Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

Twentieth birthday miscellany (open thread)

The Poll Bludger celebrates 20 years in the only way it knows how: with some poll results and a couple of preselection updates.

Today marks twenty years since the Poll Bludger launched itself on an unsuspecting blogosphere. You may perhaps find in this milestone occasion to reward the site with a birthday present, which will be gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.

Polling news:

• YouGov has intruded on the long-held monopoly of EMRS by publishing a Tasmanian state poll. It points to the existence of a big market for the Jacqui Lambie Network, which is credited with 20% of the vote – enough in the estimation of YouGov’s “likely outcome” to win it seven seats and a decisive position in a lower house that will expand at the next election from 25 seats to 35. The Liberals duly have no chance of recording another majority, being credited with 31% of the vote and a projected eleven seats. Labor are on 27% and ten seats and the Greens 15% and six seats, with independent Kristie Johnston presumed headed for re-election in Clark. It should be noted that when the Jacqui Lambie Network last tried its hand at a state election, in 2018, strong early poll numbers withered during the campaign period and it emerged empty-handed. The poll also assumes it will run in all five divisions, whereas it was reported in November that it will not be running in Clark. The poll was conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850.

• The first federal poll of the year is from Roy Morgan, presumably returning to its weekly schedule after a four-week break over Christmas and New Year. The poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, the third Morgan poll of recent months to have the Coalition leading after two 50.5-49.5 results since October, reversing the result from the last poll in early December. Labor has taken a three-point hit on the primary vote, falling to 29%, with the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation up half to 5%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

Preselection news:

• The Age reports Labor’s candidate for the looming Dunkley by-election is likely to be Jodie Belyea, manager of MEGT Foundation, which provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women. Belyea has won the seemingly decisive support of the Socialist Left faction for a preselection that will be formally ratified by the party’s national executive over the coming weeks. The list of Liberal contenders has reportedly been reduced to Nathan Conroy, Donna Hope and Bec Buchanan, with David Burgess withdrawing from contention. The by-election is expected to be held in late February.

• The West Australian reports on two prospective nominees for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Curtin, which was lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia, and Tom White, who until recently was Uber’s chief executive for South Korea. It was earlier reported that there was a push in the party for Moran to challenge Ian Goodenough for preselection in Curtin’s northern neighbour, Moore, which is also of interest to Vince Connelly, former member for the abolished seat of Stirling.

Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

• Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

• Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

• Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Newspoll aggregates: October to December (open thread)

State breakdowns from the last three Newspoll surveys suggest two-party preferred is back where it started at the 2022 election.

As it usually does in the post-Christmas quiet spot, The Australian today brings us aggregated results from recent Newspoll surveys with voting intention and leaders’ ratings broken down by state and various demographic indicators. Unfortunately, only three polls have been conducted since the exercise was last conducted in mid-October, resulting in an unusually modest overall sample of 3655, breaking down to as little as 277 in the case of South Australia (with no repeat of the October aggregate’s inclusion of a Tasmanian result).

With due caution for the wide error margins, the state breakdowns are remarkable for how close they are to the results of the 2022 election, with Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (compared with 51.4-48.6 at the election), 55-45 in Victoria (54.8-45.2), 54-46 in Western Australia (55.0-45.0) and 55-45 in South Australia (54.0-46.0), and the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (54.0-46.0). The gender breakdowns unusually find Labor in a slightly stronger position among men (leading 53-47, out from 51-49 in the October aggregate) than women (in from 56-44 to 52-48), but I would hesitate to read much into it at this stage. You can find most of the results by clicking on the relevant tabs in the BludgerTrack poll data feature.

UPDATE: There is also today a similar exercise from Nine Newspapers from its last three monthly Resolve Strategic polls, though the interest level is limited in this case by the fact that breakdowns for the three largest states are published with each poll. Whereas Newspoll finds no state swinging by more than 1% compared with the election, Resolve Strategic, which has been markedly more favourable for Labor than other pollsters, records a very wide range of results. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers, but my own estimates suggest swings to Labor of around 3.5% in New South Wales, 3% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland and 9% in South Australia, and to the Coalition of around 2% in Western Australia. Also featured are breakdowns by three age cohorts, which follow the usual patterns.

Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)

One poll with Labor ahead, the other with a tie, further numbers from Newspoll on the leaders’ traits, and a vacancy in the top job at the Top End.

Roy Morgan might plough on this week with a poll to be dropped next Wednesday or so, but what follows are most likely the last items of polling we will see for the year. The Australian traditionally drops aggregated Newspoll breakdowns in the dead zone after Christmas, but it will only have three polls to aggregate from on this occasion, unless it supplements them somehow.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2 (in from 53.5-46.5 in the last such poll in early November), though seemingly all reportage of the poll has painted it as disastrous for Labor because the small sample of respondents with trades qualifications has the Coalition ahead. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13% (down one). The accompanying report includes extensive further questions on national direction, issue salience and immigration. The poll was conducted December 6 to 11 from an unusually large sample of 2010.

• The latest weekly poll from Roy Morgan has a tie on two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51-49 lead over the previous two weeks. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1720.

• The Australian had further results from Newspoll on the leaders’ character traits, which it published in a comprehensive display showing earlier numbers for the results going back to 2008 which is worth seeking out if you’re interested in this sort of thing. Anthony Albanese had higher ratings for trustworthy (49% to 41%), in touch (46% to 41%), caring (61% to 45%), likeable (57% to 39%) and having a vision for Australia (59% to 55%), and was less likely to be seen as arrogant (45% to 57%). Peter Dutton led on experienced (70% to 66%), decisive and strong (58% to 48%) and understanding the major issues (57% to 54%).

• Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigned yesterday after nineteen months in the job, amid revelations she had failed to declare a conflict of interest relating to shares in mining company South 32. It presumably didn’t help that a RedBridge Group poll, conducted in the middle of last month from a sample of 601, had Labor trailing the Country Liberals by 40.6% to 19.7% (although the poll found Labor doing little better federally, and its age breakdowns included the implausible finding that the gap was 40% to 11% among the 18-to-39 age cohort). Names mentioned as possible contenders are her deputy, Nicole Manison, Infrastructure Minister Joel Bowden and Attorney-General Chansey Paech.

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

The last Newspoll of the year suggests the Albanese government may have arrested its recent decline.

The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the year has Labor recovering a 52-48 lead after the previous poll three weeks ago found the Coalition drawing level. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up two), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton scores his highest approval rating of the term with a two-point gain to 39%, with his disapproval down two to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1219.

The News Corp tabloids also reported today on a RedBridge Group poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2, on which more details should be available tomorrow.

UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): The Financial Review has a Freshwater Strategy poll, conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1109, which records a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 39% and Greens 13%. This is the fourth federal poll from this outfit this term, and like the first two it has Labor’s two-party share two to three points lower than the most proximate Newspoll. It also credits Anthony Albanese with a relatively narrow 43-39 lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

The poll further includes approval and disapproval ratings for a range of public figures, which find Anthony Albanese on 37% approval and 42% disapproval and Peter Dutton on 34% approval and 36% approval, with a respective 1% and 5% saying they had never heard of them. Penny Wong had the best numbers for Labor with 35% approval and 30% disapproval, with the others canvassed each having non-recognition ratings of around a quarter: Jim Chalmers at 22% approval and 21% disapproval, Tanya Plibersek at 21% and 23%, and Chris Bowen has 16% and 22%.

Two Liberals other than Dutton were canvassed, with Sussan Ley at 16% on both approval and disapproval and 37% on non-recognition, and Angus Taylor respectively at 15%, 13% and 39%. The two best results for Coalition figures were recorded by Nationals: Jacinta Price had 28% approval, 21% approval and 17% non-recognition, while party leader David Littleproud was respectively at 20%, 17% and 29%. Barnaby Joyce did less well, with 25% approval, 42% disapproval and 8% non-recognition.

Also featured was a question on issue salience that allowed the respondents to pick multiple options. Immigration was number eight with a bullet, having increased five points to 13% since September, while the cost of living remained well clear at the top of the table with 71%, albeit that this was down six points. Immigration was also the weakest issue area for Labor as best party to manage, down six to 23% with the Coalition up two to 36%. However, Labor widened its lead on job security and unemployment, up one to 35% with the Coalition down two to 30%, and holds a commanding lead of 40% to 24% on welfare and benefits.

Weekend miscellany: RedBridge WA polling, trusted politicians, Senate vacancies and more (open thread)

A new poll suggests Labor is well placed to retain its federal gains in WA from 2022. Also: new incoming Labor and Greens Senators, a Liberal retirement announcement and more.

Two new items of opinion polling:

• RedBridge Group has a poll of voting intention from Western Australia, encompassing both a federal result and a state one you can read about in the post immediately above. Both are encouraging for Labor, the federal result crediting them with a 55.2-44.8 lead, effectively unchanged on a 2022 election result of 55.0-45.0. The primary votes are Labor 39% (36.8% at the election), Coalition 37% (34.8%), Greens 12% (12.5%) and One Nation 5% (4.0%). Field work dates are not provided, but the sample was 1200.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll on politicians’ trustworthiness, and while only scarce detail is offered, we are told three out of twenty-four had net positive results: Penny Wong, Jacinta Price and Jim Chalmers. Anthony Albanese recorded minus three, while Peter Dutton was on minus fourteen. The poll was conducted November 16 to 20 from a sample of 1095.

Preselection latest:

• Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned barrister at Francis Burt Chambers, has been confirmed as Labor’s successor to the Western Australian Senate vacancy that will be created next month by the retirement of Pat Dodson.

• Steph Hodgins-May, former senior campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, won a Greens preselection vote to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy that will be created when Janet Rice retires in the second half of next year. Hodgins-May ran three times in the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where she came very close to unseating Labor’s Josh Burns in 2022. Broede Carmody of The Age reports the other candidates were “City of Monash councillor Josh Fergeus, former Melbourne lord mayoral candidate Apsara Sabaratnam, former Legislative Council MP Huong Truong, Coburg-based surrogacy lawyer Sarah Jefford and barrister David Risstrom”.

• Nola Marino, who has held the seat of Forrest for the Liberals in Western Australia’s South West region since 2007, announced last week that she will retire at the next election. The West Australian reports former Senator Ben Small is “believed to have the inside track” to succeed her as Liberal candidate. Small is a former logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a Bunbury bar and restaurant. He came to the Senate when he filled Mathias Cormann’s vacancy in November 2020 and failed to win re-election from third on the ticket in 2022.

• Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports Ian Goodenough, the Liberal member for Moore, may face a second preselection challenger in Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran, former journalist and former staffer to Malcolm Turnbull and Christopher Pyne. Moran now works in government relations for shipbuilder Luerssen. It has long been anticipated Goodenough will be challenged by RSLWA chief executive Vince Connelly, who held the seat of Stirling before its abolition in 2022 and then run unsuccessfully in Cowan after losing a preselection ballot against Goodenough by 39 votes to 36.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Susan Morris, who runs a vascular surgery practice in Kew, will run for Liberal preselection in Kooyong. She is the second nominee after Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex.

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 46 (open thread)

Two new polls find no continuation in Labor’s recent slide, although a third points to a high level of public concern about immigration.

I’ve been too busy in the last few days to give the site the attention it deserves, and in particularly to have anything to offer about the by-election that is sadly upon us in the marginal Labor seat of Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east. The Age had a Resolve Strategic poll for Victoria on Saturday that escaped my notice at the time and which I’ll finally do a post on later today. For now, I offer a perfunctory account of two recent federal results:

• The latest Essential Research poll is all but unchanged on last fortnight, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all steady on 34%, 31% and 13%, One Nation down a point to 6%, and undecided down a point to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up a point to 49% and the Coalition down one to 46%. Also included in the poll are monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, where respondents are asked to rate their performance on a scale of one to ten, which find Anthony Albanese still in decline though at a slower rate than last month, and Peter Dutton taking a downward turn after a relatively strong result last month. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1102.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, with Labor down two on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down half 37%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation steady on 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.

• Nine Newspapers had further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday regarding immigration, which found 62% believe current levels are too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. Fifty-seven per cent felt the government was handling immigration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”, with only 16% favouring the “carefully planned and managed” alternative. The poll predated the government’s announcement of its immigration strategy on Monday.