Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”

Comments Page 39 of 39
1 38 39
  1. michael says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:40 pm

    QLD Budget – gross debt
    2020-21 : $95.8 bill
    2021-22 : $106.3 bill
    2024-25 : $127.3 bill
    Their going well.

    Meaningless without data on what has been built.

  2. [‘Giving evidence in the Federal Court in Sydney on Tuesday, Mr Roberts-Smith replied “absolutely not” when asked by his barrister, Bruce McClintock, SC, if he had hit the woman.

    “That particular allegation, I feel, coupled with being called a war criminal, has ruined my life,” he said. “For a long time I found it very difficult to leave the house after that.”

    He said domestic violence was “morally reprehensible” and his parents had instilled in him a “very good set of values”. He had no tolerance for anybody who would raise a hand to a woman, he said.’]

    Roberts-Smith has every right to deny these scurrilous allegations levelled against him, including that the 21 serving and former SASR diggers have a set against him, insanely jealous that they weren’t recommended for the VC, motivated by the tall poppy syndrome.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/roberts-smith-hired-investigator-to-check-woman-was-having-an-abortion-20210615-p5818t.html

  3. Mavis
    If I read the defence deposition correctly there are multiple defence witnesses for some of the individual events and there will possibly be body cam footage for some of them.
    I have not seen reporting that there will be supporting witnesses for BRS.

  4. “ Goodness me the Hanrahans, Western self-loathers, defeatists and appeasers are out in full force tonight”

    Quite right, old chap. How good was General Hope-Grant! Gave the yellow devils a good taste of cold hard steel. What! Pip. Pip.

  5. A_E

    haha. I left out Xi’s fifth columnists. The ones who white ant democracy. And the ones who advocate defending Australia by sending Xi their peace studies kit.

  6. Karen Stewart, 4Corners guest and estranged sister of sQomo’s buddy Tim, wrote this piece on Facebook last year. She makes some pertinent observations.. an extract..

    ‘There are some issues, however, where I know Morrison bears false witness. One of my siblings and his family have been close friends with the PM and his wife for decades; so have some members of my extended family.

    In December 2019, many parts of Australia were in the grips of catastrophic bushfires. It then became apparent Morrison was decidedly absent. Journalists posed questions to the PM’s office in a bid to find out where he was. Samantha Maiden, of The New Daily, was one of the journalists[9] who asked whether the holiday had been planned to meet up with the “QAnon family”. The QAnon family is my sibling’s family. The PM’s office answered with an emphatic no[10].

    Conversely, at our family’s Easter get-together in April 2019, the discussion of the end-of-year holiday to Hawaii was had. There were several family members scheduled to holiday in Hawaii during December/January and joining that group was Scott and Jen Morrison. My sibling wondered if the Morrisons would have to pull out if he won the upcoming Federal Election.

    Morrison represented to the public his Hawaiian holiday had been a surprise for his children. He implied it had been a last-minute decision.

    If I knew the PM was planning a holiday in Hawaii, then I’m confident the PM knew it was planned. If the dates of the holiday altered slightly, last minute, perhaps Morrison counts that as being a totally new holiday and he justifies his representation on that basis.’

    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=161520505546309&id=100181508346876

  7. dwh
    Thanks.
    One of the things that interests me is the relationship between the density of security cameras and crime rates.
    The US and China have close to the highest per capita density of security cameras.

  8. boerwar:

    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:52 pm

    [‘Mavis
    If I read the defence deposition correctly there are multiple defence witnesses for some of the individual events and there will possibly be body cam footage for some of them.’]

    Oral evidence supported by video footage is normally very compelling.

    [‘I have not seen reporting that there will be supporting witnesses for BRS.’]

    If none of his comrades-in-arms supports him, he’s in a deal of bother, especially given the number of defence witnesses lined up to give evidence. And if his parents take the stand, their evidence wouldn’t be given much weight as few parents would say a bad thing about their own child and moreover that weren’t in the theatre of conflict when the alleged war crimes took place.

    Again, I was almost brought to tears after he told the court that his life has been ruined, that he was reticent to leave his house. Yet he’s been seen out and about of late with at least three different women. Accordingly, the defendants may see fit to question his credibility.

  9. Sprocket
    From your link.
    https://www.karenthinksaloud.com.au/about

    Australia’s Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, spent time in a Brethren church before moving to a Baptist church and is now attending a Pentecostal church. Morrison is a disgrace to Christianity but he is the epitome of Pentecostalism: he has officially endorsed a group of Pentecostal Christians in their bid to convert towns for God[3]. He holds prayer meetings on the taxpayer dime excluding ministers not of his faith. Morrison maintains friendships with two people in the radical, evangelical group, QAnon. There are significant questions that the Prime Minister must answer:

    What are his religious beliefs, particularly the condemnation of some to hell?
    How has he managed his beliefs to ensure government policies and legislation are independent of his religion?
    What do the parliamentarians pray about in their prayer meetings?
    Why has Morrison avoided firm political condemnation of the events in the USA on January 6?
    Why hasn’t Morrison condemned QAnon as domestic terrorists?
    Why did Morrison agree to change a parliamentary speech at the behest of QAnon[4]?
    Does Morrison believe the world is dominated by Satanists and/or that humanity is in the “end times?”
    Why is Morrison refusing to correct George Christensen or Craig Kelly for their recent statements; statements aligned with the beliefs of QAnon?

    https://www.karenthinksaloud.com.au/blog/capitol

  10. Guytaur

    I’m confused

    10 days ago the second traveller was found to have virus.
    Why are they now concerned that it may have been picked up in HQ rather than on the flight where they all came from

    What am I missing?

  11. davidwh says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 10:04 pm
    Just as a matter of interest on the full list of safest countries Australia 13th, China 110th and US 124th.

    …….>…………………………….

    Complete nonsense David.

    Zerlo’s list is correct . . .because there is, as we all know, safety in numbers.

  12. @froomkin tweets

    !! Trump had his assistant email the acting AG he’d just installed urging DOJ to file a Supreme Court brief to “declare that the Electoral College votes cast” in 6 states “cannot be counted,” and order a re-vote.

    And House Oversight has the emails!

  13. @MirrorPolitics tweets

    Australia trade deal to save each UK household ‘up to’ £1.22 a year on imported goods
    mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…

  14. ‘Up to” = greatest possible = upper limit = whatever is said to be “up to” is almost certainly less, likely a lot less.

    Hopefully the British won’t spend all their £1.22 in one place.

  15. Zerlo @ #1878 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 7:14 pm

    fun fact, China is the safest country in the world:

    Here are the 10 safest countries in the world:
    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/safest-countries-in-the-world
    China ()
    India ()
    United States ()
    Indonesia ()
    Pakistan ()
    Brazil ()
    Nigeria ()
    Bangladesh ()
    Russia ()
    Mexico ()

    This really goes to the heart of your critical thinking ability that you could post such a list and not question how any of them could be within cooee of the top 10.

  16. How unsurprisement

    Dan Froomkin/PressWatchers.org
    @froomkin
    ·
    8m
    Could everyone stop for just a minute to contemplate the fact that the former president of the United States told his Department of Justice to get the Supreme Court to throw out the election results in six states he lost and hold a re-vote?
    Quote Tweet
    Dan Froomkin/PressWatchers.org
    @froomkin
    · 48m
    !! Trump had his assistant email the acting AG he’d just installed urging DOJ to file a Supreme Court brief to “declare that the Electoral College votes cast” in 6 states “cannot be counted,” and order a re-vote.

    And House Oversight has the emails!

    https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-rel

  17. Sprocket_
    That doesn’t change Morrison’s story because he could have surprised the kids with the news of the trip but it would be typical of Morrison to only tell half a story or to twist the story.

  18. Haven’t seen any msm mention the security risk in having a Qanon adherent roaming Kirribilli House (in light of the Capitol Hill insurrection on Jan 6 .)
    Ronni Salt and Scott MacFarlane are both good sources of info on this . Worth following on twitter…the former Oz, the latter US.

  19. “10 days ago the second traveller was found to have virus.
    Why are they now concerned that it may have been picked up in HQ rather than on the flight where they all came from”

    Victoria

    Hadn’t this guy been through HQ and tested negative just before he left?

Comments Page 39 of 39
1 38 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *