The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.
Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).
CTar1
Bingo!
Bug1
FMD.
What I suggested was that a Russian Govt press site that you linked was not exactly ‘free press’. Is that blaming?
I’m no UN bagger, because it does important non-political work and is a critically important outlet for peaceful resolution or at least conflict diminution in a number of cases which could spiral terribly. But citing what the UN says on anything doesn’t do it for me.
The effectiveness of the criticism of the UN by the right – the Trumps and Bernardis of the world – is largely built on the self-evident hypocrisy of the UN. An organisation that patently avoids criticising human rights abuse if it upsets power broker countries, like Russia or China, and has a membership on important committees of gross human rights abusers and war crimes perpetrators really plays a weak hand.
Assange is not brave. And he’s not a hero. He is an obsessive narcissist and Putin, who is a brilliant strategist, has played him like a violin.
Vic:
Absolutely. Assange took the coward’s way out.
TPOF
I have not claimed Assange is brave. Like you I agree his selective leaking destroys his credibility as a “freedom fighter”
Al Jazeera Journalists have been much more inspiring. However the UN ruling is quite clear.
Yes I agree not being uniform in those standards makes the UN ripe for attack from the right. Thats why though I despise how Assange has cloaked himself in “Freedom Fighter” to pursue his political agenda I point out the facts.
I am amazed at the certainty in the opinions of all the amateur psychologist on PB.
None have ever met their subject but they are quite sure they have made an accurate psychological assessment.
“Year in review: denialism and demonisation in an anus horribilis” I like the Crikey headline from Bernard Keane.Sounds like he’s calling the Fibs arseholes.
Donald Trump dismisses the United Nations as a ‘club’ for people to ‘have a good time’
US President-elect also claims he has brought ‘hope’ to the world
He wrote: “The United Nations has such great potential but right now it is just a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time. So sad!”
“The world was gloomy before I won — there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly 10 per cent and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!” he tweeted.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-united-nations-club-have-good-time-barack-obama-israel-settlements-a7496786.html
To be fair Bemused I think most people make that sort of assessment all the time. Remaining open minded for most of us just means we are prepared the change our assessment with more information.
kevjohnno @ #159 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 1:22 pm
I am no fan of Assange although I have admired people such as Chelsea Manning who have released material through Wikileaks which alerted the world to things that needed to be made known. So I suppose I like the concept of Wikileaks.
Calling Assange, or anyone else that has put their life on the line to try and make the world a better place is just a terrible thing for any of you to say.
Even more so because you claim he is biased and dont have the courage to admit your own bias.
(Calling Assange, or anyone else that has put their life on the line a coward for trying to make the world a better place is just a terrible thing for any of you to say.)
Assange is not brave. And he’s not a hero. He is an obsessive narcissist and Putin, who is a brilliant strategist, has played him like a violin.
Substitute ‘Trump’ for ‘Assange’ and you are in same, same territory.
Only difference is Trump and his cabal were smart enough to play on in the political field and win. Assange failed miserably at his attempt to get into the Australian Senate.
Also call my assessment of Assange whatever the hell you want. ‘Pop Psychology’. ‘Ill-informed’. Or whatever. I am not deterred by snide asides. Anyway I prefer ‘Women’s Intuition’. 🙂
I can not understand people’s mindset to have the Turnbull libs still doing so well. They could probably eliminate the pension and privatise Medicare and it still would not make much difference to the polls.
I’m not against the concept but remain cynical of the motivation of most leakers and whistleblowers and of groups like WikiLeaks who seek to gather the info from these leakers and control what & when is released. Any organisation which obtains information and chooses to stage the timing & type of information release to further the political views of the people running the organisation is one I do not trust.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/27/coalition-loses-ground-with-men-and-older-voters-newspoll-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw This is bad news for Turnbull as the over 50s are deserting him too.
Bug1
I doubt Assange is trying to make the world a better place.
Well said, Father Bower.
I do not think you need to have a degree in psychology to observe an unhealthy mind.
As for bias yes, like every human, I have many. I am pro democracy, workers rights, egalitarianism and support those who fight for those things. I have concerns about Clinton, but I cannot fathom how Assange can care about democracy and side with Putin or Trump. It’s a contradiction. I’m off shopping.
You can’t honestly believe this!
Cupidstunt
The pension changes is the issue. People do not like money being taken from their pockets.
Sydney radio has been really hot on it this morning.
Socrates:
This is what Assange said about Trump’s Administration:
http://www.inquisitr.com/3825201/clinton-news-update-julian-assange-continues-attack-on-hillary/
Setting aside the silly description of ignorant, dishonest and proven-incapable people like Sarah Palin as merely idiosyncratic (seriously?!), does he really believe that wealthy elites in America have had no influence over the country’s governing body?
Large businesses love high immigration because it is a lazy way to increase their profits without having to create higher quality products. Politicians love high immigration because it is a lazy way to achieve nominal economic growth without increasing real per capita output, without increasing environmental sustainability and resilience, without addressing infrastructure and service needs, and without increasing the amount and quality of jobs relative to the desires of job-seekers. There are excellent left-wing reasons to aim to stabilize Australia’s population at or somewhat below its current level. Ethical concerns for the needs of foreigners are best addressed by skewing our immigration intake towards refugee and humanitarian visas, and cutting the skilled intake (which we don’t need in great quantities because we can and should be training skilled people locally).
How about a total immigration intake of no more than 100,000 people per year, and 70,000 of those would be refugee or humanitarian visas, and 30,000 would be a combination of skilled visas and family reunion visas?
mtbw @ #171 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:02 pm
And I suggest the reaction is only just starting.
Unless you are his friend, relative, romantic partner, or business associate, why could you care what his character is like? What matters is that accurate information would otherwise have been secret is now being debated. The information was being kept secret to avoid accountability and embarrassment for powerful people. That is not a good enough reason for secrecy. The fact that the releases of information are selective is not a compelling argument against publicising the information. Some information that is accurate and relevant to public policy is better than none.
Freedom of Speech – Andrew Bolt version:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/dec/27/former-news-corp-australia-reporter-went-through-hell-after-andrew-bolt-attacked-her-pell-story
Nicholas
Because all his boosters keep going on about it. Or did you miss that? Have you criticised people who have defended him for his bravery and heroism?
tpof @ #177 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:21 pm
Actually, on PB, the reverse is true.
His detractors are the ones who are vocal in denouncing him.
Bemused
Whether it is fair or not the people are screaming.
They are all over it like a rash.
One women was complaining that she had another property apart from her own home and may not be able to afford it any more poor petal!
mtbw @ #171 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:02 pm
There are both psychological and practical reasons for people not liking money being taken from their pockets. Psychologically, it’s called the endowment effect. Practically, it is because people have made long term decisions and plans based on a predictable income stream. A lot of those people, who have been totally honest and upfront with the Government about extra sources of income, are suddenly screwed very seriously. And to make it worse, they have gotten the leaners/takers treatment from this government. I just hope they all voted for the Coalition.
Freedom of Speech – Andrew Bolt version:
Or, the freedom of the powerful to speak their mind unfettered.
bemused @ #178 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:22 pm
Some of us have a life outside PB.
Alan Moir’s latest:
tpof @ #182 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:27 pm
Yes, I do. And Assange occupies very little of my attention. I really couldn’t give a toss about him.
Bemused
Why then comment on other peoples comments on him?
Jacqui Lambie’s onto the Pension cuts:
There will be backtracking and backflips. 🙂
I just caught up with this tweet from Mark Dreyfus………
Mark Dreyfus
Mark Dreyfus – Verified account @markdreyfusQCMP
The Bell Group mess draws in another minister – the Turnbull government is up to its knees in unanswered questions http://bit.ly/2i18AiC
The Julie Bishop for PM thing is going the rounds yet again. I am happy to be proved wrong, but I doubt she will ever lead the Liberals as PM for at least three reasons:
1. Julie has shown to be a competent FM but other challenges have seemed a bit hard for her.
2. She is from WA and it is a long time since a PM was from WA
3. She is a woman
The second and third reasons are why the Liberals will discount her, while the first is the one which really matters. I doubt she has the skill/acumen/presence/political touch for the job. My observation of her, is that when it gets tough going, she adopts her “I will scratch your eyes out” demeanour. He famous “cat call” to FPJG says it all for me about her.
ctar1 @ #185 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:40 pm
I am commenting on the bizarreness of some of the comments here.
Comments made with amazing conviction in the absence of solid evidence.
Yes, I probably do it too on occasions and am not surprised if someone picks me up.
victoria @ #187 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:48 pm
And Victoria, that is why I don’t ignore your posts. Good one!
Bemused – Scroll. It’s not your job to prove ‘guidance’ to commenters.
Robert Manne on Malcolm Turnbull:
Too true.
Vic,
Mark Dreyfus is looking to go on next year as he went this year. 🙂
One thing I have found interesting is that, in all the jobs for the LNP/Liberal/Nationals boys and girls that Brandis and Turnbull have found for their confreres, none yet appears to have been found for Mal Brough.
I know that Malcolm almost invented the Internet so is that where the term Malware came from ?
I have some bulbs to commemorate a dear friend who died seven years ago and is sadly missed.
Last year I had three flowers (see the gravatar).
This year about fifteen lilies. With any luck the wind will not blow the pods off the 1.3 meter tall stems.
Nothing to do with current political posts. Just what interest me.:sad:
ctar1 @ #191 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 2:53 pm
Oh sorry, I didn’t realise you had monopoly rights on ‘guidance’ but thank you for that piece of ‘guidance’.
I actually do scroll, it is how I move from comment to comment and occasionally back to an earlier comment. But your ‘guidance’ is really appreciated.
You may not have appreciated the context of my remark to Victoria but it related back to an exchange where she suggested I ignore her comments and I acknowledged she sometimes made very good ones that I wouldn’t want to miss. That was an example.
Do keep on providing ‘guidance’, I am sure I am not alone in appreciating it.
Vic
Posted today I notice.
Do Labor Party shadow ministers not ‘work’ on public holidays?
ctar1 @ #198 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 3:20 pm
I believe today is a public holiday.
Or Sophie.