Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 36
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  1. Morning all (remaining bludgers). The perception of the ER sample on the year matches my own. A DD election was called with one of the longest campaigns on record, yet no new policies, and not even discussion of the bill that allegedly justified the DD. Meanwhile the economy goes backwards on current fiscal settings, which the Treasurer refuses to change.

    With a lack of progress on the economic front, several social issues with widespread popular support cannot advance either, because of a large number of extreme right wing religious conservatives filling the ranks of both major parties. They prefer promoting their own religion to the national interest.

    And will the system change? No. The glaring weaknesses in federal parliament remain. George Brandis proves you can mislead parliament as AG and not have to resign. There is no disclosure of corporate donations till too late, no binding rules on conflicts of interest and no corruption watchdog. No, not a great year in politics.

  3. If the Bernardi as the New Menzies rumours are correct, it’s worth noting that Senators more truly reflect the ideologies and attitudes of a particular party, as (at least for the majors) they are appointed by the party ‘machine’ with no input from members.

    So regardless of whether Bernardi puts a gun to his head and threatens to shoot stupid – or points the gun at Malcolm and threatens to shoot stupid – the apparent extremism of the Lib Senators points to the problems within the party – these are the people they regard as their policy wonks, the true voice of the organisation.

  4. From last thread …

    Energy transformation – the transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewables will accelerate, primarily driven by the lower costs of solar pv, wind and batteries, but also helped along by policy responses to climate change.
    Climate change – we have the technologies to eliminate emissions, and the “too costly” argument will no longer be available to big capital as an excuse to delay transition. People are seeing through the lies promulgated by the fossil fuel industry, but we can’t leave the policy response to the status quo . We will have more talk of going “carbon negative”. Firstly achieving zero net emissions, and then strategies to start removing excess carbon from the atmosphere.

    Hey, this looks like a fun game! Here’s my entry:

    A cure for cancer will be discovered, world peace will be declared, humans will colonize Mars, Rupert Murdoch will donate all his money to a UN-sponsored program to fight illiteracy, and the Greens will sweep into government by universal acclaim in every state and country on the planet.

    What’s the prize?

  5. The survey tells us that things began to go pear-shaped after the election of Kevin Rudd in 2007. Every prime minister since has scored less than five out of 10 on popularity.

    If there was a single moment when faith gave way to disillusionment, it was when Rudd walked away from his response to climate change and dubbed it the greatest moral challenge of our time.

    The failure of leaders to meet the expectations of those who supported them has been a feature of politics ever since, along with disapproval of ever increasing doses of hyperbole, negativity and sloganeering.

    Everyone I speak to agrees that 2016 has been a rotten year, at the personal as well as the political level, with the election of Trump the climax (or should that be the nadir?).

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-an-unhappy-australia-is-all-our-own-doing-20161220-gtf5e9.html

  6. Morning bludgers

    Zoomster

    Last night I posted some twitter comments from someone watching Credlin on Sky channel. Credlin is apparently suggesting there will be a split in February, and Bernardi is courting lower house MPs.

  9. Hey, this looks like a fun game! Here’s my entry:
    A cure for cancer will be discovered, world peace will be declared, humans will colonize Mars, Rupert Murdoch will donate all his money to a UN-sponsored program to fight illiteracy, and the Greens will sweep into government by universal acclaim in every state and country on the planet.

    What’s the prize?

    Credlin is apparently suggesting there will be a split in February, and Bernardi is courting lower house MPs.
    You’ve guessed it. The prize? An invitation to the wedding.
    Get your entries in. 😎

  10. You gotta laugh

    James Ashby, is being accused of “intimidating” One Nation candidates into using two signage business controlled by him in order to make a profit.

    The accusations, from former One Nation treasurer Ian Nelson, claim Mr Ashby improperly profited by using his influence as Senator Hanson’s key adviser to direct business to the Sunshine Coast businesses, Coastal Signs & Printing and Black Bull.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/knives-out-for-hanson-staffer-ashby-accused-of-profiting-off-candidates-20161220-gtepe4?&utm_source=social&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:fac-14omn0053-optim-nnn:nonpaid-25062014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook#ixzz4TPkhYqQt
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  11. Rossmore
    True, William has been a highlight of 2016. Accurate, impartial and engagingly written. Thanks William. Also Australian psephologists should be congratulated for being much more accurate than their US cousins.

  12. Victoria
    That is interesting, and something I have sensed was in the air for a while.

    Now Bernadi is an extreme right winger but he IS NOT stupid, nor does he seem personally corrupt. He may evolve into the less fruit cakey extreme RW party replacing PHON and probably the Nationals. we live in interesting times.

  13. Here are the tweets……..

    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    .@FightingTories Credlin says it’s Senators who are breaking away. I think it’s blackmail…put Bernardi in Ministry or else grenade thrown

    Bridget O’Flynn
    9h9 hours ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    .@ChrisMac1270 Yep. Credlin’s speaking with knowledge. At this stage all senators, led by Bernardi, but they’re talking to lower house MPs.

    Bridget O’Flynn
    9h9 hours ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Credlin: 2/2 ….growing expectation, level of certainty, there’ll be a split in Feb. There’ll be the creation of an Aust Conservative Party

    Bridget O’Flynn
    9h9 hours ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Credlin: Some ppl think it’s a foregone conclusion they’re going to lose & are withdrawing their effort. Calls I made today…there’s a
    1/2

  14. Victoria

    He’s trouble. Another proof that Pauline has no judgement and we should fear the fact that she can, on occasion, hold the balance in the Senate (and usually votes with the Coal.

  15. Has anyone a handle on which lower house MPs Bernadi is courting?

    Is Abbott one of them?
    I assume George Christiansen
    What about Dutton and the rest of the Monkey Pods?

  16. Predictions for 2017
    1. Di Natale announces plan for an au pair-led economic recovery.
    2. Shorten delivers a funny zinger.
    3. A lucky derro gets Turnbull’s leather jacket at Vinnie’s.
    4. Hanson’s rump shrinks some more.
    5. Dutton drowns in a freak boating accident.
    6. Pyne fixes himself, to the accompaniment of some horrible squeals.
    7. Ley, triaged as not a priority, spends seven hours on a Saturday night on a hospital emergency waiting room floor.
    8. Morrison goes insane after failing to work out elebenty times elebenty.
    9. Abbott enters a seminary. Announces he is going for Pope.

  17. I do not have skye so cannot get a handle on it but does Credlin seem like she is siding with Bernadi?

    Could Credlin herself be nominated as a candidate/leader?

  19. My thought for the day, brought into more prominence by its constant use by ScoMo.

    “Going forward” is a completely unnecessary phrase and can always be scratched from a sentence.

  21. socrates @ #11 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 8:05 am

    Rossmore
    True, William has been a highlight of 2016. Accurate, impartial and engagingly written. Thanks William. Also Australian psephologists should be congratulated for being much more accurate than their US cousins.

    With all due respect to William, you could also argue the case that Australian voters are just more compliant when told what to do by their psephologists : )

  25. I don’t expect #libsplit to happen, but by jingos I’ll roflmao.

    In reality I think it’s just another battle in the ongoing war for Malcolm’s Jewels. Each loonfaction plans a terrorist act and threatens MAD if their demands aren’t met. Barnyard’s Loons, and Corgi’s Loons are just two of the largest Judean People’s Fronts battling for temporary control of Turnbull’s Testes. Abbott’s Loons are also in the mix as a minor but potent suicide squad and Christensen’s Loons are a subfaction that seem to waver between the Barnyards and the Corgis. About the only Loons not fighting for the PM’s Balls are the Member for Wentworth and whatever friends he might still retain.

    Very possibly why the promised reshuffle hasn’t turned up. It’s one thing for Turnbull to have perhaps found satisfactory sinecures for the dopes he wants to punt in the Senate. It’s another thing altogether to keep the Senator’s he can’t punt but who want more lollies on side. For what shall it profit a Mal if he gains the whole loonpond just to lose an insufferable arsehole as AG?

  28. The New South Wales division of the Liberal Party has been denied access to $4.4 million in public campaign funding after the state’s electoral commission found it breached electoral laws in its 2011 victory.

    The NSW Electoral Commission ruled that it will not hand over the funding because the Liberal Party’s NSW division refused to disclose donors who helped bankroll its 2011 campaign via donations to the Free Enterprise Foundation.

    In its ruling the commission concluded the Free Enterprise Foundation was used by senior Liberal officials as a means of offering anonymity to donors including property developers, who are banned from making political donations to NSW campaigns.

    “In truth, the foundation had been used by senior officials of the party and an employed party fundraiser to channel and disguise donations by major political donors, some of whom were prohibited donors,” the ruling read.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-24/nsw-liberal-party-disguised-political-donations-free-enterprise/7272446

  29. The prize should be a supersonic 22nd century troll-bot identifier chip which can just sit next to a PBer’s device and automatically send 100 troll replies to any troll-bot who has banged on endlessly about the Census during 2016, or who banged on endlessly last Sunday night posting pro-fossil crappo, for every 1 troll post they contribute from this day forward.

  30. John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950 · 3h3 hours ago

    OMFG. Murdoch’s #fakenews @heraldsun tries to compare idiot #scomo to the great Paul Keating. Pure fantasy.#auspol

  31. Ratsak

    Do not make the mistake of treating Bernadi like a crazed PHON. He has been carefully planning his new party for a long time and calculating when is best to make a move.

    He is a RW ideologue. The issue is really how many in the current LNP would go with him? He is of course very powerful just now, because just one or two MPs shifting would force a coalition with a third party. I suspect also that many Nationals would join him.

  32. It seems we really are entering the silly season … Bernardi has delusions of grandeur and thinks he’ll have enough power that a “conservative” conservative party might have muscle?

    What? Will the Coalition be a hodge-podge of 3 or more individual parties? Imagine the internal horse-trading then!

    Or is this perhaps a ploy to seduce back ON voters?

    Whatever happens, they’re in for a bumpy ride (and we’re in for an entertaining one) 🙂

  36. lizzie @ #30 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 8:32 am

    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950 · 3h3 hours ago
    OMFG. Murdoch’s #fakenews @heraldsun tries to compare idiot #scomo to the great Paul Keating. Pure fantasy.#auspol

    victoria
    #23 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 8:18 am

    dtt

    No idea what is going on. I havent been listening or watching any programs at present
    In the light of the above comparing the unforgettable whatsisname with Paul Keating you should perhaps maintain your distance from “news”programs.
    Research into times table elebenty times elembenty could be a profitable endeavour.
    🙂

  37. No question Vic. But what leverage does Turnbull have not just on Brandis but on any loon senators he overlooks for promotion? He’s screwed. The three names mentioned are all on the less crazy side of the pond. The crazies won’t accept all three are replaced by “moderates” (sic). The likes of Bernardi and Abetz etc will all be looking for a pound of flesh. That’s why I reckon the reshuffle ain’t gonna happen. It causes more pain than it salves. If he does try it the losers could seriously go off piste.

  38. Thanks BK

    BK
    December 21, 2016 at 6:45 AM
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Another big compilation for today.

    Matthew Knott brings us us ten charts to illustrate how Brexit and Trump could happen here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sick-of-politics-ten-charts-that-show-why-donald-trump-and-brexit-could-happen-in-australia-20161220-gtetbd.html
    Ross Gittins tells us why he’s sorry there wasn’t a credit rating drop this week. Ross does not have a high opinion of the ratings agencies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-im-sorry-our-credit-rating-wasnt-downgraded-this-week-20161219-gtemc6.html
    Treasurer Scott Morrison continues to make the case for company tax cuts despite a torrent of criticism from Labor, which says the government would be better off curbing property tax breaks to repair the budget. Google.
    /news/policy/budget/shadow-treasurer-chris-bowen-calls-for-changes-to-negative-gearing-20161220-gteq6s
    Here’s Paul Bongiorno’s take on MYEFO and Morrison’s bleating.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/12/19/myefo-scott-morrison-senate-partners/
    Michael Gordon says that Australia’s unhappiness is all of our own doing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-an-unhappy-australia-is-all-our-own-doing-20161220-gtf5e9.html
    James Massola reckons Morrison’s call for support of his trickle down cut to company tax will not convince cross bench senators.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/midyear-budget-update-nick-xenophon-unconvinced-company-tax-cuts-are-the-way-to-go-20161220-gtex9r.html
    The Berlin Market attackers may still be on the run. And I just heard on ABC24 that IS has claimed responsibility.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/berlin-attack-suspect-is-a-pakistani-migrant-reports-20161220-gtfd36.html
    Has any RWNJ blamed renewables for this fiasco?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/power-failure-leaves-commuters-stranded-at-wynyard-town-hall-train-stations-20161220-gtfbb2.html
    I couldn’t agree more with this article on car parking in shopping centres. Google.
    /news/opinion/christmas-shopping-carparks-become-war-zones/news-story/ec66863f868a81c3b67178766d1a739b
    Huge smog problems in China.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-on-second-red-alert-as-smog-smothers-cities-stops-flights-closes-roads-20161220-gteuz4.html
    What’s happening between Steve Smith and Nathan Lyon?
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/australia-v-pakistan-nathan-lyon-steve-smith-onfield-dynamic-questioned-again-20161220-gtew7e.html

    Reply

  39. CTar1 and PL

    Thanks.
    This confirms my reluctance to subscribe to Crikey.
    Also, last night when I clicked on Crikey on my mobile, I got the scam message that my device was corrupted because I had been looking at four porn sites. Ha bloody ha!

  40. BK
    December 21, 2016 at 6:46 AM
    Section 2 . . .

    Adele Ferguson shows us that every month a new whistleblower wants to come forward to report misconduct but then decides not to.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/every-month-a-whistleblower-wants-to-report-misconduct-20161220-gtf95e.html
    The government has a big task ahead to fund its needs through the sale of bonds.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/aofm-needs-to-sell-50bn-of-bonds-to-meet-its-201617-target-20161219-gtenow.html
    Pauline Hanson’s right-hand man, James Ashby, is being accused of “intimidating” One Nation candidates into using two signage business controlled by him in order to make a profit. Google.
    /news/knives-out-for-hanson-staffer-ashby-accused-of-profiting-off-candidates-20161220-gtepe4
    Jess Irvine goes to the truth behind the official jobless figures.
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/the-truth-behind-the-official-jobless-figures-20161215-gtcfi8.html
    The outsourcing of the collection of outstanding taxation debts has not necessarily achieved desirable outcomes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/small-business-tax-debts-to-be-revealed-to-credit-agencies-20161220-gtez65.html
    A scathing new Australian National Audit Office report has revealed that the taxpayer handed more than $5 billion to vocational colleges between 2013 and 2015 under the VET FEE-HELP scheme. About $2.2 billion will never be repaid.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vocational-education-a-debacle-waiting-to-happen-20161220-gtexyf.html
    Some adverse findings for some senior NSW police officers.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/20/catherine-burn-breached-rule-in-nsw-police-bugging-operation-ombudsman-finds
    Culleton’s Federal Court hearing took the cake for weirdness. And he’s back in court today on another matter. The article lists many classic quotes. Stand by to be further amused.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/like-an-unpredictable-and-comical-courtroom-drama-wa-senators-bizarre-hearing-20161220-gtetmz.html
    The AFR says that Morrison’s soft line on surplus won’t satisfy the ratings agencies. Google.
    /news/policy/budget/scott-morrison-denies-he-has-guaranteed-a-2021-budget-target-20161219-gtemj7
    John Quiggin asks that if the Productivity commission puts ideology ahead of evidence do we still need it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/20/if-the-productivity-commission-puts-ideology-ahead-of-evidence-do-we-still-need-it
    The Australian economy is in a bit of trouble. Just like the Turnbull government, writes Ian McAuley.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/12/21/myefo-rest-in-peace-malcolm-turnbulls-jobs-and-growth-mantra/
    Here is the second article on the Senate report into our medical complaints process.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/senate-report-on-medical-complaints-process-its-not-over-yet-part2,9856

    Reply

  41. psyclaw @ #29 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 8:31 am

    … posting pro-fossil crappo …

    Errr. If you had bothered to follow the thread, I was the one actually proposing a tax on grid-based electricity and fossil fuel emissions, while others on here were saying we don’t need one – that solar PV alone is enough to save the planet.

    Except it turned out that the scenario they thought was going to bring that about required that such a carbon tax was implemented back in 2010. That went well, didn’t it?

    But don’t let facts get in the way. I’ll be out for most of today again, so you can knock yourself out posting more magical thinking, and labeling anyone who disagrees with you as a “troll”.

  42. BK
    December 21, 2016 at 6:46 AM
    Section 3 . . .

    The copyright problem continues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/intellectual-property-copyright-rules-make-us-break-the-law-80-times-a-day-says-productivity-commission-20161220-gtf6i0.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-productivity-commissions-copyright-changes-would-decimate-australias-creative-industries-20161220-gtevie.html
    If this were to be proposed by Labor it would instantly be decried by the Coalition as a “great big new tax”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-fuel-crackdown-could-save-motorists-519-a-year-but-increase-cost-of-new-vehicles-20161220-gtf7db.html
    More gouging by Apple?
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/apple-reveals-cost-of-replacing-or-fixing-its-airpods-20161220-gtes0l.html
    The Channel Seven CEO denies suffering from dick disease. Kate McClymont.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/seven-west-media-boss-tim-worner-accused-of-using-company-funds-to-pursue-affair-with-amber-harrison-20161220-gtevwh.html
    The Star Casino has dipped heavily into the euphemism dictionary in it reporting of incidents.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/star-casino-assaultreporting-system-opaque-but-not-dishonest-gaming-regulator-finds-20161220-gtesfn.html
    Australia’s move to limit codeine products to prescription only has sparked concerns about added medical costs, and been criticised for failing to deal with barriers to addiction and pain treatment. We haven’t heard the last of this story.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/codeine-crackdown-concerns-change-fails-to-consider-pain-treatment-and-addiction-20161220-gtewlg.html
    A Melbourne doctor who has given scores of sick people a lethal drug has won a fight against the medical board, with a tribunal ruling his practise is consistent with other forms of palliative care. This is a significant decision. It gives recognition of a practice that has been used for ever by doctors – the “double effect” doctrine.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/doctor-who-prescribes-lethal-drugs-to-dying-patients-not-risk-to-public-20161220-gtf2q3.html
    John Passant on ICA, Obeid and the criminality that is Australian politics.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/icac-obeid-and-the-criminality-that-is-australian-politics,9860
    Students with disabilities could miss out on hundreds of millions of dollars in extra funding because of serious concerns about the reliability of a landmark national audit into the number of school children with special needs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australias-disabled-children-at-risk-of-being-denied-promised-funding-after-counting-stuffup-20161220-gtf6b8.html

  45. player one @ #4 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 7:47 am

    Hey, this looks like a fun game! Here’s my entry:
    A cure for cancer will be discovered, world peace will be declared, humans will colonize Mars, Rupert Murdoch will donate all his money to a UN-sponsored program to fight illiteracy, and the Greens will sweep into government by universal acclaim in every state and country on the planet.
    What’s the prize?

    When your arguments get shot down in flames is farce all you have?

  46. Player 1

    Having not mentioned any names in my post, I note that you saw that the cap fits you, and put it on your own head.

    10/10 for insight on this occasion.

  49. Good morning all,

    I would like to take this opportunity to thank William for providing a haven where I can ” mingle” with like minded political tragics and some not so like minded political tragics. While not agreeing with all and being constantly frustrated by some it is all part of a free flowing, a information providing and very enjoyable ” blinder” of a blog. So, thanks to one and all.

    The different views, backgrounds and resulting insights are a highlight of my day and I really would go insane without PB.

    Merry Christmas to all and a peaceful, healthy and positive 2017.

    Cheers and a good holiday to all.

  50. The proposition by Socrates that the place of conservative religious members is the same in Labor and Liberal is false.

    It is completely erroneous.

    They may be impeding social reform policy in the LNP. They play no such role in Labor.

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