Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention in the last Essential Research poll for the year, which finds respondents taking a dim view of 2016 in general.

Essential Research closes its account for 2016 with another finding of 53-47 in favour of Labor, with both major parties steady on 37%, the Greens and One Nation both up a point to 10% and 8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. The other findings record a view that 2016 was a bad year for pretty much everything, most remarkably in the case of “Australian politics” (good by 6%, bad by 62%) and “the planet” (good by 12%, bad by 44%), with a follow-up on expectations for 2017 producing much the same results. The current state of the economy was rated good by 23% and bad by 36%, with 26% rating it headed in the right direction against 45% for the wrong direction. Thirteen per cent expect their job to be more secure in two years, versus 30% for less secure. A question on whether Malcolm Turnbull understands various issues confirms, in a roundabout kind of way, that he’s more understanding of the rich than the poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,787 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-25/aussie-spending-christmas-on-a-asylum-seeker-rescue-boat/8147586

    “Once all of the refugees were saved, we returned to their boat and spray-painted the search and rescue case number on the boat, took a sample of the inflatable rubber for analysis and dropped the motor and cut the boat to sink it so it would not be collected and used again,” Lewis said.

    The 112 rescued asylum seekers were transferred to the Italian coast guard to be taken back to Italy, freeing up the Aquarius to head back to the rescue zone west of the Mediterranean Sea.

  2. Thinking of travelling to the US soon? The likelihood is that you’ll need to apply for an ESTA or Visa waiver agreement.

    Well as part of that process you’ll now be asked to provide all your social media accounts, from Facebook to Google+.

    The move was discovered by news site Politico and is apparently, optional at present.

    As part of the application process, users will find a new box which asks if they would like to provide “information associated with your online presence,”. It then gives you the choice of entering in your public username for Twitter, Facebook and even LinkedIn.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/us-government-starts-asking-foreign-visitors-for-their-social-media-accounts_uk_585cf5efe4b00768ddcec061

    These kinds of privacy intrusions are scary enough now without the incoming Trump Administration on the horizon.

  3. Our solution to the xmas feast is to stage it over two meals: lunch and dinner. In between people do their own thing – some take naps, watch TV or read, others go for walks, while some power through the between-meals phase with more alcohol.

  4. One day, about 30 years ago, U was heading quietly up the road in my green Ford station wagon with about 20 goats in the back. (They generally stayed in the back and wouldn’t cross into the front seat because they were straight out of the Flinders and were afraid of humans. )
    Anyway, a policeman’s wife, doing her makeup on the way to an appointment, failed to notice a stop sign and pulled out in front of me on the left. This initiated a 20 goat crash stop on my behalf. It’s lucky I slowed down a bit because, instead of hitting her car on the pillar just in front of the rear seat, heavy green wagon would have hit the driverside door and probably killed her.
    The impact spun my ford wagon and 20 goats 180 degrees and totalled both vehicles.
    Once I had extricated myself from underneath 20 goats compressed in the front seat, and went to her assistance, she was very sorry, apologetic, and admitted fault . She admitted that she was not paying attention and was on her way to an appointment.
    Problem was her old man was a cop. Over the next few weeks her admitted liability metamorphosed into something else.
    I ended up having to claim my own insurance, but this fell through because my insurance claim noted a previous minor offense which was not noted on the insurance papers which I signed when I purchased the wagon. The goats were the only other witnesses, and they were pretty shaken up.
    Moral is, don’t assume cops are moral, and always make sure that the statements you make when purchasing car insurance match exactly those you put on a claim form.

  6. I bought a friend of mine a set of norty lingerie as a Christmas present (she was newly divorced…)

    I was chortling about the funniness of this so much that I went through a giveway sign without looking. There was a funny sort of scraping noise, and the car in front of me started weaving around a bit erratically. I then realised I’d hit it.

    Because I didn’t realise I was in an accident until after it had happened, I had absolutely no adrenalin rush. It felt a bit weird, being perfectly calm and matter of fact in a situation where normally I’d be stressed.

    I admitted full fault (in writing) both to the driver and (later) my insurance company.

    My husband’s only comment was that I’d chosen the right panel to crumple, as it needed replacing anyway.

  10. BB, silly question, but how does his car manage to leak fuel if its a relatively minor collision? Sorry the engineer in me has to ask this.

  12. confessions @ #1600 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 5:35 pm

    Bushfire:
    Glad nobody was seriously hurt, as it sounds as if things could’ve been worse than they are.

    God some people are precious about their cars.

    As I discovered to my hilarity the other day when my expressed personal dislike of a particular make of car was interpreted as a vicious smear of working Australians.
    Sometimes I wonder how people cope with actual problems, such is their inability to deal with very (as in, VERY) minor or irrelevant issues.

    I think I should start a book on how long Confessions will keep banging on about the reaction to her dopey post the other day and her distorted version of it.
    I reckon it is good for at least a fortnight and an occasional re-visit after that.
    What a dill! 😆

  14. Merry Christian non PC Christmas one & all. I have a new ‘puter and have finally managed to log in.
    I’ve tried to keep up but always was kept 3hrs behind & unable to even load a page on my ipad.

    Which regular had a heart attack?
    I went to SCGH/QEII midnight on 14th with angina pains which had been coming on for a couple of weeks. I was tested immediately & angiogrammed 1st thing Wednesday. No stents required, they’re treating me with 8 kinds of drugs. AND I’ve stopped smoking which is the real problem. Hat tip to the wonderful staff at the best public hospital in Australia (Curtin electorate).
    Pleased about:
    Obama abstaining;
    WA Police Claremont result;
    Liberal recession.
    ttfn

  16. silentmajority @ #1614 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 6:46 pm

    Merry Christian non PC Christmas one & all. I have a new ‘puter and have finally managed to log in.
    I’ve tried to keep up but always was kept 3hrs behind & unable to even load a page on my ipad.
    Which regular had a heart attack?
    I went to SCGH/QEII midnight on 14th with angina pains which had been coming on for a couple of weeks. I was tested immediately & angiogrammed 1st thing Wednesday. No stents required, they’re treating me with 8 kinds of drugs. AND I’ve stopped smoking which is the real problem. Hat tip to the wonderful staff at the best public hospital in Australia (Curtin electorate).
    Pleased about:
    Obama abstaining;
    WA Police Claremont result;
    Liberal recession.
    ttfn

    I didn’t have a heart attack but was on my way to one. My GP acted promptly and in less than a week I had an angiogram and a stent inserted.
    The most painful part was the cashectomey. GP insisted I could not wait for a Public Hospital.

  18. The most painful part was the cashectomey. GP insisted I could not wait for a Public Hospital.

    Well, living in Curtin electorate has it’s priviliges. When we got to Charlies ED I went straight in. All free so far but there’s a Cardiologist’s consult to come.

  20. I have been involved in a couple of car crashes. Neither was my fault.
    I expect the ancients never had to encounter crashes of this nature and so they (motor car collisions) are traumatic.
    My memory was faulty after each crash and only recovered after a lapse of many hours.
    …………………………………..
    Visit from senior favourite daughter, her husband, two grand daughters and last but not least Arthur Percy, great grandson extraordinaire.
    Beautiful child, 14 months, running about, interested in everything. He likes my musical shakers and rattlers.
    Not sure if he was paying attention while I told him to always vote Labor.
    A very peaceful Christmas evening here for us (Abbee, the regimental dog and I).

  21. silentmajority @ #1618 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 7:07 pm

    The most painful part was the cashectomey. GP insisted I could not wait for a Public Hospital.
    Well, living in Curtin electorate has it’s priviliges. When we got to Charlies ED I went straight in. All free so far but there’s a Cardiologist’s consult to come.

    With the benefit of hindsight I should have had her call an ambulance, that gets you straight in to a public hospital and I am in the area for a good one.
    But OTOH, I am told the cardiologist I had is one of the very best and I certainly can’t complain about any aspect of the treatment. I was quite amazed how routine and apparently straight forward it all was.

  24. BB, silly question, but how does his car manage to leak fuel if its a relatively minor collision?

    I got rear-ended some years ago and my fuel tank ruptured. I suffered nothing more than shock and days-long lingering pain where the seatbelt was on my body, and the guy who rammed me admittedly had more injuries than me. But we both walked away relatively unscathed nonetheless.

  26. Kayjay:

    I’ve noticed you refer to Arthur Percy great grandson previously. Is Arthur Percy his actual name, or a nickname of sorts?

  27. bemused

    I insurance claim (medium) and one speeding fine in 40yrs of driving.

    I hope your OH has her gumboots and raincoat to hand. They seem now to be predicting a big rain event up there.

  28. Probably different state rules re driving.
    Bemused, I’ve had the $500 ride in the ambulance to the same ED.
    I had the missus take me on the same 10 min journey (once with a kidney stone).
    Unless you’re going to die on the way or suffer serious heart damage it’s better for me to jump in the car & be there before the Ambo’s get to my place from the hospital.
    I just walk in & say angina.

  29. ctar1 @ #1627 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 7:24 pm

    bemused
    I insurance claim (medium) and one speeding fine in 40yrs of driving.
    I hope your OH has her gumboots and raincoat to hand. They seem now to be predicting a big rain event up there.

    Yep. Didn’t mention it yesterday. If you are in the tropics anywhere, these are just a regular occurrence and nothing special.
    I had one minor scrape that was my fault but otherwise my accidents have been the fault of others, often with me stationery. A few speeding tickets.

  30. As part of the application process, users will find a new box which asks if they would like to provide “information associated with your online presence,”. It then gives you the choice of entering in your public username for Twitter, Facebook and even LinkedIn.

    Well I’m sunk then. It looks like I won’t be able to go to America while ever Trump is in power. Yesterday on Twitter I told him and an avid supporter of his (ex Marine), that they both had small penises because they were promoting a mug with Trump standing atop a tank with a big erect gun on it pointing skywards. 😉

  31. silentmajority @ #1628 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 7:27 pm

    Probably different state rules re driving.
    Bemused, I’ve had the $500 ride in the ambulance to the same ED.
    I had the missus take me on the same 10 min journey (once with a kidney stone).
    Unless you’re going to die on the way or suffer serious heart damage it’s better for me to jump in the car & be there before the Ambo’s get to my place from the hospital.
    I just walk in & say angina.

    Ambulance fund membership in Victoria is $80 pa IIRC, so no big issue there.
    On reflection and with the panic behind me (more the GP than me) I should have gone home and called an ambulance. Approx savings $750 and counting.
    Another great option is ‘Nurse on Call’. If they think it is serious, they will call the ambulance.

  32. confessions @ #1626 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 7:16 pm

    Kayjay:
    I’ve noticed you refer to Arthur Percy great grandson previously. Is Arthur Percy his actual name, or a nickname of sorts?

    He really is “Arthur Percy”. He is a gorgeous little boy. He arrived being carried by his mum, sound asleep with dummy/pacifier in his mouth. He soon recovered and started to investigate. I am always so very pleased to see him. 😀

  35. confessions @ #1634 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 7:38 pm

    Kayjay:
    He sounds very cute. And he has a great role model in his great grand-daddy. 🙂

    You are now formally inducted into the KayJay school of master BS Artists.
    I now aware you cardboard tail and two ears. (Bull fighting is one of the most reprehensible of all human activities. ❤
    Also a gold star and an elephant stamp on the back of each hand.

  39. I was just marveling, but not in a good way, at how Vladimir Putin rolls. He is the most Machiavellian politician of our age, and he is relentless in the pursuit of absolute control over all other political leaders.

    For example, in America. He is continuing to mess with the heads of the Democrats, even after President Obama told him to ‘quit it!’

    He’s telling them not to be sore losers! Even when the Democratic candidate won almost 3 million more votes than the St Petersburg Candidate, Trump. So, he focuses on the literal sense of the win by Trump, not the absolute sense, and he blithely ignores the role his agents played, along with Assange, of leaking the DNC Hacks. Putin puts the Dems down further by telling them that he believed in Trump. As if it was some sort of virtue to do so, not a convenient cover for the candidate that he helped install.

    Then he refers to the now almost common belief that Russia did indeed intervene in the American election, though not by denying it, but by casually dismissing it with the observation that, as the Republicans also won the Senate and the House, did he orchestrate that as well!?!

    Which completely ignores the fact of the Republican gerrymanders in House seats that enables them to keep on winning, plus the likely blow-back effect on Democratic contenders in close Senate races which his well-orchestrated interventions had.

    Not only that but he has written a congratulatory letter to the Trumpers, as a sort of middle finger salute to Obama before he leaves office. And, oh how the Trumpers lolled! As well as telling Putin that he can have the Ukraine as soon as Trump puts his feet under the Oval Office desk.

    It’s truly sick-making.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/russian-president-vladimir-putin-to-democratic-party-i-believed-in-trump-you-lost-get-over-it-20161223-gthlbc.html

  40. Being Christmas and knowing that the Pollbludger choir believes in good will to all men, I am hoping that the Pollbludger Choir, out of their love for Malcolm, will all cheerfully sing together. Now clear your throats, Mr Bowe, strike up the orchestra and Choir members, to the tune of All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth…

    All I want for Christmas is my testicles
    My testicles, ee, my testicles
    Gee, if I could only have my testicles
    Then I could state my real opinion

    Apologies to Spike Lee…

    Tom.

  41. confessions @ #1600 #1600 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 5:35 pm

    Bushfire:
    Glad nobody was seriously hurt, as it sounds as if things could’ve been worse than they are.

    God some people are precious about their cars.

    As I discovered to my hilarity the other day when my expressed personal dislike of a particular make of car was interpreted as a vicious smear of working Australians.
    Sometimes I wonder how people cope with actual problems, such is their inability to deal with very (as in, VERY) minor or irrelevant issues.

    Methinks the lady doth protest too much.

  42. bemused @ #1612 #1612 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 6:43 pm

    confessions @ #1600 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 5:35 pm

    Bushfire:
    Glad nobody was seriously hurt, as it sounds as if things could’ve been worse than they are.

    God some people are precious about their cars.

    As I discovered to my hilarity the other day when my expressed personal dislike of a particular make of car was interpreted as a vicious smear of working Australians.
    Sometimes I wonder how people cope with actual problems, such is their inability to deal with very (as in, VERY) minor or irrelevant issues.

    I think I should start a book on how long Confessions will keep banging on about the reaction to her dopey post the other day and her distorted version of it.
    I reckon it is good for at least a fortnight and an occasional re-visit after that.
    What a dill! 😆

    I must have really got through to her. Should do it more often.
    I was interested that she played both the sexism card and the ‘black is white, white is black, I never said that, you said it’ card.

    Hilarious!

    Go for it confessions, you know you can string this out further!

  43. Methinks the lady doth protest too much.

    Says the man doing all the protesting.

    Your car brand rant was among the most ridiculous things I’ve seen posted here. That shit was too crazy to ever let be forgotten. In fact it was so ridiculous I can’t see why you wouldn’t apply the same crazy-assed logic to other inanimate objects: bathroom tiles, kitchen appliances, whipper snippers, washing machines. The list is endless.

  44. confessions @ #1643 #1643 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 8:47 pm

    Methinks the lady doth protest too much.

    Says the man doing all the protesting.
    Your car brand rant was among the most ridiculous things I’ve seen posted here. That shit was too crazy to ever let be forgotten. In fact it was so ridiculous I can’t see why you wouldn’t apply the same crazy-assed logic to other inanimate objects: bathroom tiles, kitchen appliances, whipper snippers, washing machines. The list is endless.

    Keep going, you know you can do it!

  45. tom @ #1640 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 8:31 pm

    Being Christmas and knowing that the Pollbludger choir believes in good will to all men, I am hoping that the Pollbludger Choir, out of their love for Malcolm, will all cheerfully sing together. Now clear your throats, Mr Bowe, strike up the orchestra and Choir members, to the tune of All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth…
    ♪All I want for Christmas is my testicles
    My testicles, ee, my testicles
    Gee, if I could only have my testicles
    Then I could state my real opinion♫
    Apologies to Spike Lee…
    Tom.

    ❤

  46. I haven’t heard much from the ALP about this..
    I’d like to hear a lot. It is wrong.
    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/students-accused-of-welfare-fraud-say-centrelink-is-wrong/8127550
    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/centrelink-boss-offers-personal-email/8136138
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/22/centrelinks-10-debt-recovery-fee-comes-as-news-to-human-services-minister

    Wilkie’s had a go and referred it to the Commonwealth Ombudsman but nothing from Labor that I’ve seen. I was told I owed the Gov 5 grand 3 weeks before Christmas for something from 6 years ago that they have just caught up with me for. Total guilty before proven innocent scenario that is surprisingly late? or good timing. Suffice to say I do know of people who upon receiving one of these memorandums of misunderstandings might just say fuck it one last time.

  47. boomy1 @ #1646 Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    I haven’t heard much from the ALP about this..
    I’d like to hear a lot. It is wrong.
    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/students-accused-of-welfare-fraud-say-centrelink-is-wrong/8127550
    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/centrelink-boss-offers-personal-email/8136138
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/22/centrelinks-10-debt-recovery-fee-comes-as-news-to-human-services-minister
    Wilkie’s had a go and referred it to the Commonwealth Ombudsman but nothing from Labor that I’ve seen. I was told I owed the Gov 5 grand 3 weeks before Christmas for something from 6 years ago that they have just caught up with me for. Total guilty before proven innocent scenario that is surprisingly late? or good timing. Suffice to say I do know of people who upon receiving one of these memorandums of misunderstandings might just say fuck it one last time.

    I’d go to the Ombudsman. Classic maladministration in my book. Complaining to the Ombudsman, rather than ignoring the request, shows that a person has been trying to sort it out but is unable to because of Human Services maladministration. Very powerful.

  49. @1648
    I hope they are, it is an issue that they should fight. I do think that the LNP havey have overeached. This is a public blog response from a Centrelink employee. (so you get the gist)

    I’ve seen this in the office dozens of times, (service centre worker here), and it gives me the shits. Yes, reviews must be done online, and yes, wages have been averaged out over an entire year (or sometimes a shorter, but still incorrect period). I have great pity on people who receive the letters, as I believe most (~70%) people reported their income correctly at the time and shouldn’t have a debt. I do all I can to help, but we can’t do the initial online review. We can see where the automated process has deleted previously reported income and added in the new figures (generally the figure reported in your payment summary divided by 26). My advice: • logon to Centrelink via myGov or the direct way, click Menu -> Compliance -> Compliance Action (If you don’t have an online account you will need to go to a service centre with photo ID) • if your review date has passed and a debt has already been raised, you will have to lodge an appeal. Do that in person, and provide any info you can about income received that year (payslips, letters, working start and end dates, or a signed statement) • if no debt has been raised, you can click on the clock to get a two week extension if needed • for each employer in your letter, you will need to confirm the amount you received in the financial year (ie the bit you report to the ATO from your payment summary). This figure is most likely correct • once you’ve confirmed the total, you can then say what it is made up of (ie, normal payments, fringe benefits or other things). It’s most likely made up of gross payments, so click on this button • from here, you can specify what you received weekly (or fortnightly or monthly) – select a period (eg fortnightly) a start date (eg your first pay day or reporting day in that financial year) and hit go • now you can enter what you received and when. Ideally, you’d put in what you originally reported (you should be able to get this from a staff member if you ask nicely, and it is quite likely zero) during the time you received payments, and the rest of the time, put in higher amounts so they add up to the amount in your group certificate/payment summary • hit submit, and you’ll get a message saying “yeah, we’ll get back to you when we’re ready” (or something) • I still haven’t worked out if you absolutely need to provide supporting documentation or not, but if you’ve got some, upload it or hand a copy into a service centre with your CRN on it.
    If you missed the deadline and are on payments, when you make the appeal, offer to pay $10 or $15 a fortnight (minimum amounts, depending how much you owe). Keep checking this amount every 3 months, as it can go up automatically. If you aren’t on any payments, just do the appeal. If you’re looking to get a loan, this may affect your credit rating. Not sure how this will affect you. Sorry.
    Remember, Centrelink workers are there to help you, and they are more like likely to help when you are nice.
    I’ve had more tears than anything, so I try to reassure customers there’s a good chance it is not correct. But if you didn’t report your earnings, or you reported nett unsteady of gross, then you will have a debt.
    And contact your MP, and the media (Canberra Times?). What’s happening is just not correct. Something needs to be done.

    Amen

  50. Boomy1,
    You are not alone. As I reported here yesterday, I have been having a problem with Centrelink and the Job Network conducting a ‘Review’ of my son’s ‘Participation’ in Job interviews, Work for the Dole attendance and wrt any Casual work he has done, behind his back, and then the first thing we find out about it is on Christmas Eve, that his payments have been cut for 8 weeks!!! So we had to drop everything and race into the place that had made the misguided decision and try and explain things to them in terms they understand, which equates to various catchphrases such as the Call Centre employee above used. We had to learn them very, very quickly and convert our situation into that sort of Centrelinkspeak in order for it to compute with them and fit into one of their neat little boxes. If it doesn’t then they can just airily say that you haven’t complied with the requirements they demand of you!

    There were tears, there were pleas for mercy and there were phone calls and waiting, waiting, waiting on the Call Centre line to speak to an anonymous bod at the other end who held your family’s future viability in their hands.

    We ended up being granted a 2 week ‘stay of execution’. Then we have to go through it all again. Better than nothing I guess.

    This has all started since Scott Morrison and Christian Porter and Alan Tudge, hard cases all, were put in charge of Welfare. If only they applied the same level of zeal to extracting taxes out of ‘agile’ companies who avoid the paying of tax whenever and wherever possible.

    Instead this government prefers to apply the ‘Pulling the wings off flies’ approach to the most vulnerable in our society.

    Because they revel in being malevolent and encouraging their private sector allies who have the contracts to provide the ‘Services’ of government, to be the same.

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