It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.
• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.
• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.
• The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.
• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.
Zerlo says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:36 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:30 pm
You have no evidence of that, however.
The screws have just started to be applied, should be obvious to anyone, an economy does not run on warships. China needs the world. XI thought they didn’t.
It is not going to be good for anyone.
guytaur
NATO in the Indo-Pacific will do SFA. It will really only be the US, as usual, with token crap from poodle Australia and occasional visits of UK ships playing Rule Britannia as they dream of the good ol’ days of Empire.
I still don’t see oppressed Xinjiang people in Xinjiang….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vL-CX4K5o0
On Morrison’s return this week, he’ll wave a piece of paper around telling the assembled journos what a wonderful deal he got during a piss-up at No. 10. He’ll be asked about his two special mates – Houston, B & Stewart – but will say something like there’s nothing to see here. Whether that works is a matter for journos some of whom are highly compromised by virtue of what masthead they work for and the imperative of keeping onside with Morrison, his ministers in the hope that they’ll get a Laurie Oakes-like big breaking story. But the only story in town is Morrison’s mates.
Watching SBS news in Perth.
Boris Johnston is one of the few people on the planet who makes Morrison look good in a suit.
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:41 pm
Xi needs the world…. Nah don’t think so.
The west needs China, that’s why G7 are attacking China on the world stage over “economically disabled”.
China has rare earths, mines, manufacturing, and in Xinjiang (where the supposed camps are – is the biggest oil reserves).
Poroti
It’s unity. Failure to divide. Biden winning has had consequences.
You forgot France is an Indo Pacific power. With nukes.
Mavis
Any question about his dodgy maates will be met with his std. response. He”ll find the question “deeply offensive” .
Zerlo is this the place your talking about?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTR74I8b_kE
Zerlo, or is this the place
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7AYyUqrMu
guytaur
You need to wait and see what happens. Expressions of grand sentiments and plans are not reality.
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:48 pm
WION headquarters is in India, so they have political reasons to attack China.
Not independent enough.
“Ethnic Ulgher testifies on Capital Hill” = Same place where Donald Trump Personal Army descended on.
Zerlo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMkHcZ5IwjU
Poroti
What’s going to happen is a return to before Trump with the West slightly weaker and China slightly stronger.
No dramatic shift. So no war.
Edit:
Zerlo is just upset as the unity hurts
Zerlo
I know the story, they are only factories….
https://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2021/04/chinas-disappeared-uyghurs-what-satellite-images-reveal.html
Zerlo
And yes Zerlo, I have been to China recently and seen the Cameras everywhere
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ5LnY21Hgc
In other words, give the crap a rest.
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:56 pm
I don’t trust Satellite images since they can be tampered with, further more, we found out that IRAQ never had WOMD.
And finally frednk, I been to Xinjiang, and visited various number of minority groups, and never saw anything what is on the media.
“ The Chinese Communist Party runs a one party state, just as the Communist Party of the USSR did and the National Socialist German Workers Party (Nazi Party) did. All of them are/were more controlling than multi-party democracies. All one party states are inherently illegitimate.”
Yeah, but how good is Saudi Arabia? How good is Egypt? Or any of the tin pot dictatorships had Biden has sucked cock for over the past 50 years?
This new assembly of democratic nations countering authoritarianism is just so much horseshit. It certainly isn’t in Australia’s interest to volunteer for frontline service. Yet here we are. Apparently.
“ It will really only be the US, as usual, with token crap from poodle Australia and occasional visits of UK ships playing Rule Britannia as they dream of the good ol’ days of Empire.”
To about 1.4 billion people that smells a lot like … 1860 style ‘diplomacy’ … what could possibly go wrong? Expect for a mistake of course … FMD.
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:57 pm
Your dumb arguments frednk, as I mentioned I had extended period of time of 2 years, and traveled.
Nothing happened to me, and nothing happened during my trip that constitutes mass destruction or abduction of any kind.
Your youtube links are shit.
You are fake.
“Life Inside China’s Total Surveillance State”
China has mass surveillance, yes, they have many CCTV to keep the streets safe, unlike Australia and the rest of the West.
I been on Planes, boats, trains, buses, 3 wheel bikes, taxis, ubers, DD.
When Scott is asked about the Q & Tim Stewart he always goes off on tangent about not answering “a rumour” .. why don’t any of the jurnos just follow up with what part is a rumor, list the facts & put it to him directly.
The real storey is the coverup / denial not that he knows the lunatic Stewart.
AE
When the LNP loses you will find that yes we are on the frontlines.
What you mean to say I am sure is we don’t need to step aggressively forward with megaphone diplomacy with delusions of grandeur pretending Australia is running the foreign affairs policy of the United States so we can afford to play as if the United States military was our military
Something like that. Edit: in case of confusion. That’s a geographical reality.
Zerlo says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:58 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:56 pm
I don’t trust Satellite images since they can be tampered with, further more, we found out that IRAQ never had WOMD.
And finally frednk, I been to Xinjiang, and visited various number of minority groups, and never saw anything what is on the media.
If you say so Zerlo.
Bottom line the CCP has made a big mistake, after Mao they passed a rule, 8 years was the top dog limit, they didn’t want it to happen again. Trump tried to stuff up the USA constitution and failed. China was not so lucky when Xi tried. He should be gone, the damage done and being forgotten.
China and the rest of the world is in for a very difficult time
Zerlo says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:01 pm
…
Your youtube links are shit.
Maybe, but no more so than the junk you post. Give the bullshit a rest.
Andrew_Earlwood
1860 indeed. China hasn’t forgotten the Opium Wars etc and what the arseholes of empire inflicted upon them. A few more people in the West need to learn what they and their ‘Empires’ inflicted on China .The poms sending the aircraft carrier to swan about the ‘Far East’ will go down a treat.
What ever waffle the pollies come out with business is voting with their wallets.
.
.
European Companies to Invest More in China After Pandemic
Bloomberg News
June 8, 2021,
…….A quarter of the surveyed companies are “onshoring” their supply chains by moving production lines into China or switching to suppliers with local production…………..European businesses are increasing investment in China and moving supply chains onshore after the quick recovery from the pandemic last year made China an even more important source of growth and profits.
Nearly 60% of European companies plan to expand their China operations in 2021, up from 51% last year, according to an annual survey by the European Chamber of Commerce released Tuesday. About half of the 585 respondents reported profit margins in China higher than their global average, a jump from the 38% recorded a year earlier..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-08/european-companies-plan-to-invest-more-in-china-after-pandemic
poroti:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:48 pm
[‘Mavis
Any question about his dodgy maates will be met with his std. response. He”ll find the question “deeply offensive”.’]
Yea, that too, rehearsing that line on the way back in Air Force One. It’s said in politics that it’s okay, normal to be disliked but to be the subject of ridicule can be career-destroying – just ask Abbott.
He had an audience with the Queen who would have been told about his QAnon bestie. I wonder if he checked out her shoes to see if they were red after devouring a child in the back of a SW1A pizza shop(?)
Zerlo says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:01 pm
…
China has mass surveillance, yes, they have many CCTV to keep the streets safe, unlike Australia and the rest of the West.
And you think it’s ok? The benevolent dictator.
One of two countries where I have seen blood on the hotel floor. In china it was on the passage way. God knows how it got there, but it is not something you see in Australia.
For the RECORD, I have been totally frank and open about my stay in China for the years I have been there.
From Chengdu, to Xinjiang to other parts of China
If something happened while I was in China (or even see it happen), I would be mention it.
But I haven’t, and that is a fact, as long as you follow the rules of the country you are staying at, and don’t do anything stupid, you are totally welcome.
I had a fun time while I was in China, and planning another trip in a few years for a bigger trip around Asia when this pandemic ends.
No threat I felt at all, and I was completely safe as well.
The weak arguments about China this and that is just a stupid political bias of the day of the Government.
Fun fact, you can drink a beer in China on the streets, in USA only certain in certain states.
fun fact, China is the safest country in the world:
Here are the 10 safest countries in the world:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/safest-countries-in-the-world
China ()
India ()
United States ()
Indonesia ()
Pakistan ()
Brazil ()
Nigeria ()
Bangladesh ()
Russia ()
Mexico ()
Mavis
Oh for a cheeky reporter to ask Scotty what color Her Maj’s shoes were and were they red.
Poroti
News for you. Australia is going to deepen its ties to ASEAN.
And India. We are not the British. We don’t have to answer for the British Empire any more than India does.
Our trade with ASEAN approaches that of our trade with Japan and the United States. Combined outdoing trade with China. ASEAN is our region.
Zerlo
I am of the view that China has the best beer in the would. That does not mean that Xi has not made a serious mistake and we are all going to suffer.
I love China and I love the people, but that does not change the fact, the CCP has made a serious mistake, Xi should be gone.
Zerlo
I think you copy and pasted the wRONg table, these are the 10 safest from the link you provided…………
.
Ten Safest Countries in the World
The top 10 safest countries in the world are as follows:
Iceland
New Zealand
Portugal
Austria
Denmark
Canada
Singapore
Czech Republic
Japan
Switzerland
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/safest-countries-in-the-world
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:13 pm
See my point above, I never felt unsafe in China.
In Australia, never felt safe.
Just being on the platform at transportation can get you into hospital.
I’ve seen passengers attack Station staff – especially the whole Donald Trump path.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/12/morgan-poll-redistribution-and-preselection-latest/comment-page-38/#comment-3626599
Between New Caledonia, French Polynesia and British Columbia, NATO members France and Canada have Pacific territory and thus some direct interest in the Pacific.
NATO also has Pacific allies such as Japan and South Korea.
Zerlo says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:20 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:13 pm
See my point above, I never felt unsafe in China.
In Australia, never felt safe.
You have a serious problem.
Of the links i posted this is the best. It pretty much highlights the bullshit you carry on with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evBzPwCdeHI
Goodness me the Hanrahans, Western self-loathers, defeatists and appeasers are out in full force tonight.
The G7 GDP is around 60% of the world’s GDP.
The G7 population is around 750 million.
NATO (other than the US) can keep Russia well-focused and has enough reach to make things difficult to impossible for China in 40% of its oil source via the Indian Ocean.
And if you really want to talk about the evils of history then no state in the world has inflicted more deaths on its own population than China has over the past two centuries.
Why do you all think China has not already invaded Taiwan?
Zerlo
And I will add, pretending that China has no problems does no-one any service. Xi is going to create a disaster, the sooner he goes the better.
The Qld State budget is now forecasting no further State revenue from coal after 2023. Two years and profits from State owned power plants, mines and royalties on others will be zero.
Queensland has the world’s largest remaining reserves of high grade black coal, hauled by state of the art electric rail, connected to a good quality state power grid. If they can’t make a profit burning coal in Qld it is probably not profitable anywhere else either. (This is not a criticism of the State budget, which is being refreshingly honest).
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/15/queensland-budget-forecasts-coal-power-revenue-will-disappear-amid-influx-of-renewables?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
In response, Michael McCormack has promised emergency shipments of barista machines to QLD starting in 2023, to cover Brisbane’s looming coffee shortage.
poroti:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:15 pm
[‘Mavis
Oh for a cheeky reporter to ask Scotty what color Her Maj’s shoes were and were they red.’]
Ha, ha. “The Chaser” might if they’re still going.
guytaur
You may be in for some ASEAN shock in the not too distant future.
.
Is a China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Likely in 2021?
Things look promising for an expansion of ASEAN-China ties – but some formidable hurdles remain.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/is-a-china-asean-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-likely-in-2021/
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:24 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 9:26 pm
You are just finding random links that has already been dis-proven.
Fun Fact, the western countries have already decided this path, things like Indue Card, Voting Cards, Protest laws, national security laws, kangaroo courts, torture camps (aka Guantanamo bay, detention camps).
You can also get penalties “aka Demerit points” while on Social benifits if you miss reporting periods.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/02/the-demerit-system-is-ruthless-social-policy-designed-to-keep-the-poor-powerless
So yeah, freddy.
You not filling me up with any so hope here.
The fascist right are winning.
Here are the 10 safest countries in the world:
——————
Where is Airstrip One? Must be near the top.
‘Mexico ()’ – I thought that could be wrong, plus a number of others.
Poroti I think Zerlo’s table is total population rank.
boerwar
You need to update your G7 gdp % by shit loads, it is years out of date.
.
But as the economic power of the G7 has declined – from making up 80% of the world economy in 1975 to around 40% today –
https://theconversation.com/g7-summit-theres-a-big-agenda-but-the-groups-world-beating-influence-is-much-diminished-162442
The ‘obstacles’ include bully boy rhetoric, invasions, trade punishments, resource raiding, territory capture and Chinese racism towards SEA peoples.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/12/morgan-poll-redistribution-and-preselection-latest/comment-page-38/#comment-3626617
The Saudi and Egyptian regimes are nasty pieces of work, no doubt about that. Hopefully with the reduced and further reducing need for Saudi oil, the democracies ability and willingness to exert pressure for significant reform will increase.
However, the geopolitical priority issues are clearly the PRC and Putin`s Russia as they have greater negative geopolitical influence and potential with their larger economies, larger militaries and permanent veto seats on the security council.
p
Cf proportion of GDP, you are right. My bad. I was looking at the global wealth figure.
Poroti
You are in for a shock if you think it’s an exclusive rather than inclusive game.
We can trade and be allies with the USA in an International Rules based order AND trade with China as the US Japan et al do.
We just need to stop the stupid megaphone diplomacy.
That’s it. The policy we had before Morrison shot his mouth off. We can’t return to it thanks to Morrison but we can be independent and be a close partner of ASEAN to secure our region.
It is in Australia’s interest that the Phillipines sovereignty is respected it’s in our interest that Japan’s is. Ditto Indonesia Malaysia Ditto Thailand etc.
It’s our region. It’s our sovereignty on the line too.
Zerlo
The west is not without sin that is for sure. Go no further than the opium wars. But Mao killed more Chinese. Guantanamo bay is a few hundred totally different scale to the sins done to and done by China.