Category: Israeli politics

UK and other countries’ polls

How the polls are going in the UK, major western European countries and in three countries that hold elections in 2026.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Instead of an article about an international election, this article covers polls in eight countries. In the UK, the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has the far-right Reform leading with 27.3%, followed by the Conservatives at 20.0%, Labour at 18.5%, the Liberal Democrats at 14.1% and the Greens at 13.9%.

Labour’s long slide since winning the 2024 election has continued as they’ve fallen into third place, while the Conservatives have recently regained ground from Reform. The Greens have been rising since early September.

With the UK’s first past the post system, Reform would win a narrow majority at an election held now, with 330 of the 650 House of Commons seats. Labour would win just 82 seats, the Lib Dems 77, the Conservatives 55, the Scottish National Party 46 and the Greens 26.

All recent polls have PM Keir Starmer’s net approval below -40, with a YouGov poll giving him his worst score at -61 (76% negative, 15% positive). While Reform leader Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s net approvals are both in double digit negative territory, they are much better than Starmer’s.

Polls in major western European countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain)

Since the February German election, the far-right AfD has continued to rise, and is now just ahead or tied with the conservative CDU/CSU in recent polls. At the election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%. There has been no recovery in the combined vote for the three main left-wing parties: the centre-left SPD, Greens and Left, with these parties polling 35-37% combined (36.8% combined at the election).

The next French presidential election will be held in April 2027 using a two-round system. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run owing to term limits. The far-right National Rally’s Marine le Pen was disqualified by a court decision, but substitute Jordan Bardella is in the mid-30s for the first round, far ahead of any other candidate. Bardella’s most likely runoff opponent is Édouard Philippe, Macron’s PM from 2017-20. Polls suggest a rough tie in this runoff scenario.

The next Italian election is due by December 2027, with 37% elected by FPTP and the rest by proportional representation. Polls have the right-wing alliance (PM Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy, the far-right League and the conservative Forza Italia) leading the left-wing alliance (the centre-left Democrats, left-wing Five Stars and the Greens) by high 40s to low 40s. The overall support for right and left parties hasn’t changed much since the 2022 election.

The next Spanish election is due by August 2027, using multi-member PR to elect the lower house. The centre-left Socialists have governed since 2018, but most polls have the conservative People’s and far-right Vox combined winning over 50%, and they will easily win a combined majority of lower house seats on these vote shares. There’s been a continued rise in Vox’s vote since the 2023 election.

Polls in countries with 2026 elections (Brazil, New Zealand and Israel)

Legislative and presidential elections will be held in Brazil in October, with the president elected using a two-round system. Centre-left incumbent Lula is far ahead in the first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (now in jail), his most likely runoff opponent. Most polls have Lula beating Bolsonaro Jr in the runoff, with a closer hypothetical race against the conservative Tarcísio de Freitas.

The New Zealand election is due by next December, with parties either needing at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to be allocated a proportional share of seats. Polls have the three right-wing parties combined (National, ACT and NZ First) narrowly leading the three left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Maori). The gap between the blocs closed in early 2025, but has widened again recently.

The Israeli election is due by October using national PR with a 3.25% threshold. In most polls, PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has about 50 of the 120 Knesset seats, well below the 61 needed for a majority. However, the opposition bloc also doesn’t have a majority, with unaligned parties (mainly Arab) having the remaining seats. The Netanyahu-aligned Filber and Direct Polls have a right-wing majority.

New York City Democratic mayoral primary election live

Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo is the favourite to win today’s Democratic mayoral nomination, but a late poll has a socialist ahead.

Live Commentary

5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.

12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.

11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.

11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.

11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.

Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.

It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.

Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.

Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.

Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.

Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls

At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.

The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.

Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.

Israeli election live

Netanyahu’s bloc ahead and could win a majority in Israel; live commentary from Wednesday morning.

Live Commentary

12:13pm Friday Nearly all votes have now been counted, and Meretz (3.16%) is still below the 3.25% threshold, while Balad has slid to 2.90%. According to Wikipedia, current results would give Netanyahu’s bloc 64 of the 120 Knesset seats.

9:20pm With the count now at 93.0%, Balad had been going backwards and is now at 2.96%, 0.29% below the 3.25% threshold. Meretz is also still below the threshold at 3.15%. But even if Meretz crosses the threshold, Netanyahu will have a majority. It’s time to call it. Projection: Netanyahu’s bloc will win a Knesset majority. That means the era of frequent Israeli elections is likely over, and the next election won’t be held for about four years.

7:52am Count now up to 88.8%, little change in results. If the Joint Arab List had not split into Hadash Ta’al and Balad, the combined total vote for that list may have denied Netanyahu a majority if Meretz had also crossed the threshold. By splitting, they risked Netanyahu winning a majority if one of the new parties didn’t make the threshold, and Balad is unlikely to make it.

6:41am Thursday With 87.6% counted, little change on the previous results, with Meretz (3.19%) and Balad (3.03%) still below the 3.25% threshold. Remaining votes should be counted over the next few days with the final result to be declared next Wednesday.

7:24pm With 84.3% counted, little change with Meretz (3.20%) and Balad (3.05%) still below the 3.25% threshold. On current numbers, a Haaretz update gives Netanyahu’s bloc 65 of the 120 seats. The only realistic hope for the anti-Netanyahu parties is for both Meretz and Balad to cross the threshold.

6:19pm That last batch was left-leaning, with Netanyahu’s bloc down to a combined 48.1%.

6:16pm With 79.8% counted, Meretz is up to 3.23%, just below the 3.25% threshold, while Balad is at 3.07%. Labor has 3.60%, Hadash Ta’al 3.94% and Ra’am 4.25%.

6:07pm It’s not just the parties who are currently below the threshold that is helping Netanyahu; his four parties’ bloc currently has 50.3% of the vote combined.

5:36pm With 71.3% counted in Israel, Ra’am receives a big boost and is up to 3.86%, well above the 3.25% threshold. But Hadash Ta’al, another Arab party, is teetering at 3.33%, while Meretz falls to 3.05% and Balad has 2.79%.

5:07pm The Danish election was also held Tuesday. The left-leaning “Red Bloc” of parties won 90 of the 179 seats, a one seat majority. The right-leaning “Blue Bloc” won 73 seats, and a new centrist party won the remaining 16 seats. The left retains office after winning in June 2019. They will be relieved not to have to depend on the Moderates.

4:33pm With 62.4% counted, the Arab party Hadash Ta’al drops back to 3.38%, Meretz to 3.17%, Balad to 2.75% and Ra’am to 2.47%. It’s looking as if Balad and Ra’am are done for, giving Netanyahu a bigger than expected majority.

3:59pm An update in the Haaretz live blog says that currently Netanyahu’s bloc would win 68 of the 120 Knesset seats. That’s with Meretz, Balad and Ra’am missing the threshold, and I think Meretz will make it on later counting.

3:52pm With 44.6% counted, Labor is up to 3.66% and Meretz to 3.24%, so both will probably clear the threshold. However, Balad has 3.11% and United Arab List (Ra’am) 2.87% – they’re both in serious jeopardy.

2:49pm With 34.6% counted, there are four parties that are just above or just below the 3.25% threshold: Labor (3.27%), the Arab party Balad (3.14%), the United Arab List (3.09%) and the left-wing Meretz (2.67%). Labor and Meretz should gain in later counting, but I’m not sure about the Arab parties.

12:38pm In past Israeli elections, the first votes counted have been skewed towards right-wing parties as Jerusalem reports relatively quickly, and the religious parties do well there. Tel Aviv reports later, and the left do better there.

12:35pm Turnout for the Israeli election was 71.3%. Official results are here, but unhelpfully don’t tell us how much has been counted. With a 71.3% turnout and 6.79 million overall electors, there should be 4.84 million votes. So 627,000 have been counted so far, which is 13.0% of turnout.

7:21am Wednesday: Exit polls give Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc of Likud, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionists 61-62 of the 120 Knesset seats, enough for a majority. The anti-Netanyahu parties combined have 54-55 and an Arab party that is not aligned with the current government has the remaining four seats. Early exit polls have been wrong before, and we’ll need to wait for actual results.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Israeli election will be held today, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. A majority requires 61 seats.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday. Exit polls will be released soon after polls close, but the Election Day count is unlikely to be finalized until late Wednesday afternoon AEDT. There will be small additional counting over the next few days.

Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The final allowed polls were published by Friday; they give these right-wing parties a combined 60-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-56 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.

Two Arab parties – Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am – are consistently shown as winning four seats, meaning they are just above the 3.25% threshold. If either were to drop below this threshold, they would win no seats and Netanyahu’s bloc would be advantaged and win a majority. The Arab Joint List split into two parties and one of the offshoots is unlikely to beat the threshold.

The biggest loser of this election is likely to be the right-wing Yamina party, which joined the anti-Netanyahu government under party leader and former PM Naftali Bennett. Yamina has joined with Jewish Home, and will run under the Jewish Home name, but is unlikely to surpass the threshold.

The biggest election winner is likely to be the Religious Zionists, which currently hold seven Knesset seats. Polls have them winning 12-15 seats to be the third biggest party behind Likud and the liberal Yesh Atid.

Other recent election results

After losing Sunday’s Brazilian presidential runoff election by 50.9-49.1, far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has not yet conceded defeat. However, some of his key allies have accepted the result. Leftist winner Lula will be sworn in as president on January 1, 2023.

Green Alexander Van der Bellen was easily re-elected Austrian president on October 9 with 56.7% of the vote, avoiding a runoff. The Austrian president is largely a symbolic figurehead.

At the October 3 election in the Canadian province of Quebec, the conservative CAQ won 41.0% of the vote and 90 of the 125 seats under first past the post. Four other parties split the remaining vote, with each winning between 12.9% and 15.4%.

At the October 9 election in the German state of Lower Saxony, the centre-left SPD won 33.4% of the vote (down 3.5%), the conservative CDU 28.1% (down 5.5%), the Greens 14.5% (up 5.8%), the far-right AfD 11.0% (up 4.8%) and the pro-business FDP 4.7% (down 2.8%). As the FDP missed the 5% threshold, the SPD and Greens will have a combined majority of 81 of the 146 seats.

While this result is encouraging for the left in Germany, the combined vote percentage for the current federal governing SPD, Greens and FDP has dropped into the mid 40s from 52.0% at the September 2021 German federal election.

Right-wing governments have taken office in Italy and Sweden after winning elections in September.

Brazilian presidential runoff election live

Lula will probably defeat Bolsonaro today; live commentary from Monday morning. Netanyahu could win a majority in Israel, while US polls stabilise.

Live Commentary

11:28am With virtually all votes counted, Lula wins by 50.9-49.1, a 1.8% margin. Brazilian polls slightly overstated Lula in the runoff, but were much better than in the first round. That first round gave them an opportunity to adjust their sampling to include more Bolsonaro voters.

10:16am With 99.4% reporting, Lula leads by 50.87-49.13, a 1.7% margin. That’s down from the 5.2% margin he won the first round by. In 2018, Bolsonaro won the runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.

9:17am With 92% reporting, Lula is winning by 50.6-49.4. Not as much movement to Lula in late counting as there was in the first round.

8:47am Lula has just overtaken Bolsonaro in the live count with 68% in, and will win from here. Projection: Lula has defeated Bolsonaro, and will be Brazil’s next president.

8:38am I believe Lula may be outperforming his first round margins in his own strongholds, while Bolsonaro does well in his. Gap now down to just 50.1-49.9 with 60% reporting.

8:29am Bolsonaro’s lead down to just 50.3-49.7 as nearly 50% have reported.

8:21am With 42% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 50.6-49.4. It took until 46% were counted last time for Bolsonaro’s lead to fall to 2.2%.

8:17am In 2018, Brazil’s most populous states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro both gave Bolsonaro 68-32 margins in the runoff. He’s not getting anywhere near that margin this time in either state.

8:12am With 34% in, Bolsonaro’s margin continues to narrow to under two points, 50.9-49.1.

7:58am With 24% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.3-48.7. He was further ahead at the same stage in the first round count, according to my live blog. In the first round, it took until 70% had been counted for Lula to overtake Bolsonaro.

7:50am With 18.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.6-48.4. I believe the current results point to a narrow Lula win when all votes are counted.

7:38am Bolsonaro’s overall lead has narrowed to 52.0-48.0 as 11% have reported.

7:34am With 58% counted in Tocantins, Lula is winning there by 52.5-47.5. In the first round, Lula won Tocantins by 6.4%.

7:28am With 4.4% of overall districts counted, Bolsonaro leads by 53.9-46.1. Early results will very likely be skewed to Bolsonaro.

7:23am 58% now counted in the federal district, and Bolsonaro’s lead reduced to about 59.2-40.8.

7:19am With 24% counted already in the federal district, Bolsonaro is leading there by almost 60-40. In the first round, he won this district by almost 15 points. In the 2018 runoff, he won by 70-30.

7:07am Monday Here is the Guardian’s live results for the runoff. Past elections it would be useful to track results against are the 2022 first round results and the 2018 runoff results by state.

7:48pm In the first round of the Brazilian election, early results were skewed towards Bolsonaro, as his strong areas counted faster than Lula’s. That’s likely to be the case again tomorrow morning.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

At the October 2 first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) led the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by a 48.4-43.2 margin. As nobody won over 50%, the contest goes to a runoff today. Lula was president from 2003 to 2010.

Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT. As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on Election Day. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.

Polls for the runoff have narrowed to include more Bolsonaro voters after they understated his first round support. The final six polls, which mostly include some fieldwork conducted after Friday’s debate, gave Lula a one to seven point lead. However, there were two Bolsonaro leads in polls conducted last week.

Even if Lula wins, the legislature is likely to be difficult for him. In my live blog of the first round election, I wrote that right-wing parties won a majority in both chambers of the legislature. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party performed particularly well.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

Israel: Netanyahu’s bloc ahead and could win a majority

The Israeli election will be held Tuesday, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. A majority requires 61 seats.

Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The final allowed polls were published by Friday; they give these right-wing parties a combined 60-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-56 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.

Two Arab parties – Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am – are consistently shown as winning four seats, meaning they are just above the 3.25% threshold. If either were to drop below this threshold, they would win no seats and Netanyahu’s bloc would be advantaged and win a majority.

US, UK and Danish polls

I wrote last Monday that Republicans have gained in the polls for the US November 8 midterm elections. Since that article, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts for the House and Senate have stabilised. Democrats now have a 52% chance to hold the Senate (55% last Monday), while Republicans have an 81% chance to gain the House (80% previously).

Rishi Sunak became Britain’s new PM last Tuesday. Polls conducted since then have shown the Conservatives improving markedly from the final polls of Liz Truss, but Labour still holds a massive lead. In six of the seven polls taken since Sunak became PM, Labour led by 24 to 32 points, down from the 27 to 39 point lead in Truss’ final days. The Conservative-leaning Opinium poll gave Labour a 16-point lead, down from 27.

The Danish election will be held Tuesday. All 179 seats are elected by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. The Social Democrats have governed since the left-aligned “Red Bloc” of parties won the June 2019 election. Polls have the Red Bloc leading the Blue Bloc by five to ten points.

Britain’s next PM and Brazilian runoff, Israeli and US midterm elections minus six to 16 days

Rishi Sunak set to win as Boris Johnson withdraws. Lula will probably defeat Bolsonaro in Brazil, Netanyahu could win again, and Republicans gain in the US.

6:52am Tuesday: Rishi Sunak is Britain’s next PM, after Penny Mordaunt conceded shortly before the close of nominations at midnight AEDT last night. He was the only candidate to pass the 100 nominations threshold. There will be no members’ ballot.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The next UK Conservative leader and PM will be decided by a fast-tracked process. Candidates will need at least 100 Conservative MP nominations by 2pm UK time today (midnight AEDT). As there are 356 Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, at most three candidates can reach the required nominations.

If only one candidate reaches the 100 nominations, that candidate is elected Conservative leader and PM. With former PM Boris Johnson withdrawing Sunday night UK time, only former Chancellor Rishi Sunak is likely to pass the 100 nominations required, and there will be no Conservative members’ ballot. That ballot was to be conducted by Friday using online methods.

The Guardian’s tracker of public endorsements from MPs gave Sunak 144 endorsements, Johnson 57 and Penny Mordaunt 24; she was the last eliminated candidate in the previous contest. Johnson claimed he had 102 nominees (including non-public endorsements), but did not continue his campaign even though he would have likely won a members’ vote, as he did not want to be leader of a parliamentary party that had rejected him decisively.

Since the September 23 “horror” budget, Liz Truss’ brief tenure has been marked by dire and worsening polls for the Conservatives. In eight national polls taken since last Sunday, Labour led by between 27 and 39 points. These polls were taken after Truss sacked Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on October 14 and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt.

In May 2021, I wrote for The Conversation that non-university educated whites are shifting to the right. However, a danger for right-wing parties is a perception they want to slash government services – examples are Australian polls after the 2014 budget and US polls during Donald Trump’s first year as president, in which he was attempting to gut Obamacare. We now have another example.

Brazilian presidential runoff: October 30

At the October 2 first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) led the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by a 48.4-43.2 margin. As nobody won over 50%, the contest goes to a runoff this Sunday. Lula was president from 2003 to 2010.

Polls for the runoff have narrowed to include more Bolsonaro voters after they understated his first round support. There has been further narrowing in the last week, with Lula ahead by just 52-48 in this poll aggregate; a recent poll gave Bolsonaro a 51-49 lead.

Even if Lula wins, the legislature is likely to be difficult for him. In my live blog of the first round election, I wrote that right-wing parties won a majority in both chambers of the legislature. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party performed particularly well.

In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.

Israel: Netanyahu’s bloc ahead and could win a majority

The Israeli election will be held November 1, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold.

Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The last four polls give these right-wing parties a combined 59-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-57 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.

US: Republicans gain and could win both chambers at midterms

I wrote for The Conversation last Thursday that Republicans have gained in the polls for the US November 8 midterm elections. Since that article, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts for the House and Senate have worsened for Democrats.

Democrats now have a 55% chance to hold the Senate (61% last Thursday), while Republicans have an 80% chance to gain the House (75% previously). Republicans have taken a 0.5-point lead in the national House popular vote after trailing by 0.3% last Thursday; this is Republicans’ first lead since early August.

Britain’s next PM announcement: 9:30pm AEST tonight

Liz Truss set to be Britain’s next PM. Also: US Democrats’ midterm prospects improve, and Bolsonaro likely to be ousted in October’s Brazilian elections.

9:47pm Monday: It’s a lot closer than the polls had it, but still a very easy win for Liz Truss. She wins over 81,000 votes to over 60,000 for Rishi Sunak. In percentage terms, that’s a 57.4-42.6 margin for Truss.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The winner of the Conservative leadership contest, and thus Britain’s next PM, will be announced at 9:30pm AEST tonight (12:30pm UK time). In July, Conservative MPs whittled the candidates down to a final two: Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The Conservative membership voted by mail between these two, with the postal reception deadline passing Friday.

A YouGov poll of 1,089 Conservative members for Sky News UK that was conducted August 12-17, gave Truss a 66-34 lead over Sunak, down from her 69-31 lead in early August. Among the 57% who had already voted, Truss led by 68-31. Boris Johnson would easily win a three-way race with 46%, to 24% for Truss and 23% Sunak.

In national UK polls, Labour has taken a double digit lead over the Conservatives. A key reason is the massive rise in energy prices, with the price regulator confirming on August 26 that energy prices for the typical household would increase 80% from October compared to now. That means gas and electricity prices this coming northern winter will be about 2.6 times what they were in the 2021-22 winter after a large increase in April.

It’s also plausible that some people voted for Johnson at the 2019 election, rather than for the Conservative party. By ousting Johnson, the Conservatives could alienate these voters. But the next UK general election is not due until late 2024, and the economy may be better then.

US by-elections suggest improved prospects for Democrats at midterms

I wrote for The Conversation last Thursday that before the US Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade ruling on June 24, the average US by-election was recording a two-point gain for Republicans relative to partisan lean. In four by-elections since, it’s been an average of a nine-point gain for Democrats. This analysis does not include the Alaska by-election on August 16, which was resolved Wednesday by preferential voting. Democrat Mary Peltola defeated Republican Sarah Palin to gain this seat.

Polling is also consistent with a lift for the Democrats two months before the November 8 midterm elections, while Liz Cheney suffered a crushing loss in the Wyoming Republican primary.

Brazilian elections: October 2 and 30 (if necessary)

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held October 2, with a runoff October 30 if no candidate wins at least 50%. The contenders are far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.

In five polls conducted at least partly since the August 28 first presidential debate, Lula leads Bolsonaro by between four and 13 points. Another left-wing candidate is winning 8-9%, so Lula will probably not win outright in the first round. In the runoff, Lula has a seven to 15 point lead over Bolsonaro.

Italian, Swedish and Israeli elections

There hasn’t been much change in Italian polls ahead of the September 25 election since my detailed write-up three weeks ago. The right-wing coalition is in the high 40s, the left coalition in the high 20s or low 30s, the Five Star Movement has about 12% and a centrist alliance about 7%. With 37% of parliamentary seats to be elected by first past the post, the female leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, is likely to be Italy’s next PM.

The Swedish election is next Sunday, and it uses proportional representation (PR) to elect its 349 MPs. The Social Democrats are well ahead, but only have 29% so would be far short of a majority. They would still need at least one more coalition ally after the Left party and the Greens.

The Israeli election will be held November 1 after the collapse of a coalition formed to keep former PM Benjamin Netanyahu out. The 120 Knesset seats are elected by PR with a 3.25% threshold. Polls currently suggest that Netanyahu’s Likud, with religious and far-right allies, would fall short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, but are ahead of the current governing parties.

UK Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections live

Live commentary from late Friday morning. Also: Israel’s anti-Netanyahu government collapses and a leftist wins in Colombia for the first time.

Live commentary

1:10pm As I said earlier, the political class exaggerates the meaning of by-elections, which are poor predictors of the next general election result. But these bad losses for the Conservatives could put Boris Johnson back in danger.

1:06pm Lib Dems win T&H by about 14% – HUGE swing!

1:04pm Lib Dems GAIN T&H from Conservatives

1:01pm Labour wins Wakefield by about 18%.

12:57pm Labour GAINS Wakefield from the Conservatives.

12:10pm Wakefield results due in the next 30 minutes, T&H in 60 to 90 minutes according to Britain Elects. This was posted ten minutes ago.

11:40am Friday I haven’t missed anything at gym. More than 4.5 hours after polls closed, still no results from either by-election. All I can report is that turnout in Wakefield was 39.1% (down 24.5% from 2019 general election turnout) and 52.0% in T&H (down 19.9%). Turnout in by-elections is always well down from general elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

UK parliamentary by-elections are today in two Conservative-held seats, with polls closing at 7am Friday AEST. Both seats were vacated owing to misbehaviour by the incumbent MPs, with the Wakefield MP resigning after a conviction for child sexual assault, while the Tiverton & Honiton MP was caught watching porn in parliament.

Wakefield was held by Labour from 1932 until the Conservatives won it in 2019, while Tiverton & Honiton has been Conservative-held since its creation in 1997. Labour will be the main challenger in Wakefield and the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton & Honiton. Two polls in Wakefield have Labour winning by 20 and 23 points; I have not seen any polls in Tiverton & Honiton.

If Labour wins Wakefield, I believe it would be their first gain at a by-election since Corby in November 2012. In a sign that by-election results are overread by the political class, the Conservatives regained Corby at the 2015 general election, and have held it since.

At the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won Wakefield by 47.3-39.8 over Labour, with 6.1% for the Brexit party and 3.9% Liberal Democrats. Wakefield voted Leave by 63-37 at the 2016 Brexit referendum. The Conservatives won Tiverton & Honiton in 2019 by 60.2-19.5 over Labour with 14.8% for the Liberal Democrats and 3.8% Greens. It voted Leave by 57.8-42.2.

While Tiverton & Honiton is held by a big margin, the Liberal Democrats had massive swings to them at both the North Shropshire by-election in December 2021 and the Chesham & Amersham by-election in June 2021.

In recent days, there has been much media and political focus on rail strikes. While voters want the trains to run, inflation and the resulting real wage cuts are a major problem, so voters may sympathize with workers demanding better pay.

Other matters: Israel, Colombia and Ukraine

A year ago, Israeli parties from across the political spectrum formed a government to oust Benjamin Netanyahu, who was PM from 2009 to 2021. However, this government has now collapsed, and new elections are expected in late October or November. Polls suggest Netanyahu’s Likud, with support from religious parties, would win close to a majority of the Knesset.

At Sunday’s Colombian presidential runoff election, the left-wing Gustavo Petro defeated the right-wing populist Rodolfo Hernández by a 50.4-47.3 margin. Petro is the first leftist to win the Colombian presidency.

The left has performed well in recent South American elections, with wins in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. The most important South American election is Brazil in October, where far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is badly trailing his left-wing challenger, Lula.

The Ukraine war has faded out of the headlines, but it still going on. There is currently a bloody conflict in eastern Ukraine. This continuing war is one reason for high global inflation, which is undermining Western incumbents.

Note: I go to gym on Friday mornings, so will not be providing commentary until I return.

Netanyahu ousted in Israeli Knesset confidence vote

Also covered: US and UK by-elections, a German state election and federal polls, and the far-left narrowly wins in Peru.

11:24am Saturday A grim Survation poll for Labour in Batley and Spen, with the Tories leading Labour by 47-41.

11:06am Friday The Lib Dems have GAINED the UK Chesham and Amersham by-election from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems won 56.7% (up 30.4%), the Conservatives 35.5% (down 19.9%) and Labour a pathetic 1.6% (down 11.2%).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

At the March Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties won 59 of the 120 Knesset seats, two short of the 61 for a majority. Netanyahu was given the first attempt to form a government, but was unsuccessful.

On June 2, just before the deadline expired, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid announced he had formed a government that excluded Netanyahu. Under the agreement, Naftali Bennett, leader of the far-right Yamina, would be PM for two years, with Lapid taking over for the remainder of the four-year term. The coalition has parties from across the political spectrum, including a small Arab party for the first time in an Israeli government.

On Sunday, the Israeli Knesset held a confidence vote in the new government, and it won this vote by 60-59, with one Arab member abstaining. Bennett became PM, ending Netanyahu’s 12 successive years as Israel’s PM. Yamina won just seven seats at the election, while Yesh Atid won 17.

The key question is how long the present government will last. The parties that formed it are united only by their detestation of Netanyahu. As the government is headed by a far-right PM, it’s unlikely to be good for Palestinian rights.

US Democrats perform strongly in New Mexico by-election             

At a by-election for New Mexico’s first Congressional District on June 1, the Democrat defeated the Republican by a 60.3-35.7% margin. The almost 25-point Democratic victory is two points better for Democrats than Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump in the same district in 2020, and eight points better than the Democratic incumbent in 2020. This was much better for Democrats than the dreadful result in a Texas federal by-election on May 1.

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Biden’s current ratings are 53.2% approve, 40.7% disapprove (net +12.5%). With polls of likely or registered voters, his ratings are 53.6% approve, 41.3% disapprove (net +12.3%).

Biden’s initial ratings had high disapprovals by the standards of past presidents, and he was ahead of only Trump on net approval. But his approval has since been very steady, and he has overtaken Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford at the same point of their presidencies.

Good result for CDU at German state election

At the June 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election, the conservative CDU won 37.1% (up 7.4% since 2016), the far-right AfD 20.6% (down 3.4%), the Left 11.0% (down 5.3%), the centre-left SPD 8.4% (down 2.2%), the pro-business FDP 6.4% (up 1.6%) and the Greens 5.9% (up 0.8%). The CDU won 40 of the 97 seats, the AfD 23, the Left 12, SPD nine, FDP seven and Greens six. 5% is needed for the proportional allocation of seats, so the FDP missed out last time.

In German federal polls ahead of the September 26 election, the CDU/CSU has advanced at the expense of the Greens since my last update in early May, with the FDP also up, while the Left is close to the 5% threshold. Right-wing parties now have about 50% combined, to about 43% for the combined left. Another poor election for the left in a major European country is likely.

Upcoming UK by-elections

On Thursday, a by-election will occur in the Conservative-held Chesham and Amersham. While this seat has been Conservative-held since its creation in 1974, it voted 55% Remain at the Brexit referendum. To compensate for the loss of its Leave-voting seats, Labour needs to gain seats like C&A. Although Labour finished second in 2017, the 2019 results were 55.4% Conservative (down 5.3%), 26.3% Lib Dem (up 13.3%), 12.9% Labour (down 7.7%) and 5.5% Greens (up 2.5%).

There will be a July 1 by-election in Labour-held Batley and Spen, which voted 60% Leave at the Brexit referendum. The 2019 results were 42.7% Labour (down 12.7%), 36.0% Conservative (down 2.8%), 12.2% for an independent, 4.7% Lib Dem (up 2.4%) and 3.2% Brexit party.

Far-left defeats far-right in Peru

In the June 6 Peru presidential runoff, the far-left’s Pedro Castillo defeated the far-right’s Keiko Fujimori by just a 50.13-49.87 margin. Fujimori is the daughter of the former dictator, and has narrowly lost three runoffs. In the first round, Castillo won 18.9% and Fujimori 13.4% with the rest being too split to qualify for the runoff.

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