11:24am Saturday A grim Survation poll for Labour in Batley and Spen, with the Tories leading Labour by 47-41.
11:06am Friday The Lib Dems have GAINED the UK Chesham and Amersham by-election from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems won 56.7% (up 30.4%), the Conservatives 35.5% (down 19.9%) and Labour a pathetic 1.6% (down 11.2%).
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
At the March Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties won 59 of the 120 Knesset seats, two short of the 61 for a majority. Netanyahu was given the first attempt to form a government, but was unsuccessful.
On June 2, just before the deadline expired, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid announced he had formed a government that excluded Netanyahu. Under the agreement, Naftali Bennett, leader of the far-right Yamina, would be PM for two years, with Lapid taking over for the remainder of the four-year term. The coalition has parties from across the political spectrum, including a small Arab party for the first time in an Israeli government.
On Sunday, the Israeli Knesset held a confidence vote in the new government, and it won this vote by 60-59, with one Arab member abstaining. Bennett became PM, ending Netanyahu’s 12 successive years as Israel’s PM. Yamina won just seven seats at the election, while Yesh Atid won 17.
The key question is how long the present government will last. The parties that formed it are united only by their detestation of Netanyahu. As the government is headed by a far-right PM, it’s unlikely to be good for Palestinian rights.
US Democrats perform strongly in New Mexico by-election
At a by-election for New Mexico’s first Congressional District on June 1, the Democrat defeated the Republican by a 60.3-35.7% margin. The almost 25-point Democratic victory is two points better for Democrats than Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump in the same district in 2020, and eight points better than the Democratic incumbent in 2020. This was much better for Democrats than the dreadful result in a Texas federal by-election on May 1.
In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Biden’s current ratings are 53.2% approve, 40.7% disapprove (net +12.5%). With polls of likely or registered voters, his ratings are 53.6% approve, 41.3% disapprove (net +12.3%).
Biden’s initial ratings had high disapprovals by the standards of past presidents, and he was ahead of only Trump on net approval. But his approval has since been very steady, and he has overtaken Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford at the same point of their presidencies.
Good result for CDU at German state election
At the June 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election, the conservative CDU won 37.1% (up 7.4% since 2016), the far-right AfD 20.6% (down 3.4%), the Left 11.0% (down 5.3%), the centre-left SPD 8.4% (down 2.2%), the pro-business FDP 6.4% (up 1.6%) and the Greens 5.9% (up 0.8%). The CDU won 40 of the 97 seats, the AfD 23, the Left 12, SPD nine, FDP seven and Greens six. 5% is needed for the proportional allocation of seats, so the FDP missed out last time.
In German federal polls ahead of the September 26 election, the CDU/CSU has advanced at the expense of the Greens since my last update in early May, with the FDP also up, while the Left is close to the 5% threshold. Right-wing parties now have about 50% combined, to about 43% for the combined left. Another poor election for the left in a major European country is likely.
Upcoming UK by-elections
On Thursday, a by-election will occur in the Conservative-held Chesham and Amersham. While this seat has been Conservative-held since its creation in 1974, it voted 55% Remain at the Brexit referendum. To compensate for the loss of its Leave-voting seats, Labour needs to gain seats like C&A. Although Labour finished second in 2017, the 2019 results were 55.4% Conservative (down 5.3%), 26.3% Lib Dem (up 13.3%), 12.9% Labour (down 7.7%) and 5.5% Greens (up 2.5%).
There will be a July 1 by-election in Labour-held Batley and Spen, which voted 60% Leave at the Brexit referendum. The 2019 results were 42.7% Labour (down 12.7%), 36.0% Conservative (down 2.8%), 12.2% for an independent, 4.7% Lib Dem (up 2.4%) and 3.2% Brexit party.
Far-left defeats far-right in Peru
In the June 6 Peru presidential runoff, the far-left’s Pedro Castillo defeated the far-right’s Keiko Fujimori by just a 50.13-49.87 margin. Fujimori is the daughter of the former dictator, and has narrowly lost three runoffs. In the first round, Castillo won 18.9% and Fujimori 13.4% with the rest being too split to qualify for the runoff.
So good that the war criminal Netanyahu is getting the boot. About time! The warhawks in the US and Israel won’t be happy at all. It’s great that the progressive wing of the Dems has yet again pulled Biden into line and told him off over his stance on Israel. The chours of condemnation couldn’t be ignored.
The German Greens are still going very well. Slight dip in the polls but they should be expected to go up and down. Few months to go yet and way too early to say that a poor result for the left is likely. They’re now being targeted by a tonne of fake news and propaganda though and the far right is a worry in the east of the country. They’re going so well to be polling at where they are. Lots of water to go under the bridge yet.
edit
“The parties that formed it are united only by their detestation of Netanyahu.”
That’s a pretty strong motivator. Let’s hope it is sufficient.
Labour is never going to win Chesham and Amersham. They simply don’t have the votes. It’s more likely that the Lib Dem’s will pick up Labour votes than the other way around.
The more crucial contest for Labour is in Batley & Spen where it (a) must win and (b) maintain its vote share for it to be counted as a good result.
Batley & Spen is far more like the “red wall” seats Labour lost in 2019 than Chesham.
It’s also complicated by the reason for the by-election. Lots of voters don’t like it when MPs resign to take up other jobs (which is the case in Batley and Spen) whereas Chesham is caused by the death of a popular MP
Saxony-Anhalt is interesting – a CDU/SPD/Green govt (like a Lib/ALP/Grn coalition for us). I guess that’s what happens when 40% of the state votes for neo-nazis or former communists. That alliance increased its majority; alternatively, the less-crazy CDU/SPD grand coalition has a majority of one. A relatively normal CDU/FDP doesn’t quite make it.
The polls there were pretty wrong, too. CDU did about 10% better than predicted, and every other party did worse, particularly AfD.
William Bowe wrote
“At a by-election for New Mexico’s first Congressional District on June 1, the Democrat defeated the Republican by a 60.3-35.7% margin. The almost 25-point Democratic victory is two points better for Democrats than Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump in the same district in 2020, and eight points better than the Democratic incumbent in 2020. This was much better for Democrats than the dreadful result in a Texas federal by-election on May 1.
”
Yes, it is good result for democrats but New Mexico is a blue state anyway for a long time but Texas was supposedly purple state.
Correct me if I am wrong but this by-election is a result of first native American in Biden cabinet and the replacing her is not.
“Player Onesays:
Monday, June 14, 2021 at 5:37 pm
“The parties that formed it are united only by their detestation of Netanyahu.”
That’s a pretty strong motivator. Let’s hope it is sufficient.
”
The PM that replaced Netanyahu is from a far-right party and to the right of him. IMO, Bennett joined this coalition to become PM.
“On Thursday, a by-election will occur in the Conservative-held Chesham and Amersham. While this seat has been Conservative-held since its creation in 1974, it voted 55% Remain at the Brexit referendum. To compensate for the loss of its Leave-voting seats, Labour needs to gain seats like C&A. Although Labour finished second in 2017, the 2019 results were 55.4% Conservative (down 5.3%), 26.3% Lib Dem (up 13.3%), 12.9% Labour (down 7.7%) and 5.5% Greens (up 2.5%).
”
So this seat is like Wentworth in NSW, which are strongly Tory but not trumpist.
Especially after G7 shindig and positive coverage of BOJO and UK they will vote Tories.
Not answering questions on notice is being flogged to death by the Morrison Government.
Scotty McHideFace.
Oh has the official result been finalised and declared in Peru!
It looks very close. Hopefully Castillo will be more effective. The country is in trouble.
Netanyahu has long been my least favourite political leader (with the exception of dictators such as Kim Jong-un and his ilk).
Netanyahu was at the forefront in fomenting the situation which led to the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin – surely one of the most “successful” assassinations in history, as far as achieving its aim of halting the peace process – and which paved the way for Netanyahu’s long reign as prime minister.
Ven, this article above is mine, not William Bowe’s.
This is the latest bad poll for the left in Germany. A 52-42 combined split for the right over the left.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1404496016632602633
Sorry, how do I post tweets in comments? I’ve seen them done without the copying and pasting that used to be necessary. I can post them in the article by just copying and pasting the url, but that doesn’t seem to work in comments.
“Adrian Beaumontsays:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 12:00 pm
Ven, this article above is mine, not William Bowe’s.
This is the latest bad poll for the left in Germany. A 52-42 combined split for the right over the left.
”
Sorry for the mistake of misappropriating the article to William Bowe.
The salient question seems to be: will Yamina actually back Lapid taking over as PM in two years’ time, or will they welch on the deal once their guy has had his turn in the chair?
I thought the only thing preventing the corruption charges against Netanyahu proceeding was the fact that he was PM. Has he been arrested yet?
A traffic light coalition is looking a possibility in Germany!
The Peru election result appears to be final now. I’ve updated the post about it in the article to reflect the slightly closer final margin.
While media outlets have described Castillo as “far-left”, I’m not sure why.
He trends conservative on most social issues, including female empowerment & LGBTQ rights.
He is staunchly anti-refugee, smearing them as “coming to Peru to commit crimes”, an accusation which resonates with Trump.
He wants to regulate, not nationalise, monopolies, and prefers to ‘renegotiate’ rather than remove the tax breaks that many big businesses enjoy in Peru.
He wants to reinstate the death penalty, for Heaven’s sake.
There are a few genuinely far-left ideas within his proposals, but they’re vastly outweighed – in both number and scale – by all the other policies he espouses. Far left? I’m not seein’ it.
I read below thoughts in some other article.
You should really listen to this Bennett guy. If anyone thought Bibi was right wing, they should hear Bennett. He’s openly on the side of settling the West Bank, which the Israelis call “Judea and Samaria.”
But, there’s a catch. Bennett’s party is the 5th largest party in the house, with just 6% of the vote under the belt. The 5th largest party got the throne with all of 6% of the vote.
And who are Bennett’s partners? It’s all the left wing parties, even the Arab parties!
You want me to tell you something that will make you burst out laughing? Apparently, they will rotate the post of Prime Minister. Bennett gets it for now, but in two years, he will have to hand it to the guy who heads the largest party in the coalition. LOL! As if this coalition will last 2 full years…
So let us try to see what Bennett’s incentives would be here. I don’t know much about Israel. Bennett knows his position is insecure. He needs to do something to raise the profile of his party, which is currently a poor fifth.
What is Bennett going to do? The natural way for his party to grow would be to eat into the votes of Netanyahu’s Likud Party. For that, he has to show himself as even stronger on national security than Bibi was. So as PM, he has to take the country even farther to the right.
But, one might wonder, wouldn’t he have to appease his coalition partners so that they keep him in power?
As it is, Bennett has been offered the position for just 2 years. So what if his government “falls”? There is no alternative government: there will be fresh elections in which he can only gain seats. He remains in office through as many election cycles as needed. On the other hand, if he were to appease his coalition partners, he loses power for sure in 2 years. Because of the peculiar nature of the Israeli system, Bennett is more likely to hold on to power for longer period if his government “falls” than if it does not!
So Bennett figured out a way quickly to make his left wing partners get angry and withdraw support . That is why he bombed Palestinians for burning balloons.
The mistake here has been made by the left wing parties. In their desperation to see Netanyahu out, they have gone with someone who is even more to the right. That would not be a problem, generally speaking, because politicians can adjust their ideology to whatever is most convenient. But in this case, Bennett’s interests are exactly the opposite to those of his partners.
Ven, I think Castillo is being described as far-left based on his economic positions.
That’s an interesting theory about Bennett, but if the current govt can’t hold for long and falls, it’s likely that Bibi’s coalition wins outright, and then Bibi quickly retakes the PM-ship. Yamina’s vote would probably tank in that situation, as they’d still be regarded as traitors to the right.
Results for the Chesham and Amersham UK by-election will be in tomorrow morning.
The Liberal Democrats beat the Tories by 8k votes in the Chesham & Amersham by-election.
Which is a stunning result.
Tories down 20% and Lib Dem’s up by 30% which is a swing of 25% which is one of the largest swings in a Uk by-election
The Lib Dems gained Chesham and Amersham from the Tories today, as mentioned at the top.
”
Soharsays:
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 10:24 am
Greens seem to be replacing Starmer’s Labour in parts of the UK (not that it matters in this electorate):
Upper Culm (Mid Devon) result:
CON: 44.5% (+8.1)
LDEM: 42.6% (-7.2)
GRN: 9.1% (+9.1)
LAB: 3.8% (-10.0)
”
In UK Labour is in big trouble. They said with Starmer’s leadership they can consolidatethe centre, the left are traditional Labour supporters and they can ( I am not ‘may’) attract soft right voters like Bakit did. But it appears from this result they are setting hammered from all sides. Soft right is kathalu starting with Stories and moved in small numbers to Libdems, Left either voted in large numbers for LibDems or Greens and Labour is left to ging out dry. What happened to Starmer’s appeal.
This is all happening with BOJO as leader of Tories and PM of UK.
It says 4 things
1. Starmer is not who he made out to be
2. It reflects poorly on English people
3. BOJO can do whatever he wants without consequences like Morrison.
4. Nobody on left in UK cares what Guardian newspaper writes
“Adrian Beaumontsays:
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 11:10 am
The Lib Dems gained Chesham and Amersham from the Tories today, as mentioned at the top.
”
Mr. Beaumont
Then what is “Upper Culm (Mid Devon) result:”?
Ven, the C & A by-election was a UK Parliamentary by-election, the Mid Devon one would be for a council by-election in that particular ward of Mid Devon council.
“Adrian Beaumontsays:
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 3:47 pm
Ven, the C & A by-election was a UK Parliamentary by-election, the Mid Devon one would be for a council by-election in that particular ward of Mid Devon council.
”
OK
Thank you. So LibDems lost a council by-election seat to Tories. Ko
Ven
No the Lib Dem’s didn’t lose Upper Culm.
The Tories retained it with a majority of 15.
May I point you in the direction of the Britain Elects website which produces excellent guides on all UK elections – even tuppenny ha’penny local council ones like Upper Culm where 812 people cast valid votes yesterday – 24% of the electorate.
It’s an area where in most elections Labour, the Lib Dem’s and Greens don’t put up candidates in every election.
Re: Peru
Castillo is a genuine left candidate with the support of other Latin American left leaders including Morales, Correa, Arce and Fernandez and Da Silva. His party Peru Libre is founded and chaired by a Cuban trained doctor, Vladimir Cerron. In most parts of the world, left is defined by economic positions and opposition to imperialism, not a vanity contest as to who can be more woke. Castillo’s social positions merely reflect those of his base, which is the highland regions and urban poor.
Prior to the first round there was indeed a USAID type ‘left’ candidate, Veronika Mendoza, who gained lots of media and espoused the correct (for North American progressives) ideas, but she bombed out with the unfancied Castillo gaining 3 times as many votes.
After their own candidates also failed in the first round, its been amusing to watch the middle and upper classes forced to throw support behind Fujimori, who most of them have spent 20 years demonising, such is their fear that Peru is about to become a new Venezuela under Castillo.
That fear is not unreasonable, but not for the reasons they claim. A campaign of polarisation and fear is already well underway, no doubt orchestrated by the CIA. Castillo does not control the congress and it is likely that they will use the first opportunity to try and impeach him, which would risk serious social disturbances.
The Peru election result is one of the biggest geostrategic shifts in the last year and the lack of coverage, shows how insular and shallow our media has become. Peru, along with Chile and Colombia have been long term lynch pins of US influence in South America and its possible they could lose all 3 in the space of 12 months. Castillo will seek to align Peru with the Alba grouping and Washington will do everything in its power to thwart him. Watch this space.
Another quick post at the top on a nasty poll for UK Labour in the next by-election.
”
Peter Kruminssays:
Saturday, June 19, 2021 at 2:37 am
In most parts of the world, left is defined by economic positions and opposition to imperialism, not a vanity contest as to who can be more woke. Castillo’s social positions merely reflect those of his base, which is the highlan
”
I would even go further to add that Left and Right is a Western concept and ‘woke’people especially journalists try to impose those on rest of the world. The positions of people in those parts of the world are much more nuanced and mixed.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/14/netanyahu-ousted-in-israeli-knesset-confidence-vote/#comment-3629492
On what grounds do you classify Peru as non-Western?
It is in the Western Hemisphere.
Its main official language is Spanish, a Western European language.
Its main religion is Catholicism (the Latin rite thereof, a Western religion), with various Protestant denominations in second place.
The majority of the population have at least some European ancestry.