Category: British politics

UK Runcorn and Helsby by-election live

The far-right Reform is a good chance to win this by-election, and is likely to gain massively at local elections. Also: a wrap of Monday’s Canadian election.

Results wrap

According to Wikipedia, Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share (up 28 from the 2024 council elections), Labour 20% (down 14), the Lib Dems 17% (steady), the Tories 15% (down 10) and the Greens 11% (down two). If changes are measured from the last time these wards were contested in 2021, Reform is up 30, the Tories down 21, Labour down nine and the Lib Dems steady. It’s the first council elections where the combined share for the Tories and Labour has been below 50%.

With all 23 councils that held elections declared, Reform won 677 councillors (all new), the Lib Dems 370 (up 163), the Tories 317 (down 676), Labour 99 (down 186) and the Greens 80 (up 45). Councils controlled are 10 Reform (new), three Lib Dems (up three), zero Tories (down 16), zero Labour (down one) and ten with no overall control (up four). Of the six mayoralties contested, Labour won three, Reform two and the Tories one.

Live Commentary

8:48pm Slow progress in the council elections, with just over 150 out of over 1,600 total seats declared so far. Reform has 81 councillors (up 81), the Tories 42 (down 66), Labour 14 (down 13) and the Lib Dems nine (up five).

3:14pm Reform has GAINED Runcorn and Helsby from Labour by just six votes.

2:35pm Labour won the West of England and Doncaster mayoralties. In Doncaster, Labour was down 11 points to 32.6%, just ahead of Reform on 31.6% with 26.0% for the Tories. In W of England, Labour won25%, Reform 22%, the Greens 20%, the Tories 17% and the Lib Dems 14%.

1:55pm Labour won the North Tyneside mayoralty by 30.2-29.4 over Reform with 20.5% for the Tories. But Labour’s vote was down 23 points from 2021, while the Tories were down 11.

1:49pm There’s a recount in Runcorn and Helsby. It appears Reform were leading Labour by four votes going into the recount.

10:59am John Curtice says in nine wards that had the same boundaries as in 2021, the Tory vote is down 23 points and Labour down 10. The by-election declaration is expected about 12pm, which I’ll miss.

10:46am Friday So far Reform has won 15 councillors (up 15), the Tories six (down five) and Labour one (down nine).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

A UK parliamentary by-election will occur today for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated the far-right Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Liberal Democrats. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour. Elections covered in this article all use first past the post.

UK local government elections will also be held today. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Lib Dems. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually, PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 25.4% of the vote (up 1.5 since my April 19 article), Labour 23.9% (down 0.5), the Conservatives 21.3% (down 1.2), the Lib Dems 13.7% (up 0.1) and the Greens 8.9% (down 0.1). Reform has overtaken Labour to lead. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April gave Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

We are unlikely to see results from the parliamentary by-election until several hours after polls close. I will be out for two hours from 11am Friday. Given the proximity to the Australian election, I don’t intend to follow these elections as closely as I normally would.

Canadian election wrap

At Monday’s Canadian federal election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats (up nine from 160 of 338 in 2021), the Conservatives won 144 seats (up 25), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22 (down ten), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven (down 18) and the Greens one (down one). The Liberals were three seats short of the 172 needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals (up 11.1%), 41.3% Conservatives (up 7.6), 6.3% BQ (down 1.3%) (27.9% in Quebec), 6.3% NDP (down 11.5%), 1.3% Greens (down 1.0%) and 0.7% for the far-right People’s (down 4.2%). Turnout was 68.7% (up 6.4%).

This election was far more proportional than in 2021. FPTP can be roughly proportional, but only if the two biggest parties get a high combined vote share, and there’s a small gap between these two parties. This election had the highest two-party share since 1958. It resembles the UK 2017 election, when the big two parties also surged.

The CBC Poll Tracker’s final aggregate of national polls gave the Liberals a 42.8-39.2 lead over the Conservatives, so the 3.6-point margin slightly overstated the Liberals’ 2.4-point election margin. Two of the three polls that had one-day surveys conducted the day before the election were very accurate, with Liaison giving the Liberals a two-point lead and Nanos a 2.7-point lead.

Seat estimates overstated the Liberals with the Tracker’s point estimate giving the Liberals a 189-125 seat lead. I said previously that I expected the Liberals’ vote efficiency to drop because of the crash in NDP support.

I believe the Liberals slid from a peak lead of 7.1 points in the Tracker on April 8 due to Mark Carney’s fading honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau as PM on March 14. Labor in Australia is not affected by a fading honeymoon.

Canadian election live

Live commentary on the Canadian results today. The Liberals remain ahead of the Conservatives in national vote share, and have a good chance to win a majority of seats.

Live Commentary

6:57am Wednesday The Liberals will hold a minority government after winning 169 of the 343 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the BQ 22, the NDP seven and the Greens one. National vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP 1.3% Greens and just 0.7% for the far-right People’s.

9:06pm There are still special ballots remaining to be counted, which are cast by mail by voters who will be away from their home divisions on election day. I expect these to favour the Liberals just like absent votes favour Labor in Aus. Counting will resume at 11:30pm AEST tonight. On current figures, the Liberals will be just short of a majority of seats. They’ve won or are leading in 168 (172 is needed for a majority). Poilievre lost his seat.

5:33pm NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced he will resign. The Liberals won Singh’s seat.

4:25pm I’ve done a write-up for The Conversation on the Canadian results, and also covered Trump’s slumping US ratings. Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is looking gone in his own seat of Carleton.

2:57pm Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is trailing the Libs by 51.6-45.1 in his own seat of Carleton with 145 of 266 booths in.

2:47pm The Tories have made a number of gains in British Columbia from the collapse of the NDP vote as it hasn’t all gone to the Libs in NDP-held seats.

1:52pm The Tories have gained Windsor West from the NDP because the Lib surge meant the anti-Tory vote in that seat was split between the Libs and NDP.

1:45pm The Liberals have won or are leading in 163 seats, the Tories in 147, the BQ in 24, the NDP in 10 and the Greens in one. Popular votes are 42.6% Libs to 41.7% Tories, 7.9% BQ and 5.4% NDP. With such a high two-party share, the smaller parties are doing well to win as many seats as they are. It looks as if the Lib vote was not as efficiently distributed as in 2021, as I predicted.

1:02pm The CBC’s results are back. The Libs lead by 44.0-40.9 on popular votes with 8% for the BQ and 4.9% NDP. Seats are 159 Libs, 143 Tories, 24 BQ, 10 NDP and one Green. On current counts, the Libs will be short of a majority.

12:40pm With some results from 319 of the 343 seats, it’s 158 Libs, 130 Tories, 23 BQ and eight NDP. If this holds, it wouldn’t quite be a majority for the Libs.

12:27pm CTV News results has the Libs leading or elected in 146 seats, the Tories in 113, the BQ in 24 and the NDP in five.

12:20pm The CBC’s results site has crashed! But they project the Liberals will form the next government, no projection yet for whether it’s minority or majority.

12:07pm The Libs are leading the seat count now by 108-79 with 16 BQ and 3 NDP. They lead the popular vote by 50.6-38.5. This is now looking like a Liberal landslide.

12:04pm The CBC has called a Lib GAIN from Tory in a Nova Scotia seat.

11:58am So far in Ontario, the most populous province with 121 seats, the Libs lead the Tories by 32-22 in seats although the Tories are leading on popular votes by 47.5-45.7. Rural booths are probably reporting first, so it’s likely there’s a pro-Tory bias in votes counted so far.

11:52am Libs leading in seats by 72-52 over Tories with 10 BQ and 1 NDP.

11:40am Libs now leading the seat count over the Tories by 37-26 on popular votes of 51.5-40.1. BQ leading in 12 seats and NDP in one.

11:29am With polls about to close in the large majority of Canada, Libs lead in seats by 22-10 and in popular votes by 52.2-40.4. Two Quebec seats were in Atlantic time and have reported results, with the BQ leading in both.

11:08am Liberal popular vote lead now just over ten points.

10:52am Liberals’ popular vote margin over the Tories up to eight points. I’ve read comments here from BTsays that pollsters had the Libs doing better with early votes than on election day. These votes won’t appear until later.

10:32am The CBC has called a GAIN for the Tories from the Libs in Long Range Mountain.

10:29am The Liberals are now leading the seat count by 22-9 and the vote count by 50-44. But they’re NOT 21 points ahead in Atlantic Canada.

10:06am The Liberals have now taken a three-point lead in popular votes.

10:01am The Liberals lead the Tories by 16 seats to 5, but the Tories lead in popular votes currently by 48-46. This isn’t looking like a 21-point Liberal popular vote margin in Atlantic Canada, but perhaps votes counted are mostly rural and/or the Liberals will do better once the pre-poll votes are counted.

9:44am In Newfoundland, the 2021 result was a Liberal win by 47.7-32.5 in popular votes over the Tories and the Liberals won six of the seven seats. Currently the Tories are leading by 52.1-42.5 in popular votes, although the Liberals are leading in four of the seven seats. Perhaps votes counted so far are more rural.

9:07am The first polls have closed in one of the small Atlantic provinces that’s 30 minutes ahead of the rest of Atl Can. The CBC results are here.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Results for the Canadian federal election will be out today. First past the post is used to elect the 343 MPs, with 172 seats required for a majority. Polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats close by 9:30am AEST. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters. Canadian media don’t attempt to use booth-matched results. Seat totals are reported as “won” (called for a candidate) and “leading”.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated for the final time late Sunday (the last pre-election day), and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.8% of the vote (up 0.5 since my previous Canadian article on Saturday), the Conservatives 39.2% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.1% (down 0.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (steady) (26.1% in Quebec), the Greens 1.8% (down 0.5) and the far-right People’s 1.3% (down 0.1).

Seat point estimates are 189 Liberals (down one since Saturday), 125 Conservatives (steady), 23 BQ (up one), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 70% chance of a majority, down from 73% previously. They have a 19% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. The Conservatives have a 10% chance to win the most seats and just a 1% chance of a majority. The polls would need to be very wrong for this to occur.

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the Tracker has fallen from its peak of 7.1 points on April 8 to 3.6 points now. The most likely reason for this movement is that Mark Carney’s honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau on March 14 as Liberal leader and PM has faded.

On Saturday night, at least 11 people were killed when an SUV drove into a crowd of Filipinos in Vancouver. This was likely a racist attack against Filipinos, so it shouldn’t hurt the Liberals. In Liaison, Nanos and Forum polls conducted Sunday (one-day polls), the Liberal lead was respectively 2, 2.7 and 4 points.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election on Thursday

UK local government elections and aparliamentary by-election in Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. I don’t expect results from the by-election for several hours after polls close. I previously covered these elections on April 19.

Canadian election minus nine days

The Liberal lead drops slightly, but they are still likely to win a seat majority on April 28. Also covered: the May 1 UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 43.7% of the vote (down 0.3 since my previous Canadian article on April 10), the Conservatives 37.7% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (steady), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (steady) (23.7% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (steady) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (down four since my April 10 article), 122 Conservatives (up six), 18 BQ (down two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 87% previously. The Liberal lead had dropped to 5.3 points in Thursday’s Tracker update before recovering on Friday.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in very safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

There were two leaders’ debates: a French debate on Wednesday and an English debate on Thursday. Both debates had the leaders of the NDP and BQ as well as the Liberal and Conservative leaders. A snap Abacus Data poll, taken after the English debate, gave Liberal leader and PM Mark Carney a net +37 positive rating, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a net +23 positive rating. The NDP and BQ leaders did not impress voters.

We will need to wait three more days for voting intention polls to be fully taken after both debates. These debates were probably the last opportunity for a Conservative revival before the election. Unless the polls are significantly overstating the Liberals, the Liberals should win.

In an early April YouGov Canadian poll, by 64-25, respondents said the US was unfriendly or an enemy (50-33 in February). By 84-11, they opposed Canada becoming part of the US. If they had been able to vote in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump by 57-18 among Canadians.

UK local elections and parliamentary by-election

UK local government elections will be held on May 1. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the far-right Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Labour 24.4% of the vote, Reform 23.9%, the Conservatives 22.5%, the Lib Dems 13.6% and the Greens 9.0%. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 1 for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Lib Dems. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour.

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

Irish election vote counting live

Updates on the Irish vote counting from tonight. Also covered: near-final US election results, UK news and polls and other recent European elections.

9:41am Tuesday With all 174 seats declared, it’s 48 FF, 39 SF, 38 FG, 11 Labour, 11 Social Democrats, four Independent Ireland, three People Before Profit, two Aontu, one Green, 16 independents and one other. Adding FF and FG gives 86 seats for the two main conservative parties, only two short of a majority. They’ll retain their governing coalition with support from either Independent Ireland or some of the independents.

9:16am Monday With 130 of 174 seats declared it’s 34 FF, 30 SF, 29 FG, nine Social Democrats, eight Labour, three Independent Ireland (right-wing), three People before Profit, two Aontu (conservative, anti-abortion), one Green and 11 independents. Final vote shares were 21.9% FF, 20.8% FG, 19.0% SF, under 5% for various other parties and 13.2% for independents.

10:50pm There’s still one electorate that hasn’t yet reported its first preference count. So far 46 of the 174 seats have been declared, with FF and FG both doing better than SF.

10:40am It’s now 11:40pm Saturday in Ireland, and nearly 15 hours after counting started there are still four of 43 electorates that haven’t yet completed their first preference counts. I don’t think pre-poll or postal votes were allowed, so this is slow progress.

9:53am With 36 of 43 electorates having completed their first preference count, SF is down 6.0% from 2020 and the Greens down 4.5%. The biggest gainer is the right-wing Independent Ireland (up 3.6%, new), with the Social Democrats up 2.4% and the conservative Aontu up 2.1%. The two main conservative parties, FF and FG, are roughly flat compared with 2020.

6:49am Sunday With 20 of 43 electorates having completed their first preference counts, SF is down 6.9% from 2020 on a matched electorate basis and the Greens are down 4.9%. The gains are going to independents (up 4.0%) and other small parties, with FF and FG both down 1%. Completed electorates so far are mainly in Dublin, so overall vote shares still look close between the top three parties. But a 6.9% swing against SF from 2020 would give them only 17.6%.

11:02pm With all votes counted in Dublin Central, SF leader Mary Lou McDonald has 20%, which is down 16% from what she got in this seat in 2020. If this is repeated in other seats, SF will do much worse than polls indicate. There won’t be official results posted until all first preference counting has been completed in an electorate.

9:46pm Irish broadcaster RTE has a live blog with reports of counts of ballot boxes that have been opened so far. However, I can’t see any information about the overall totals, only information on particular electorates presented without any swing info.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Irish election was held on Friday, but vote counting doesn’t start until 9am Saturday in Ireland (8pm AEDT). Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates, with three to five members per electorate. It will take at least a few days to get the final number of MPs for each party.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 2023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. Pre-election polls suggest SF support has recovered slightly, and there’s a three-way tie between the leading parties, but the two conservative parties are likely to form a coalition government.

US election near-final results

With nearly all votes counted for the November 5 US election, Donald Trump won the presidency by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump swept the seven key states of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan. He won the popular vote by 49.8-48.3 (77.15 million votes to 74.75 million). In 2020 Joe Biden had defeated Trump by 306 electoral votes to 232 on a popular vote margin of 51.3-46.8 (81.3 million votes to 74.2 million).

All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election every two years. Republicans won the House by a narrow 220-215 margin, a two-seat gain for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

Each of the 50 states has two senators, with one-third up for election every two years. Before this election, Democrats and allied independents held a 51-49 Senate majority, but they were defending 23 of the 33 seats up, including three in states Trump won easily. Republicans gained these three seats and also Pennsylvania, to take a 53-47 Senate majority. But Democrats defended their seats in four of the five presidential key states that also held Senate elections.

UK news and polls

On November 2, Kemi Badenoch was elected Conservative leader, defeating Robert Jenrick in a Conservative members’ vote by 56.5-43.5. Both candidates had qualified by not getting eliminated in the rounds of Conservative MPs’ votes.

Labour’s lead has dropped quickly, and they’re in a rough tie with the Conservatives, with two recent polls giving the Conservatives a lead. Reform has about 18%, the Liberal Democrats 12% and the Greens 8%. In other news, there’s a push by Labour MPs to change the electoral system from first past the post to proportional representation.

Lithuania, Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania

Of the 141 Lithuanian seats, 71 are elected in single-member electorates using a two-round system and the remaining 70 by national PR. At October 13 and 27 elections, the centre-left LSDP won 52 seats (up 39 since 2020), the conservative TS-LKD 28 (down 22), the populist PPNA 20 (new), the green DSVL 14 (new) and a green-conservative party eight (down 24). The LSDP formed a governing coalition with the PPNA and DSVL.

At the November 3 Moldovan presidential runoff, the pro-western incumbent defeated the pro-Russian candidate by a 55.4-44.6 margin.

Owing to failure to form a lasting government, there have been six elections in Bulgaria since 2021, with the latest on October 27. PR in multi-member electorates was used to allocate the 240 seats with a 4% national threshold. It appears unlikely that a government will be formed after this election.

In the first round of the Romanian presidential election on November 24, a far-right and pro-Russsia independent topped the poll with 22.9%, followed by a pro-EU candidate on 19.18%, a centre-left candidate on 19.15% and another right-wing candidate on 13.9%. A recount is being held to determine who finishes second and proceeds to the December 8 runoff.

US presidential election minus four weeks

Bad polls for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan. Also covered: the UK Conservative leadership election, the far-right wins the most seats in Austria and Japan’s October 27 election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5.  In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.3-46.1 lead over Donald Trump (49.3-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday).  In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote.  Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

The New York Times released polls from the highly regarded Siena on Tuesday, which had good and bad news for Harris.  Siena’s national poll gave Harris a 49-46 lead, her best position in this poll.  But Trump led by a thumping 55-41 in Florida, which used to be a swing state.  This caused Silver’s Florida aggregate to move two points in Trump’s favour, and he now leads by 5.5 points there.

On Wednesday, Quinnipiac polls of Wisconsin and Michigan gave Trump 2-3 point leads, though Harris had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania.  Silver’s model now gives Harris a 53.5% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% on Monday.  There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College.  The FiveThirtyEight model is now very close to Silver, with Harris a 53% chance to win.

Two right-wing candidates to contest UK Conservative leadership

As in previous UK Conservative leadership elections, the final two candidates are selected by Conservative MPs, with Conservative party members to choose between these final candidates.  At Wednesday’s final round of MPs’ votes, the right-wing Kemi Badenoch won 42 of the 120 votes, the right-wing Robert Jenrick 41 and the more centrist James Cleverly 37. 

Cleverly had easily won the previous round of MPs’ votes on Tuesday with 39 votes, followed by Jenrick on 31 and Badenoch on 30.  It’s likely that a tactical voting blunder caused him to finish third and be eliminated, with some of his supporters voting for Jenrick as they thought Cleverly had a better chance to beat Jenrick than Badenoch in the members’ vote.

Members will now decide between Badenoch and Jenrick by an online vote, with the final result to be announced November 2.  A late September YouGov poll of Conservative members gave Badenoch a 41-38 lead over Jenrick.

Labour and PM Keir Starmer’s dreadful start to the term continues, with a recent More in Common poll giving Labour just a 29-28 lead over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform and 11% for the Liberal Democrats, although three other early October polls gave Labour 5-8 point leads.  The latest two polls that have asked about Starmer’s ratings have him at net -30 (Opinium) and net -36 (YouGov).

Far-right wins most seats in Austria

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold to elect its 183 seats.  At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 seats (up 26 since the 2019 election), the conservative ÖVP 51 seats (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). 

The FPÖ had its best result in an Austrian election and it was the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats.  However, the FPÖ is well short of the 92 seats needed for a majority.  The ÖVP and the Greens had formed a coalition government after the 2019 election.  A coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ is the only way to keep the FPÖ out of government.

Japanese election: October 27

The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed government after every Japanese election since 1955 except after the 2009 election.  Of the 465 lower house seats, 289 are elected by first-past-the-post, while the remaining 176 are elected using proportional representation in 11 multi-member electorates.

This election is being held a year early after Shigeru Ishiba replaced Fumio Kishida as LDP leader and PM on September 27 and called an early election.  Polls indicate the LDP is far ahead of their nearest party rival, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats, but there’s a large “no party” vote.  The LDP should easily win yet another election.

US presidential election minus six weeks

Kamala Harris a slight favourite to win in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: two Canadian by-elections, a dreadful poll for Keir Starmer, France’s new Prime Minister, a German state election and a socialist wins in Sri Lanka.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.

Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.

Canada looking bleak for Liberals

Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.

At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.

The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.

UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka

In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.

At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.

I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.

At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.

US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

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