BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

The Australian has produced two tranches of Newspoll quarterly breakdowns over the past two days, the first being the all-important (from BludgerTrack’s perspective) state breakdowns, followed by breakdowns by age and gender, all of which is derived from the entirety of Newspoll’s surveying from October to December. Together with last week’s Essential Research result, this constitutes the final piece in the BludgerTrack puzzle for the year. The result finds further evidence of momentum for One Nation, who have ended the year only two points shy of the Greens. The Newspoll breakdowns have contributed to an improvement for the Coalition in Victoria, where they gain a seat on the projection, relative to Western Australia and South Australia, where they lose one apiece.

Also from Essential Research this week has been state voting intention results for the mainland states, which, like the Newspoll breakdowns, are compiled from polling conducted through the last three months of the year. I’ll have more to say about these as Newspoll unrolls its own state polling over the coming weeks (I hope).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,820 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  2. Bemused

    You may not have appreciated the context of my remark to Victoria but it related back to an exchange where she suggested I ignore her comments and I acknowledged she sometimes made very good ones that I wouldn’t want to miss. That was an example.

    After you have been rude, you crawl back with a condescending ‘compliment’ to defend yourself. CTar1 is pointing out what many of us feel.

  3. lizzie @ #202 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 3:37 pm

    Bemused

    You may not have appreciated the context of my remark to Victoria but it related back to an exchange where she suggested I ignore her comments and I acknowledged she sometimes made very good ones that I wouldn’t want to miss. That was an example.

    After you have been rude, you crawl back with a condescending ‘compliment’ to defend yourself. CTar1 is pointing out what many of us feel.

    It was not condescending, it was sincere. Victoria does post some good stuff which I appreciate.
    CTar1 was actually doing what he accused me of.

  4. Oh, I see this is a public holiday because Xmas was on a Sunday.

    I should have done a normal Sunday lunch on Sunday and done XMAS lunch today! It would have been a lot easier on the pocket judging by the prices at the local Woolworths this morning.

  5. bug1 @ #161 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 1:27 pm

    Calling Assange, or anyone else that has put their life on the line to try and make the world a better place is just a terrible thing for any of you to say.
    Even more so because you claim he is biased and dont have the courage to admit your own bias.

    Bug I think your confusing the idea behind Wikileaks and Assange in the beginning and what they have become.

  8. Lizzie:

    I keep saying this, but honestly there is no point drawing attention to Bemused’s ongoing hypocrisy and abusiveness. If people just ignored him and refused to engage he would either have to change his behaviour or find another sandpit to play in where his tactics draw responses.

  10. From wayback upthread:

    Gottliebsen giving Pyne a serve this morning –
    Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter project is now in big trouble.

    Gottliebsen is really not someone to be taken seriously when he comments on defense matters. Look at his sources? APA?? Goon and Kopp are still shitty that their idea of upgrading the F111 wasn’t followed up on.

    People hang a lot of crap on the F35. But, bottom line it will do M1.6, combat loaded, and range out to a practical radius of over 700nm . The sensors (like radar) actually work now just about as reliably as any in the current US fleet.

    Problem is number of AA shots carried in full stealth. 4 at the moment, slated to go to 6 in a few years, and its debatable just how much actual practical difference in a combat situation a couple of externally slung IR missiles will make to stealth effectiveness ? And much work going into smaller AA “hittiles” around half the length of AIM120 but with same range.

    Would have been MUCH better if they had NOT tried to replace the Harrier in the same program and avoided the design compromises. However…..
    Its no baby seal.

  11. ctar1 @ #204 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    Oh, I see this is a public holiday because Xmas was on a Sunday.
    I should have done a normal Sunday lunch on Sunday and done XMAS lunch today! It would have been a lot easier on the pocket judging by the prices at the local Woolworths this morning.

    There was probably more awareness in Victoria because the State Govt didn’t initially make it a public holiday but then changed their mind in the face of vocal objections.

  12. imacca @ #210 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 3:50 pm

    From wayback upthread:

    Gottliebsen giving Pyne a serve this morning –
    Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter project is now in big trouble.

    Gottliebsen is really not someone to be taken seriously when he comments on defense matters. Look at his sources? APA?? Goon and Kopp are still shitty that their idea of upgrading the F111 wasn’t followed up on.
    People hang a lot of crap on the F35. But, bottom line it will do M1.6, combat loaded, and range out to a practical radius of over 700nm . The sensors (like radar) actually work now just about as reliably as any in the current US fleet.
    Problem is number of AA shots carried in full stealth. 4 at the moment, slated to go to 6 in a few years, and its debatable just how much actual practical difference in a combat situation a couple of externally slung IR missiles will make to stealth effectiveness ? And much work going into smaller AA “hittiles” around half the length of AIM120 but with same range.
    Would have been MUCH better if they had NOT tried to replace the Harrier in the same program and avoided the design compromises. However…..
    Its no baby seal.

    Were Goon and Kopp serious about upgrading the F-111?
    They are 50+ years old! Must have been due to fall out of the sky.

  13. Lizzie

    It entertains me sometimes that we have commenters on here who think that if they put up the last comment in a string means that in some way they have ‘won’ the point.

    Not so for me – I just grow bored with it and move on to more interesting things.

  15. ctar1 @ #213 Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 4:04 pm

    Lizzie
    It entertains me sometimes that we have commenters on here who think that if they put up the last comment in a string means that in some way they have ‘won’ the point.
    Not so for me – I just grow bored with it and move on to more interesting things.

    Yep. Me too. All could be avoided by just commenting on what people say, and avoiding making inferences about their intelligence or character. Not hard.

  17. All could be avoided by just commenting on what people say, and avoiding making inferences about their intelligence or character. Not hard.

    Not hard? Some posters find it impossible!

  22. Just found this Mumble article on the Bernardi Party. He shares similar views to those I expressed recently about Bernardi’s chances of retaining his seat not as a Lib.

    Trump was a showman with a massive domestic profile, thanks in part to his reality TV show. He commandeered a major political party and rode it to high office. Bernardi, by contrast, wouldn’t be recognised in the street by the vast majority of Australians. A humourless ideologue who actually seems to believe what he says, and nothing if not consistent, he couldn’t be more different from the American charlatan.

    Bernardi is firmly of the political establishment, and preoccupied with arcane ideological wars. His name recognition is restricted to aficionados of that small-town soap opera known as Australian politics. And his brand of politics is cerebral and laden with symbolism. He fights for what he sees as the soul of the Liberal Party and remains true to the conservative movement, but unfortunately the wider public couldn’t care less, and nor, on the whole, could the party room. But he is big among the party base – and, of course, in the political media, because he makes good copy.

    ..

    As a senator, the “maverick” electoral dynamic doesn’t kick in at all. Barring another double dissolution, he is guaranteed two terms, which is just as well for him; stripped of the Liberal banner, he would have trouble getting re-elected. The senator’s causes have never been about his state, whose vote he would rely on. Re-election would depend on his behaviour as a crossbencher over the next five years, but the market for his brand of politics is minuscule. The dextrous Nick Xenophon he ain’t.

    http://insidestory.org.au/hes-no-donald-trump

  24. CTar:

    That’s why I take these Bernardi Party stories with a huge grain of salt, including the possible would-be Lib defectors. They won’t leave the comfort and salary of a guaranteed safe seat.

  26. CTar1

    That particular cartoon is a great reminder to ask yourself “Am I being/becoming that ‘guy’ ? Maybe I should just let it go ? ”
    It is a classic.

  32. Learning what senior policy-makers truly think about what has happened and what is happening in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and so on – their motives, their logic, the evidence on which they rely, their assessments of what is likely to happen – is much more important than the personality of one individual involved in publicising the information.

  34. Were Goon and Kopp serious about upgrading the F-111?

    Very. Would have been a great plan 20 years earlier, but the aging air frame and lack of obscure but vital parts would have made it a horrendous ongoing expense. Buying a few F15E’s would have been a better solution by far. They are heavy into “must have F22” which is not happening.

    Will be interesting to see how our RAAF force structure evolves. 75 F35 + 25 to 35 F18 F/G’s, with Wedgetail and the Tankers is regionally pretty significant. Equipped with the standoff weapons we have, and something like JSM (in test now) for the F35 and JASSM for the F18’s we can hold pretty much anything that floats in the region at risk. And finally the ADF is starting to take a land based surface to air capability seriously as well.

    Yes we have an idiot like Pyne running things but i think there is, actually, some decent advice coming out of the ADF to the pollies.

    Although i am not sure the truck mounted anti ship missiles in the last white paper are such a good idea?? I’d spend it on more surface to air.

  38. KayJay
    It lasts for about a fortnight- just follow the directions on the tin. Mal just needs to spray it around before each parliamentary session. It may to be too late for this current infestation – the host is probably going to die.

  39. BludgerTrack provides a fitting end for 2016 by recording another solid movement in favour of One Nation.

    It says a lot that people would rather move toward PHON than Bill Shortens ALP.

  41. Imacca

    In the past Rapier was a good thing. Has it been replaced?

    As far as i know with RBS70. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBS_70

    Rapier and RBS70 both short range systems. I think the ADF is looking to medium range / altitude land based now to provide another layer for things like airfield defense. Really, these days, that means sensors up high that can guide missiles onto low flying small targets.

    I’m sure Vlad would sell us S400 though. We could offer to let him tie Tony up and tickle him in basement of the Kremlin for a week?? 🙂

  43. “It says a lot that people would rather move toward PHON than Bill Shortens ALP.”

    Yes Rex.

    There needs to be a rule, if not a statute which says that people can only vote for the Coalition or Labor.

    If Mr Shorten was not so incompetent he would have already had the Parliament pass such a rule, don’t you think.

  47. we can hold pretty much anything that floats in the region at risk

    We could do that just as easily (and much more cost effectively) with sea-skimming cruise missiles. Nothing as complicated and costly as an F-35 (or F-18, even) is needed to deal with anything as large, slow moving, and vulnerable as a boat. Any floating threat not equipped with a Phalanx CIWS (or equivalent) can be eliminated with a single subsonic cruise missile. And anything that actually does have point defenses capable of downing an incoming missile can likely be dealt with using a salvo of 4-6 missiles coordinated to all arrive at the same time from different headings.

    How many cruise missiles can you get for the cost of one F-35? At least 100, and probably more.

    There are valid military reasons for wanting an advanced fighter aircraft (intercepting enemy fighters/bombers, establishing air superiority over hostile territory, surgical strikes against vital infrastructure, etc.), however defense against naval threats really isn’t one of them.

    Boats are virtually defenseless against a large number of modern weapons. If Trump does actually succeed in starting WW3 with another superpower (probably China), I think this will be demonstrated in spectacular fashion, with the rapid and total loss of aircraft carriers and similar massive naval assets on both sides.

  48. Is it just my imagination, or am I not having to log in nearly as much? Seems like quite a while since the last time I saw the face of she who must not be named, with a pouty face.

  50. Assange hasn’t put his life on the line for anything let alone to make the world a better place, he doesn’t even have the courage and integrity to rock up and face up to sexual assault charges. Chelsea Manning on the other hand clearly did make a very big sacrifice with the hope of making the world a better place.
    If you were genuinely wanting to make the world a better place you wouldn’t do WikiLeaks you’d do it much more the way Snowden and like actual real journalists did his information.

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