Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. briefly @ #50 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 10:08 am

    The proposition by Socrates that the place of conservative religious members is the same in Labor and Liberal is false.
    It is completely erroneous.
    They may be impeding social reform policy in the LNP. They play no such role in Labor.

    I suspect Socrates is influenced by exposure to the SDA in South Australia where it appears to be uniquely toxic.

  3. Shots fired at CFMEU building on Swanston Street in Carlton

    Shots have been fired into the CFMEU headquarters in Swanston Street in Carlton.

    Windows at the front of the building were shattered after about five shots were fired about 3am on Wednesday.

    Nobody was injured in the incident.

    Melbourne Crime Investigation Unit Detective Sergeant Haydn Beale said an unidentified man got out of a car and fired several shots into the building.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/shots-fired-at-cfmeu-building-on-swanston-street-in-carlton-20161220-gtffl3.html

    And the suspects are?

  4. Andrews government admits new South Yarra station may be needed after Melbourne Metro is built

    A new railway station at South Yarra will not be built as part of the Melbourne Metro rail tunnel – but the Andrews government has conceded it may be needed in the future, after months of arguing it was not necessary.

    Construction of the $11 billion rail tunnel will create major traffic disruption while it is being built and will hurt existing businesses during its nine-year construction phase.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrews-government-admits-new-south-yarra-station-may-be-needed-after-melbourne-metro-is-built-20161220-gtfh09.html

    I am curious to know Socrates thoughts on this but it seems to me the State Govt is making a mistake in not building a South Yarra station so that passengers can switch between lines. Surely it adds greatly to the system as a whole to have as many interchange points as possible?

  5. DTT @8:05 AM: “Now Bernadi is an extreme right winger but he IS NOT stupid, nor does he seem personally corrupt. He may evolve into the less fruit cakey extreme RW party replacing PHON and probably the Nationals. we live in interesting times.”

    My thoughts too. Bernardi is on the far right, but he comes across as calm and sensible, as distinct from some of the wackier, more ‘colourful’ figures who occupy a similar political space. That’s what makes him dangerous. He would have the support of much of the Liberal base, most of the right wing media megaphones and a large chunk of the Parliamentary Liberals. Maybe he can get the Nationals on board, Familiy First and some of the saner elements of One Nation and other far right groups.

    We shall see. I think it most likely that the Liberals would just shift further to the right to accomate his supporters, as Howard did with One Nation, but maybe (hopefully) the Liberals will split. It will be interesting to see.

  8. Steve777
    Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 10:27 am
    DTT @8:05 AM: “Now Bernadi is an extreme right winger but he IS NOT stupid, nor does he seem personally corrupt. He may evolve into the less fruit cakey extreme RW party replacing PHON and probably the Nationals. we live in interesting times.”

    My thoughts too. Bernardi is on the far right, but he comes across as calm and sensible, as distinct from some of the wackier, more ‘colourful’ figures who occupy a similar political space. That’s what makes him dangerous. He would have the support of much of the Liberal base, most of the right wing media megaphones and a large chunk of the Parliamentary Liberals. Maybe he can get the Nationals on board, Familiy First and some of the saner elements of One Nation and other far right groups.

    I don’t see Bernardi trying to court members of PHON, Culleton, and the rest of the relatively unstable RWNJ groups. For one thing they seem not to claim “Christian” values and for another they seem to be wracked with internal dissent. On the other hand, Bernardi already has a working relationship with FF (using their facilities in Adelaide) and they share his “Christian” values. Bernardi could certainly go after members of the Nationals, like Christensen, who seem to share his outlook on politics.

    In the main, I think Bernardi would mostly pick up support outside the big cities and perhaps on the urban fringes where a lot of the happy clappers seem to be located. Were Bernardi to actually create his Conservative Party, the biggest losers would probably be the Nationals. FF would probably be happy to align with Bernardi and the Hansonites would still appeal to the atheists who nevertheless hate the “establishment” and are fearful of Muslims.

    Whatever transpires, it’s not a pleasant prospect for Turnbull.

  10. Bemused – thank you.

    Barney – when I say that Bernardi comes across as ‘sensible’, it does not mean that I think what he says is ‘sensible’ or that I agree with him. Bernardi is ‘sensible’ to those who share his values and would be lauded by like-minded people, for example the radio 2GB audiencee (right wing Sydney talk radio) and much of the readership of Murdoch rags. And it is a matter of values rather than ‘sense’ or intelligence.

  11. Bernardi may be smart and come across ‘well’ but surely intelligence involves a degree of open minded -ness? So clever – in the sense of tricky – maybe.

  12. steve777 @ #60 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:02 am

    Bemused – thank you.
    Barney – when I say that Bernardi comes across as ‘sensible’, it does not mean that I think what he says is ‘sensible’ or that I agree with him. Bernardi is ‘sensible’ to those who share his values and would be lauded by like-minded people, for example the radio 2GB audiencee (right wing Sydney talk radio) and much of the readership of Murdoch rags. And it is a matter of values rather than ‘sense’ or intelligence.

    Yep! It’s like a certain type of person liking the way Trump came across.

  13. Bernardi is ‘sensible’ to those who share his values and would be lauded by like-minded people,

    Absolutely. the Climate Denialist / Bolt is wunderfull crew who consider Malcolm Roberts is sane and Abbott would have won the last election in a canter will love him. My take is it will split the RW vote, but the Libs will get much (but not quite all) back in preferences. I reckon some of the voters Bernardi will appeal to will just let their vote exhaust in the Senate.

  14. A very tangled web, setup to deceive. Best advice: keep well away, Australia.

    It is an intriguing corporate web that spreads from North Queensland, across Asia to the Caribbean.

    Giant Indian conglomerate Adani, which plans to build one of the world’s largest coal mines in Queensland’s Galilee Basin, has set up a complex network of companies and trusts in Australia which are owned in one of the world’s major tax havens, the Cayman Islands.

    The Adani Group is also attempting to shift ownership of the existing Abbot Point coal port — which it bought for $1.8 billion — to a Singaporean company ultimately owned in the Cayman Islands.

    An exhaustive search of company filings and documents across the globe has cast light on this opaque structure of ownership and control.

    It has alarmed environmental activists and legal experts, who fear it could make it harder to gain compensation from Adani in the event of an environmental disaster from Adani’s planned mine and port expansion on the edge of the Great Barrier Reef.

    “I’ve been a businessman for most of my life, as well as an environmental activist, and the risks are great,” said Geoff Cousins, former Optus CEO and chairman of the George Paterson advertising agency, now a board member of the Australian Conservation Foundation.

    “With these kinds of approvals of big mining operations or port operations, you always get a set of conditions that the Government puts on.

    “But those conditions aren’t worth anything if, when something goes wrong, you try to find the company responsible and either it has no money or if it has money it’s in a tax haven and you can’t reach it.”

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-21/adani-corporate-web-spreads-to-tax-havens/8135700

  16. steve777 @ #60 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:02 am

    Bemused – thank you.
    Barney – when I say that Bernardi comes across as ‘sensible’, it does not mean that I think what he says is ‘sensible’ or that I agree with him. Bernardi is ‘sensible’ to those who share his values and would be lauded by like-minded people, for example the radio 2GB audiencee (right wing Sydney talk radio) and much of the readership of Murdoch rags. And it is a matter of values rather than ‘sense’ or intelligence.

    Using that definition you would say Malcolm Roberts and most RWNJs are sensible.

  17. Giant Indian conglomerate Adani, which plans to build one of the world’s largest coal mines in Queensland’s Galilee Basin, has set up a complex network of companies and trusts in Australia which are owned in one of the world’s major tax havens, the Cayman Islands.

    The Adani Group is also attempting to shift ownership of the existing Abbot Point coal port — which it bought for $1.8 billion — to a Singaporean company ultimately owned in the Cayman Islands.

    This shouldn’t be a problem. Malcolm can always contact Adani via their mutual location of funds in the Cayman Islands.

  19. WA’s GST share will languish below 70¢ in the dollar for at least the next four Budget cycles, The West Australian can reveal.

    The mining investment boom and the cratering of WA’s revenues from royalties were supposed to spur a GST share recovery.

    But the latest WA Treasury modelling — to be revealed in tomorrow’s mid-year Budget review — shows that hopes WA’s share would rebound to 76¢ in the dollar by 2019-20 are set to be dashed.

    The revelation casts a big shadow over Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s GST rescue plan, which involves putting in a floor level below which no State’s share can fall.
    While the PM did not commit to the exact level of a floor, or the timing of its introduction, senior Liberal minister Christian Porter has said it would be logical to impose it once WA’s share rebounded above 70¢ in the dollar.

    But that will not happen for the foreseeable future, if WA Treasury’s modelling holds true.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/was-gst-disparity-to-remain-ng-b88334212z

    Turnbull just can’t take a trick. Everything he puts his hands on turns to shite.

  21. barney in saigon @ #66 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:18 am

    steve777 @ #60 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:02 am

    Bemused – thank you.
    Barney – when I say that Bernardi comes across as ‘sensible’, it does not mean that I think what he says is ‘sensible’ or that I agree with him. Bernardi is ‘sensible’ to those who share his values and would be lauded by like-minded people, for example the radio 2GB audiencee (right wing Sydney talk radio) and much of the readership of Murdoch rags. And it is a matter of values rather than ‘sense’ or intelligence.

    Using that definition you would say Malcolm Roberts and most RWNJs are sensible.

    They seem that way to their supporters and those susceptible to their message.
    Do not confuse this with objective standards of rationality.

  23. This is baaaad news.

    Last week, Hack spoke to students who say they have reported their income correctly to Centrelink but are now being accused of welfare fraud.

    It’s the result of a brand new system that matches the income you declared to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) with the income you declared to Centrelink. It’s able to go as far back as 2010. When it detects a disparity, it automatically generates and dispatches a letter. For the Government, it’s all about clawing back billions of dollars believed to have been incorrectly paid to welfare recipients.

    The number of letters sent since the new system was implemented around six months ago has skyrocketed: from 20,000 claims per year to 20,000 claims per week.

    Hank Jongen, the general manager of the Department of Human Services which runs Centrelink, says the system is not designed to accuse people of rorting.
    …
    “I am a lawyer. Being essentially accused of welfare fraud does not sit well with me,” he wrote in a letter sent to Hank Jongen and provided to Hack.

    “When I was on Youth Allowance in 2013-14, I reported correctly every single time. Why am I being sent a request for payment of a debt? I do not owe a debt. Centrelink has not proven that I owe a debt. This is essentially an audit, except instead of asking me for information Centrelink has simply asked for money.There is no valid basis for this claim.

    “Annual income, as reported by the ATO, is plainly not indicative of fortnightly income (which is what I was required to report). Most students work casually and their annual income is not paid regularly. This was the case for me. Some weeks I earned a lot, others I earned a little. I reported this accordingly!”

    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/centrelink-boss-offers-personal-email/8136138

  24. A virtual reality game is helping people with dementia and leading to a drastic reduction in medication needed for some patients.

    The “Virtual Forest” allows users to sit in front of a screen and use simple hand movements to cause changes in the landscape shown in the game.

    It does not require headsets or hand controls and the scenery includes elements such as butterflies fluttering through flowers, a rowboat floating around a pond or a family of ducks splashing about in the water.

    Dr Tanya Petrovich, a tech developer with Alzheimer’s Australia, said early findings showed the virtual reality experience made significant changes to the quality of life of many users.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-21/virtual-reality-game-helps-people-with-dementia/8137616

  25. bemused @ #71 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:26 am

    barney in saigon @ #66 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:18 am

    steve777 @ #60 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:02 am

    Bemused – thank you.
    Barney – when I say that Bernardi comes across as ‘sensible’, it does not mean that I think what he says is ‘sensible’ or that I agree with him. Bernardi is ‘sensible’ to those who share his values and would be lauded by like-minded people, for example the radio 2GB audiencee (right wing Sydney talk radio) and much of the readership of Murdoch rags. And it is a matter of values rather than ‘sense’ or intelligence.

    Using that definition you would say Malcolm Roberts and most RWNJs are sensible.

    They seem that way to their supporters and those susceptible to their message.
    Do not confuse this with objective standards of rationality.

    I’m not, it’s more a frustration of the failure, so far, of the left to to blow away their “arguments” and the general unwillingness of most of the media to expose their bullshit and instead give it the air to grow.

  26. An interesting suggestion in the lead-up to the WA election.

    Even though Culleton is no longer in the party on whose ticket and policies he was elected, he retains his seat in the Senate as an independent.

    However, if Culleton is to be replaced as a result of the legal actions encircling him, some interesting options may arise depending on the circumstances of his dismissal.
    It is unclear whether his position is to be filled as a casual vacancy or by a declared re-count.

    Under section 15 of the Australian Constitution, it is the role of the State Parliament to appoint someone from the same party to fill a casual vacancy. The Senate returns for the autumn sittings on February 7.

    But if the WA Parliament is not sitting — and that won’t happen again until well after March 11 — the State Government advises the Governor who to appoint.

    So the WA Liberal Party could end up in an interesting discussion with Pauline Hanson on who should replace Culleton. Think One Nation preferences.

    https://thewest.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/hanson-strife-will-taint-was-election-ng-b88334980z

  28. Happy Christmas to William and pollbludgers
    Flying to Sydney today to terrorise the family!!
    Was going to post a Christmas git but not sure on policy re same,or even if it would print on crikey
    All have a happy time please

  29. What I find disappointing on a political blog is the incapacity of many here to distinguish between THEIR views and the sanity or rationality of others. It is group think totalitarian central, Agree with me or you must be mad, troll, deluded etc.

    Let us take Bernadi as an example. Now I disagree violently with just about EVERYTHING he believes and stand for. I would be surprised if we even shared 2% of issues we agreed on. I would fight every inch ofn the way to stop his party of religious right having control of government.

    However the fact that I do not agree with his views does NOT mean I think he is stupid or that he is nuts or that he is immoral. He has a right to different views and I have every right to oppose them. This is what we call democracy and free speech.

  30. A Newsweek reporter who has epilepsy said he had a seizure after being sent a message on Twitter intended to trigger such an episode and is seeking information from the social media company to identify the person responsible for the tweet.

    The image in question – which included a strobe effect and the words, “You deserve a seizure for your posts” – was apparently sent in response to Kurt Eichenwald’s outspoken criticism of President-elect Donald Trump. Eichenwald, who has a home in Texas, said in court documents that the image triggered a seizure.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/20/newsweek-kurt-eichenwald-twitter-epilepsy-seizure?CMP=soc_568

  31. Daretotread

    Name-calling obviates the need for logical thought. It is especially popular amongst the more illiterate people on social media. I wouldn’t say the majority of posters follow that habit, however.

  32. He has a right to different views

    Absolutely. That doesn’t mean he is NOT a idiot nutbagger though. And he’s a nasty bastard who is part of the whole Liberal thing of playing on any kind of fear and loathing available to stay in power while fwarking up or ignoring the whole governance thing he’s actually employed to do.

  33. The Andrews government’s youth crime solution is in tatters after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday that jailing children in adult prisons is illegal.

    It now faces a scramble to find alternative accommodation for a group of young people, after Supreme Court Justice Gregory Garde said the children must be removed from Barwon Prison by 4pm on Thursday, and transferred to another remand centre in Victoria.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/supreme-court-declares-detention-of-children-in-adult-jails-illegal-20161220-gtfibg.html

  34. TPOF
    Yes interesting article, although a little confused ie just what is it saying. There are many themes of course.
    Would or could Trump use an epidemic to enforce fascist like controls. Yes he probably would. So would most others but they would think and worry about it first.

    The horrifying reality is that if there really were a deadly and highly contagious epidemic, especially one that is airborne, Quarantine and a very harsh quarantine is the ONLY way to go. Obviously the response depends on the characteristics of the organism – especially survival time outside the host and the incubation period before the disease is infectious. If for example you have a bug that is:
    1 – very short incubation time so it is infectious within say 3 days
    2. Is highly contagious in that just a few organisms can trigger illness OR is present in huge volumes in infected patients such that brief contact will still expose people to large numbers of infectious agents AND it
    3. is airborne such that routine barriers such as gloves and clothes do not work
    4. Can live for say 24 hrs in air conditioning systems orn moist environments
    5. has a very high mortality

    Then you have the worst possible scenario. Total quarantine would be the only hope of preventing rapid spread. Every office, school and shop would need to close. Total curfew with food delivery by the government would be essential.

  35. Centrelink once sent me a letter demanding to know why I hadn’t declared certain income….I pointed out that I hadn’t actually been on benefits at the time!

  36. Simon Banks ‏@SimonBanksHB · 4h4 hours ago

    ALP’s plan to fund schools #Gonski delivers almost 3 times the economic growth at 2/3rds the cost of the LNP’s $50b corporate tax cuts

  38. dtt

    ‘ He has a right to different views and I have every right to oppose them. This is what we call democracy and free speech.’

    He doesn’t have a right to ignore or misrepresent the facts, and no amount of crying ‘free speech’ (which, like all priviledges, carries responsibilities) gives him that.

  39. Lizzie

    Gonski delivers almost 3 times the economic growth at 2/3rds the cost of the LNP’s $50b corporate tax cuts

    I am always sceptical of claims that corporate tax cuts will result in any growth at all if they require taking benefits away from the poor and middle class consumers. Less money in circulation and the exact opposite of a stimulus.
    It would be very interesting to have more detail on the assumptions in the treasury modeling.

  43. No one has the right to have stupidity treated as reason.

    If you believe the world is flat you’re an idiot.

    Of course there are limits to knowledge. We don’t KNOW human activity is driving climate change. But if you can’t acknowledge that it by far the most likely explanation then you’re an idiot.

    There are domains where reasonable and rational debate can occur, and there are domains where it cannot unless you are bringing some pretty excellent new data to the table. And no the dribbling of nutjobs on a website doesn’t qualify as excellent new data.

    Everyone might be entitled to their own opinion, but that doesn’t make opinions that are complete nonsense worth anything more than evidence that those who hold them are idiots.

  44. Regarding Benardi

    He has the right to free speech.

    He has the right to put his different point of view.

    But he does not have the right to fabricate evidence to support his views nor the right to misrepresent the evidence of contra views.

    Having said that, of all the RWNJs he is one of the few who can certainly present himself plausibly and coherently.

    Unlike Cullerton and Roberts who both talk manifest nonsense from the moment they open their mouths, palpable nonsense which pervades their every sentence, Benardi can usually carry on a conversation, speech or interview in a “sensible” manner.

    One has to look a bit deeper to the underlying evidence or assumptions or values or logic to recognise the nonsense components of the views he is putting.

    And looking a bit deeper is beyond the desires and/or capabilities of many punters to do so.

  45. Cullerton’s case is not unclear at all (unless a new precedent is set). If he is found ineligible to run it goes to a recount, if he was eligible to run but disqualified after (eg by bankruptcy) then it is a casual vacancy effectively filled by One Nation (the idea the WA government would defy the explicit right of political parties to designate replacements on a technicality is nuts. Especially for a government facing a very risky election.)

  46. I think its important to distinguish between the dignity of the individual and the rationality of that person’s views. Bernardi is entitled to respect and dignity, even if he is mentally deficient and deluded. I have the same attitude to meat eaters. They are entitled to dignity and respect even if they are barbaric towards other creatures.

  47. psyclaw

    The problem with that line of reasoning is that it assumes that you know the facts and everyone else is wrong. That is just group think talking. MOST scientific and cultural discoveries/advances happen because some “idiot” denied current wisdom.

    There are thousands of examples where current wisdom encourages exactly the wrong sort of practice – just casting my mind about quickly for examples – think treatment of burns, snake bites, lying babies on tummies not side, ulcer treatments.

  48. Bernardi, Dutton and the rest are responding to the ON vote-split. ON is shearing support away from the LNP. If this persists, the effect is likely to be enough to keep the LNP out of office. The problem they have is that every time they appeal to ON-antihero voters, they discredit themselves with Lib-leaning moderates.

    The Right inside the LNP will have to learn to ignore the ON split, in the same way that Labor have had to learn to ignore the Gs. Every time the right try to reach across to the pop-wing, they validate the tactics of the pops. The LNP can only lose by doing this.

    Nevertheless, some in the LNP will figure they can make personal mileage out of this. They should be encouraged in this belief. The more they do to break up the LNP vote, the better as far as I’m concerned. If Bernardi goes through with his plans to create another schism in the SA Lib constituency, they will end up losing even more seats, both to NXT and to Labor. They will be reduced to being little more than a rump in the Federal landscape. This is much to be hoped for.

    The so-called conservatives are in fact not at all conservative, in the sense they wish to bring down and remake the social, cultural, political and economic order.

    This will almost certainly end badly for them.

  49. dtt

    And if Bernardi was presenting a well argued, researched case backed by evidence then your argument would hold merit.

    Coming up with a different theory (as the result of research) which is not accepted by the mainstream is entirely different to deliberately ignoring or distorting other people’s , which is what climate change deniers such as Bernardi do.

  50. DTT

    Would or could Trump use an epidemic to enforce fascist like controls. Yes he probably would. So would most others but they would think and worry about it first.

    I don’t think the article was saying that. I think the article was saying that his response would be to go immediately to this small palette of mechanisms because that is all he thinks of. And his refusal to be briefed on complex matters means that his response could be totally inappropriate or even make things much worse.

    The essence of the article as I saw it is that there is a regular risk of a pandemic disease breaking out and a real risk of a critically serious spread of that disease if experienced and knowledgeable evidence based responses are not developed and implemented by a machinery that has the knowledge and skill base to do so. We don’t have any idea of what Trump would do other than his past conduct – and that is all show and emotion, but no substance and science.

    The problem is not that he would use the threat of a pandemic to introduce dictatorial laws (not fascistic – that is different) it is that his only idea to combat a threatened pandemic would be to use a small set of viscerally driven dictatorial laws that have no logical rationale for dealing with the actual threat of pandemic.

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