BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Fess

    I posted Assange’s latest interview as reported in the Guardian. But His supporters on twitter, are saying that Assange has gone missing and that something has happened to him.

  2. Socrates

    I saw early in the piece that Assange was no friend of social justice and truth. He truly is a piece of unadultered crapola

  3. Ahh – the lazy days of summer, catching up, reading, digesting, re-indulging. For those who missed Victoria’s link (thanks V) to the New Yorker article on WW3 By Mistake, or skipped over it, it is very compelling reading and here it is again.

    For those political historians, here’s your reading list so you can do the hard yards and then drip feed us what we need to know when we need to know it – for those averse to bind links: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/anthologies/2016-12-08/best-books-2016.

    Cheers. More laying about to be done.

  6. lizzie @ #47 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 9:00 am

    KayJay
    Looks as if your daughter’s husband would get on well with Pauline.

    The gentleman concerned is not amenable to reason.
    If he is given verifiable information he responds by saying to stupid me “I don’t know” in a manner which leaves no doubt that he knows better.
    If he votes, he would vote LNP or maybe for Perilous Pauline. However I think he attend a voting booth to get his name crossed. He does not vote.
    I can’t shake my head dolefully, I have a neck problem. Oh, woe is me. Will no one rid me of this troublesome priest?
    Peace, brothers and sisters and members of the lounge lizards reform society. ❤

  7. fess

    ‘Given the way the Libs carry on about muslims and kowtow to oldies, this surprises me.’

    Ah, but if you have a burning need to be accepted, then you identify what you believe is THE establishment and try to become a part of it.

  10. Newspoll showing Liberal vote has collapsed in Queensland ..but not ONE mention of it on ABC news at 6.00am ..6.30am ..7.00am this morning..

    Just imagining if ALP vote had collapsed whilst they were in Govt..

  11. I just heard from an insider that Bishop will be the new PM early in the new year.
    He did not say if it will be via a coup or Malcolm resigning .
    I must add the insider is unreliable, but in these days of “Fake News”,what the heck i will put it out there without any real evidence in the fine tradition of Devine, Massola,Hadley and other fine investigative journalists.

  12. The Silver Bodgie

    I just heard from an insider that Bishop will be the new PM early in the new year.

    She’ll need a whole new wardrobe for that!

  13. Katharine Murphy
    10 mins ·
    For my last reporting assignment for the year I did something I don’t often get time to do: I left the office. I spent a few days with Nick Xenophon and his voters and supporters in mid-December in an effort to decant the contents of their heads: why are they departing from the major parties, what does Xenophon offer that the major parties can’t?
    In the end it wasn’t complicated. They mark Xenophon up because he tries, and because he practices representative politics. He’s connected to his community. If that sounds like a low ball expectation, it kind of is. With the Xenophon cohort, people have more or less given up on the major parties being empathetic, or working to serve their interests. It doesn’t seem at all risky to give someone else a go. In other parts of Australia you’d hear different stories about why people are looking for political alternatives, but that’s the story I heard in South Australia – over and over again.
    It’s a long read, but I hope, an interesting one for people trying to comprehend the movements in the tectonic plates over the past twelve months.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/27/nick-xenophon-rides-on

  14. He did not say if it will be via a coup or Malcolm resigning .

    Surely Malcolm won’t make it easy having waited for so long to get his shot at PM?

  15. Well, JB would work for a while, because the media would paint any attack on her as misogyny.

    Just as the meme “Tony Abbott wasn’t scrutinised enough as Opposition Leader’ translates to ‘therefore we must scrutinise the current Opposition Leader more’, we’ll see ‘Julia Gillard wasn’t given a fair go as PM because she is a woman, therefore we must give Bishop the benefit of the doubt on everything.’

  17. fess

    depends on what Malcolm is aiming for. If he just wants to tick “been PM, won an election” off his bucket list, he might be willing.

  18. I don’t think Kristina Kenneally will be giving Madam Asbestos an easy run. What’s good for the goose would be good for the gander.

  19. Malcolm will not go willingly. He will need to be pushed. He hasn’t invested so much blood and treasure to step aside graciously. He is no John Key. In many ways.

  20. I just heard from an insider that Bishop will be the new PM early in the new year. Well, if true, I hope she gets what she and her colleagues gave Julia, but of course she’ll be given a free pass.

    And what an idiotic comment from her about illegal Israeli settlements.

  21. These supporters believe he was forceably removed from the Ecuadorian Embassy and is being held somewhere against his will

    The delusion runs strong with Assange groupies.

  22. guytaur @ #21 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 7:39 am

    Great Newspoll results for progressives
    Hanson rise is a split from right wing voters who would never vote for a progressive party in a pink fit.
    Its a sign of more division on the right and more proof that appeasment does not work as the LNP loses votes to the right

    Weren’t the ON preferences about 50-50?

  24. lizzie @ #42 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 8:48 am

    KayJay

    However, the daughter defends her husband by telling me there are plenty more like him “out there”. It is not appropriate for me to inform FD that her husband is stupid.

    You could shake your head dolefully and look regretful. 😉
    It always annoys me when leaders and commentators, after an election, say wtte “the voters are always right”.

    I would say a voter is never wrong.

    Everyone has their own reason for how they vote.

    That doesn’t necessarily mean the result is the right one or in the best interests of the society in general.

  25. daretotread @ #30 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 8:13 am

    Bemused
    Genuine thanks for accurately and fairly summarising my position re Clinton.
    Much appreciated. Taking a contrary position is very hard and especially hard when people through ignorance or stupidity or nastiness deliberately misunderstand.

    Happy to do so.
    It was a rather unpleasant outbreak of lying, misrepresentation and contempt for working people which I was surprised others didn’t pick up on.

  27. Fake stories supporting Trump, Clinton with the social and old school news channels under her control, and people think Wikileaks was the problem ?
    Wikileaks have not been shown to have released fake stories, and they havent been shown to be controlled by third parties.
    The people who dislike wikileaks are those who afraid of the truth, or think they should be allowed to control it.
    The problem with the media today, is that for 50 years people have been taught to trust and believe whatever the mass media preach to them, and those with power used that to influence people for political and commercial reasons.
    Now social media is the mass media, and the elites are losing their ability to manipulate society, they are concerned because power is shifting to random internet people that arent them.
    There is an obvious fix, and it doesnt involve censorship or control, simply teach to ask questions, to not believe everything they read.
    The success of democracy depends on individuals making their own judgement without being unduly coerced by a minority. (social media or old school media)

  30. Weren’t the ON preferences about 50-50?

    That’s what I recall, maybe slightly favouring the Coalition but not by much. I think many One Nation supporters like Labor social and welfare policies, at least for nice respectable people like themselves, but don’t like immigration and don’t like… (insert offensive epithets for outgroups).

  31. markjs @ #60 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 9:49 am

    Newspoll showing Liberal vote has collapsed in Queensland ..but not ONE mention of it on ABC news at 6.00am ..6.30am ..7.00am this morning..
    Just imagining if ALP vote had collapsed whilst they were in Govt..

    ABC has now caught up and it is getting good coverage on News Radio. I will be surprised if it is not covered elsewhere.

  33. Vic

    These supporters believe he was forceably removed from the Ecuadorian Embassy

    If he was ‘removed’ only the Ecuadorians themselves could do that (possible as they would be well sick of him by now).

    If he did get thrown the Met (still onsite watching) would have grabbed him and we would hear about it very quickly.

  34. Ctar1

    Not according to the deluded Assange groupies. Apparently, there was a chemical scare recently at Heathrow. This was merely a cover to whisk Assange out of London!

  35. Bug1,
    The people who dislike wikileaks are those who afraid of the truth, or think they should be allowed to control it.

    No. I dislike Wikileaks because Julian Asssange is using his good idea-a workaround of normal information channels-as a propaganda tool every bit as devious and misleading as those he seeks to piously criticise.

    For example, he is said to have just as much information about the Republican Party as he had about the Democrats. However, did you see it released in the POTUS election campaign to discredit them? No way!

    Also, he has information about the wealthiest individuals in America and the world. Which likely includes Trump. Did you see that released by Assange during the election? Nope, nope, nope.

    So while the initial inspiration to start Wikileaks may have been noble, since that time it has become well and truly bent out of shape by it’s perverse, eccentric founder.

  36. Bug1
    The problem with wikileaks was the attempt to manipulate the election through strategic timing of leaks against Clinton. Russian involvement is another – but separate – issue.

  37. c@tmomma @ #85 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 10:47 am

    Bug1,
    The people who dislike wikileaks are those who afraid of the truth, or think they should be allowed to control it.
    So while the initial inspiration to start Wikileaks may have been noble, since that time it has become well and truly bent out of shape by it’s perverse, eccentric founder.

    I agree, very well said.

  38. I prefer to support the apparently incorruptible aims of this group(hint: maybe it’s because they aren’t publicity whores just normal noble individuals):

    “Rationality seems to have fallen out of vogue,” said Brooke Binkowski, Snopes’s managing editor. “People don’t know what to believe anymore. Everything is really strange right now.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/25/technology/for-fact-checking-website-snopes-a-bigger-role-brings-more-attacks.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

  39. This was merely a cover to whisk Assange out of London!

    What a hoot! These people are crazy paranoid. It reminds me of back in the day they were so insistent Assange would be nabbed by the Yanks if he was deported to Sweden to face those rape charges.

  40. Another great quote from the Snopes article:

    “It used to be that if you got too far from the mainstream, you were shunned for being a little nutty,” she said. “Now there is so much nutty going around that it’s socially acceptable to embrace wild accusations. No one is embarrassed by anything anymore.”

  41. BIS

    Greens preferences flow to Labor in a much higher percentage. So the split on the progressive side isless than with the conservatives

  42. Vic / ‘fess

    If the Americans were ‘snatching’ him why would they bother with Heathrow when they’ve got ‘use’ agreements for RAF Air bases?

  46. confessions @ #89 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 10:52 am

    This was merely a cover to whisk Assange out of London!

    What a hoot! These people are crazy paranoid. It reminds me of back in the day they were so insistent Assange would be nabbed by the Yanks if he was deported to Sweden to face those rape charges.

    I was living in the UK when this situation broke and the one thing that I never understood is how you could extradite someone for questioning.

    Extradition when you have evidence a crime has been committed and charges have been laid, fine, but extradition without charges seemed very strange.

    Coming to Assange was always the logical approach.

    Maybe there is some quirk in the Swedish legal system that I’m missing.

  49. Dr Catherine Rickwood, who specialises in researching people who are 50-plus, said a third of Australia’s population were over 50 and 80 per cent were Baby Boomers.

    “If you just focus on the Baby Boomers, I think it is fair to say they are technology literate and are willing to learn and adjust. And they are willing to work,” Dr Rickwood said.

    “But by and large, workplaces look to the over-50s to be moving out of the workplace.”

    Dr Rickwood, who is founder and chief executive of Three Sisters Group, said there were big opportunities for intergenerational job-sharing arrangements between people over 50 and younger workers starting families.

    Without human resources policies targeting the retention and recruitment of people over 50, the problem of ageism was unlikely to be properly addressed.

    There are policies on inclusiveness of people with disabilities and on gender equity, but there is virtually nothing to address inclusiveness of people over 50.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/over50s-can-adapt-to-new-jobs-and-new-technology-new-research-20161215-gtbupk.html

  50. ‘Maybe there is some quirk in the Swedish legal system that I’m missing.’

    Yes; they only ask you questions if they intend to charge you, so it’s the equivalent of being extradited to face charges.

    Of course, a long, exhaustive legal process – unless you want to believe that absolutely everyone involved was corrupt – covered all the bases.

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