Category: British politics

US Democrats continue to gain in redistricting

But Joe Biden’s ratings remain poor. Also: Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister, Socialists win a majority in Portugal and Macron likely in France.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Redistricting of the 435 Congressional Districts for US federal House elections occurs once a decade based on the Census. Some states use independent commissions, but in most a party that has control of the legislature and governor can gerrymander. Sometimes state courts reject gerrymanders.

In the FiveThirtyEight tracker, there are 160 Democratic-leaning seats, 141 Republican-leaning seats and 26 competitive seats in new maps. Changes from the previous maps are Democrats up 11, Republicans down three and competitive down eight.

Democrats in New York used their control of the state legislature and governor to impose a likely 22-4 Democratic gerrymander of NY’s CDs, up from the current 19-8 delegation. Republicans still controlled the state Senate in 2010, the last redistricting year. In other good redistricting news for Democrats, the North Carolina state courts rejected a Republican gerrymander, joining Ohio in doing this.

A three-judge federal court with two Trump appointees required a second Black opportunity seat in Alabama. But the Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 right majority, put a stay on this decision in a 5-4 judgment until they hear the case. The 6-1 Republican map passed by the legislature will stay for at least the 2022 elections.

Joe Biden’s ratings remain poor, with 53.1% disapproving and 41.9% approving in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate (net -11.2). He has almost overtaken Trump in having the worst net approval of any president at this stage in their term since approval polling began with Truman (1945-53).

Inflation increased 0.6% in January for a 12-month rate of 7.5%,, the highest since 1982, as 12-month real weekly wages dropped 3.1%. Given the Afghanistan fallout, it’s unlikely a Russian invasion of the Ukraine will boost Biden’s ratings.

UK: Boris Johnson still PM

In my previous article in late January, it had appeared likely that the 54 no-confidence letters from Conservative MPs needed to trigger a full confidence vote in Boris Johnson would be submitted soon. But they were not submitted in the next three parliamentary weeks, and there is a parliamentary recess this week, giving Johnson respite until at least February 21.

There are still dangers for Johnson. The first is being fined by the police over the parties held during lockdown he attended. But an aspect that has angered the public is that Johnson and his colleagues have got away with clear rule breaches, when the police would have jumped on ordinary people who held lockdown parties. If Johnson is seen to be punished, that could assuage public anger.

A second danger for Johnson is if the Conservatives get thrashed at the May 5 local elections. Electricity and gas bills will rise 54% for a typical household in April – terrible timing for Johnson and Conservative councilor candidates.

Previously, I suggested voters could move on from the “PartyGate” affair. The last three UK polls have had Labour’s lead over the Conservatives dropping to 3-5 points from the high single digits polls previously gave Labour.

The Conservatives retained Southend West at a February 3 by-election with 86% of the vote. Owing to the murder of the previous MP, no other party with a national profile contested.

Majority for centre-left Socialists in Portugal

At the January 30 Portuguese election, the Socialists won 119 of the 230 seats (up 11 since 2019), the conservative Social Democrats 73 (down one), the far-right Chega 12 (up 11), the right-wing Liberal Initiative eight (up seven) and two far-left parties, who were blamed for the early election, won 11 combined seats (down 20).

Popular votes were 41.5% Socialists, 27.8% Social Democrats, 7.3% Chega, 4.9% Liberal Initiative and 8.7% for the far-left, with the Socialists outperforming the polls. Portugal uses proportional representation, but distributes its seats on a regional basis; this allows bigger parties to win more seats than using national PR.

French elections: April 10 and 24

The first round of the French presidential election will be held April 10, with a runoff April 24. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is in a clear first place in the first round with about 24%, but the second runoff position could plausibly go to any of the far-right Marine Le Pen, the conservative Valérie Pécresse or the even more far-right Éric Zemmour. In runoff polls, Macron gets over 60% against Zemmour, about 56% against Le Pen and about 54% against Pécresse.

Will Boris Johnson be ousted as UK Prime Minister soon?

Speculation last week that Johnson would face a full Conservative confidence vote has so far come to nought. Also: US redistricting, French, Portuguese and Chile elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

For a UK Conservative leader to be ousted, the first step is for 15% of the party’s MPs to send letters expressing no confidence to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady. As there are currently 359 Conservatives in the House of Commons, 54 letters expressing no confidence in Boris Johnson are required.

If this first threshold is met, there is a secret ballot of all Conservative MPs. If the leader wins this confidence vote, they cannot be challenged for another year, although this rule could be amended. If the leader loses, they would be expected to be a caretaker PM until the next leader is elected.

Last week there was speculation that an announcement that Brady had received the 54 letters was imminent, but it did not occur. Johnson’s danger is due to the parties that were held while the UK was in COVID lockdown at Downing Street. This caused a slump for the Conservatives in the polls in December. The Conservatives regained some ground in early January, only for even more party revelations to crash their vote again. Some Conservatives may be waiting for Sue Gray’s report into the parties, expected next week, before moving against Johnson.

It was bad timing for Johnson that these party revelations came when the UK was suffering another COVID wave due to Omicron. This made people’s memories of past lockdowns more vivid, and so the parties resonated more than they would otherwise. In good news for Johnson, the Omicron wave is subsiding, with cases way down from their peak and hospitalisations also starting to fall.

I am dubious that ousting Johnson would be in the Conservatives’ electoral interests. While Johnson is very unpopular now, voters tend to move past non-recurring issues. The parties occurred in the last two years, and are unlikely to cause voters additional pain in the future. As the UK COVID situation improves, voters are likely to move past the parties.

Another argument against removing Johnson is that he “got Brexit done”. At the 2019 election, non-uni whites swung strongly to the Conservatives over Johnson’s promise to “get Brexit done” – see my Conversation article last May. Will these voters remain Conservative under another Conservative PM?

Democrats gain in US redistricting, but Biden’s ratings remain poor

A US Census is held every ten years, with the boundaries of Congressional Districts set for ten years by that Census. Most states have completed redistricting of their CDs from the 2020 Census. The FiveThirtyEight tracker says that there are 129 Democratic-leaning seats, 124 Republican-leaning seats and 21 highly competitive seats in the new maps so far. The changes from the old maps are Democrats up seven, Republicans up one and competitive down six.

While some states use nonpartisan commissions to draw their maps, in most states redistricting is up to politicians. If one party holds the governor and both chambers of the legislature in a state, that party can gerrymander. Republican-controlled Florida (28 CDs) and Democratic New York (26) are the two biggest states still to complete redistricting. A Republican gerrymander in Ohio was rejected by the state courts, and this could also occur in North Carolina.

Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate are currently 53.5% disapprove, 41.9% approve (net -11.6). They have worsened recently owing to the recent COVID surge. There has been no recent progress with the Democratic legislative agenda. Inflation over the full 2021 year was 7.0%, the highest since 1982. A recent CBS YouGov poll indicates voters think Biden is not focussed enough on combatting inflation.

French, Portuguese and Chile developments

The first round of the French presidential election is on April 10, with a runoff between the top two on April 24. Conservative Valérie Pécresse has slipped behind the far-right Marine Le Pen in the race for second with incumbent Emmanuel Macron well ahead in first. Macron easily beats Le Pen, but it’s closer against Pécresse.

A Portuguese election will be held on January 30, with 230 seats elected by proportional representation. Polls indicate a close contest between the overall left and overall right. Portugal currently has a left government.

At the December 19 Chilean presidential runoff election, left-wing Boric defeated the far-right Kast by 55.9-44.1.

UK North Shropshire by-election minus two days

Conservatives slumping in polls over sleaze scandals. Also: coverage of developments in the US, France, Germany and New Zealand.

Live Commentary

3:55pm The Lib Dems have GAINED North Shropshire by more than a 15% margin over the Conservatives. This will be very bad for Johnson’s standing among Conservative MPs, but it was hardly a good result for Labour; their vote was down over 12% from 2019.

1:28pm Friday: Turnout in North Shropshire is 46.3%, down 21.6% on the 2019 general election. A Lib Dem source is claiming they will win by at least 1,000 votes.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

A UK parliamentary by-election will occur in Conservative-held North Shropshire, with polls closing at 9am AEDT Friday. This seat has voted Conservative at every election since the 1830s, and voted Leave at the 2016 Brexit referendum by 60-40. In 2019, the Conservatives won by 63-22 over Labour with 10% for the Liberal Democrats. Despite finishing third, the Lib Dems are seen as bigger threats in the by-election.

Local MP Owen Paterson resigned in early November after it was found he breached paid advocacy rules by working for two companies. The Conservative government initially protected him by overruling the independent commission, but was forced into a u-turn by a public backlash. The initial protection was a blunder as it drew attention to other shady practices by Conservative MPs.

The 2020 Downing Street Christmas party, held during lockdown, has further damaged the Conservatives. Even normally pro-Conservative newspapers savaged Boris Johnson. An Opinium poll had Johnson’s net approval crashing 14 points to -35, from what was already a record low approval in late November, and 57% said he should resign.

From January, the Conservatives held a significant lead, but fell into a tie with Labour after the Paterson fiasco. The Christmas party scandal has given Labour a high single-digit lead, with ten polls in the last week having Labour ahead by 4-9 points. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is up to 7% in two polls owing to opposition to vaccine mandates.

A by-election was held in Old Bexley last fortnight, with the Conservatives retaining by a 51.5-30.9 margin over Labour, down from 64.5-23.5 in 2019. 99 Conservative MPs rebelled against vaccine mandates for entry to large venues in a Commons vote Tuesday, and it was only carried with Labour support. Left-wing Labour MPs and the Lib Dems were also opposed.

US: Democrats make legislative progress, but Biden’s ratings still poor

Shortly after Democrats’ dire performance in the November 2 Virginia and New Jersey elections, the US House passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIB) by 228-206, with 13 Republicans supporting while six left-wing Democrats were opposed owing to decoupling from the Democratic infrastructure bill (DIB). The BIB had already passed the Senate, so it became law with Joe Biden’s signature.

Later in November, the House passed the DIB, and this can pass the Senate with a simple majority using “reconciliation”. While Democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are concerns for their party in a 50-50 Senate, it’s likely the DIB will pass by early next year. Congress has also averted an early December government shutdown and a mid-December debt limit default.

Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate have improved slightly in the last fortnight to 50.7% disapprove, 43.3% approve (net -7.4). His ratings are poor owing to US inflation, which was up 0.8% in November for a 12-month rate of 6.8%, the highest since 1982. As a result, real wages were down 1.9% over the last 12 months.

French, German and New Zealand developments

The first round of the French presidential election will be held April 10 with a runoff between the top two candidates on April 24 in the likely event nobody wins a first round majority. After winning the nomination for the conservative Les Republicains on December 4, Valérie Pécresse has surged in the polls to be just ahead of the far-right’s Marine Le Pen, behind incumbent Emmanuel Macron. In runoff match-ups, Macron easily leads Le Pen, but is barely ahead of Pécresse.

On December 8, more than two months after the September 26 German election, a new government was formed. The government will be a coalition of the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the pro-business FDP, and will have a combined 416 of the 736 parliamentary seats. The conservative CDU/CSU had been a party of government for the previous 16 years under former chancellor Angela Merkel.

A New Zealand Morgan poll, conducted during November, had Labour and the Greens trailing National, ACT and Maori by a combined 47-46.5, the first time Labour plus Greens have trailed since before COVID hit. The right-wing ACT won just 0.5% of the party vote at the 2017 election, but surged to 7.6% in 2020, and was up to a record 17.5% in this poll.

England COVID “Freedom Day” plus two weeks

A drop for the Conservatives in the polls as UK COVID cases fall. Also: German polls ahead of the September 26 election, and Biden’s ratings and US COVID.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Boris Johnson declared July 19 would be COVID “Freedom Day” in England, the day when virtually all remaining- COVID restrictions were relaxed. Freedom Day only applied to England, with Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland retaining some restrictions.

Over 88% of UK adults have received a first dose of COVID vaccination, and over 72% have received both doses (fully vaccinated). About 95% of English aged over 55 are fully vaccinated. The vaccination coverage for the elderly, who are most vulnerable to COVID, explains Johnson’s Freedom Day.

The government could have given younger people more opportunity to be vaccinated, but they wanted to have Freedom Day during summer, when there are fewer complications from cold weather.

After peaking at over 54,000 daily cases on July 17, two days before Freedom Day, UK daily cases declined to 23,500 last Tuesday. On Thursday, cases rose to over 31,000, but have fallen every day since to below 22,000 Monday. The government and many epidemiologists had predicted daily cases would rise to over 100,000 after Freedom Day.

While cases had nearly increased to their January peaks on July 17, the rolling seven-day COVID death average has only increased to 75. That’s a massive reduction from the horrific January peak when the seven-day average was over 1,200 deaths. The UK’s vaccination program has clearly worked in reducing the severity of COVID for elderly people.

In national polls conducted the week after Freedom Day, the Conservative lead over Labour fell from the high single to low double digits to only two to five points, likely owing to public disapproval of the perceived recklessness of Freedom Day. But with daily COVID cases roughly halving instead of doubling, it is likely that the Conservatives will soon regain a large lead.

German election: September 26

The German federal election will be held on September 26. The conservative CDU/CSU has governed since 2005, with assistance from the centre-left SPD in three of those four terms. Parties require at least 5% to qualify for the proportional allocation of seats.

A few months ago, the Greens were doing much better, and the combined vote for the left parties (SPD, Greens and far-left Left) was just ahead of the combined right vote (CDU/CSU, far-right AfD and pro-business FDP). But the CDU/CSU has since regained ground at the Greens’ expense, and the right is now ahead by about a 50-43 margin. The Left party is at 6-7%, close to the threshold.

While no other party will work with the AfD, any government would need to include a right-wing party on current polls. I believe Germans were dissatisfied with their vaccination rollout, but are now better disposed, as over 51% of Germany’s population is fully vaccinated; the denominator includes children. The recovery of the CDU/CSU has implications for the Australian Coalition’s recovery once vaccinations are at a high level.

Biden’s ratings steady as US suffers “pandemic of the unvaccinated”

Over six months into Joe Biden’s presidency, the FiveThirtyEight aggregate gives him 51.5% approval and 43.4% disapproval (net +8.1%). With registered or likely voters, Biden’s ratings are 51.0% approval, 44.5% disapproval (net +6.5%). Biden’s ratings have been steady, but there has been a little recent decline. On net approval, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump, Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford at this point in their presidencies.

NBC News has two maps, one showing where US COVID cases are rising fastest, and one showing the unvaccinated percentage in each state. There is correlation between these two series, but there have been large rises in Florida and California, which are both close to the fully vaccinated share of the national population (49.2%). Most states with current large outbreaks voted for Trump in 2020, but California is the exception. According to a US ABC hospital survey, 94% of COVID ICU patients were unvaccinated.

An economic danger for Biden is inflation. The US Consumer Price Index has increased 2.9% in the four months to June, for a total increase of 5.4% since June 2020. High inflation undermines wage growth. Most analysts believe current inflation is transitory, and will ease as supply chains are ramped up.

UK Batley and Spen by-election minus one day

Conservatives likely to gain a second seat at a by-election. Also covered: French regional elections and a massive stuff-up on preferential voting in New York City.

Updates

5:30pm If the expected loss had occurred, many in Labour would have been calling for Keir Starmer’s head. So Starmer and his allies will be jubilant at this result.

4:58pm Labour HOLD Batley and Spen. Vote shares were 35.3% Labour (down 7.4%), 34.4% Tory (down 1.6%) and 21.9% for the Workers’ Party’s Galloway. This result is very contrary to expectations of a Tory gain. While Galloway was expected to help the Tories by taking away from Labour, some people who may have voted Tory probably voted Galloway as he was another anti-establishment candidate. Also, the Tory lead in national polls has fallen from low double digits to high single digits. Maybe this reflects the vaccination surge for the Tories finally wearing off, plus the Matt Hancock scandal.

11:55am I need to leave soon, so I won’t be able to post the result until I get back later this afternoon. But local council by-election results look dire for Labour – you can read about them on the Britain Elects Twitter account.

11:50am Friday George Galloway stood in Batley and Spen for the Workers’ Party on a platform to the left of Labour. A tweet from a Daily Mirror correspondent says his party expects Galloway to come second, driving Labour into third.

9:15am Even though preferences were entirely optional at this NYC election, just 29.3% of all votes cast for candidates other than Adams and Garcia exhausted. That’s far less than in NSW for eg the Upper Hunter by-election, when over 60% of all minor candidates’ preferences exhausted.

9am Thursday Garcia trails Adams by almost 15,000 votes (51.1-48.9) in the corrected NYC preferential vote with over 125,000 postals still to be added that are expected to favour Garcia. Garcia edged out Wiley by just 0.1% at the second last count.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Polls for the UK Labour-held Batley and Spen by-election close at 7am AEST Friday. This seat voted 60% Leave at the Brexit referendum. The 2019 results were 42.7% Labour (down 12.7% since 2017), 36.0% Conservative (down 2.8%), 12.2% for an independent, 4.7% Lib Dem (up 2.4%) and 3.2% Brexit party. A Survation poll two weeks ago gave the Conservatives a 47-41 lead over Labour.

If the Conservatives win Batley and Spen, it would be their second gain at a by-election this term, following their early May triumph in Hartlepool. Except for 1961, when the Conservatives gained after the winning Labour candidate was disqualified, this would be the first time since 1929 that an incumbent government gained two seats at by-elections.

I believe Labour is in trouble in its seats that voted for Brexit because of education polarisation. I wrote in May for The Conversation that whites without a university education are deserting left-leaning parties in Australia, the US and the UK.

While the Conservatives have been winning in Brexit voting Labour seats, they were rebuffed at the Chesham and Amersham by-election last fortnight. The Lib Dems won 56.7% (up a massive 30.4%), the Conservatives 35.5% (down 19.9%), the Greens 3.9% (down 1.6%) and Labour a pathetic 1.6% (down 11.2%). This seat was 55% Remain.

This by-election was the 15th largest “two party” swing in UK by-elections. The Lib Dems and their Liberal predecessors have benefited in seven of the larger swings, with some others having MPs who switched parties before resigning and recontesting. However, Labour’s vote share appears to be their lowest at a by-election they contested.

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock resigned on Saturday after pictures of him kissing his female aide were published by The Sun on Friday. Hancock’s major problem was not infidelity to his wife, but that he had advocated social distancing during COVID, but was not distancing from his aide. A national poll taken on Monday gave the Conservatives a seven point lead, down from 11 the previous week.

French regional elections and polling for 2022 presidential election

French regional elections were held in two rounds on June 20 and 27. The Guardian reported that results were disappointing for both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally, and incumbent president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist La République en Marche. Neither party won any regions, as the centre-left Socialists and centre-right Républicains dominated. Turnout was low, with 66% of registered voters abstaining.

The first round of the French presidential election will be held in April 2022. If no candidate wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two is held a fortnight after the first round.

For the first round, le Pen is just ahead of Macron, by about 27% to 26%, with both well ahead of other candidates who are under 18%. In the second round, Macron is leading le Pen by about 53.5-46.5. That’s well down from Macron’s crushing 66.1-33.9 margin in 2017, though polls understated Macron’s vote then.

Preferential voting comes to New York City!

The Democratic mayoral primary for NYC occurred on June 22 using preferential voting for the first time. As NYC is heavily Democratic, the Democratic nominee is almost certain to win the November general election.

Black former policeman Eric Adams led on first preferences with 31.7%, followed by left-wing activist Maya Wiley with 22.3%, former NYC sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia with 19.5% and 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang with 11.7%.

These primary votes reflected the election night count. Over 140,000 votes were added and preferences were distributed on Tuesday (US time), and Garcia was just ahead of Wiley at the penultimate count, before losing to Adams by 51.1-48.9. The nearly 16,000 Adams margin excluded over 124,000 postal votes that are expected to favour Garcia.

But late on Tuesday, the NYC Board of Elections yanked these results. Analyst Dave Wasserman said something was wrong with the 140,000 additional votes, which had low vote shares for the four major candidates – they’re mostly test votes that hadn’t been removed. Maybe we’ll get clearer results Thursday AEST, but currently this NYC election is a massive stuff-up. This will provide ammunition for Trump’s baseless fraud claims.

I will update this article in the next two days to follow developments in NYC and Batley and Spen.

Netanyahu ousted in Israeli Knesset confidence vote

Also covered: US and UK by-elections, a German state election and federal polls, and the far-left narrowly wins in Peru.

11:24am Saturday A grim Survation poll for Labour in Batley and Spen, with the Tories leading Labour by 47-41.

11:06am Friday The Lib Dems have GAINED the UK Chesham and Amersham by-election from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems won 56.7% (up 30.4%), the Conservatives 35.5% (down 19.9%) and Labour a pathetic 1.6% (down 11.2%).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

At the March Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties won 59 of the 120 Knesset seats, two short of the 61 for a majority. Netanyahu was given the first attempt to form a government, but was unsuccessful.

On June 2, just before the deadline expired, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid announced he had formed a government that excluded Netanyahu. Under the agreement, Naftali Bennett, leader of the far-right Yamina, would be PM for two years, with Lapid taking over for the remainder of the four-year term. The coalition has parties from across the political spectrum, including a small Arab party for the first time in an Israeli government.

On Sunday, the Israeli Knesset held a confidence vote in the new government, and it won this vote by 60-59, with one Arab member abstaining. Bennett became PM, ending Netanyahu’s 12 successive years as Israel’s PM. Yamina won just seven seats at the election, while Yesh Atid won 17.

The key question is how long the present government will last. The parties that formed it are united only by their detestation of Netanyahu. As the government is headed by a far-right PM, it’s unlikely to be good for Palestinian rights.

US Democrats perform strongly in New Mexico by-election             

At a by-election for New Mexico’s first Congressional District on June 1, the Democrat defeated the Republican by a 60.3-35.7% margin. The almost 25-point Democratic victory is two points better for Democrats than Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump in the same district in 2020, and eight points better than the Democratic incumbent in 2020. This was much better for Democrats than the dreadful result in a Texas federal by-election on May 1.

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Biden’s current ratings are 53.2% approve, 40.7% disapprove (net +12.5%). With polls of likely or registered voters, his ratings are 53.6% approve, 41.3% disapprove (net +12.3%).

Biden’s initial ratings had high disapprovals by the standards of past presidents, and he was ahead of only Trump on net approval. But his approval has since been very steady, and he has overtaken Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford at the same point of their presidencies.

Good result for CDU at German state election

At the June 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election, the conservative CDU won 37.1% (up 7.4% since 2016), the far-right AfD 20.6% (down 3.4%), the Left 11.0% (down 5.3%), the centre-left SPD 8.4% (down 2.2%), the pro-business FDP 6.4% (up 1.6%) and the Greens 5.9% (up 0.8%). The CDU won 40 of the 97 seats, the AfD 23, the Left 12, SPD nine, FDP seven and Greens six. 5% is needed for the proportional allocation of seats, so the FDP missed out last time.

In German federal polls ahead of the September 26 election, the CDU/CSU has advanced at the expense of the Greens since my last update in early May, with the FDP also up, while the Left is close to the 5% threshold. Right-wing parties now have about 50% combined, to about 43% for the combined left. Another poor election for the left in a major European country is likely.

Upcoming UK by-elections

On Thursday, a by-election will occur in the Conservative-held Chesham and Amersham. While this seat has been Conservative-held since its creation in 1974, it voted 55% Remain at the Brexit referendum. To compensate for the loss of its Leave-voting seats, Labour needs to gain seats like C&A. Although Labour finished second in 2017, the 2019 results were 55.4% Conservative (down 5.3%), 26.3% Lib Dem (up 13.3%), 12.9% Labour (down 7.7%) and 5.5% Greens (up 2.5%).

There will be a July 1 by-election in Labour-held Batley and Spen, which voted 60% Leave at the Brexit referendum. The 2019 results were 42.7% Labour (down 12.7%), 36.0% Conservative (down 2.8%), 12.2% for an independent, 4.7% Lib Dem (up 2.4%) and 3.2% Brexit party.

Far-left defeats far-right in Peru

In the June 6 Peru presidential runoff, the far-left’s Pedro Castillo defeated the far-right’s Keiko Fujimori by just a 50.13-49.87 margin. Fujimori is the daughter of the former dictator, and has narrowly lost three runoffs. In the first round, Castillo won 18.9% and Fujimori 13.4% with the rest being too split to qualify for the runoff.

UK local, Scottish and Welsh elections live

Live commentary on today’s UK elections, and a Westminster by-election in Labour-held Hartlepool, where a poll gave the Conservatives a 17-point lead. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Results Summary

In England, Labour suffered a crushing Westminster by-election loss in Hartlepool, with the Tories romping to a 52-29 victory in a Labour-held seat. Labour’s vote was nine points down on what they got with Jeremy Corbyn as leader in the December 2019 general election – and that was a bad loss overall.

In English local council elections, the Tories won the BBC’s Projected National Share by 36-29 over Labour, a bad result for an opposition party. With all 143 councils up for election reported, the Tories have gained over 200 councillors, while Labour has lost over 300. The Greens are up almost 90 councillors.

In Scotland, the SNP fell one seat short of a majority, but will be able to continue governing with the Greens. In Wales, Labour is one seat short, but will continue to govern with the Lib Dems. The Welsh result contradicts English results. Labour’s Sadiq Khan was easily re-elected London mayor.

Live Commentary

10:16am Monday With all 143 English councils declared, the Tories control 63 (up 13), Labour 44 (down eight) and the Lib Dems seven (up one). The Tories won 2,345 councillors (up 235), Labour 1,345 (down 326), the Lib Dems 586 (up seven), the Greens 151 (up 88) and UKIP zero (down 48).

10am With 132 of the 143 English councils declared, the Tories control 58 councils (up 12), Labour 44 (down seven) and the Lib Dems five (steady). The Tories have 2,205 councillors (up 239), Labour 1,268 (down 301), the Lib Dems 524 (down eight), the Greens 121 (up 70) and UKIP zero (down 43). These elections were good for the Tories and Greens, and bad for Labour and UKIP.

9:48am For the London Assembly, Labour won 11 of the 25 seats (down one since 2016), the Tories nine (up one), the Greens three (up one), the Lib Dems two (up one) and UKIP zero (down two). Labour will need support from either the Greens or Lib Dems on measures opposed by the Tories. Labour won nine of the 14 FPTP seats.

9:07am With 11 of 13 mayors declared, Labour has gained two from the Tories. Mayoral elections use preferential voting, and Labour won in one of their gains after trailing on first preferences. In Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, primary votes were 40.5% Tory, 32.8% Labour and 26.7% Lib Dem. Labour won by 51.3-48.7 after preferences.

8:58am Labour’s Sadiq Khan is re-elected Mayor of London by 55.2-44.8 over Tory Shaun Bailey. Primary votes were 40.0% Khan, 35.3% Bailey, 7.8% Greens and 4.4% Lib Dem.

6:57am Labour fell just short of a majority in Wales, winning 30 of the 60 seats (up one since 2016). The Tories won 16 (up five), Plaid Cymru 13 (up one) and the Lib Dems one (steady). The Labour/Lib Dem coalition will continue. List vote shares were 36.2% Labour (up 4.7%), 25.1% Tories (up 6.3%), 20.7% Plaid Cymru (down 0.1%), 4.3% Lib Dem (down 2.2%), 4.4% Greens (up 1.4%) and 1.6% UKIP (down 11.4%). Labour won 27 of the 40 FPTP seats.

6:48am Sunday The SNP has fallen one seat short of a Scottish parliamentary majority, winning 64 of the 129 seats (up one since 2016). The Tories won 31 seats (steady), Labour 22 (down two), the Greens eight (up two) and the Lib Dems four (down one). The SNP won 62 of the 73 FPTP seats, but only 40.3% of the list vote (down 1.4%). The Tories won 23.5% in the list (up 0.6%), Labour 17.9% (down 1.2%), the Greens 8.1% (up 1.5%) and the Lib Dems 5.1% (down 0.1%). The SNP/Green coalition will continue.

10:18pm Labour is still on 30 seats in Wales, one short of a majority, after 56 of the 60 are declared. There’s one four-member region to go. In England, with 97 of 143 councils declared, the Tories are pulling well ahead of Labour, who have lost over 200 councillors.

11:23am After these seven of 14 FPTP seats declared, Labour’s Sadiq Khan leads Tory Shaun Bailey for London mayor by 39.0% to 37.0%. Of the seven remaining seats, five voted Labour and two Tory in 2016. Khan should increase his primary vote lead when these are counted, and will benefit from Greens and Lib Dem preferences. It will be closer than polls expected, but Khan will win.

10:35am As well as the mayor, there is a London-wide Assembly. So far, only seven of the 25 Assembly seats have been declared. These are all FPTP with list seats to be added later. Labour has won four of the seven, and the Tories three; there is no change in any seat declared from 2016.

10:17am With 87 of the 143 English councils declared, the Tories control 36 councils (up six) and Labour 33 (down four). The Tories have 1,379 councillors (up 153), Labour 864 (down 186), the Lib Dems 273 (down 25) and the Greens 78 (up 51).

10:10am Labour is on the verge of a majority in Wales. They’ve won 30 of the 52 seats declared so far (up one), with 12 Tories (up four), nine Plaid Cymru (down one), one Lib Dem (steady) and zero UKIP (down four). If Labour wins one of the eight regional seats in two regions to be declared, they will have a Welsh parliamentary majority. However, they may have maxed out in those regions owing to their FPTP dominance.

8:05am In Wales, two of the regional lists have been declared. Labour now has 27 of the 47 to be declared so far (up one), the Tories 12 (up four) and Plaid Cymru eight (down one). One FPTP and three four-member regions remain. A majority is 31 seats.

7am Labour has won 26 of the 39 Welsh seats declared so far, steady since 2016. The Tories have eight (up two), Plaid Cymru five (down one) and the Lib Dems zero (down one). Labour and the Tories’ vote share have both increased 5% from 2016, with UKIP down 12%. One FPTP remains to be declared, then the 20 regional seats.

6:50am In Scotland, the SNP have won 39 of the 48 seats declared so far, a gain of three for them since 2016. The Lib Dems have four (steady), the Tories three (down two) and Labour two (down one). All seats declared so far are FPTP seats, not the proportional list. So far, the SNP have gained 1.3% in their vote share. There will be no further counting until tonight AEST.

6:39am Saturday The BBC’s Projected National Share, based on English councils to declare so far, is 36% Tory, 29% Labour and 17% Lib Dem. The seven-point Tory lead compares with a one-point Labour lead in 2016 and an 11-point Tory lead in 2017, the last time councillors elected here were up. Governments usually perform worse at council elections than general elections, so this is very bad for Labour. The Lib Dems always do worse at general elections than at council elections.

6:21pm After 16 of 143 councils declared, the Tories have overtaken Labour in both councils controlled and total councillors.

6:17pm Most councils declared so far last elected in 2016, when Labour won nationally by one point and UKIP was still strong. The Tories have consolidated the UKIP vote. An exception is Northumberland, last elected in 2017. The Tories were up one seat there and Labour down three. 2017 was already very bad for Labour (they lost by 38-27 nationally).

4:16pm Labour got THRASHED in the Hartlepool by-election by 23 points. That’s even worse than the 17 points in the Survation poll. Another seat to add to the Tories’ big majority in the Commons. Labour’s vote was nine points worse than under Corbyn in Dec 2019! RefUK measured against Brexit party support in 2019.

3:20pm The Greens gain a ward in Stockport from Labour.

3:15pm Labour GAINS a ward in Northumberland from the Tories. A better result for Labour than most so far.

3:06pm: So far, we’ve got complete results from only 11 of 143 English councils, nothing from Scotland or Wales and nothing from London. This BBC item says it’ll probably take until Saturday night to get full results (Sunday morning AEST). It’s taking longer than usual due to COVID precautions and a high number of elections.

1:47pm Scotland and Wales will start counting Friday morning UK time (tonight AEST).

1:42pm After nine of 143 English councils declared, Labour have 98 councillors (down 28), the Tories 53 (up 24), the Lib Dems 22 (up three) and the Greens three (up two).

12:57pm In the first council to officially change hands, the Conservatives won 12 of the 13 up for election (up seven) in Harlow, to have an overall 20-13 majority over Labour.

12:35pm Swing of over 40% (!!) to the Conservatives in a ward on Nuneaton and Bedworth council. Tories now have a majority on that council for first time since 2008.

11:51am Labour is already conceding defeat in the Hartlepool by-election.

10:35am No councils officially declared yet, but there have been dreadful results for Labour in northern, pro-Leave areas.

9:12am The first result is in from a ward in Northumberland, and it’s grim for Labour. They held, but only by two points as the Tory vote surged 27 points with no UKIP.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Polls close for today’s UK elections at 7am AEST. In the UK, all votes for a seat or council are gathered in one place and counted there. Scotland and Wales use regional lists, and we will not know the regional result until at least all First Past the Post seats in that region are declared. I expect we will need to wait until at least Saturday morning AEST for final results.

The biggest news since Monday’s article is a poll for the Westminster by-election in Labour-held Hartlepool. This Survation poll, conducted April 23-29 from a sample of 517, gave the Conservatives 50%, Labour 33%, two independents a combined 12% and the Greens 3%. A previous Survation poll, in early April, gave the Conservatives a 49-42 lead over Labour.

While Hartlepool has been Labour-held since 1964, it voted to Leave the European Union in 2016 by nearly a 70-30 margin. At the December 2019 general election, Labour was only saved by a split between the Conservatives and Brexit party. Labour had 37.7%, the Conservatives 28.9%, the Brexit party 25.8% and the Lib Dems 4.1%.

In Australia, single-seat polls have been particularly error-prone, but it would be unusual for a poll to be wrong by 17 points or more. Losing Hartlepool would be a disaster for Labour.

UK local, Scottish and Welsh elections minus four days

Two polls have a sizeable swing back to Labour before Friday’s (AEST) elections. Also: Joe Biden’s ratings after 100 days and German election polls.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

UK local government elections will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am Friday AEST. Elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments will also be held. Owing to COVID, no elections were held in 2020, so these elections will combine the normal 2021 with the rescheduled 2020 elections.

The key statistic for assessing the performance of the parties is the Projected National Share (PNS). This is calculated by assuming elections were held across the whole UK, correcting for bias in where elections were actually held.

In the 2016 cycle, which would normally have been up in 2020, the PNS was Labour 31%, Conservative 30%, Lib Dem 15% and UKIP 12%. In 2017, it was Conservative 38%, Labour 27% and Lib Dem 18%. The 2017 local elections were held a month before the 2017 general election at which the Conservatives lost their majority.

The Scottish and Welsh elections use first past the post with regional lists. Parties that win a large proportion of FPTP seats will earn few regional seats, so the system is far more proportional than the simple FPTP used at UK general elections and most councils.

National UK polls currently give the Conservatives about 42%, Labour 35%, the Lib Dems 8% and the Greens 5%. In the last week, two polls have shown a shift to Labour, with the Conservative lead in Survation dropping from six points to one, and in Opinium from 11 points to five. This narrowing has not been replicated in all polls. If it is real, perhaps it is attributable to PM Boris Johnson’s recent scandals.

In Scotland, the Britain Elects tracker has the Scottish National Party (SNP) on 62 of the 129 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives have 26 seats, Labour 25, the Greens 11 and Lib Dems five. This outcome would likely result in a continuation of the existing SNP/Green coalition. There has been a recent slide in SNP support in both FPTP and regional list polling, and No to independence has pulled ahead 51-49.

Labour is likely to remain the largest party at the Welsh election, though they will find it difficult to find a governing partner. In other important contests, Labour’s Sadiq Khan is certain to retain London’s mayoralty. There is also a Westminster by-election in Labour-held Hartlepool. In 2019, Labour would probably have lost Hartlepool, which they have held since 1964, if not for vote splitting between the Conservatives and Brexit party.

After first 100 days, Biden has 54% approval rating

It is 102 days since Joe Biden began his term as US president on January 20. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his ratings with all polls are 54.0% approve, 41.1% disapprove (net +12.9%). With polls of likely or registered voters, Biden’s ratings are 53.8% approve, 42.0% disapprove (net +11.8%). For the duration of his presidency, Biden’s approval has been between 53% and 55%.

FiveThirtyEight has ratings of presidents since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). At this stage of their presidencies, Biden’s net approval is only ahead of Donald Trump and Gerald Ford (who took over after Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974).

The US economy, boosted by stimulus payments, appears to be recovering very well from COVID, but attempted illegal immigration has surged since Biden became president. The key question is how Biden’s ratings look at the November 2022 midterms, when the president’s party normally loses seats.

Democrats performed badly at a federal House by-election in Texas on Saturday. Trump beat Biden by just three points in this district, but Republicans overall crushed Democrats 62-37. Democrats failed to make the top two, meaning the runoff will be R vs R.

Greens narrowly lead CDU/CSU in Germany

In January the moderate Armin Laschet won the CDU leadership, but was challenged for the joint leadership of the CDU/CSU by the CSU’s Markus Söder. The CSU only runs in the state of Bavaria, and is regarded as more right-wing than the CDU. On April 19, the CDU’s federal board ruled in Laschet’s favour by 31-9.

Since this vote, the Greens have surged into the mid to high 20’s, while the CDU/CSU has fallen to the low 20’s. Overall, the left-wing parties (Greens, Social Democrats and Left) are a little ahead of the right-wing parties (CDU/CSU, far-right AfD and pro-business FDP). Will this polling movement hold up until the German election on September 26? Germany uses proportional representation with a 5% threshold.