Category: British politics

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The French presidential runoff election will occur Sunday, with all polls closed by 4am Monday AEST.  Incumbent Emmanuel Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen will contest this election after finishing top two in the first round.  Polls have Macron leading by about 56-44, up from 52-48 before the first round.  An almost three hour TV debate between Macron and Le Pen occurred early Thursday morning AEST; polls don’t yet account for any debate impact.

In the April 10 first round, Macron was first with 27.8%, with Le Pen winning the second runoff spot with 23.2%.  The far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon was a close third with 22.0%, followed by the more far-right Éric Zemmour with 7.1%, conservative Valérie Pécresse with 4.8% and the Greens’ Yannick Jadot with 4.6%.

In my results commentary, I said that polls understated Mélenchon (by about five points) and overstated the other right-wing candidates (Zemmour and Pécresse).  On this basis, it’s more likely that the polls are understating Macron than overstating him; he was understated at the 2017 election.

The first round was a terrible result for the two former French major parties, with Pécresse a distant fifth and barely ahead of the Greens, while the Socialist candidate won just 1.7%.  If Macron wins this election, he will be term limited in 2027, so can the former majors recover, or will 2027 be a contest between far-right and far-left candidates?

US and UK developments

Joe Biden’s ratings remain in negative double digits in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, with 52.6% currently disapproving and 41.9% approving (net -10.7).  US inflation was up 1.2% in March alone, and up 8.5% in the 12 months to March.  As a result, real weekly earnings dropped 1.1% in March and are down 3.6% in the 12 months to March.

Florida Republican governor Ron DeSantis and the Republican legislature had disagreed over redistricting of Florida’s 28 Congressional Districts.  But the legislature yielded to DeSantis, and his map is likely to be approved this week.  This map would give Republicans 18 seats, Democrats eight and competitive two, with changes from the current 27-seat map of Republicans up four and competitive down three.  There’s speculation that DeSantis could run for president in 2024.

The Conservatives continue to drop in the UK polls, with Labour now leading by about eight points  Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak were fined by the police over Partygate, with those fines revealed April 12.  Neither has resigned.  Sunak, who was once very popular, had a 62-32 poor rating for being chancellor in a DeltaPoll while 69% said cost of living was an important problem facing them, far higher than the 31% for the next ranking economy.  UK local council elections will be held May 5.

A parliamentary by-election will occur in Wakefield after the Conservative MP resigned following a conviction for child sexual assault.  Wakefield had been Labour-held since 1932 before they lost it in 2019 on a 47.3-39.8 Conservative margin with 6.1% Brexit party and 3.9% Liberal Democrats.  At the 2016 Brexit referendum, Wakefield voted Leave by 62.6-37.4.

Australian electorate maps

William Bowe covered my electorate maps for The Conversation on Thursday.  They are different to most maps in that darker red or blue colours are used for safer Labor and Coalition seats.  The Conversation’s graphics editor created the maps, but it’s my commentary.

Live Commentary

9:21am Tuesday Final first round results: 27.8% Macron, 23.2% Le Pen, 22.0% Melenchon, 7.1% Zemmour and 4.8% Pecresse, who finished just ahead of the Greens’ Jadot (4.6%). Macron and Le Pen advance to the April 24 runoff, with Macron the clear favourite.

12:01pm Narrowing of the Le Pen Melenchon gap with 97% still in. Now 27.6% Macron, 23.4% Le Pen and 22.0% Melenchon. I believe this reflects late counting from Paris.

11:35am Very slow counting of the final votes, but with 97% in, Macron has 27.4%, Le Pen 24.0% and Melenchon 21.7%.

8:16am With 88% counted, Macron leads with 27.4%, Le Pen has 24.9% and Melenchon 20.5%. The Le Pen-Melenchon gap is expected to close further.

7:09am A new projection has Melenchon closing in on Le Pen; he now trails her by just 23.0% to 22.2%. These projections are of the final result.

6:55am Here are the official French results with 71% reporting. I don’t think Paris is in yet, so Macron’s lead over Le Pen will expand.

6:31am Hungarian results below updated to reflect final results, slightly improving the opposition’s position.

6:18am This is better for Macron than pre-election polls expected. He’s doing two points better (28% vs 26%), with Le Pen about as expected with 23%. Melenchon is about four points better than expected (21% vs 17%), Zemmour is on 7.3% vs around 9% expected, and Pecresse is on just 5.0% vs 8% expected. So the overall right-wing vote is far less than what the polls expected. On this basis, Macron is the clear favourite to win the April 24 runoff.

6:10am Monday This is a projection of final French results given current figures.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first round of the French presidential election is today, with all polls closed by 4am AEST Monday. The top two candidates will advance to an April 24 runoff. The abysmal polling at the April 3 Hungarian election could have implications for polling in other countries, so I will discuss Hungary first.

The far-right Fidesz crushed the united opposition by a 54.1-34.5 margin in the 93-seat proportional representation list. This 20-point margin far exceeded even the best polls for Fidesz, which gave it about a ten-point lead. The worst polls gave Fidesz just a 3-5 point lead, with a late poll tied.

Fidesz won the 106 first-past-the-post seats 87-19, on a vote margin of 52.5-36.9. Overall, Fidesz won 135 of the 199 seats (up two on 2018), the opposition 57 (down eight) and an extreme right party six by exceeding the 5% threshold for the PR seats. This is the fourth successive term for Fidesz since they were first elected in 2010.

Vladimir Putin congratulated Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after this crushing victory. As I wrote last time, Putin and Orbán have been decade-long friends.  The US Conservative Political Action Conference will convene in Hungary in May – far-right comradeship.

French polls

For the first round, incumbent Emmanuel Macron leads with about 26%, with the far-right Marine Le Pen on about 23% and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon on about 17%. The more far-right Éric Zemmour and conservative Valérie Pécresse have continued to fade to below 10%. It’s unlikely but possible for Mélenchon to knock out Le Pen, with one poll having him just three points behind her.

An AtlasIntel poll conducted April 4-6 gave Le Pen a 50.5-49.5 runoff lead over Macron, but all other recent polls still give Macron a runoff lead, with the average at around 52-48 to Macron. French polls in 2017 understated Macron, but Hungarian polls badly understated the far-right. If candidates under or overperform their polls in the first round, that’s likely a clue as to which candidates will under or overperform in the runoff. Macron still beats Mélenchon by about 57-43.

I think the most important reason for Macron’s recent slump against Le Pen is inflation; people hate seeing price rises on food and petrol. This is an anti-incumbent factor that is probably assisting Labor in Australia’s federal election.

Other matters: Ukraine, the US, the UK and Pakistan

After Putin invaded Ukraine, the Russian ruble plunged against the US dollar owing to Western sanctions. But the ruble has now rebounded to where it was before the invasion began. As long as Western countries continue to buy Russian oil and gas, the sanctions are proving impotent.

Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed Thursday by the US Senate to replace Stephen Breyer on the Supreme Court when he retires by early July. The vote was 53-47, with three Republicans joining all 50 Democrats. Jackson is the first Black woman on the Supreme Court, but she replaces a left-wing judge and will make no difference to the 6-3 right majority.

Inflation has likely caused the UK Conservatives to again drop further behind Labour after recovering from Partygate, with Labour’s lead in recent polls up from low single to mid-single figures. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has come under scrutiny after revelations that his wife used a loophole to avoid paying tax. UK local elections will occur May 5.

Former Pakistani cricketer Imran Khan became Prime Minister, but was defeated in a parliamentary no-confidence vote Saturday. The current opposition leader is likely to win a parliamentary vote Monday to become Pakistan’s next PM.

12:29pm Friday UK Labour has retained Birmingham Erdington at a by-election by a 55.5-36.3 margin over the Conservatives, up from 50-40 at the 2019 election. The Lib Dems and Greens had about 1% each.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Vladimir Putin began Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Historically, attempts to conquer sovereign countries have not been unusual. Alexander the Great and Napoleon are still famed as conquerors. The Roman empire did much conquering, and European colonial powers were very cruel to native populations. The UK’s Queen Elizabeth is the descendant of William the Conqueror, who conquered England in 1066.

Occasionally invasions by more powerful countries are repelled. Two examples from the UK are Scotland repelling England in the 14th century, and the UK repelling the Nazis early in WW2. But in most cases, the only feasible protection for smaller countries is to be allied to bigger powers that will fight if the smaller ones are invaded.

Putin’s gamble was that the West would not send major military equipment, such as tanks, warships and aircraft, to support Ukraine. Without this support, it is likely that weight of numbers will eventually allow Russia to conquer Ukraine. While sanctions will damage the Russian economy, they won’t stop the Russian tanks or artillery. In a drawn-out invasion, civilian casualties will be high.

I am sceptical that Ukraine will continue to resist if conquered. Tyrannical regimes are effective at brutally suppressing dissent. There isn’t news anymore about Chechnya, which rebelled against Russia in the 2000s.

The polling is not like the reaction to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The only leader who has received a massive jump is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose approval surged 59 points since December to 91%.

US: Biden’s ratings down, 62% say invasion wouldn’t have occurred under Trump

In the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, 53.0% disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance and 41.5% approve (net -11.5). Biden’s net approval has dropped about one point since the invasion.

In a poll conducted at the start of the invasion, 62%, including 38% of Democrats, thought Putin would not have invaded had Donald Trump still been president. 59% thought Putin ordered the invasion because he saw weakness in Biden, while 41% thought Biden was not a factor.

I believe this polling highlights that the fallout from the Afghanistan troop withdrawal in August 2021 has crippled Biden on any national security issue. It also continues to affect his ratings on eg the economy because voters have lost confidence in his competence.

In US redistricting news, courts in North Carolina and Pennsylvania have finalised new maps. The new NC map was created after courts rejected a Republican gerrymander, while Pennsylvanian courts resolved a dispute between the Democratic governor and Republican legislature. In Ohio, Republicans used their majority on a redistricting commission to pass a gerrymander, but it is likely to be rejected by state courts.

Overall, there are currently 179 Democratic-leaning seats in the FiveThirtyEight tracker, 171 Republican-leaning and 33 competitive. Democrats are up 11 seats from the old maps, Republicans down six and competitive down six.

Biden nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace the retiring Stephen Breyer on the US Supreme Court. If confirmed by a simple majority in the Senate, Jackson will be the first Black woman Supreme Court judge. But she will replace a left-wing judge, and the 6-3 right majority will be retained.

France: a Macron vs Le Pen runoff more likely

The first round of the French presidential election will occur April 10, with a runoff April 24 between the top two. Since the Ukraine invasion, incumbent Emmanuel Macron has gained to be in the mid to high 20s from the mid 20s. The latest polls suggest the far-right Marine Le Pen has moved ahead of both the more far-right Éric Zemmour and conservative Valérie Pécresse.

Pécresse had appeared to be the most competitive runoff opponent for Macron, but the latest two runoff polls have Macron winning by about 60-40. Le Pen is now closest, with Macron leading her by about 56-44.

UK: Little change as Labour faces by-election

The Ukraine invasion has not changed the polls very much in the UK, with Labour ahead of the Conservatives by a low single digit margin, reflecting a continuing recovery for Boris Johnson from “Partygate”.

Polls close at 9am AEDT Friday for a by-election in Birmingham Erdington, which Labour won by a 50-40 margin over the Conservatives in 2019.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Redistricting of the 435 Congressional Districts for US federal House elections occurs once a decade based on the Census. Some states use independent commissions, but in most a party that has control of the legislature and governor can gerrymander. Sometimes state courts reject gerrymanders.

In the FiveThirtyEight tracker, there are 160 Democratic-leaning seats, 141 Republican-leaning seats and 26 competitive seats in new maps. Changes from the previous maps are Democrats up 11, Republicans down three and competitive down eight.

Democrats in New York used their control of the state legislature and governor to impose a likely 22-4 Democratic gerrymander of NY’s CDs, up from the current 19-8 delegation. Republicans still controlled the state Senate in 2010, the last redistricting year. In other good redistricting news for Democrats, the North Carolina state courts rejected a Republican gerrymander, joining Ohio in doing this.

A three-judge federal court with two Trump appointees required a second Black opportunity seat in Alabama. But the Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 right majority, put a stay on this decision in a 5-4 judgment until they hear the case. The 6-1 Republican map passed by the legislature will stay for at least the 2022 elections.

Joe Biden’s ratings remain poor, with 53.1% disapproving and 41.9% approving in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate (net -11.2). He has almost overtaken Trump in having the worst net approval of any president at this stage in their term since approval polling began with Truman (1945-53).

Inflation increased 0.6% in January for a 12-month rate of 7.5%,, the highest since 1982, as 12-month real weekly wages dropped 3.1%. Given the Afghanistan fallout, it’s unlikely a Russian invasion of the Ukraine will boost Biden’s ratings.

UK: Boris Johnson still PM

In my previous article in late January, it had appeared likely that the 54 no-confidence letters from Conservative MPs needed to trigger a full confidence vote in Boris Johnson would be submitted soon. But they were not submitted in the next three parliamentary weeks, and there is a parliamentary recess this week, giving Johnson respite until at least February 21.

There are still dangers for Johnson. The first is being fined by the police over the parties held during lockdown he attended. But an aspect that has angered the public is that Johnson and his colleagues have got away with clear rule breaches, when the police would have jumped on ordinary people who held lockdown parties. If Johnson is seen to be punished, that could assuage public anger.

A second danger for Johnson is if the Conservatives get thrashed at the May 5 local elections. Electricity and gas bills will rise 54% for a typical household in April – terrible timing for Johnson and Conservative councilor candidates.

Previously, I suggested voters could move on from the “PartyGate” affair. The last three UK polls have had Labour’s lead over the Conservatives dropping to 3-5 points from the high single digits polls previously gave Labour.

The Conservatives retained Southend West at a February 3 by-election with 86% of the vote. Owing to the murder of the previous MP, no other party with a national profile contested.

Majority for centre-left Socialists in Portugal

At the January 30 Portuguese election, the Socialists won 119 of the 230 seats (up 11 since 2019), the conservative Social Democrats 73 (down one), the far-right Chega 12 (up 11), the right-wing Liberal Initiative eight (up seven) and two far-left parties, who were blamed for the early election, won 11 combined seats (down 20).

Popular votes were 41.5% Socialists, 27.8% Social Democrats, 7.3% Chega, 4.9% Liberal Initiative and 8.7% for the far-left, with the Socialists outperforming the polls. Portugal uses proportional representation, but distributes its seats on a regional basis; this allows bigger parties to win more seats than using national PR.

French elections: April 10 and 24

The first round of the French presidential election will be held April 10, with a runoff April 24. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is in a clear first place in the first round with about 24%, but the second runoff position could plausibly go to any of the far-right Marine Le Pen, the conservative Valérie Pécresse or the even more far-right Éric Zemmour. In runoff polls, Macron gets over 60% against Zemmour, about 56% against Le Pen and about 54% against Pécresse.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

For a UK Conservative leader to be ousted, the first step is for 15% of the party’s MPs to send letters expressing no confidence to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady. As there are currently 359 Conservatives in the House of Commons, 54 letters expressing no confidence in Boris Johnson are required.

If this first threshold is met, there is a secret ballot of all Conservative MPs. If the leader wins this confidence vote, they cannot be challenged for another year, although this rule could be amended. If the leader loses, they would be expected to be a caretaker PM until the next leader is elected.

Last week there was speculation that an announcement that Brady had received the 54 letters was imminent, but it did not occur. Johnson’s danger is due to the parties that were held while the UK was in COVID lockdown at Downing Street. This caused a slump for the Conservatives in the polls in December. The Conservatives regained some ground in early January, only for even more party revelations to crash their vote again. Some Conservatives may be waiting for Sue Gray’s report into the parties, expected next week, before moving against Johnson.

It was bad timing for Johnson that these party revelations came when the UK was suffering another COVID wave due to Omicron. This made people’s memories of past lockdowns more vivid, and so the parties resonated more than they would otherwise. In good news for Johnson, the Omicron wave is subsiding, with cases way down from their peak and hospitalisations also starting to fall.

I am dubious that ousting Johnson would be in the Conservatives’ electoral interests. While Johnson is very unpopular now, voters tend to move past non-recurring issues. The parties occurred in the last two years, and are unlikely to cause voters additional pain in the future. As the UK COVID situation improves, voters are likely to move past the parties.

Another argument against removing Johnson is that he “got Brexit done”. At the 2019 election, non-uni whites swung strongly to the Conservatives over Johnson’s promise to “get Brexit done” – see my Conversation article last May. Will these voters remain Conservative under another Conservative PM?

Democrats gain in US redistricting, but Biden’s ratings remain poor

A US Census is held every ten years, with the boundaries of Congressional Districts set for ten years by that Census. Most states have completed redistricting of their CDs from the 2020 Census. The FiveThirtyEight tracker says that there are 129 Democratic-leaning seats, 124 Republican-leaning seats and 21 highly competitive seats in the new maps so far. The changes from the old maps are Democrats up seven, Republicans up one and competitive down six.

While some states use nonpartisan commissions to draw their maps, in most states redistricting is up to politicians. If one party holds the governor and both chambers of the legislature in a state, that party can gerrymander. Republican-controlled Florida (28 CDs) and Democratic New York (26) are the two biggest states still to complete redistricting. A Republican gerrymander in Ohio was rejected by the state courts, and this could also occur in North Carolina.

Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate are currently 53.5% disapprove, 41.9% approve (net -11.6). They have worsened recently owing to the recent COVID surge. There has been no recent progress with the Democratic legislative agenda. Inflation over the full 2021 year was 7.0%, the highest since 1982. A recent CBS YouGov poll indicates voters think Biden is not focussed enough on combatting inflation.

French, Portuguese and Chile developments

The first round of the French presidential election is on April 10, with a runoff between the top two on April 24. Conservative Valérie Pécresse has slipped behind the far-right Marine Le Pen in the race for second with incumbent Emmanuel Macron well ahead in first. Macron easily beats Le Pen, but it’s closer against Pécresse.

A Portuguese election will be held on January 30, with 230 seats elected by proportional representation. Polls indicate a close contest between the overall left and overall right. Portugal currently has a left government.

At the December 19 Chilean presidential runoff election, left-wing Boric defeated the far-right Kast by 55.9-44.1.