BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).

bt2019-2016-12-21

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Hope this works, BK is locked out.
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Andrew D. Gilman, who has consulted with companies like Johnson & Johnson, General Motors and Pepsi during crises, is telling brands to prepare for Trump as they would for a natural disaster.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/be-prepared-for-donald-trumps-attacks-brand-experts-say-20161226-gti331.html
    I’m glad I was where I was on Boxing day!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-traffic-heavy-traffic-puts-delays-on-boxing-day-sales-plans-20161225-gthv5j.html
    Jenna Price with a call for more conviction politicians.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-improve-the-political-system–become-a-preselector-for-peter-dutton-20161226-gthxw6.html
    Bob Carr writes on the genius of the latest UN resolution on Israeli settlement of Palestine. A very interesting exposition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-genius-of-the-uns-resolution-on-israeli-settlements-20161225-gthumf.html
    A desperate Barnaby Joyce throws in expensive sweeteners for public servants to move to Armidale.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/the-payoff-public-servants-offered-big-bucks-to-stay-with-apvma-20161223-gth9d1.html
    Penny Wong recalls John Curtin’s nation-changing speech from 75 years ago.
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/prime-minister-john-curtins-vision-built-a-new-australia/news-story/87914866e197edcb17fd671358cc4a0f
    Already older voters are punishing Turnbull as the realisation of pension cuts dawn. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/older-voters-turn-on-malcolm-turnbull-as-pensions-changes-loom/news-story/0ef7ad550d5a85ac3bfd2f10892fba0d
    The reviews are in, and for the first time, has not awarded recommended ratings for MacBooks. If Apple stays true to form it will sell replacement batteries for $1000.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/macbook-pros-battery-issue-makes-it-first-apple-laptop-not-recommended-by-consumer-reports-20161226-gthvey.html
    It’s hard to argue against the fence around Parliament House in Canberra, because we don’t know what the security agencies advocating it know, and they won’t tell us. The SMH editorial gets stuck into the decision-making process,
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/public-left-out-of-parliament-house-security-changes-20161222-gtgtun.html
    Robert Gottliebsen tells us that it is time to drain the JSF swamp. Will Trump do us a favour? Google.
    /business/opinion/robert-gottliebsen/time-to-drain-f35-joint-strike-fighter-swamp/news-story/771153b81b85c155849636eb35154b5f
    Tim Dick thinks Prince Charles may could well be the unlikely man to lead the fight against intolerance.’
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-unlikely-man-to-lead-the-fight-against-the-rise-of-intolerance-prince-charles-20161223-gth3xp.html
    Are we abut to see a giant technological leap when it comes to polling days?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-electoral-commission-plans-for-voting-with-pens-not-pencils-20161225-gthu8c.html

    Reply

  2. Section 2 . . .

    Medicare joins Centrelink on the sick list when it comes to customer interaction.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-electoral-commission-plans-for-voting-with-pens-not-pencils-20161225-gthu8c.html
    Nicholas Stuart tells us to strap ourselves in for a bumpy ride in 2017.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/strap-yourself-into-2017-its-going-to-be-a-bumpy-ride-20161226-gthw9l.html

    Cathy Wilcox and the Christmas break.

    Mark Knight and the star studded show from the deceased of 2016.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8f22b5ff3775835a8e29d070f6c327b1?width=1024

  5. I have to wonder what is going on with BOM. Whilst I am glad the forecasts for Melbourne this week, are in the twenties with rain. Up until a day ago, the forecast showed mid thirties and no rain till Friday.

  8. The numbers on the over 50’s voters must be causing concern in the Liberal Party and, I’d guess, even anxiety in the National Party.

  9. I was surprised that channel 9 news last night did a detailed segment of the Newspoll quarterly. It reported on the fact that Turnbull’s popularity has nosedived and the demographics in which it has occurred.

  11. Barnaby is letting down the community, while pork barrelling just to save his own seat. His own department is suffering, while costing taxpayers more for fewer staff.

    Taxpayers face an even greater slug for Barnaby Joyce’s relocation of a Canberra public service agency to the heart of his own electorate, with desperate bosses at the pesticides authority considering pay rises of up to 15 per cent in order to convince staff not to quit.

    The pay rises would come on top of a 1.5 per cent retention bonus for workers still with the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority in December 2017, a 3 per cent bonus if they remain on the books until December 2018 and a 10 per cent if they are still around when the Canberra office shuts in mid-2019.

    Up to 12 free return flights a year between Canberra and Armidale are also being considered as an inducement for workers at the APVMA if they agree to make the move from their homes in and around the capital, 800 kilometres north to the northern NSW town.

    …The strategy also raises the possibility that APVMA workers might be able to stay in Canberra in the medium to long-term if they were prepared to work from home and if secure IT infrastructure could be developed.

    …The authority did not answer a series of questions last week, referring inquiries to public relations agency Sefton’s which has been hired to undertake the media relations on the move, but which did not respond to a request for comment.

    …A cost-benefit analysis of the relocation plan revealed that taxpayers were to be hit with a $25.6 million bill just to move the authority and that $157 million a year would be ripped from the Canberra’s economy as well as costing the ACT region 365 direct and indirect jobs.

    In December it emerged that the pesticides regulatory authority says it does not have enough staff to undertake its work on time, even before the move gets under way, with one section at half strength.

    And the man in charge of this debacle is the Deputy PM? How low we have sunk.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/the-payoff-public-servants-offered-big-bucks-to-stay-with-apvma-20161223-gth9d1.html

  12. The numbers on the over 50’s voters must be causing concern in the Liberal Party and, I’d guess, even anxiety in the National Party.

    Do you think it could be the reason the Conservative faction keep bleating about getting back to their base in the Liberal Party? Since the Howard era the Liberals have had a lock on the older demographics.

  13. ALL WORK
    A sobering and unsettling report. Sigh……….

    News Desk

    World War Three, by Mistake
    World War Three, by Mistake
    Harsh political rhetoric, combined with the vulnerability of the nuclear command-and-control system, has made the risk of global catastrophe greater than ever.

  15. “Normally you’d never have to worry about a president singling out your company before. Now you do.”

    Everything is personal and undignified, with Trump.

    “From conversations I’ve had, there is a clear sense that in the next administration, companies will have to get their story out much more aggressively and much more quickly than previously,” Adamson said.

    Vanity Fair’s swift response after Trump reacted to a negative review of a restaurant in one of his buildings by saying the magazine was “dead” could be an example for others to follow, Farrell said. Its message, including banner ads on its website calling itself “The Magazine Donald Trump Doesn’t Want You to Read” and asking for subscriptions, captured the magazine’s voice and identity. More than 40,000 people signed up for new subscriptions.

    “Vanity Fair played that perfectly,” Farrell said. “This was ‘the magazine that Trump doesn’t want you to read.’ I think their response was consistent with the brand’s DNA.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/be-prepared-for-donald-trumps-attacks-brand-experts-say-20161226-gti331.html

  16. Lizzie,
    Barnaby Joyce may be Australia’s best ‘Retail politician’ but therein lies the rub. He looks at everything through the prism of politics and benefiting himself and his party, not the nation.

  17. Lizzie

    i havent heard any further reporting on Turnbull conducting some cabinet reshuffles. Labor are no doubt focussed on Brandis and Porter re the Bell resources saga. But they would do well to put a great deal of pressure on BJoyce for this inexcusable decision making by him

  19. Lizzie

    Up to 12 free return flights a year between Canberra and Armidale are also being considered as an inducement for workers at the APVMA

    FIFO public servants?

  20. I’ve also found it strange but reassuring that it’s not necessarily the usual suspects that have been leading the resistance to Trump in the media world, instead it’s been the former magazines such as Vanity Fair and GQ, who used to do in-depth articles but not necessarily focus so much on politics, that have been leading the Anti Trump charge. Such as with Keith Olbermann being able to do his editorials out of GQ (and they are providing him with great suits too it looks like).

    As the article says, it’s probably a canny marketing move as well because Hillary DID get 3 million more votes than the Fake News king Trump and his Twitter propaganda feed directly into the maws of the gullible, so there’s a big market looking for an ideological home.

  21. Great Newspoll results for progressives

    Hanson rise is a split from right wing voters who would never vote for a progressive party in a pink fit.

    Its a sign of more division on the right and more proof that appeasment does not work as the LNP loses votes to the right

  22. C@

    Since the Howard era the Liberals have had a lock on the older demographics.

    It’s been forecast before that the over 50’s demographic is going to be ‘polluted’ in the years ahead by the movement into it of a more progressive generation.

  24. That was under a Twitter comment by Keane;

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 13h13 hours ago

    Recently came across this 2014 Times of Israel piece that quotes Julie Bishop on illegal settlements – then demolishes her argument

  26. Nations ban the use of this pesticide at home, but manufacturers still export it for profit abroad.

    Paraquat has long been controversial because of its use in suicides in many parts of the world, since drinking even one sip can be lethal. But now regulators in the US are grappling with a wave of research linking paraquat to a less immediately apparent effect — Parkinson’s disease.

    In a recent, little noticed regulatory filing, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said, “There is a large body of epidemiology data on paraquat dichloride use and Parkinson’s disease.” The agency is weighing whether to continue allowing the chemical to be sprayed on American cropland, although a decision is not expected until 2018, and it is unclear how the incoming administration of Donald Trump will view the matter.

    In the meantime, many of the nations that ban paraquat and other chemicals whose use is contentious still allow them to be manufactured as long as they are exported to faraway fields. The Huddersfield plant is owned by Syngenta, a pesticide giant based in Switzerland, which has not allowed paraquat since 1989.
    Even the government of China, a nation not known for environmental regulation, said in 2012 that it would phase out paraquat “to safeguard people’s lives”. But it still allows production for export.

    As Europe and China move away from paraquat, its use is rebounding in the US. That is particularly true for soybean fields, where the number of pounds used is up more than fourfold over the past decade, according to US Agriculture Department data.

    The world’s most popular weed killer is Monsanto’s Roundup; some 220 million pounds of its active ingredient were used last year in the US, according to the EPA. But weeds are becoming resistant to Roundup, and paraquat has been marketed as an alternative.

    http://gulfnews.com/culture/science/is-this-weed-killer-the-cause-of-parkinson-s-1.1951378

  27. CTar1

    Are any Coalition MPs capable of doing their jobs? (rhetorical question).
    Sussan Ley is removing funds for preventative medicine (tests for breast cancer, removal of small skin cancers).
    The trickle down theory of medicine? Wait until all problems are life threatening and the smaller cancers will magically disappear.

  28. Lizzie @ #23:
    It is wilful ignorance. She just does not want to criticise Israel.
    Their settlements have been illegal under the Geneva Convention since the 6 day war.

  29. CTar1,
    It’s been forecast before that the over 50’s demographic is going to be ‘polluted’ in the years ahead by the movement into it of a more progressive generation.

    However, otoh, that will be balanced by the tendency to conservatism as one ages.

    As Bill Maher observed yesterday in his interview with the online website attn:, we are probably seeing the era of political leaders who come out of the 1950s generation coming to an end and being replaced with the 60s generation of leaders and he hopes that will be good for us.

    Also, in noticing the uptick in Conservative-leaning voters in the younger generations, as mentioned by WB in the analysis of the Newspoll Quarterlies, I must say that it is a real phenomenon. Some of the younger generation I have spoken to are ‘Conservative’ to the extent that they are rebelling against the ‘Anything goes’ attitude of their parent’s generation, having seen the social destruction wrought by drugs, alcohol, tobacco, freely-available sex etc and saying they want none of it. So the Progressive warnings have worked too well and resulted in Conservative attitudes.

  30. Bemused

    Genuine thanks for accurately and fairly summarising my position re Clinton.

    Much appreciated. Taking a contrary position is very hard and especially hard when people through ignorance or stupidity or nastiness deliberately misunderstand.

  32. Lizzie

    Gottliebsen giving Pyne a serve this morning –

    Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter project is now in big trouble.

    And the vast army of Australia’s Joint Strike Fighter contractors are also in jeopardy because our government, led by Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne, has not woken up to what it means to have Donald Trump as US President.

    And it’s not only the a/c thing with defence.

    Our Navy also seems to me to be going into serious ‘dis-balance’. Three Air Warfare Destroyers aren’t enough to provide a screen for two very large Helicopter Landing ships. Twelve submarines, I think, are too many (and I doubt we could man them). Decisions made more to suit politics rather than sane defence planning.

  34. Lizzie Ctar

    The big story out of Newspoll demographics is that the right is split.
    Yes a lot are going to Hanson.

    However its the start of questioning of are the LNP fit to govern. Its the start of the loss for good of the LNP appealing to the right and winning elections. Unless you think the right, unlike what history has told us with the split in the left, of One Nation being the new unified right wing party.

    This could very well be the start of Labor being the natural party of government with the right parties only getting in when the protest vote gets too big

  36. C@tmomma
    #16 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 7:28 am

    Retail Politics.
    Examples
    Retail politics is the old-fashioned shaking hands and kissing babies.
    Word Origin
    orig referred to buying votes.

    Would not sleazy be a suitable descriptor for Mr. Joyce?
    In trying (foolishly) to be sensible with the favourite daughter’s husband last night after he finished telling me how stupid Michelle Obama is for talking in an interview about hope; I wonder whether partial deafness is good enough.
    Silly thought I know. However, the daughter defends her husband by telling me there are plenty more like him “out there”. It is not appropriate for me to inform FD that her husband is stupid.
    Dear Dorothy,
    Should I, when favourite daughter brings her moronic flat earther, no moon landings, 911 was government plot, husband to visit.
    Run away to sea.
    Hide under the bed.
    Rouse the dog into a fit off ferocious activity.
    Sing old time gospel songs – “I want to stroll over heaven with you” comes to mind.
    Ignore him.
    Please help.
    Signed
    Desperate.     🙁

  37. This could very well be the start of Labor being the natural party of government with the right parties only getting in when the protest vote gets too big

    Didn’t the last Essential say that people are seeing Labor as a party of the centre of politics?

  39. Newspoll also shows the difference between Capital and non-Capital disappearing, ignore it, i believe its a flaw in their polling method (flaw demonstrated at last election). And just think about it, does it make sense in any way that ALP and COAL would poll the same in and out of Capitals in any circumstances.
    QLD is a big deal, thats where the last election was lost (NSW has come good).
    WA only state where COAL is ahead, and its not crucial to an election, but if ALP wins the state election they will have a chance to demonstrate that Labor isnt the boogieman (as they traditionally think), so it might help federally.

  40. I must say that it is a real phenomenon. Some of the younger generation I have spoken to are ‘Conservative’

    What has surprised me is the number of people my age and younger who are campaigning for the Liberal candidate in this electorate. He himself is an Old White Man but he has on his campaign team several young people in their 20s and 30s, including people of diverse cultural backgrounds. Given the way the Libs carry on about muslims and kowtow to oldies, this surprises me.

  42. KayJay

    However, the daughter defends her husband by telling me there are plenty more like him “out there”. It is not appropriate for me to inform FD that her husband is stupid.

    You could shake your head dolefully and look regretful. 😉

    It always annoys me when leaders and commentators, after an election, say wtte “the voters are always right”.

  43. CTar1

    Decisions made more to suit politics rather than sane defence planning.

    That’s what comes of putting shallow thinkers like Pyne in charge, although he must be aided and abetted by others in defence.

  44. Victoria:

    You might find this interesting…

    ter a slow trickle of stories over the better part of 2016, the CIA has released a statement claiming that the Russians used cyberwarfare to attack the U.S. election. Russian agents spread disinformation through “fake news” and pro-Donald Trump Twitter bots, attacked Democratic congressional candidates, attempted to hack voter information in various states, and funneled information from hacked emails to WikiLeaks to harm Hillary Clinton and help Trump.

    While the CIA and other intelligence agencies will determine a response to the Russians, it’s the WikiLeaks dump that is the most problematic going forward for journalists and American news consumers. WikiLeaks brands itself as a neutral clearinghouse for whistleblowers, but it has been exposed as a pawnshop willing to fence information to others to attack their political enemies. Going forward, the press and the public should think twice about jumping at the next “data dump” from WikiLeaks.

    http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2016/12/trust-but-dont-verify-how-wikileaks-became-the-worlds-pawnshop/?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=exchange&utm_campaign=FMG_Fusion&utm_term=univision-fusion

  46. Well past ‘FMD”:

    Syrian man who filmed his daughters being sent on suicide mission is killed

    Abu Nimr, also known as Abdurrahman Shadad, is shot by ‘unknown militiamen’

    …

    In two videos, Nimr, a well-known member of JFS, the newly adopted name of al-Nusra, or al-Qaeda in Syria, filmed his wife saying goodbye to eight-year-old Fatimah and seven-year-old Islam.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-abu-nimr-filmed-daughters-being-sent-suicide-mission-damascus-a7496436.html

  49. Victoria
    Thanks for the links to Assange stories. You begin to wonder how much credibility Wikileaks has left?
    Consider, apart from the Clinton Trump interference, that Assange was also left many pieces of data about the financial irregularities of the rich and powerful, but has never released it.

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