d like to see emphasis on is proper comparative religion /philosophy teaching.

  2. But the truly amazing thing is that the Rolling Stones are all going strong!

    They wrote Sympathy for the Devil so quid pro quo he looks after them. 🙂

  3. If the West more generally now understands that the USSR did the heavy lifting (it killed 9 german soldiers out of every 11 killed) the West has yet to get even a glimmering that the Chinese killed many more Japanese soldiers than anyone else in WW2.
    Many more Chinese died in that war than did Russians.
    There are other ‘common knowledge’ gaps.
    In Java in one year alone the Japanese starved to death over a thousand TIMES more people than died in the Sandakan death marches.
    In India in one year alone the British deliberately allowed to die of starvation about 1,000 TIMES more Indians than Aussies who died on the Burma Railway.
    Measured by percentage of human and materiel losses against total global losses during World War Two in NO category (eg tanks, ships, planes) did Australian losses reach 1% of the total.
    You will not find these statistics displayed prominently in the Australian War Memorial.

  4. They wrote Sympathy for the Devil so quid pro quo he looks after them.

    Well lots of old* people back then said it was theDevil’s music.

    * Maybe 10 or 20 years younger than I am now

  5. It does point out that Russia did all the heavy lifting during WWII.

    As long as you ignore the Pacific where Russia did not do so much as raise a little finger.

    There is no doubt that Russians paid the heaviest price by far for Hitler’s aggression, but claiming hero status simply for that – as though the Russians took up the fight because nobody else cared enough to – is communistic claptrap.

    There is no doubt that Russia would have paid a far lighter price if its paranoid and psychopathic leader had not liquidated pretty much the entire command structure of the Soviet army in 1938.

    Further, if that same psychopath had not done a separate deal with his fellow genocidal maniac, Hitler, to divvy up Poland between them, Hitler may well have not invaded Poland. He certainly would not have the space and time to refine his massive war machine over the two years between the invasion of Poland and launching Operation Barbarossa.

    Then you have to consider that the same psychopath and his naive (and considerably less so) followers elsewhere in the world dismissed the entire war as a struggle between dying capitalist dinosaurs and ignored every indication, sometimes incredibly wilfully, that Hitler was preparing to attack the Soviet Union. He did not use the time he bought by his devil’s pact with Hitler to put his nation on a preparation for war footing but rather trust in Hitler not to break his pact.

    So when Hitler did invade, not only was Russia grossly inadequately prepared, it did not even have sufficient basic weapons like rifles to fight the highly armed Nazi forces. To the extent that Stalin ordered unarmed Russian soldiers to be human shields or to wait until armed soldiers were killed in order to salvage their weapons.

    Finally, while in no way dismissing the incredible heroism of many Russians (heroism paralleled pretty much by fighters and civilians across the allied forces), they had no choice. It is one thing to do the heavy lifting when not doing so results in imminent death; it is another when not under direct threat. While Hollywood has been ludicrous in overstating the role of US combat forces, the fact is that the USA could most easily have done very little lifting by following the line being pressed by Lindbergh and his fellow non-interventionists. A President other than Roosevelt (perhaps a naive Trump type) could easily have followed a much less supportive line towards Britain. It would have been an incredibly short-sighted thing to do, but we saw Stalin being very short-sighted in that regard.

    So, yeah. Russia had no choice but to do the heavy lifting and suffer the greatest losses of any country on the allied side. The USA could easily have been dismissed as warmongers by people who did not want the USA to enter the war. The Nazis and their fellow travellers in the US and elsewhere (the Oliver Stones of their day – but from the right wing) certainly portrayed Roosevelt and his key supporters as warmongers.

    We are all lucky that the USA did any lifting at all, let alone the heavy lifting it did. Russian losses were immense – but they had no choice or their losses would have been greater. They certainly were not interested in acting pre-emptively until their own arses were on the line.

  6. You will not find these statistics displayed prominently in the Australian War Memorial.

    There’s a reason for that. Hint: look at the first word in the title Australian War Memorial.

  7. boerwar @ #1709 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 2:03 pm

    If the West more generally now understands that the USSR did the heavy lifting (it killed 9 german soldiers out of every 11 killed) the West has yet to get even a glimmering that the Chinese killed many more Japanese soldiers than anyone else in WW2.
    Many more Chinese died in that war than did Russians.
    There are other ‘common knowledge’ gaps.
    In Java in one year alone the Japanese starved to death over a thousand TIMES more people than died in the Sandakan death marches.
    In India in one year alone the British deliberately allowed to die of starvation about 1,000 TIMES more Indians than Aussies who died on the Burma Railway.
    Measured by percentage of human and materiel losses against total global losses during World War Two in NO category (eg tanks, ships, planes) did Australian losses reach 1% of the total.
    You will not find these statistics displayed prominently in the Australian War Memorial.

    Yeah, yeah, right Boerwar, as you have told us many times before.
    But the Chinese were incapable of defeating the Japanese except maybe over a very long time by attrition.

  8. the USA could most easily have done very little lifting by following the line being pressed by Lindbergh and his fellow non-interventionists

    And they could have ignored the bombing of Pearl Harbor, of course.

  9. I thought that the Japanese ambassador in Washington formally handed a Declaration of War to the Americans a few hours before the attack on Pearl Harbour.
    Backing up their Japanese allies, the Germans then declared war on the United States

  10. billie @ #1719 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    I thought that the Japanese ambassador in Washington formally handed a Declaration of War to the Americans a few hours before the attack on Pearl Harbour.
    Backing up their Japanese allies, the Germans then declared war on the United States

    That was the intention, but it got delayed until the attack had occurred. Can’t recall the exact details.

  11. I thought that the Japanese ambassador in Washington formally handed a Declaration of War to the Americans a few hours before the attack on Pearl Harbour.

    That was the plan, but due to decoding delays the Japanese message arrived after Pearl Harbour started.

  12. corio @ #1718 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    the USA could most easily have done very little lifting by following the line being pressed by Lindbergh and his fellow non-interventionists
    And they could have ignored the bombing of Pearl Harbor, of course.

    There might not have been a bombing of Pearl Harbor if the USA had not flexed its muscles re China. Alternatively, the USA could have taken a less aggressive stance towards the Japanese in the Pacific. And if Roosevelt had not been so belligerent towards Hitler, Hitler may not have declared war on the USA. The critical thing is that the USA heavy lifting, especially in Europe was less necessary for the US future than the Russian heavy lifting under direct life and death struggle attack.

  13. I should emphasise again my main beef in that the price paid by Russians is seen as noble because it was so great, while that paid by the citizens of the Western powers appears to be denigrated for some reason. Apart from France and Britain (and the British Empire), whose early responses to the invasion of Poland were poor despite declaring war on Germany, pretty much everyone else had the war thrust upon them. But the Russian price paid was commensurate with the size and scale of attack on the Soviet Union, magnified by Stalin’s paranoid bloody-minded waste of his own people’s lives and his own incompetence as a leader.

  14. b
    ‘But the Chinese were incapable of defeating the Japanese except maybe over a very long time by attrition.’
    Well, they DO play the long game.
    I dare guess that they consider that the job has not been finalized, as yet.
    Scratch a Japanese and fear of same does not take long to surface.
    But I would not know.

  15. The French could have nipped WWII in the bud before it got started. When the Germans reclaimed the Ruhr Valley, the French forces which far outnumbered the Germans, could’ve marched in and sent the Germans packing. Hitler would’ve been finished politically and much destruction could’ve been avoided.

    The French squibbed it and the rest, as they say, is history.

  16. I wonder where Trump’s thoughts would lead the ‘free world’ in a time of him thinking it was worth fighting for?
    God bless America!
    Would we follow like pet lambs?

    Stalin’s paranoid bloody-minded waste of his own people’s lives and his own incompetence as a leader.

  17. TPOF@ 4.33 pm…………..”Apart from France and Britain (and the British Empire) whose responses to the invasion of Poland were poor……….” is a mean view of history of that time.
    After the great losses in WW1 by both Britain and France, there was little stomach for a return bout merely 20 years later. I think this feeling is born out the by speeches of the PM of the day, Chamberlain, and KGV1 at the time. And, while France may have built the Maginot Line, and the Hawker Company was building Hurricans as fast as it could – without a definite commitment from the government that they would buy them – neither country was in any fit state to take on the Germans – let alone go to the aid of the Poles. As many British soldiers found, “The Land Fit of Heroes” was anything but in the 1920s and the British public were justifiably cynical about more war being foisted on them. Belatedly, and to Churchill’s credit, it was understood that Hitler intended to take no prisoners and WW2 became a fight for survival for the British.

  18. TPOF@ 4.33 pm…………..”Apart from France and Britain (and the British Empire) whose responses to the invasion of Poland were poor……….” is a mean view of history of that time.

    You notice that I did not refer to the takeover of Czechoslovakia. The problem was that France, in particular, went along with declaring war against Hitler, but did not follow up with any attempt at preparing for German invasion.

    But as Dan G pointed out a couple of posts earlier, the real problem was not responding to reoccupation of the Ruhr or even earlier breaches of the remilitarisation terms of the Versailles Treaty. The victors of the First World War made two catastrophic mistakes. The first was imposing the Versailles Treaty on Germany. The second was, having imposed it, not enforcing it at the critical time. After that it was just detail.

  19. CTar1 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 4:34 pm

    The real US contribution in Europe was supplies and logistics.

    ****************************************

    The Russians sure paid a heavy price in human costs – but as Churchill said “The Russians ripped the guts out of the German Army ” ….. The Russians benefited greatly under Lend Lease in aid/equipment in planes tanks etc etc from both the UK and the US which replaced their own enormous losses in equipment

    Did Russia Really Go It Alone? How Lend-Lease Helped the Soviets Defeat the Germans

    The Soviets have long insisted that Lend-Lease aid made little difference. Newly discovered files tell another story. After a series of dramatic Nazi successes during the opening stages of Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941, foreign observers predicted that Soviet resistance would soon collapse.

    http://www.historynet.com/did-russia-really-go-it-alone-how-lend-lease-helped-the-soviets-defeat-the-germans.htm

  20. TPOF – a little later. From a strategic point of view, you are probably correct but a lot of the European peace was thrashed out by the US in any event – they being late-comers but decisive in it all. With all the best will in the world, the French did not want to step in a confront the Germans in the Rhur for much the same reasons they and the British did not want war over Czechoslovakia – that country so far away, whose people the British knew so little or cared about at that time.

  21. Between June 1941 and May 1945, Britain delivered to the USSR:
    ##3,000+ Hurricanes
    ##4,000+ other aircraft
    ##27 naval vessels
    ##5,218 tanks
    ##5,000+ anti-tank guns
    ##4,020 ambulances and trucks
    ##323 machinery trucks
    ##2,560 Universal Carriers
    ##1,721 motorcycles
    ##£1.15bn worth of aircraft engines
    ##600 radar and sonar sets
    ##Hundreds of naval guns
    ##15 million pairs of boots

  22. US – Let’s look at the statistics for arms shipments from that year. From the onset of the war until the end of 1941, the Red Army received 1.76 million rifles, automatic weapons, and machine guns, 53,700 artillery and mortars, 5,400 tanks, and 8,200 warplanes.

  23. Barney In Saigon,
    I got 15/20. What did you get?

    A couple I missed because I didn’t think it was the obvious answer and another because I couldn’t decide between Pauline Hanson and Jacquie Lambie. 🙂

  24. c@tmomma @ #1736 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    Barney In Saigon,
    I got 15/20. What did you get?
    A couple I missed because I didn’t think it was the obvious answer and another because I couldn’t decide between Pauline Hanson and Jacquie Lambie. 🙂

    17/20
    I missed the deep thinking Nat.
    Trembled at the thought of Trump.
    And the Emperor with no clothes.
    Your pauline / ja

  25. c@tmomma @ #1736 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    Barney In Saigon,
    I got 15/20. What did you get?
    A couple I missed because I didn’t think it was the obvious answer and another because I couldn’t decide between Pauline Hanson and Jacquie Lambie. 🙂

    I only got 11. 😮
    Mustn’t have been paying attention.
    I did pass over a few correct answers thinking them ‘too obvious’ and expecting something trickier.


  26. Bushfire Bill
    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 4:21 pm

    I thought that the Japanese ambassador in Washington formally handed a Declaration of War to the Americans a few hours before the attack on Pearl Harbour.
    at ws
    That was the plan, but due to decoding delays the Japanese message arrived after Pearl Harbour started.

    The history I read had the USA knowing what was going on because they had already decoded the message and when the Japanese ambassador showed up he was kept waiting so that the attached happened before the declaration.

  27. How was your christmas everyone? My car broke down on the way to my parents and the mechanics won’t open until the 2nd of January. Great stuff! Thankfully I’m a Gold member of the NRMA and they called a tow-truck out to me, so my car is sitting next door to the local mechanic rather than in the median strip between four lanes of the Great Western Highway.

  28. blanket criticism @ #1743 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 7:15 pm

    How was your christmas everyone? My car broke down on the way to my parents and the mechanics won’t open until the 2nd of January. Great stuff! Thankfully I’m a Gold member of the NRMA and they called a tow-truck out to me, so my car is sitting next door to the local mechanic rather than in the median strip between four lanes of the Great Western Highway.

    All good chez moi here in outer Newcastle.
    Did you manage to get to your parents?
    If so, who/m were the huggers and who/m the huggees? ❤

  29. I got my father who is a rusted on Labor man and who describes himself as a christian socialist the Arnold Swarzenegger autobiography. He loves biographies and history so it could have gone either way, fortunately he seemed to think it would be great.


  30. paaptsef
    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 7:10 pm
    Cannot believe I was marked down for answering correctly Her cattle dog, Blue

    I agree; be kind, assume the women has some brains.

  31. Yeah, the tow-truck driver dropped me off. Everybody hugs in my family except my parents who aren’t really hugging people.

  32. One of the major reasons that Germany went ahead with the remilitarisation of the Rhineland is that then new that Edward VII opposed taking action against it and threatened to abdicate if action was taken against Germany. This is likely a contributing factor to the abdication later that year.

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