Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. This has all started since Scott Morrison and Christian Porter and Alan Tudge, hard cases all, were put in charge of Welfare. If only they applied the same level of zeal to extracting taxes out of ‘agile’ companies who avoid the paying of tax whenever and wherever possible.

    Instead this government prefers to apply the ‘Pulling the wings off flies’ approach to the most vulnerable in our society.

    Same old, the straighteners and the punishers screwing anyone they don’t want to understand.

  2. Good morning, bludgers.
    Still warm overnight and this morning a red sky and a nesty wind.
    I can’t find much news to read today. Perhaps everyone is sleeping off their roasts and pavs, including journos.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers on the day that torpor usually sets in. The cupboard is almost completely bare when it comes to things worth linking.

    More questions from Michael Gordon for Dutton over the recent refugee death.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/why-did-faysal-die-the-questions-mr-dutton-has-to-answer-20161224-gthnu8.html
    Given the increasing scrutiny Trump is dissolving his charitable foundation.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/10c8a1429fbc4a0b07cbe686b11a19e8

    Mark Knight takes into the Channel 7 boardroom.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/why-did-faysal-die-the-questions-mr-dutton-has-to-answer-20161224-gthnu8.html
    Bill Leak’s still at it.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/10c8a1429fbc4a0b07cbe686b11a19e8

  4. Good Boxing Day Bludgers!
    I guess everyone will have their television tuned to that elitist sport, sailing, today. The Cricket will hopefully be more entertaining.

    Anyway, no wind to speak of in Sydney today so it will likely be a very slow start and akin to watching paint dry as the yachts sail out of the Heads to Hobart.

  5. How about we start the day with a Keating quote?

    Kerry O’Brien: ‘Why were you interested in learning about power at 18?’

    Keating: ‘That’s the business I had decided I wanted to be in.’

    Simple. As. That. 🙂

  6. C@t: the seabreeze will be well and truly up and running by 1:00PM, so the yachts will have a moderate, possibly strong NE’er pushing them down the coast.

  7. Same old, the straighteners and the punishers screwing anyone they don’t want to understand.

    They don’t want to understand the people their screwing and punishing, but I think that the main determinant is that they are least able fight back. Even if they wanted to (which they don’t), they wouldn’t dare suggest that fossil fuel interests, the miners, the banks, retail chains and multi nationals pay their fair share of tax, stop screwing their customers or employees, or ease up on screwing the environment.

  8. Oakeshott Country
    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 8:21 am
    “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDGPaJQAf1I”

    ..not a patch on a stirring rendition of ‘Advance Ostrylya Fair!!’ ..or ‘Waltzing Matilda’, but.. 😉

  9. markjs
    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 9:15 am

    Oakeshott Country

    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 8:21 am
    “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDGPaJQAf1I”
    ..not a patch on a stirring rendition of ‘Advance Ostrylya Fair!!’ ..or ‘Waltzing Matilda’, but..

  10. markjs
    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 9:15 am

    Oakeshott Country

    Monday, December 26, 2016 at 8:21 am
    “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDGPaJQAf1I”
    ..not a patch on a stirring rendition of ‘Advance Ostrylya Fair!!’ ..or ‘Waltzing Matilda’, but..


    For those who’ve come across the seas
    We’ve boundless plains to share;

    Sad but one is a lie; we really should do something about the that, perhaps:

    For those who’ve come across the seas
    We’ve have a place called Naura;

    Surly as it is it encourages people smugglers.

    Down came a jumbuck to drink at the billabong, 

    Up jumped the swagman and grabbed him with glee,
    
he sang as he shoved that jumbuck in his tucker bag,

    The other is a sheep stealing ditty.
    Can’t see tears for either.

  11. BK..

    Today’s Bill Leak reminds me of those disgusting propaganda drawings of Jews during the last war..

    ..absolutely despicable ..racist ..designed to inflame racism & xenophobia in others..

    ..words aren’t enough to express how angry & sad I feel seeing that image..

  12. C@t: I don’t know anything about yacht racing either, I just like to follow the weather.

    P.S. Judging by the forecast, Sydney (Observatory Hill) looks set to equal its warmest December minimum on record (20.1) and just miss its warmest December maximum on record (28.4 vs 28.6). Much of NSW looks likely to come close to or exceed its warmest ever December.

  13. https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/newspoll.pdf Table, no paywall on this link, all figures here. Its the aggregate of three months’s polling, not a new poll.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/strife-in-the-sunshine-state-for-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/e35d422cc759d8de32e9b0bc36eafee3 Article, paywalled, google the URL.

    Newspoll: strife in the sunshine state for Malcolm Turnbull
    The Australian 12:00AM December 26, 2016
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Malcolm Turnbull will enter 2017 desperately needing to claw back support in the crucial battleground state of Queensland, where his government has suffered a massive 5 per cent swing against it in the six months since the election.

    A demographic analysis of the Newspoll surveys taken exclusively for The Australian in the ­December quarter also reveals a sharp swing against the Turnbull government in Western Australia, while Labor has made smaller gains in NSW and Victoria but lost ground in South Australia.

    The analysis of 8508 voters in Newspoll surveys taken from Oct­ober to December shows support for the Turnbull government in capital cities is unchanged since the election, but in the rest of the country it has suffered a significant fall of 3.7 per cent in two-party terms.

    Bill Shorten is expected to mount a new year blitz in Queensland, having told colleagues he regards the state as most crucial to his chances of winning the next election, which could be as early as 20 months away. While Labor won seven seats from the Coalition in NSW in the July 2 poll, it gained only two in Queensland, falling short of winning in another half a dozen.

    The Newspoll analysis reveals Labor has now jumped ahead of the Coalition in Queensland to hold a lead of 51 per cent to 49 per cent in two-party terms, a 5 per cent swing from the Coalition’s 54-46 per cent share of the vote in the election.

    Queensland had been the ALP’s weakest state in the election, where it polled a primary vote of 30.9 per cent, but its support has since climbed to 35 per cent while the LNP’s primary vote has tumbled from 43.2 per cent to 38 per cent.

    The shift in the sunshine state has been mostly from the ­Coalition to Labor. Support for the Greens is unchanged at 9 per cent while the share of the vote for other parties and independents has increased by just 1 point to 18 per cent. However, within this category, support for One Nation stands at 8 per cent, up from 5.5 per cent at the election.

    A uniform swing of 5 per cent at the next election would see the Coalition at risk of losing eight seats, although One Nation preferences would be vital in determining results.

  14. Some more sad Xmas news :

    Ex-Wham singer George Michael dies

    Singer George Michael has died aged 53, his publicist has said.

    The star, who launched his career with Wham in the 1980s and later continued his success as a solo performer, is said to have “passed away peacefully at home”.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-38432862

  15. Andrew Probyn in today’s “West Australian” has a story that Christian Porter may not have totally up front on his knowledge and role in the Bell Resources legislation
    Porter’s Knowledge Of Bell Saga Under A Cloud
    EXCLUSIVE
    › Andrew Probyn Federal Political Editor

    Christian Porter was told a lot more about the State Government’s bold but disastrous bid to seize control of the Bell Group assets than he first revealed.

    On November 30, Mr Porter, the Federal Social Services Minister , told Parliament that between a meeting with Insurance Commission of WA chief executive Rod Whithear in March last year and receiving an email from the WA State Solicitor’s office a year later, he did not receive “any further information” about the Bell litigation. ………………..
    But in a letter to the Clerk of the House of Representatives, hand-delivered late on Wednesday , three weeks after addressing Parliament on the issue, Mr Porter revealed a substantial trail of correspondence with his office about the Bell issue in that 12-month ……………..

  16. Down came a jumbuck to drink at the billabong,
    Up jumped the swagman and grabbed him with glee,
    he sang as he shoved that jumbuck in his tucker bag,

    Is not really up to the standard of the third verse of Sacred War:

    We shall drive a bullet into the forehead
    Of the rotten fascist filth,
    For the scum of humanity
    We shall build a solid coffin! </i.

  17. oakeshott country @ #1660 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 8:21 am

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDGPaJQAf1I
    Much of The Red Army choir has bee lost in a plane crash. Here The Choir and Elena Vargnea belt out “Sacred War” – at the end there is not a dry eye in the house

    That song was used as the theme tune for “The Unknown War” narrated by Burt Lancaster with some excellent poetry by Rod McKuen. A fabulous series that disappeared for a long while but is now available on DVD.

  18. The mining lobby never takes a holiday. “Let’s slip this through at Christmas”.

    The nod for the latest expansion also came even though the Planning Department hired an independent expert to review methods for estimating the height of so-called drainage zones above coal extractions, but is yet to get the results. The drainage zone is the area above an extraction where water drains relatively freely towards the mine.

    “Due to the complexity of the issues and the significant amount of work required, this report is now not expected to be finalised and peer reviewed until early 2017,” a Planning spokeswoman told Fairfax Media.

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/outrageous-coal-mine-gets-expansion-nod-despite-secret-incomplete-studies-20161222-gtgz4d.html

  19. I don’t like Christian Porter. I just don’t. A more blatant example of Australia’s Bunyip Aristocracy I am yet to see in this parliament. His sense of his superiority over the rest of us mere mortals is palpable. yet he continues to screw up everything he touches in politics.

    I hope Labor feel his Brooks Brothers collar in the New Year for misleading parliament over his knowledge of the Bell Affair.

    Sick ’em Mark Dreyfus!

    And the conniving Coalition have the audacity to squawk about Union corruption! It is as nothing compared to the corruption of the State.

    I hope Barnett goes down in a flaming heap at the WA State Election and he drags Porter’s skinny rear end down with him.

    Karma is a bitch, eh boys? And I hope she bitch slaps you real hard!

    End of rant (too much Olbermann 😉 )

  20. oakeshott country @ #1677 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 10:36 am

    Down came a jumbuck to drink at the billabong,
    Up jumped the swagman and grabbed him with glee,
    he sang as he shoved that jumbuck in his tucker bag,

    Is not really up to the standard of the third verse of Sacred War:
    We shall drive a bullet into the forehead
    Of the rotten fascist filth,
    For the scum of humanity
    We shall build a solid coffin! </i.

    “The Great Patriotic War” was a war with no quarter asked or given.
    The losses and suffering of the Soviet dwarfed that of any other nation on the allied side.
    My father, a WWII veteran had no doubt about where the war was won. Clue… don’t look to Hollywood.

  21. C@t

    I don’t like Christian Porter. I just don’t.

    An instinctive drawing back on my part, too, and I hadn’t even heard his superior answers in QT, which simply confirmed it. Heaven forbid he ever gets the Federal Treasurer gig.

  22. Has anyone ever actually heard someone call a sheep called a ‘jumbuck’, say an old time from the outback or an Aborigine? The term seems to have fallen into disuse before my memory (late 50s/early 60s), apart from Waltzing Matilda. It was apparently an Aboriginal name coined for sheep, which they would never have seen before the arrival of Europeans:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumbuck

  23. Lizzie, there is something to be said about intuition. My OH has a particularly sensitive 6th sense which I have noticed is very accurate. I am oblivious, but she is more often than not ‘on the money’ when it comes to identifying a sleaze.

  24. Fashion advice.
    Do not put your slippers on the wrong feet.
    Unless, of course, you are striving for that avant garde effect.
    Perhaps walking backward can resolve the strange tight feeling in the feet.
    Also
    Can the revolution be delayed until it becomes clear which way the test match is heading. ❓
    A very good morning to all the boys and girls. 🙂

  25. bemused @ #1682 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 10:54 am

    “The Great Patriotic War” was a war with no quarter asked or given.
    The losses and suffering of the Soviet dwarfed that of any other nation on the allied side.
    My father, a WWII veteran had no doubt about where the war was won. Clue… don’t look to Hollywood.

    For Xmas I got a DVD called The Untold History Of The United States by Oliver Stone. It only covers the post WWI period and doesn’t paint a particularly glowing view of any of the POTUS’s.

    It does point out that Russia did all the heavy lifting during WWII. What was interesting was the pointing out that Truman had no need to authorise the dropping of atomic bombs on Japan, and what REALLY caused Japan to surrender was not the bombs, but Russia joining in the war against them. Russia began its campaign on Japan on the same day that Hiroshima was obliterated.

    I haven’t finished watching all of it yet, however it’s becoming clear that the greatest threat to world peace and democracy is not Fascism, Communism or even terrorism. It’s American foreign policy.

  26. dan gulberry @ #1688 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 11:34 am

    bemused @ #1682 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 10:54 am

    “The Great Patriotic War” was a war with no quarter asked or given.
    The losses and suffering of the Soviet dwarfed that of any other nation on the allied side.
    My father, a WWII veteran had no doubt about where the war was won. Clue… don’t look to Hollywood.

    For Xmas I got a DVD called The Untold History Of The United States by Oliver Stone. It only covers the post WWI period and doesn’t paint a particularly glowing view of any of the POTUS’s.
    It does point out that Russia did all the heavy lifting during WWII. What was interesting was the pointing out that Truman had no need to authorise the dropping of atomic bombs on Japan, and what REALLY caused Japan to surrender was not the bombs, but Russia joining in the war against them. Russia began its campaign on Japan on the same day that Hiroshima was obliterated.
    I haven’t finished watching all of it yet, however it’s becoming clear that the greatest threat to world peace and democracy is not Fascism, Communism or even terrorism. It’s American foreign policy.

    The US waged a brilliant naval war in the Pacific and certainly did the heavy lifting against the Japanese.
    The entry of the Russians into the war against Japan was certainly one of the factors influencing the US, but I believe that they genuinely feared the losses they would incur if they invaded the Japanese mainland and wanted to avoid that.
    We will probably never know the truth of the relative weight of factors behind the decision to use atomic weapons.
    Putin may not be a particularly noble human being, but I see no reason for the decades of western hostility toward the USSR/Russia once Stalin was gone.

  27. bemused

    I see no reason for the decades of western hostility toward the USSR/Russia once Stalin was gone.

    The repression of the satellite states.

  28. bemused @ #1689 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 11:45 am

    Putin may not be a particularly noble human being, but I see no reason for the decades of western hostility toward the USSR/Russia once Stalin was gone.

    There was probably no need for hostility towards Stalin either. He was a dictator towards the Soviet people to be sure, but there’s no evidence* he wanted world domination. The building of the Iron Curtain wasn’t so much of a power grab as a reaction to the creation of NATO and American expansionism in Europe. What Stalin was most afraid of was the re-armament of Germany. He wanted a secure buffer zone between Russia and Germany. There is apparently a Russian saying that goes, “Give a German a gun and the first thing he’ll do is point it at Russia”.

    * The “evidence” that Stalin did want world domination comes from the CIA, the Pentagon and other outlets of American exceptionalism and manifest destiny, including Hollywood. As you said in your initial post, don’t look to Hollywood for the truth about world affairs.

    Anyway, whatever the actual truth is, I maintain my opinion on what the greatest threat to world peace is.

  29. Bemused @11:45AM

    Rivalry of would-be world-ruling Empires, overlaid with rival ideologies.

    Maybe like Rome vs Cartage, the British vs Spain then France

  30. ctar1 @ #1691 Monday, December 26, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    bemused

    I see no reason for the decades of western hostility toward the USSR/Russia once Stalin was gone.

    The repression of the satellite states.

    A bargain made with Stalin. He kept his side and allowed pro-western quasi collaborators to take control on places like Greece and Italy which would otherwise have seen communist governments.
    And were it not for western hostility and nuclear threats, would the cold war have been as bad as it was?

  31. Good morning all,

    Happy Boxing Day to all.

    Just dropped in to offer my two bobs worth re the use of atomic weapons on Japan.

    My views are based on limited reading and watching and listening to numerous docs over the years and thus are the views of a amateur.

    There was no need to drop the first bomb and from a strategic perspective was a huge case of ” overkill” ( forgive the term ).

    The second bomb was a clear case of a war crime and forever may America hang its head in shame. Every time I hear the yanks argue for restrictions being placed on the development of nuclear capacity by other countries the word Hypocrite floats into my mind. However, it is a general rule that war criminals are only ever found on the defeated side in any military conflict.

    The dropping of the boys served no strategic or military purpose as noted above but were in fact used as a show of strength against Russia as the yanks were very concerned about the power Russia would hold in Europe especially after the war.

    As I said my observations are based on limited study and insight but just thought I would throw them in.

    Anyway, have a great few days one and all and see you again next year.

    Cheers.

  32. I have just spent a little time going through the comments section in The GG from the article linked earlier. What all these rusted on Libs fail to realize is the Turnbull problem was brought about by the political LNP geniuses that put him there as their leader in the first place. The next problem will be selecting from these same political geniuses who is going to replace him. Dutton? Lets hope!
    To say nothing about the political smarts of the Australian electorate who seem to be on par with our American friends.
    What gets me is the % of pensioners who think the libs are their best chance of them living in utopia for ever after.
    Politics as a High school subject?

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