Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,784 comments on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”

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  1. Nicko
    One standard for the Libs, a completely different one for Labor. This is why Labor has to beat more than one opponent in every election.

  2. I think young Hawke is showing some promise as Immigration Minister. I doubt whether the Biloela family would’ve been granted community detention in Perth had Dutton still been in the job. It’s also apparent by his reference to “unlawful non-citizens” that he’s
    familiarising himself with migration law. Early days, but not a bad start.

  3. @AmyRemeikis tweets

    Michael McCormack: “I’d much rather live in Australia than anywhere else in the nation.”

    Honestly. I am not making this up

  4. rnm1953

    Julian Hill MP

    He says “it’s not a race” yet he raced to get his own vaccine.

    For everyone else it’s still a long far queue.

    Nice work by Hill to get that one in 🙂

  5. @farrm51 tweets
    Lots of carefully staged partial government blinks going on while deportation option remains wide open. If the gov is red faced over Biloela family it’s an expensive embarrassment of its own creation, with millions spent keeping them on Christmas Is a costly gesture of cruelty

  6. Nicko

    The contrast between how the media is treating Scomo is completely different, he won’t even answer a single question on it, and they give him a free pass on it.

    Not saying it’s fair, but I think it’s partly the other way around. Gillard’s lengthy q&a gave the peanut gallery more things to chew on and fuel for new questions.

  7. C@tmomma @ #1732 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    I’m going to be very interested in the LNP vote at the Biloela booth at the next election.

    There has been an election since the removal of the family by Border Force officials in 2018. Have a look at the towns booths result. If anything… an improvement for far right parties. ALP down 6.

    Sure, some people in that town care. But they either already vote for the ALP or dont care enough to change their vote.

  8. A comment on UK politics

    Throughout the past few years many of us have watched as a group of charlatans have gaslighted the country into the most appalling acts of self destruction. Not just Brexit either though that was the vehicle for all the rest. We have changed from a welcome tolerant society into one that is simply inward looking. And also divided amongst ourselves. We are now a country of communities set against each other.

    Phillip Moorhouse from a Different Bias Youtube channel.

    A point worth pondering.

  9. Simon Katich @ #1752 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 3:53 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1732 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    I’m going to be very interested in the LNP vote at the Biloela booth at the next election.

    There has been an election since the removal of the family by Border Force officials in 2018. Have a look at the towns booths result. If anything… an improvement for far right parties. ALP down 6.

    Sure, some people in that town care. But they either already vote for the ALP or dont care enough to change their vote.

    You’re discounting the Shorten effect and candidate Zac Beers the electorate didn’t believe in.

    Biloela community embraced the family and now have a Labor local candidate they respect.

  10. SK

    The town felt left alone and that they had no alternative.

    If the Greens had run an actually viable candidate as an obvious party with a different approach to AS it would have been interesting.

    The problem is that parties assess the risk of burning a good candidate as not worth the risk to find out. So voters don’t get a choice.

    Of course now there is a New Liberal party that is economically conservative but socially progressive (to me an oxymoron as I think it’s all about the economics) those voters might feel they have a choice that represents their views.

    It’s why I cheer on alternative parties. I know people are not in lock step with every policy a party has. It gets so bad the pressure builds up and we end up with single issue parties.

    Like the Nuclear Disarmament party of ancient times

  11. guytaur @ #1761 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 3:57 pm

    A comment on UK politics

    Throughout the past few years many of us have watched as a group of charlatans have gaslighted the country into the most appalling acts of self destruction. Not just Brexit either though that was the vehicle for all the rest. We have changed from a welcome tolerant society into one that is simply inward looking. And also divided amongst ourselves. We are now a country of communities set against each other.

    Interesting. My partner and I were having a discussion about Australia today, and came to very much the same conclusion.

    This is no longer the Australia we believed in or grew up in 🙁

  12. DisplayName

    We all know if Gillard didn’t answer questions they all would have said she is hiding something, the truth is News corps, Fairfax wanted Labor gone and so were always gonna hold a gun to her head no matter what.
    That’s the difference this government is largely supported by these media heads, so all the commentary is coloured with a pro Morrison stance..

  13. Nicko

    Yes. Thus the ABC and SBS as non profit organisations should be biased against commercial interests.

    That balances the rest of the media. Every attack by Murdoch on the ABC is a sign they are going in the correct direction.

    The whole point of the ABC is to give voice to those not specifically pursuing news current affairs and content programmes from a profit making view.

  14. It’s a worldwide consideration

    @JoeBiden tweets

    Democracy thrives when the infrastructure of democracy is strong; when people have the right to vote freely, fairly, and conveniently; when a free and independent press pursues the truth; when the law applies equally to everyone, regardless of who they are or what they look like.

  15. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 4:24 pm

    “The whole point of the ABC is to give voice to those not specifically pursuing news current affairs and content programmes from a profit making view.”

    No, it’s not. It has to operate in accordance with the Act that it operates under and that doesn’t mention anything like that.

  16. Buce

    Yes it does. In fact the IPA complains about the ABC doing the same territory as the commercial stations. They just do it to destroy the ABC.

    They want those voices denied a platform.

  17. I view all political comment in this country through the prism of what the MSM did to Gillard.
    Every day you can play “if this were Labor…” but it depresses you.

  18. “ Cat

    Reforming Question Time. Banning Dorothy Dixers.
    Make the parliament more accountable to the voters is the way to go.”

    Agreed.

    I reckon the best way to achieve this is to remove the artifice behind dixers: in between each question without notice from a non Government MP, a Minister is permitted to make a Ministerial statement of no more than 3 minutes.

    Also: Each question without notice has to be less than a minute; each answer has to be no more than three; one supplementary question and answer should also be permitted.

  19. BSA Bob @ #1159 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 4:42 pm

    I view all political comment in this country through the prism of what the MSM did to Gillard.
    Every day you can play “if this were Labor…” but it depresses you.

    And that’s exactly what people like mundo don’t understand. They can be all, ‘if only someone in Labor had said this…’ till they are red in the face, but unless and until the Australian media decide to broadcast it to the populace then it doesn’t matter if they do or they don’t say it.

    Though I will say that I have been conducting a running experiement to see what is getting through by following the 4PM Afternoon News on Channel 9 (that it is after Tipping Point has nothing to do with it! 😆 ), and it certainly seems to me like their editors are looking for a well-encapsulated soundbite to play if the Labor Opposition has something to say. Today they ran Albanese’s quick summation of the Biloela family situation. Short, sharp and to the point and it got played.

    I guess Labor just have to keep at it.

  20. Rex Douglas @ #1151 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 4:01 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1752 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 3:53 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1732 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    I’m going to be very interested in the LNP vote at the Biloela booth at the next election.

    There has been an election since the removal of the family by Border Force officials in 2018. Have a look at the towns booths result. If anything… an improvement for far right parties. ALP down 6.

    Sure, some people in that town care. But they either already vote for the ALP or dont care enough to change their vote.

    You’re discounting the Shorten effect and candidate Zac Beers the electorate didn’t believe in.

    Biloela community embraced the family and now have a Labor local candidate they respect.

    And isn’t Ken Dowd, their local LNP MP, retiring?

  21. What’s all the fuss about BRS hiring a private investigator to follow his partner to the clinic ?

    Standard practice right guys ..??

    Completely normal ….!

  22. BSA
    I always think about the Gillard misogyny speech. The CPG were either outright disdainful, talking it down or ignoring it. When they found out the world noticed and liked her speech they just arrogantly dismissed that too, or reluctantly admitted they had just misread the room (instead of having their heads up their arses).

    All these years later some of the same journos are up in arms about the misogyny and sexual discrimination in politics. At least for a few months they were.

    Discredited hypocrites. Wind socks looking for a breezy hand to feed them, then giving it a good lick.

  23. Not to mention that they forever tainted Gillard for the downfall of Rudd. Libspills however are a right of passage to be respected.

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