Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 36
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  1. zoomster @ #99 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    dtt
    And if Bernardi was presenting a well argued, researched case backed by evidence then your argument would hold merit.
    Coming up with a different theory (as the result of research) which is not accepted by the mainstream is entirely different to deliberately ignoring or distorting other people’s , which is what climate change deniers such as Bernardi do.

    And he manages a veneer of plausibility.
    That does not acknowledge his arguments have any merit.

  2. lizzie @ #73 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:27 am

    This is baaaad news.

    Last week, Hack spoke to students who say they have reported their income correctly to Centrelink but are now being accused of welfare fraud.
    It’s the result of a brand new system that matches the income you declared to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) with the income you declared to Centrelink. It’s able to go as far back as 2010. When it detects a disparity, it automatically generates and dispatches a letter. For the Government, it’s all about clawing back billions of dollars believed to have been incorrectly paid to welfare recipients.

    Certainly is. The government is combining data sets across departments that were supposed to be independent, in a manner that is supposed to be prohibited by the Privacy Act. But then, that’s exactly what the most recent census changes were really all about – the government wants to subvert the intent of the Privacy Act so they can do this legally across all areas of government.

    The trouble is, governments (and their subcontractors) generally get this stuff hopelessly wrong, and ordinary people who did nothing wrong are the ones who pay the penalty.

    lizzie @ #92 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 12:55 pm

    Peter Martin ‏@1petermartin · 18h18 hours ago
    There’s your problem right there. New trove of documents released showing how @ABSStats prepared: https://goo.gl/jDf24A #censusfail pic.twitter.com/bTXzknco3W

    I wonder if anyone can see the link between these two? Interestingly, Crikey gets a mention in the latter …

    Coverage of the 2016 Census name and address retention decision has appeared in Crikey, with a focus on a previous 2005 privacy impact statement related to the ABS 2006 Census Data Enhancement proposal. Media will continue to be monitored for any further coverage or issues associated with the ABS decision.

    It is clear when you read the documentation trail that the ABS deliberately hid their controversial decision to retain names and addresses, and tried to pull a fast one over the public. They then monitored the media and advised their masters that it looks like they got away with it.

    If it wasn’t for sites like Crikey (and I think they are referring here specifically to Bernard Keane, who tipped the rest of us off as to what was about to happen) then we would probably never have known just what the ABS was really trying to accomplish.

  3. Lies and distortion is NOT Free Speech.

    No, they pretty much are. At least until you cross into the realm of defamation, which still allows a wide variety of defenses for making untrue/defamatory statements.

    However, someone being entitled to hold and express an opinion doesn’t mean that they don’t reveal themselves as an idiot, racist, or worse should they choose to adopt and advocate idiotic, racist, and oppressive opinions. The right to free speech doesn’t mean you get to be free from criticism (or even from consequences), or that you can’t be personally judged based upon the quality (or lack thereof) of the ideas you put forward.

  4. Blast – formating fail! Reposting to make it clearer which are lizzie’s comments and which are mine …

    lizzie @ #73 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 11:27 am

    This is baaaad news.

    Last week, Hack spoke to students who say they have reported their income correctly to Centrelink but are now being accused of welfare fraud.

    It’s the result of a brand new system that matches the income you declared to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) with the income you declared to Centrelink. It’s able to go as far back as 2010. When it detects a disparity, it automatically generates and dispatches a letter. For the Government, it’s all about clawing back billions of dollars believed to have been incorrectly paid to welfare recipients.

    Certainly is. The government is combining data sets across departments that were supposed to be independent, in a manner that is supposed to be prohibited by the Privacy Act. But then, that’s exactly what the most recent census changes were really all about – the government wants to subvert the intent of the Privacy Act so they can do this legally across all areas of government.

    The trouble is, governments (and their subcontractors) generally get this stuff hopelessly wrong, and ordinary people who did nothing wrong are the ones who pay the penalty.

    lizzie @ #92 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 12:55 pm

    Peter Martin ‏@1petermartin · 18h18 hours ago
    There’s your problem right there. New trove of documents released showing how @ABSStats prepared: https://goo.gl/jDf24A #censusfail pic.twitter.com/bTXzknco3W

    I wonder if anyone can see the link between these two? Interestingly, Crikey gets a mention in the latter …

    “Coverage of the 2016 Census name and address retention decision has appeared in Crikey, with a focus on a previous 2005 privacy impact statement related to the ABS 2006 Census Data Enhancement proposal. Media will continue to be monitored for any further coverage or issues associated with the ABS decision. ”

    It is clear when you read the documentation trail that the ABS deliberately hid their controversial decision to retain names and addresses, and tried to pull a fast one over the public. They then monitored the media and advised their masters that it looks like they got away with it.

    If it wasn’t for sites like Crikey (and I think they are referring here specifically to Bernard Keane, who tipped the rest of us off as to what was about to happen) then we would probably never have known just what the ABS was really trying to accomplish.

  5. No, they pretty much are. At least until you cross into the realm of defamation, which still allows a wide variety of defenses for making untrue/defamatory statements.

    What I should of added was, for someone in a position of great influence to the general populace, LIES and Distortion are not free speech.. – well yes, I take your point AR, but our Murdoch owned media do so bad of an intentional? job of calling the bullshit out, there’s got to be a line/distinction drawn somewhere… or at least the perpetrator held to account.. in an alternate universe perhaps?

  6. “The Next Four Years,” Australian Edition:

    One Nation’s Shan Ju Lin defends Pauline Hanson, says she fears Chinese Government will ‘take over’

    Shan Ju Lin said she believed she and the party would get the votes of “Good Asians” in the Queensland election, slated for 2018, as they too feared the rising influence of the Chinese Government in Australia.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-21/one-nation-candidate-shan-ju-lin-defends-pauline-hanson/8135684?sf47591118=1

  7. as they too feared the rising influence of the Chinese Government in Australia.

    The irony, of course, is that this is an entirely legitimate concern – as far as being suspicious of the Chinese Government goes – at the moment, although one that needs to be kept in a global context of rampant ugliness all across the world.

    But, hasn’t she gotten the memo? “Swamped by Asians” was so 20 years ago, it’s all about the Muslims now according to dear leader …

  8. millennial @ #106 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 2:58 pm

    “The Next Four Years,” Australian Edition:

    One Nation’s Shan Ju Lin defends Pauline Hanson, says she fears Chinese Government will ‘take over’
    Shan Ju Lin said she believed she and the party would get the votes of “Good Asians” in the Queensland election, slated for 2018, as they too feared the rising influence of the Chinese Government in Australia.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-21/one-nation-candidate-shan-ju-lin-defends-pauline-hanson/8135684?sf47591118=1

    I started a post about this earlier today and abandoned the exercise. I am reminded of Johnny Cash’s song about The One On The Right Is On The Left. Which one is the good one? FIIK. Complete twaddle.
    I have worked out the good muslims, however. The good ones are the ones who drop catches in test matches. The bad ones take the hard catches. I have convinced my GP of this “fact” (said he with a Tony Abbott wink).
    Since then we have had a little chatter about one Senator Bernardi.
    Also I have had a conversation with a post office delivery man.
    I find that talking to my dead wife makes just as much sense as trying to impart rationality to people who hold entrenched ideas based on nothing at all of substance.
    For instance the post office person does not like Bill Shorten because he said something to someone once upon a time. Policy – forget it.
    Cori – I know, in the same way I know that human induced climate change is happening, is a nasty, self serving, poor excuse for a human being. I say that in the nicest possible way, of course.
    Time to help the regimental dog to have her afternoon sleep. 😎

  9. The Great Game.
    A pro Russian leader in Bulgaria. Russia now have a joint military force with Armenia. Ties with the ‘Stans are obvious. Now it appears they are planning to wedge Iraq when the US leave. Iraq will have to either form stronger ties with Russia or Russia will back the Kurds for an independent state (which will peeve Turkey – unless they fall into line).

    Iran-Russia relations are less clear. But it is easy to see why Obama wanted to thaw relations with Iran.

    Russias ties with Pakistan are growing.

    Trumps isolationism (or incompetence induced idleness) will embolden Russia further. Vacuums do not last long in geopolitics.

    Merry Christmas Bludgers.

  10. DTT

    And I guess you’d allow Bernadi to make up his own facts, and to use his own system of logic, because after all, in the future Bernadi (il)logic might prove to be the real logic.

    The examples through history of the orthodox “group think” being wrong are not widespread, not withstanding some of them being hugely significant eg that the world is flat and that earth, not the sun is the centre of our universe, or indeed that our universe is THE universe.

    However those events in the main had one thing in common ….. the “orthodox”view (eg that the sun orbitted the earth,) was not based on rational, testable evidence or argument.

    Discussion and persuasion by dialectic, rather than debate, ensures a reliable extension and development of human knowledge to the extent that mere discourse can lead to new ideas and to “the truth”.

    BTW over time you have made many accusatory references to “group think” on PB. I was wondering if that was just a mode of self justification, given that you do occasionally make unsubstantiated and exaggerated claims here.

    For you we watch out for oncoming Ebola. For Bernadi we watch out for oncoming bestiality. For Hanson 2oth century it’s oncoming Asians. For Hanson 21st century it’s oncoming Muslims. For Minchin it was oncoming evidence that smoking does not cure cancer. For Roberts, it’s oncoming empirical evidence ….. a “substance” he himself invented of course.

  11. for someone in a position of great influence to the general populace, LIES and Distortion are not free speech

    I’d agree with that. Or at least that they should not be free speech in that case. I think that in general, the more power/influence a person wields, the higher the standard they need to be held to.

    However I don’t think there’s really any legal basis for that, currently. If anything, the opposite happens. Get enough power and you end up with ‘Parliamentary privilege’, which pretty much gives you free reign to say whatever untrue things you want without fear of repercussions.

  14. MTBW

    Thank you for your response.

    I do not trust him because I think he is ideologically driven.

    But he is quite skilful at putting his irrationality and illogicality out into the media stratosphere. To anyone not vigilantly thoughtful about what they hear and see, he can seem to be quite on the ball.

  15. Re: Bernardi and how he presents – check out the ‘Hard Chat’ he did for “The Yearly” – I was stunned by how engaging, self deprecating, actually funny and basically charming he was.

    And I say that fully aware of how ugly most of Bernardi’s views are, and being repelled by his seemingly Trump-inspired tan (fake or otherwise). I think he’s a dangerous man to underestimate.

  16. jackol @ #115 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 4:15 pm

    Re: Bernardi and how he presents – check out the ‘Hard Chat’ he did for “The Yearly” – I was stunned by how engaging, self deprecating, actually funny and basically charming he was.
    And I say that fully aware of how ugly most of Bernardi’s views are, and being repelled by his seemingly Trump-inspired tan (fake or otherwise). I think he’s a dangerous man to underestimate.

    I seem him exactly the same way and that makes him much more dangerous than an obvious ranter.

  20. Psyclaw
    He thinks he is a smart arse and he really thinks his shite doesn’t stink as well.
    What has he brought to the Parliament with his sly face.

  22. In 2014 the Productivity Commission recommended a first-step injection of $200m into the public legal assistance sector. Yet the commonwealth government not only failed to adequately respond, it will soon cut funding to CLCs by 30%.

    Advertisement

    At the same time, under the federal attorney general, George Brandis – who simultaneously championed free speech – federal funding for CLCs became tied to a gag on systemic advocacy. Environment Defenders Offices lost their federal funding, and remain subject to regular federal efforts to deny them charity status and other financial advantages.
    …
    The recent restructures – only the tip of the iceberg – have gutted those community organisations of their strong and independent advocacy capacity, and particularly targeted those staff attempting to defend against significant incursions by new management.

    Liberal federal governments eroded independent advocacy when they forced non-profit organisations to become leaner. But the bigger conservative victory is that many of those same organisations are also becoming meaner.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/21/dont-let-new-money-for-family-violence-fool-you-community-legal-centres-have-been-gutted?CMP=soc_568

  26. Ed Hunter
    ‏@EdwardJWHunter
    “Australia’s peak architects body wants controversial plans to build a new 2.6-metre fence around Parliament House put on hold & reviewed.”

  28. As Donald Trump crisscrossed the nation on his presidential campaign, he traveled with an official Secret Service detail — in keeping with a law passed by Congress the day after Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated, in 1968. Trump, a longtime public figure and celebrity, supplemented his Secret Service phalanx with his own private security force. His chief bodyguard, a retired New York City cop named Keith Schiller, can be seen looming in the background of countless campaign appearances. But Schiller isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Despite the fact that it’s standard practice for a president-elect to put security entirely in the hands of the Secret Service, Trump is also maintaining that private army, an unconventional arrangement that one former agent called “playing with fire,” according to a Politico report.

    Law enforcement officials interviewed by Politico warned that this unusual arrangement has already complicated the job of the Secret Service agents who undergo rigorous crisis training throughout their careers. Agents reportedly criticized Schiller as slow to react last spring when a man rushed the stage as Trump spoke in Dayton, Ohio. While some Secret Service agents tackled the man and others shielded Trump, it took Schiller a moment too long to move. Schiller has also been seen wading into the crowd during the president-elect’s “thank you” rallies to help other private security agents eject protesters at Trump’s behest, raising questions about the use of force and prompting lawsuits. The Secret Service is known for its discretion; Schiller, a longtime loyalist, was retweeting Tweets about “Criminal President Obama” as recently as Nov. 6.

    While complaints from unnamed Secret Service agents assigned to the Trump detail might be dismissed as mere back-bench carping, his unconventional security arrangements are quickly racking up costs. On the campaign trail, Trump spent more than $1 million on private security contracting, eclipsing the Clinton campaign, according to Federal Election Commission reports compiled by Politico.

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2016/12/21/trump-security-undercuts-secret-service/XVftdj8rHcKedaEhyK5BZP/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter

  29. lizzie @ #126 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 4:52 pm

    Ed Hunter
    ‏@EdwardJWHunter
    “Australia’s peak architects body wants controversial plans to build a new 2.6-metre fence around Parliament House put on hold & reviewed.”

    Agreed. Make it 5m, electrified and with razor wire. Some of the pollies might still be able to get out over just a 2.6m fence.

  31. Re: Bernardi and how he presents – check out the ‘Hard Chat’ he did for “The Yearly” – I was stunned by how engaging, self deprecating, actually funny and basically charming he was.

    Yep, very much like Nick Minchin in that regard. Minchin is also incredibly charming and charismatic, and I’d bet in real life Bernardi is the same.

  32. https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/myefo-no-budget-repair-more-welfare-crackdowns-same-old-excuses,9858#.WFkj0cP18K8.twitter

    People like Treasurer Scott Morrison and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann – and Barnaby Joyce and Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott – give every impression of being economically illiterate. They are a huge cost to the public purse. Yet these men have no hesitation in telling, say, welfare recipients how to live on a tiny budget in deeply unnecessary poverty.

    A neoliberal government will characterise welfare recipients as a social problem lacking money management skills. In reality, people who rely on welfare to feed and clothe themselves and others – sole parents, carers, unemployed people, aged pensioners – are very adept economic managers. There is nothing unskilled, or lazy, or immoral, about maintaining a household on a pittance, while the government of the day continuously attacks your very existence.

    That government of the day, by contrast, is comprised of highly remunerated members who enjoy every social and financial structural advantage of a wealthy western nation. Many have been paid from Treasury coffers their entire lives. I have no personal knowledge of how ex-police officer and current Minister for Immigration and Border Protection Peter Dutton has amassed a $20 million property portfolio. But we can be sure Mr Dutton would claim this wealth is a product of “hard work”, or “savvy investment” or “risk management”.

    Whatever risks Dutton has taken on behalf of himself and his family, it is only with money and only while his base salary is paid – and thus the risk underwritten – by the state. The risks taken by Dutton on behalf of asylum-seekers, by contrast, are life-and-death matters. His decisions have directly resulted in mass human anguish, provided access for rapists to rape women and children, have triggered self-immolation, overseen forced childbirth. We have paid upwards of $10 billion to see these lives destroyed on our watch.

  33. C@tmomma’s baaaack! Run for the hills!

    I blame Kay Jay for my absence. He sent me a list of emoji codes and my modem curled up it’s toes and died on Monday night! 😯

    However, $300 and a new Modem Router later….here I is! 😀

  38. P1

    In the spirit of the Commonwealth the fence can be patrolled by creatures from each state and Territory. Crocs from the NT, Inland Taipans from SA, Cassowarys from Qld,Funnel webs from NSW, Perenties from WA. Tassie devils from Tassie , Eastern browns from Victoria and in season from the ACT Bogong Moths 🙂

  40. player one @ #129 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 5:00 pm

    lizzie @ #126 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 4:52 pm

    Ed Hunter
    ‏@EdwardJWHunter
    “Australia’s peak architects body wants controversial plans to build a new 2.6-metre fence around Parliament House put on hold & reviewed.”

    Agreed. Make it 5m, electrified and with razor wire. Some of the pollies might still be able to get out over just a 2.6m fence.

    “We’re going to build an electrified fence around Parliament… and Parliament is going to pay for it!!”

  41. confessions @ #131 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    Re: Bernardi and how he presents – check out the ‘Hard Chat’ he did for “The Yearly” – I was stunned by how engaging, self deprecating, actually funny and basically charming he was.

    Yep, very much like Nick Minchin in that regard. Minchin is also incredibly charming and charismatic, and I’d bet in real life Bernardi is the same.

    Amazing stuff!

    I once made a similar remark about Minchin, stating that he was one of the most significant figures on that side of politics, prompting Confessions to go on and on and on for page after page alleging I had somehow defended or supported Minchin and attacking me on that basis!

    Of course within a few days, she was saying exactly what I had said, and she had attacked me for saying!

    Just regurgitates the thoughts of others all the time, either echoing them back or pretending they are original thoughts later. 😆

  43. c@tmomma @ #133 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 5:14 pm

    C@tmomma’s baaaack! Run for the hills!
    I blame Kay Jay for my absence. He sent me a list of emoji codes and my modem curled up it’s toes and died on Monday night!
    However, $300 and a new Modem Router later….here I is!

    Firstly, I deny all knowledge of anything.
    Secondly the codes have nothing to do with the modem
    Thirdly, you need to talk to kindly old Uncle Kayjay. He has a couple of excellent modem that work very well.
    Fourthly or forthly as can be seen above I have been looking at other smilies.
    ☺☻♥╚♣♠•◘○
    ♂♀♪♫☼►
    ◄↕‼◙¶§▬↨↑↓→↑←↔∟▲
    ▲▼ !
    §▬↨↑↓☺
    http://www.djod.co.uk/2008/12/16/how-to-do-music-notes-love-hearts-and-other-symbols-in-facebook-status-updates-and-chat/
    Fifthly, we wish you a merry Christmas/happy holiday/ wonderful birthday as is your wish. Bon soir sœur ♥ ❤️

  46. Bemused,
    If it really was caused by characters he sent to you, then your modem may just have required a reset.

    It was a joke!

    Sheesh! 🙄

    My modem router actually did die on Monday night. Confirmed by the tech experts. It just happened to coincide with the emoji list from Kay Jay. So I thought…I’ll blame Kay Jay! 😉

    Now I hope that it is clear to you, Bemused. 😆

  49. c@tmomma @ #146 Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 5:29 pm

    Bemused,
    If it really was caused by characters he sent to you, then your modem may just have required a reset.
    It was a joke!
    Sheesh!
    My modem router actually did die on Monday night. Confirmed by the tech experts. It just happened to coincide with the emoji list from Kay Jay. So I thought…I’ll blame Kay Jay! 😉
    Now I hope that it is clear to you, Bemused. 😆

    It could be possible if a remote command was inadvertently sent to a modem.
    I used to do it in the days of dial-up modems.

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