Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”

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  1. On the poll tracker it is showing the Morgan Poll at 50.5 alp to 49.5 lnp. But the data from Morgan in the article says it’s 51/49.

    Like other polls at the moment it’s the undecided number that is so large. What are they waiting for!

  2. The very gradual recovery in Labor’s PV seems to be intact. They have a chance….but only a slim one. At this juncture, the LNP should be reasonably confident they would hang on to office. There’s not enough movement in QLD or WA to eject them from government.

  3. Morning all. Morrison’s “G7 visit” gets off to a suitably farcical start. He is one of four leaders invited by Boris Johnson as host as part of the “G7+”. He gets to meet Johnson plus the leaders of India, South Korea and South Africa, not the G7. He gets to talk to them about covid, not his nonsense about climate change. The grownups will discuss climate change policy at the G7.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-11/fog-delays-scott-morrison-g7-australia-pledges-20m-vaccines-dose/100210290

  4. ‘ We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week…’

    I think you will. A couple of us have been polled this week past.

  5. https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8726-federal-voting-intention-june-2021-202106090557

    If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 5.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for.”

    “… if a Federal Election were held now the ALP has a narrow advantage and would be likely to enter government with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents: “Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 51% marginally in front of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis in early June. The ALP’s support has increased 0.5% points since mid-March on the back of strong support in Victoria – which is now enduring its fourth lockdown since the COVID-19 pandemic began.””

  6. lib/nats majority government wont be retained with a combined primary vote of less than 41%

    Labor needs primary vote 36%+ , to get a change of government

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Kate McClymont paints a pen picture of Morrison’s shady mate, Tim Stewart – and it’s not pretty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-pm-s-pal-put-satanic-paedophile-conspiracy-in-the-public-eye-20210611-p580bx.html
    An American conspiracy theory about a Satanic child sexual abuse ring has gained a foothold in Australia. Tim Stewart is one of the believers, and also a long-time friend of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, writes Richard Cooke.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/12/the-qanon-conspiracy/162342000011851
    A $1.8 billion settlement of the government’s broken robo-debt scheme has re-invigorated calls from Labor and the Greens for a royal commission to hold ministers accountable for the program that a judge on Friday declared a “shameful chapter” in the country’s treatment of the poor. (There’s no way known this unprincipled mob will accede to that request!)
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shameful-chapter-judge-blasts-government-as-he-approves-robo-debt-settlement-20210611-p5807c.html
    Peter van Onselen says that Labor is gearing up for another Mediscare election.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/its-health-vs-the-economy-as-sides-gird-for-battle/news-story/0e390abb1c00f844bd5b50b7b11965b2
    Looming changes to Medicare rebates have brought howls of protest and the potential for another ‘Mediscare’ campaign by Labor. But, experts say, the real problem is the rise of private health and the slow drift to a US-style system, writes Rick Morton.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/12/medicare-under-attack/162342000011859
    With predictions of a worsening election climate looming, pundits predict Scott Morrison will call an election this year and base his strategy on John Howard’s 2001 campaign, writes Laura Tingle. Yes, the Tampa election.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-looks-to-howard-s-2001-victory-for-an-election-strategy-20210610-p57zxx
    Dennis Atkins reckons the PM may learn a valuable lesson in vaccine politics at the G7.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/06/11/dennis-atkins-g7-scott-morrison/
    David Crowe reports that a political clash on national security could end within days under a Labor offer to pass new federal laws to give police more power to ban aviation workers who fail criminal intelligence checks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-offers-deal-on-airport-security-but-holds-out-on-shipping-checks-20210611-p580d6.html
    And right on cue, Nick McKenzie writes that Australian Federal Police have arrested an employee of an Emirates-owned air services company and charged him with drug trafficking and money laundering offences as a result of the Operation Ironside investigation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/airport-worker-arrested-and-charged-with-drug-trafficking-and-money-laundering-20210611-p580c8.html
    Peter Hartcher looks at the methods used in Operation Ironside and concludes that the onus on scrutineers of state power is now heavier and the political argument in favour of enforcement is stronger.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/cops-and-robbers-reboot-why-we-need-the-long-arm-of-digital-trickery-to-defeat-global-crime-20210611-p580dh.html
    The Anglican Church has a serious, dangerous problem with women. Julia Baird writes that a report out this week found that those inside the church are significantly more likely to have experienced abuse than those in the broader population. Julia settles some old scores in this contribution..
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-church-stripped-bare-high-rate-of-domestic-abuse-among-anglicans-exposed-20210611-p5809z.html
    Paul Karp writes that the former high court justice Michael Kirby has warned against the “excessive protection” of religious freedom that could diminish the rights of non-believers and minorities, as a report reveals 70% of Australians say religion is not personally important to them.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/australians-are-very-skeptical-michael-kirby-warns-against-excessive-protection-of-religious-freedoms
    A key government MP says the Tamil family detained on Christmas Island could have a resolution to their plight within two weeks as federal ministers consider a legal brief that could allow the asylum seekers to settle in their former home in Queensland.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-gone-on-far-too-long-nationals-mp-says-biloela-family-could-have-answer-in-two-weeks-20210611-p580ch.html
    Paul Bongiorno tells us about the human toll of border protection who says why Dutton chose to make an example of this Tamil couple and their two Australian-born daughters is a mystery.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2021/06/12/the-human-toll-border-protection/162342000011861
    If you think Australia making an example of a sick three-year-old is an exception, think again. This is what we do, writes a disillusioned Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/12/if-you-think-australia-making-an-example-of-a-sick-three-year-old-is-an-exception-think-again-this-is-what-we-do
    As her daughter battles sepsis, Priya Murugappan talks to The Saturday Paper about the four-year-old’s dramatic health decline while held in immigration detention. By Rebekah Holt.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/12/sick-trapped-scared-priya-speaks-perth-hospital/162342000011849
    Recently, a Federal Court Judge ordered the immediate release of a young man from immigration detention. The man had been in immigration detention for five years. The Federal Government wasn’t happy. It introduced legislation into the Commonwealth Parliament to make sure that no such release could happen again. The Government’s power to detain non-citizens indefinitely was affirmed and strengthened. That was not a good outcome, writes law professor, Spencer Zifcak.
    https://johnmenadue.com/detaining-refugees-indefinitely-the-executive-v-the-judiciary/
    Nick O’Malley and Tom Rabe tell us that a leading Australian energy expert has said the NSW government’s move to transition the state’s transport network to renewable energy forms part of a clear indication it is moving towards a broad decarbonisation strategy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-don-t-need-national-government-targets-nsw-pushes-ahead-with-decarbonisation-20210611-p580ap.html
    Some have tried to suggest Scott Morrison has turned away from the fearful “negative globalism” mindset that shaped his foreign policy while Donald Trump was in office. But the Australian prime minister arrives in Britain for this weekend’s G7 meeting very much a man whose first instinct remains to turn inward in a world that is reopening, begins the editorial in The Saturday Paper.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2021/06/12/inward-bound/162342000011857
    Deborah Snow writes that history is at stake as two sides face off in the Ben Roberts-Smith case but agree that the judge should “lend weight” to efforts to persuade the federal government to declassify more secret documents and photographs that might prove central to the case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/history-is-at-stake-as-two-sides-face-off-in-the-ben-roberts-smith-case-20210611-p580ab.html
    A military sociologist who helped expose alleged war crimes by Australian soldiers says she won’t be bullied or intimidated, insisting cultural change is needed within the defence force, reports Anthony Galloway.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/i-won-t-be-bullied-or-intimidated-war-crimes-study-author-says-fixing-culture-integral-to-national-security-20210611-p5808s.html
    Christian Porter and his defamation barrister have been ordered to pay legal costs, expected to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, after losing a court fight with a friend of the woman who accused the federal minister Mr Porter of rape. Porter and his legal team have not fared well so far in this saga.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/christian-porter-defamation-barrister-ordered-to-pay-jo-dyer-s-legal-costs-20210611-p580e2.html
    Ageing societies and shrinking workforces are shaking up the international order and will change the way Australia looks at migration, aged care and the economy, explains Jacob Greber.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/older-poorer-less-productive-australia-s-demographic-challenge-20210610-p57zzi
    Elizabeth Knight writes about the rollout that’s even worse than the vaccine debacle. She puts scorn on the government’s craven approach to the inevitable introduction of electric vehicles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/the-rollout-that-s-even-worse-than-the-vaccine-debacle-20210610-p58011.html
    Microbiologists Brendan Crabb and Mike Toole examine the use of lockdowns in Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-lockdowns-the-answer-every-time-there-is-a-covid-19-outbreak-20210611-p580cc.html
    Frustrated with the federal government’s beleaguered vaccination plan, the states and territories have stepped in. But experts warn the race to vaccinate the nation is becoming a ‘free-for-all’, writes Mike Seccombe.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/12/state-leaders-seize-control-covid-19-vaccine-rollout/162342000011850
    Gerard Henderson tells UK diplomats and others to butt out of giving Australia gratuitous advice.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/great-friends-sure-but-dont-lecture-us-on-emissions-targets/news-story/50291944a7f51edcbd4e0cf3dd26bd86
    Ignore, defend and pretend: Scott Morrison’s G7 climate strategy is embarrassing says Bill Hare.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/11/ignore-defend-and-pretend-scott-morrisons-g7-climate-strategy-is-embarrassing
    The rollout of Covid-19 vaccines to Australian prisons has been delayed despite evidence from around the world that the virus can be a disaster for incarcerated people, explains Denham Sadler.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/12/delays-vaccinating-prisoners/162342000011860
    Attempting to tame the juveniles in the play pit – or at least their stupidity – is a thankless task writes John Lord.
    https://theaimn.com/attempting-to-tame-the-juveniles-in-the-play-pit-or-at-least-their-stupidity-is-a-thankless-task/
    The National Archives has raised almost $100,000 in donations in a bid to save its most at-risk records as some of the nation’s pre-eminent historians argue it should never have been forced into a public appeal for funding.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/donations-pour-in-to-archives-as-historians-decry-decay-of-national-memory-bank-20210611-p58078.html
    Gideon Haigh lets fly at this “uncaring” government, saying “We took 40 years to commit to Australian archives and 60 years to nurture them. On present trends, this government will undermine them irrevocably in the next five.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/funding-threat-exposes-nations-memory-to-dementia/news-story/f418ec6da479b9dc8e181e3518b9fd42
    More than 140,000 JobSeeker recipients will be up to $457 worse off under a planned job services crackdown, a Senate hearing has heard. Matthew Elmas writes that the Morrison government is trying to save $191.6 million over four years by dumping a grace period that backdates JobSeeker payments to when a claim is first made, instead requiring recipients to finish a job plan first.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/06/12/jobseeker-welfare-payments-australia/
    Nearly half of students at public schools are considered disadvantaged – either living remotely, with a disability, having an Indigenous background or from a low socio-economic background – compared to just 20 per cent at private schools, yet private schools receive far more government funding. Trevor Cobbold reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/governments-back-privileged-in-education-public-schools-bear-burden/
    Revelations that AUSTRAC has ramped up its scrutiny of National Australia Bank into a formal investigation into non-compliance with anti-money laundering laws should come as no surprise. More disturbing is how long it has taken the regulator to do something, complain Adele Ferguson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-brutal-reality-for-nab-regulatory-problems-have-been-a-recurring-theme-for-years-20210611-p580c5.html
    Ross Gittins tells us why people can be much nicer than it suits economists to assume.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/why-people-can-be-much-nicer-than-it-suits-economists-to-assume-20210610-p57zzh.html
    Water policy in the Murray–Darling basin has failed farmers and the environment. Will a new conciliatory conference and a promised reset force necessary change before it’s too late, explores Margaret Simons.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/12/conciliation-murray-darling/162342000011853
    The AIMN explains why no one can believe Anne Ruston and the LNP when it comes to the Cashless Debit Card.
    https://theaimn.com/why-no-one-can-believe-anne-ruston-and-the-lnp-when-it-comes-to-the-cashless-debit-card/
    “Dan Andrews broke his back – why is there such a frenzy of conspiracy around it?”, asks Ariel Bogle.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2021/jun/12/dan-andrews-broke-his-back-why-is-there-such-a-frenzy-of-conspiracy-around-it
    A dark cloud hangs over the energy sector as it faces a climate change reckoning. But some are convinced there is money to be made as the world recovers from COVID-19, explain Nick Toscano and Charlotte Grieve.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/squeezing-one-last-drop-from-big-oil-the-great-climate-debate-shaking-australia-s-energy-sector-20210608-p57z54.html
    Amanda Reade writes that Chris Dore has defended the Australian against claim of ‘defamatory abuse’ of ABC journalists.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jun/11/chris-dore-defends-the-australian-against-claim-of-defamatory-abuse-of-abc-journalists
    News Corp has written down the value of its once high-flying The Sun title to zero, underscoring the dramatic decline in Britain’s newspaper industry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rupert-murdoch-s-the-sun-uk-s-biggest-newspaper-for-decades-is-now-worth-zero-20210612-p580fc.html
    In a tragic and bitter irony, American Christians are deeply divided in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidency, weeps Greg Sheridan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/evangelicals-faith-misplaced-in-trump/news-story/a6a13f97b7b5587bb3c8f31c29e30af0
    The Justice Department’s internal watchdog has launched an investigation after revelations that former president Donald Trump’s administration secretly seized phone data from at least two House Democrats as part of an aggressive leaks probe. Democrats called the seizures a “shocking” abuse of power.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-officials-seized-data-from-house-democrats-in-leaks-probe-20210612-p580fb.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope!!!!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/pMXRnDj3SUU44AkPpn97sC/534470b8-8666-4c2d-864c-e2f9c7b10602.jpg/r13_0_1068_703_w600_h400_fmax.jpg
    David Rowe
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3lkFv1VgAAd2JB.jpg
    Alan Moir
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/33dda17eca5373a3d0c408ee34e5867e08e67b37.jpg
    Jon Kudelka
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/cartoon/public/Cartoons/kudelka_replace_jun12_panadol.jpg
    Mark David
    https://independentaustralia.net/_lib/slir/w800/i/article/img/article-15180-hero.jpg
    https://independentaustralia.net/_lib/slir/w750/https://independentaustralia.net/sc/vaccine-vulnerable-first_800px.jpg
    https://independentaustralia.net/_lib/slir/w750/https://independentaustralia.net/sc/Morrison%27s-covid-response_800px.jpg
    Peter Broelman
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3j8TaHVkAAHw-8.jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3j7xQJVUAYXays.jpg
    Andrew Dyson
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/181f3e59e714cefbe659a080333a699e54227267.jpg
    Simon Letch
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.139%2C$multiply_0.7554%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/1d4325cfae99805cbc881fb6bf65b9bf8ee357a9.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/e383ab791b233308b8e60bcf21f8bcde9d0b5a10.jpg
    Matt Golding
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/be694e1e01000330c9503ff271198ad3a4709f7a.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/f38855f7244d7eb0a73a743089a41ba805913266.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/0eef00f0ce720660a4ddf8257b4299dd0ea5ba92.jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3kSr8_VkAAZTWF.jpg
    Glen Le Lievre – with a gif
    https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1401471215227658243/5grRy2UB.jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3j-VYrUUAEQZYT.jpg
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1403170340553981954
    Mark Knight
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/b77337e40c6a8d0442a9235211708c6e?width=1024#image.jpg
    Johannes Leak
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/bb19cceda5e31d5762d4815029be175d?width=1024#image.jpg
    John Shakespeare
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/123c00a848ffd1fe24f069548e01516f0344f2c4.jpg
    Joe Benke
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.388%2C$multiply_1.0582%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_77%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/32c74e0f26d1e7e09f6481203b4de8eac31a8064.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/d2a5e0aa57c8e9d41ee790d1a107addf3b473a70.jpg

    From the US

    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623421801/lk061121dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623421699/wu210609.gif
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623421537/sk061121dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623421447/Cjones06142021.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623421181/20210610edphc-a.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623334518/wu210608.gif
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623334435/mrz061021dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623334352/jd061021dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1623334257/20210609edptc-a.jpg

  8. lizzie,
    If you’re out there, I hope you get your power back on very soon. I also hope you haven’t had any tree problems at your place!

  9. I’m not sure Morgan’s reasoning holds good.

    A high(er) percentage of undecideds does not equal a hung Parliament.

    If there was an Undecided Party running, maybe they’d have a chance of picking up a few seats and holding the balance of power, but the closest we get to that is the cross bench, and Undecided does not necessarily equal Voting Independent.

    On the day, Undecideds have to make a decision (or not vote at all, which rules them out of contention). Morgan’s own figures suggest that when they do, the break is 51/49, which does not normally result in anything close to a hung Parliament.

  10. Insiders Sunday, 13 Jun

    David Speers joins Annika Smethurst, Niki Savva and Phil Coorey to discuss Scott Morrison’s first major international trip since the beginning of the pandemic for the G7+ Leaders’ Summit, climate action and vaccine rollout.

    Guest : Adam Bandt – Greens Leader

  11. I’m going to count the number of times Adam Bandt mentions Labor or ‘the duopoly’ on Sunday morning. I think I’ll run out of fingers and toes.

  12. Adam Bandt balance between the environment and his campaigning for the liberals will be interesting for sure.

    Interesting USA discussion on the damage to election prospects the extreme left create for moderates is discussed here.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8C_td50piY

    Australian Labor is lucky in that they have a party to distance themselves from. The Greens campaigning for the Liberals makes the distancing simpler.

  13. zoomstersays: Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 8:58 am

    boer

    She’s a long way from Yarra Glen, although not far from the Yarra.

    **********************************

    Zoomster – you guys doing OK ?????

  14. zoomstersays: Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 9:04 am

    phoenixRed

    No problems here, the river is rising but at a fairly normal level for winter.

    ******************************************

    Thanks – its good news to hear ! – very bad in the Latrobe Valley – Traralgon especially bearing the brunt of it

  15. I just note in passing that the margin of error for the Morgan poll is about 1.9%, so is the 2PP 50.5-49.5 or 51-49? Can’t say. Who would win? Labor or the Coalition, depending upon the vagaries of single-member electorates. Would there be a hung parliament? Possibly.

    Basically too close to call.

  16. boer

    Still worrying, though.

    I’ve tried to find satellite images of the flooding – surely a thing in this day and age – to check her place out but haven’t been able to so far.

  17. Morning all. Thanks for the summary BK. On the G7, as I posted earlier I still don’t believe Morrison even gets an opportunity to spout his climate change denialist policy nonsense to the G7 leaders. He may not even meet them. The BBC and Guardian UK reporting suggests the four “G7+” leaders are only there to talk about covid, and only to Boris.

    We will recall that last time Boris Johnston hosted a climate change leaders summit via webinar, he did not even give Morrison a speaking slot. What has changed? Morrison’s spin on non-action is only for domestic consumption.

  18. Morrison’s spin on non-action is only for domestic consumption.

    He can fool enough of the local punters, but not the international community.

  19. VCT Et3e @ #6 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 7:24 am

    “… if a Federal Election were held now the ALP has a narrow advantage and would be likely to enter government with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents: “Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 51% marginally in front of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis in early June. The ALP’s support has increased 0.5% points since mid-March on the back of strong support in Victoria – which is now enduring its fourth lockdown since the COVID-19 pandemic began.””

    Wow. The anti-Green ranters here will be frothing at the mouth! 🙂

  20. Lizzie lives at Don Valley which is 30 minutes from Yarra Glen, There are floods nearby at Launching Place. She’s about 2k from the Yarra. She also has some monstrous trees on her block and the vision of fallen trees in the area has been quite devastating. She may not have power at the moment. Emergency services are really stretched.

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #30 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 9:45 am

    Lizzie lives at Don Valley which is 30 minutes from Yarra Glen, There are floods nearby at Launching Place. She’s about 2k from the Yarra. She also has some monstrous trees on her block and the vision of fallen trees in the area has been quite devastating. She may not have power at the moment. Emergency services are really stretched.

    Hoping power is the only or main issue but worrying.

  22. The thing about TPPs being that close is that it’s no guarantee the House of Reps will be equally close. Swings don’t get distributed evenly, and in these post-Covid times I suspect we will see increased variance from state to state.

    In reality, a 50-50 (or 51-49 or whatever) result could just as easily mean a comfortable majority for either party (though the current pendulum plus the advantages of incumbency are probably to the LNP’s benefit) as it would a hung parliament, nor are the Greens assured to be the kingmakers in said hung parliament.

    Roy Morgan has always had this odd tendency to present their polls as gospel in the write-up, when you’d think their generally spotty record and the events of the last federal election would have made them a bit more wary about that.

  23. I hope Lizzie is OK.
    I am not certain where exactly she is located but many in my community are still without power, or phone/internet(isn’t copper great). Mobile coverage was also out for many which may explain Lizzies absence.
    I live at the edge of the Yarra Valley – I can see the spring which is the source of one of it’s tributaries in the paddock over the road. A short walk over the hill and I can see the spring which is the source of the Bunyip river – which also saw flooding.
    After the weather event many locals spent the day clearing the roads of trees – which is standard practice here, the SES has peoples rooves to sow back on etc.
    My favourite(vale Kayjay) son was still out yesterday clearing the roads and peoples driveways.
    My other favourite son lives closer to Lizzie I believe – on the Yarra – he is captain of the local CFA and his wife’s car was nearly swept away. Haven’t spoken to him much, he is flat out as you would imagine.

  24. There are approx 58000 people still without power. And it is basically all in the area which covers where Lizzie resides.

    There was a monster of a storm other night, heavy rain and winds. Brought down huge trees and it was difficult for emergency services to even get through some areas as they were blocked off.

    They are anticipating power to be restored by tomorrow.

  25. I’m sure Morrison will deep fake some images of himself meeting with the G7 leaders if he needs to. 😉

    Although I did read that he is actually scheduled for a meeting with President Joe.

  26. Zoomster

    The media have worked so hard over past two weeks to incite anger in Victorians. What I saw was a record number of us being tested and getting the vaccine.

    It is winter and I dont think people have generally minded not being able to go far and wide. The weather has been conducive to literally chilling out.

    I keep saying the fiberals and the media have been the most difficult thing to contend with during this pandemic. And the ABC hasnt helped one little bit.

  27. Player One says:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 9:38 am
    VCT Et3e @ #6 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 7:24 am

    “… if a Federal Election were held now the ALP has a narrow advantage and would be likely to enter government with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents: “Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 51% marginally in front of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis in early June. The ALP’s support has increased 0.5% points since mid-March on the back of strong support in Victoria – which is now enduring its fourth lockdown since the COVID-19 pandemic began.””

    Wow. The anti-Green ranters here will be frothing at the mouth!

    Labor has never recovered the support it lost when Gillard caved in to Bob Brown. If they were to do it again they would be forever afterwards unelectable.

    There’s a small chance that Labor will win the coming election. A hung parliament looks more likely than either a win for Labor or the LNP. The LNP have an advantage in such a situation. There are 4 indies who will lend their confidence to the LNP. That would give them enough grunt to hold on.

  28. Steve777 @ #21 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 9:12 am

    I just note in passing that the margin of error for the Morgan poll is about 1.9%, so is the 2PP 50.5-49.5 or 51-49? Can’t say. Who would win? Labor or the Coalition, depending upon the vagaries of single-member electorates. Would there be a hung parliament? Possibly.

    Basically too close to call.

    We still don’t know what was wrong with David Coleman, but as the laziest Member of Parliament he has to go.

  29. And I know the gym owners have been carrying on. The ironic thing is that most people dont bother going to the gym when it is cold. My OH who regularly exercises at local gym, saw the drop off in patronage way before lockdown.

    Meanwhile retail stores have been doing a roaring trade via online and click and collect.

    In any event, retail is back open. Together with hairdressing, beauty etc.

    As usual, the events industry is the hardest hit and that is area the federal govt should be supporting the most. And it has not.

  30. C@t

    Strangely it has been much colder in NSW than Victoria. I believe Sydney was peaking at 9.7 over past few days. Whereas it has been tracking 15 here in Melbourne.

  31. From Kate McClymont’s piece…

    There is no indication that Mr Morrison was influenced to shape his speech to include those words [“ritual abuse”] or that his choice of words was in any way related to QAnon.

    … except that,

    ● One of his best maaates is Australia’s QAnon top dog,

    ● This best maaate bragged about working on Morrison personally, and of using his wife (Morrison’s wife’s taxpayer-funded “Personal Assistant” and BFF) to get Morrison to use the words “ritual abuse” before the speech was delivered,

    ● The speech was in response to the RC report into institutional child abuse, not “ritual” child abuse,

    ● There was no finding in the report which indicated that any children had been involved in any rituals whose aim was to abuse children,

    ● When questioned, Morrison used the classic conversation stopper technique of claiming to be not only offended, but “deeply offended” that such questions could even be asked.

    Apart from the above, “no indication” at all.

  32. GG

    Richard Willingham has been a liberal apologist for quite a while. You only have to look at his Twitter stream to see what he chooses to retweet. He together with Leigh Sales should head off to channel 7 or sky news.

  33. Vic,

    It’s not that hard to work out,

    Next time you see a copy of the Herald Sun skim through and see who the ads are for. Basically, the ads pay for the newspaper. So, it’s unsurprising that the editorial and reporting slant of the paper is pro retail and small business. These are the interest groups that want the lockdowns lifted.

    Most people seem to be grudgingly compliant but really want to get on with normal life.

  34. GG

    Of course.

    I’m over this pandemic too. But it isnt over with us.
    Our borders are closed, but returnees are still coming back with the virus, and it leaking into community is part of the risk.

    Either we accept this reality, or we whinge and rant and rave

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