BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).

bt2019-2016-12-21

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. “I just heard from an insider that Bishop will be the new PM early in the new year.
    He did not say if it will be via a coup or Malcolm resigning .”

    It sounds unlikely given we have just had an election, but put it together with the Rumour that Bernardi’s conservatives are considering splitting, then perhaps they are 1) trying to appease the conservative faction, and 2) prepare for a possible early election if they do split.
    (COAL havent been ahead in any poll since election will be party of the justification)

  2. At last some good news for bank customers.

    Real time payments overhaul coming in 2017

    Sometime in 2017, a new system will be switched on that has the potential to transform how you pay for everything from second-hand goods on Gumtree.com to motorway tolls.

    It will remove the clumsy process that requires you to enter BSB and account numbers when wiring money to a friend or business.

    The person being paid will no longer have to wait up to three days day for money to arrive in their account.

    This $1 billion piece of infrastructure, with the uncatchy name of the new payments platform, goes live in the second half of the year.

    While it has received little public attention so far, the system’s launch is a sign of Australia’s system of digital money and payments finally catching up with, and surpassing that of many other countries.

    Australians have embraced electronic payments, but the infrastructure that sits behind some of these systems lags that of other countries.

    The RBA, which pushed the banks to develop and fund the NPP, said in 2012 that Australia’s system of payments between bank accounts looked “a bit dated,” lagging less developed nations such as Mexico.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/real-time-payments-overhaul-coming-in-2017-20161206-gt50sv.html

  3. C@Tmomma, i havent read of anyone having evidence that Wikileaks have with-held information, and they deny it.
    If a source had information that they wanted released, and wikileaks was sitting on it, why wouldnt they just find another way to release it ?
    Such stories are the typical attacks you would expect from old elites that have everything to lose and nothing to gain from truth and accountability.

  4. BiS

    I was living in the UK when this situation broke and the one thing that I never understood is how you could extradite someone for questioning.

    The extradition agreement between most EU countries makes it the equivalent of extraditing someone from Queanbeyan to Canberra.

  5. Bug1,
    From a very reputable source about your assertion that Wikileaks held data about the Republican Party:

    Fourth, although the Russians also sought to break into the Republican National Committee computers, their failure to do so was described by The Wall Street Journal as “a much less aggressive and much less persistent effort.” The intelligence that’s been made public indicates Democrats faced a much more formidable online assault, and whatever Russian intelligence may have gathered from Republican operations was never leaked in an effort to inflict political damage.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/12/russia-hacking-election/511379/?utm_source=atltw

    I guess the only mistake I made was to assert Wikileaks had it too. I don’t think, under the circumstances, that was an unreasonable assumption to make and may still be true considering Wikileaks was the conduit for the Russian-obtained Democrat Party and DNC leaks.

  6. Bug1

    Assange has said quite openly in the past that he with holds information, particularly where he feels he can use it to protect himself.

  7. Here we go…

    ‘WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange claims he has “insurance” files on media mogul Rupert Murdoch that will be released if “something happens” to him.’

    ‘…Mr Assange said WikiLeaks had “504 US embassy cables on one broadcasting organisation” and “cables on Murdoch and News Corp”, without going into more detail on what they contained.

    “If something happens to me or to WikiLeaks, ‘insurance’ files will be released,” Mr Assange was cited as saying.’

    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/wikileaks-has-rupert-murdoch-insurance-files-20110113-19pix.html

  8. Zoomster

    Any fair minded person who believes in natural justice will be able to follow the following logic re Assange:
    1. Being a dickhead, even a right wing Trump supporting Dickhead is not a crime
    2. Even if he were charged,with the four offences for which he is accused Swedish conviction rates for rape run at 13%
    3. Two charges have now expired because they did not question him in time
    4. Even if tried and convicted one would recognise that his offences were at the lower end of sexual assault – say compared with aggravated violent gang rape. Not using a condom and seeking a quickie from a sleeping partner while not to be condoned are NOT in the same league as gang rape. There are probably bloggers on this site who if they examine their could may well have committed just such a crime in their youth, or will have a friend or relative who has committed such a crime.
    5. One might anticipate his penalty would be no more than the maximum penalty applied already in Sweden for a similar crime. Now in Sweden the penalty for GANG RAPE is just 4 years, and four minors convicted of such an offence received a fine of just $8,500. Using this as a reasonable bench mark it may be expected that the penalty for Assange’s crime if convicted might well be about 1 years jail a fine of say $10,000 or even less. with two separate incidents his actual sentence would have been about 2 years at maximum and probably would have been much much less – perhaps a large fine and a “stay away” order.
    6. While house arrest is not as severe a punishment as jail, it is nevertheless a significant punishment and 4 years house arrest perhaps equates to 1-2 years jail.
    7. It is therefore probable that even if tried and convicted any just would NOW deem that Assange has already completed sufficient houser arrest time to allow him to be dismissed.
    8. Every month that Assange remains in house arrest is a denial of civil liberties and tends to support his claim that it was a political set up.

    I can see no rational reason why Sweden did NOT three years ago visit him, interview him and either charge him or not. Their failure to take this blindingly obvious step, fuels paranoia and for me indicates that Assange’s fears have justification.

  9. zoomster @ #107 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 11:49 am

    Here we go…
    ‘WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange claims he has “insurance” files on media mogul Rupert Murdoch that will be released if “something happens” to him.’
    ‘…Mr Assange said WikiLeaks had “504 US embassy cables on one broadcasting organisation” and “cables on Murdoch and News Corp”, without going into more detail on what they contained.
    “If something happens to me or to WikiLeaks, ‘insurance’ files will be released,” Mr Assange was cited as saying.’
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/wikileaks-has-rupert-murdoch-insurance-files-20110113-19pix.html

    And it may just be bluff. A bit like Saddam Hussein wanting to let the Iranians think he had weapons of mass destruction. That worked well.

  10. bug1 @ #103 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 11:29 am

    C@Tmomma, i havent read of anyone having evidence that Wikileaks have with-held information, and they deny it.
    If a source had information that they wanted released, and wikileaks was sitting on it, why wouldnt they just find another way to release it ?
    Such stories are the typical attacks you would expect from old elites that have everything to lose and nothing to gain from truth and accountability.

    I am no particular fan of Assange, but absence of any factual basis does not stop people here attacking him. They just make shit up like was happening last night.

  11. And another one!

    The Royle Family star Liz Smith has died at the age of 95, a spokeswoman for her family said.

    The actor, best known for her role as “Nana” Norma Speakman in the hit BBC comedy The Royle Family, died on Christmas Eve.

    The Lincolnshire-born mother-of-two, real name Betty Gleadle, starred in the sitcom for its three series from 1998 to 2000 and again in the 2006 special The Queen of Sheba, which told the story of her character’s death.

    Some of her other famous roles included as dopey Letitia Cropley in village comedy The Vicar of Dibley, fronted by Dawn French, as Annie Brandon in I Didn’t Know You Cared, as Bette and Aunt Bell in 2point4 Children, and as Zillah in Lark Rise to Candleford.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/dec/26/the-royle-family-actress-liz-smith-has-died-aged-95-a-spokeswoman-for-her?CMP=fb_gu

  12. dtt

    1. Who said it was?

    2 through to 5. So what?

    6 to 7. Choosing not to leave a particular building is not house arrest. He is free to leave whenever he wants.

    8. Or he is delusional and paranoid.

  13. C@Tmomma; If the source had info on both Demcrats and Republicans, and they had a pro-Trump agenda why would they release the dirt they had on Trump to a pro-transparency group such as Wikileaks, there is risk, but not reward in doing so.

    Regarding my comments on wikileaks not sitting on leaks, i meant they dont sit on information that they think is in public best interest. I believe there has been information redacted or withheld in the leaks, because they didnt think it was appropriate to release (maybe for security reasons?), which i suspect is what the insurance files are.

    Here is a relevant statement from wikileaks;
    “We publish material given to us if it is of political, diplomatic, historical or ethical importance and which has not been published elsewhere. When we have material that fulfills this criteria, we publish. We had information that fit our editorial criteria which related to the Sanders and Clinton campaign (DNC Leaks) and the Clinton political campaign and Foundation (Podesta Emails). No-one disputes the public importance of these publications. It would be unconscionable for WikiLeaks to withhold such an archive from the public during an election.
    At the same time, we cannot publish what we do not have. To date, we have not received information on Donald Trump’s campaign, or Jill Stein’s campaign, or Gary Johnson’s campaign or any of the other candidates that fufills our stated editorial criteria. As a result of publishing Clinton’s cables and indexing her emails we are seen as domain experts on Clinton archives. So it is natural that Clinton sources come to us.
    We publish as fast as our resources will allow and as fast as the public can absorb it.
    That is our commitment to ourselves, to our sources, and to the public.”
    https://wikileaks.org/Assange-Statement-on-the-US-Election.html

  14. Assange under ‘house arrest’?

    So Assange has some extra rights that others don’t have?

    His supporters seem to believe he has the right to try and convict himself and then decide where and how he will be imprisoned?

  15. Zoomster, is he leaves its highly likely that his human rights will be further violated.

    He can leave in a physical sense, its its an unreasonable expectation from both a human and legal point of view.

  16. I don’t know the first thing about Swedish law. One thing I do know is that it is illegal to skip bail under English law. Assange was granted bail and skipped it by holing up in the Ecuadorian Embassy. A lot of people lost a lot of money – including some who could ill afford it – when he skipped bail and did the bail deposit (which was funded by donations from very well meaning and honest and honourable people).

  17. DTT

    You have summed up my belief of the stupidity of the Swedish prosecution process used in the particular case of Assange.

    Just note Assange has recently been interviewd at the Ecuadorian Embassy.

    The question is why has the extradition order not been lifted?
    The questioning has occurred. Assange would have to face a UK co urt for breaching orders of a court over that order. However that would be it

    UNLESS of coutse Swedish prosecutors go ahead with charges.

    I agree with posters about the selective leaking during the US election.
    Proving to the world what Aussies learnt about Assange politics from the 2013 e lection

    However The behaviour of the Swedish prosecutors raises more questions. If you are after justice for the victims it doesn’t look like the Swedish prosecutors have failed in that endeavor

  18. So, let me get this straight..

    We’re getting a conservo-whacko party. And Bishop will be PM.
    And we’re going to get an early election next year.

    Did I hear that right?
    Bring it on 🙂

  19. cud chewer @ #120 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    So, let me get this straight..
    We’re getting a conservo-whacko party. And Bishop will be PM.
    And we’re going to get an early election next year.
    Did I hear that right?
    Bring it on 🙂

    It will be just fascinating.
    I cannot wait to see some here twist any ALP attack on Lib policy into a misandrist attack on Bishop. Well to be consistent they would have to, wouldn’t they? 😆

  20. Bug1

    ‘He can leave in a physical sense, its its an unreasonable expectation from both a human and legal point of view.’

    No, it isn’t. From the ‘human view’, he is protected from further extradition by EU law. From the legal point of view, he has had extensive opportunities to put his various fears and arguments before British courts, which have examined them and still decided he should go to Sweden.

    It’s a bit sad that the reputations of two legal systems, those of Britain and Sweden, have been thrown overboard in the scramble to justify behaviour that, in any almost any other human being the same posters would be condemning.

  21. Bug1
    “Now social media is the mass media, and the elites are losing their ability to manipulate society, they are concerned because power is shifting to random internet people that arent them.”

    I am not one of the “elites” but I think the ability of social media to influence society has already been realised and has simply led to the formation of a new set of elites. I think it is plain that when social media moguls can make billions out of carefully targetted ads they are elites. The methods used to target ads and tailored “news” at individuals have never been more sophisticated. All political parties and many corporate interests too clearly use it.

    In this context to suggest that people like Assange, who speak of freedom but clearly follow their own political agendas, represent free debate, is niaive. He is like a new age journalist, but with no rules on ethics, conflicts of interest, or checking sources. He wants the power, but not the accountability.

    I have said before that Assange has, by his own admission, sat on a lot of sensitive financial data about wealthy individuals. Why? Who gets to decide what he treats as “insurance” and what he exposes? To illustrate the absence of pursuit of some categories, take a look at how little Wikileaks has released on corporations:
    https://wikileaks.org/+-Corporations-+.html
    Also nothing about the US oil&gas industry, Russia or the campaign against climate science anywhere. Really? No secrets? So I am not against the concept of Wikileaks, but I am against the selectivity, and I think it suggests biases on Assange’s part.

  22. Zoomster

    I agree with the UN definition of detention. Its one that applies to refugees in the prison island hell holes as well.

    So yes its four years of detention no matter how you dislike this fact

  23. Zoomster.

    Think about it. After a month of Assange being holed up in the Embassy it was obvious impasse had occurred.

    Four years later the Swedes questioned Assange in the Ecuadorian Embassy. Why not after the gfirsyt month? Politics is the answer. Not justice for the victims. It may have only been thenpride of the prosecutor but it was certainly pride. The questioning has happened outside of Sweden after much delay.

    Justice delayed is justice denied. So its obvious the Sedes prosecution has failed to seek justice but has instead done politics

  24. “From the legal point of view, he has had extensive opportunities to put his various fears and arguments before British courts, which have examined them and still decided he should go to Sweden.”
    The United Nations disagree with you
    ‘The United Nations has rejected a UK appeal against its previous ruling in favor of Julian Assange as “inadmissible,” thus requiring both London and Stockholm to end the WikiLeaks founder’s “arbitrary detention.” ‘
    https://www.rt.com/news/368746-un-ruling-free-assange/

  25. Further on Assange, I do not know enough detail on the rape charges to know if his legal pursuit is legitimate or not. It may not be.

    But two wrongs do not make a right. This article gives further detail on unethical aspects of Assange leaks, including releasing details of individuals who had committed no crime, in some cases including private medical records.
    http://www.ifla.org/publications/what-is-the-effect-of-wikileaks-for-freedom-of-information

    So Yes, Assange is persecuted and Yes, he is a very naughty boy.

  26. guytaur @ #129 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 12:28 pm

    Zoomster
    I agree with the UN definition of detention. Its one that applies to refugees in the prison island hell holes as well.
    So yes its four years of detention no matter how you dislike this fact

    By the same reasoning, someone who escapes from prison and goes into hiding is in unlawful detention. And if they remain hidden for years then that is even more egregious.

    I repeat my earlier post. Assange is where he is because he breached English bail conditions, NOT because Sweden has not resolved the allegations against him. If Sweden dropped its claims tomorrow, Assange will still have to answer for skipping bail.

  27. Victoria;
    I consider myself a social libertarian, so socially progressive, but also care about libertarian issues. I was in the ALP, but its too authoritarian for me.
    To me Assange is one of the few people who has managed to hold various powerful governments to account for their actions, so he gets my admiration for that.
    I also respect his courage and determination, not many people could cope with whats been thrown at him without throwing in the towel.
    Ironically i think he would be the success he is without these attempts to persecute him, i dont know anywhere safer for him than an embassy (physically), and i imagine while he is confined like that it helps to occupy his mind with something to stay sane.

  28. Bug1

    ‘The United Nations has rejected a UK appeal against its previous ruling in favor of Julian Assange as “inadmissible,” thus requiring both London and Stockholm to end the WikiLeaks founder’s “arbitrary detention.” ‘
    https://www.rt.com/news/368746-un-ruling-free-assange/

    I notice that ‘rt’ doesn’t mention that the UN Working Panel decision is not legally binding.

    ‘rt’ is, of course, a Russian Govt broadcaster.

  29. TPOF

    Its not the bail conditions. Just as its not the fact that refugees are on am island. The UN has been clear in its ruling. A ruling that is fact. Your view does not change the fact of that rulinfg. No matter how much you dislike the fact.

    Your its usual bail conditions is obvious BS as we don’t get UN rulings on average bail conditions

  30. 2 weeks after the alleged rape the women bought charges after they had swapped notes.
    The first prosecutor said there was no case, Assange left Sweden, so a second prosecutor was assigned who wanted to extradite Assange to Sweden to answer questions. Assange claimed the yanks wanted to rendition him to Guantanamo Bay so he holed up in the Equadorian Embassy.

    I am shocked that he supports Trump and Putin, as they strike me as being the antithesis of free speech

  31. CTar1;
    I could go and find a link to the official ruling if you really want me to, but blaming the Russians… seriously… i expect better from people who post here.

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