Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

• The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”

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  2. Victoria @ #45 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 10:22 am

    C@t

    Strangely it has been much colder in NSW than Victoria. I believe Sydney was peaking at 9.7 over past few days. Whereas it has been tracking 15 here in Melbourne.

    And the Wind Chill factor here has been terrible! When it says 9 it feels like 6, that sort of thing. 😐

    All I can hear is the wind going woo, woo, woo and shaking the windows!

  4. Look, as though Scott Morrison would ever admit that he subscribed to the QAnon phenomenon. He’d give it a nod and a wink though. He’ll exploit any bunch of numpties for electoral gain.

    Though he is definitely feeling the heat because Lynelle Stuart no longer works at Kirribilli House. And that is a recent decision it seems.

  7. Victoria records one COVID-19 case as Victorians stay at home over long weekend

    Victoria has recorded one new locally acquired case of COVID-19.

    The health department says it is investigating the source of the infection.

    There are now seven infections in Victoria where authorities still do not know the acquisition source.

    The other mystery cases are a Reservoir household of four and two Victorians who travelled to Queensland before testing positive.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/melbourne/victoria-records-one-covid-19-case-as-victorians-stay-at-home-over-long-weekend/ar-AAKXvSF?ocid=msedgntp

  8. From said article (pointed out on twitter…)

    ‘But this year the gloss has started to come off, polling shows…’

    followed by:

    ‘Both Labor and Liberal insiders say they haven’t seen a major vote shift in their research with the ALP still in a winning position.’

  9. Good Morning

    You can tell the bad faith actors. They are the ones saying the Greens campaign for the Liberals. All of them.

    Pure liars.

    The Greens campaign for the Greens.

  11. I trust Morrison won’t get the cold shoulder this time around:

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/scott-morrison-awkwardly-standing-on-his-own-during-g7-summit-054119405.html

    His mind’s probably on how will he worm his way out of having a very special QAnon mate, who uses the nom-de-plume “Burn Notice” for his Twitter posts, ‘a term intelligence agencies use when an agent or a source is officially scrapped or “burned” for providing fabricated or unreliable information.’

  12. Bit on the chilly side out prospecting up near Creswick. Probably around 12 degrees.
    Lots of trees down accross the roads, couldn’t get to my favourite patch so trying somewhere new.

  13. guytaur @ #59 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 10:42 am

    Good Morning

    You can tell the bad faith actors. They are the ones saying the Greens campaign for the Liberals. All of them.

    Pure liars.

    The Greens campaign for the Greens.

    And they work with the Liberals to thwart Labor. Just ask Frank Zumbo. Actually he’s probably not the only one who has been giving strategy advice to Greens candidates but the only one who has been caught out doing it.

  14. Victoria @ #47 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 10:23 am

    GG

    Richard Willingham has been a liberal apologist for quite a while. You only have to look at his Twitter stream to see what he chooses to retweet. He together with Leigh Sales should head off to channel 7 or sky news.

    I think he’s genuinely apolitical in his reporting. Very rare.

  15. Cat

    The Greens seeking to get the maximum votes is not a fiendish plot in a conspiracy theory. It’s the natural outcome of doing their best to win elections.

  16. guytaur says:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:42 am
    Good Morning

    You can tell the bad faith actors. They are the ones saying the Greens campaign for the Liberals. All of them.

    Pure liars.

    The Greens campaign for the Greens.

    The Greens have long since ceased to increase their own vote, but by their messaging and campaigning they still have an effect on electoral behaviours. Those behaviours include shifting support from Labor to the LNP. This is deliberate. The Greens know this occurs. They like it. Their goal is to prevent Labor winning outright. This is one of their declared political goals.

    The Greens are an anti-Labor expression. True story. Ask any Green MP or activist how they feel about Labor. They will tell you they think Labor and the LNP are more or less the same and that they hope to extort concessions from minority Labor governments. This is the limit of their ambition – to run political extortion.

    Fuck the Greens.

    The very last thing the Greens want is the election of strong reformist Labor governments. They know this conflicts with their own success. Their success is predicated on the defeat of Labor. Every single thing they do is conditioned by that.

  18. C@tmomma @ #54 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 10:39 am

    Look, as though Scott Morrison would ever admit that he subscribed to the QAnon phenomenon. He’d give it a nod and a wink though. He’ll exploit any bunch of numpties for electoral gain.

    Though he is definitely feeling the heat because Lynelle Stuart no longer works at Kirribilli House. And that is a recent decision it seems.

    The MSM now running with the QAnon connection is bad news for Morrison.

    He was happy to transact in the Trumpist method of operation during the last four years thinking it was a winner, but he was/is wrong.

    To me, everything points to Albanese gaining more and more momentum with a meat and potatoes approach that wins over the burbs.

  19. guytaur says:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:53 am
    N

    You lie about the Greens all the time.

    I don’t think you are a bad actor. Just delusional.

    I simply quote the Greens. There’s no need to invent anything. They campaign against Labor 24/7. This is their daily bread. Take note of the messaging by Green Machine, for example. Every post contains anti-Labor chat. This is not accidental.

  21. For me the main question Morrison needs to answer is,

    why did he used the words “ritual abuse” when referring to the Royal Commission findings?

    Where does the RC report make such a reference and what other people have referred to it in that way?

  22. Re Victoria @10:22.

    The recent big weather system brought cold and snow to NSW, wind and rain to Victoria. It catapulted Cold Antarctic air Northwards into NSW while dragging warm(ish) moist Tasman sea air across Victoria and Tasmania.

    I think we got the better of that deal. Sydney had one very cold day with the temperature failing to reach 10° in many suburbs – it just snuck over 10° in the City.

  26. The Greens are fiendishly plotting to win votes? Who’d have thunk it.

    They could probably do well in a seat like mine, North Sydney. They won’t win it of course but neither can Labor. However, the Greens could gain Senate votes that would otherwise go to the Liberals. For Green-Labor-Liberal, win-win-lose.

  27. Barney

    You jump in again to pretend there are not continual lying about the Greens on this website. Going so far as to pretend we have a First Past The Post voting system.

    Also I don’t do agressive protection of the Greens. Ask Green Machine or Quoll.

  28. “zoomstersays:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:42 am
    From said article (pointed out on twitter…)

    ‘But this year the gloss has started to come off, polling shows…’

    followed by:

    ‘Both Labor and Liberal insiders say they haven’t seen a major vote shift in their research with the ALP still in a winning position.’
    ”

    How many times did we hear this kind of chatter before 2019 elections and things were much worse for LNP before 2019 elections when they lost seats like Wentworth in a by-election. But we also know what happened in 2019 federal election which was preceded Gladys win NSW, which is what gave a ray of hope to LNP.

    And some people on PB think that a driver’s dog can beat Gladys government (I am not saying LNP mind you).

  30. @AmyRemeikis tweets

    What we’re doing isn’t new. The torture we put people through hasn’t just been discovered. The only thing that has changed is public perception. And so lo and behold – MPs begin ‘speaking out’
    Federal Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman has told the ABC he wants the Murugappan family to be allowed to stay in Australia.

    “I think it is time that we brought them back from Christmas Island and that we do look at providing them a long term future in Biloela.” @abcnews

  32. The Greens are same old same old. They’ve been around for more than 30 years.
    Having failed dismally with the olds, they’ve turned to grooming kiddies as their main hope for improving their vote.

  33. guytaur says:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:58 am
    N

    News for you. So do every party that’s not Labor.

    My claim is the Greens are an anti-Labor expression. You persistently deny this. Yet now you rely on it.

    The Greens can do whatever they like. They don’t need permission from anyone for that. But they cannot claim to be both pro-Labor and anti-Labor at the same time. They are anti-Labor. Their strategies, goals and language define them.

    One of the consequences of their campaigning is they help drum votes for the LNP. They live with that. We all do. The LNP derive very many advantages because of it.

  34. Ven,

    The article is about Victorian State Politics. The dynamics and issues are completely different Federally and in NSW.

    The Libs in Victoria are hopeless atm. The posts of Taylormade here on PB give you a good indication of how bereft they are of political acumen. They have done nothing to convince the voters that they are a viable alternative Government.

  35. The real trouble with making policy based on personal emotions in response to a family of four Sri Lankans is that it substitutes (satisfying) emoting with thoroughly unsatisfying rational thought.

    What about the 32 million individual displaced kids sitting hopeless in camps around the world without access to education, health, warmth or security? These kids have names. They suffer.

  36. BW

    Have you joined One Nation yet?

    Grooming kids is the kind of language I would expect of them.

    An insidious phrase given the place it’s most commonly used.
    Or have you joined Qanon?

  37. @sarahinthesen8 tweets

    Children don’t belong in detention.
    And Prime Ministers should act with care and decency, not cruelty and stubbornness.

    #BiloelaFamily

  39. @Bowenchris tweets

    Every state and territory, Labor and Liberal is committed to net zero emissions by 2050.

    Imagine what we could do if we had a Federal Government with a decent renewable energy policy?

    Good climate policy = good jobs policy.

  40. guytaur

    The political grooming of children by ideologues such as those infesting the Greens is hardly new. Hitler was excellent at it. Mao was a dab hand at it as well.

    The poor buggers have no idea that they are being manipulated by devious adults.
    Your focus on the language and not the fact is a revealing deflection.

  41. Steve777

    Yes the winds and rain were vicious here.

    The part of the world GG and I reside, missed the worst of it this time

  42. GG

    That louise Staley who has been front and centre of the Daniel Andrews conspiracy for the fiberals, looks quite deluded.

  43. “Nsays:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 6:25 am
    There’s not enough movement in QLD or WA to eject them ( LNP) from government.
    ”

    In WA state election, WA Labor victory they won like never before and the scale of victory is beyond normal imagination and in QLD Anastasia P win election with increased majority (And before anybody points to me that state elections have very little bearing on federal voting intentions, I would like to point to 2 things
    1. Before 1996 federal election Labor was not in power in all States except NSW and LNP won 1996 election.
    2. Correct me if I am wrong, before 2007 federal elections Labor was in power in all states and ALP won 2007 election.

    My point is even after massive wins in WA and QLD , ALP is barely competitive in those states federally.

  46. boerwar @ #89 Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 11:26 am

    guytaur

    The political grooming of children by ideologues such as those infesting the Greens is hardly new. Hitler was excellent at it. Mao was a dab hand at it as well.

    The poor buggers have no idea that they are being manipulated by devious adults.
    Your focus on the language and not the fact is a revealing deflection.

    The manipulation of youth (ie. BRS) by old conservative warmongering politicians is the greatest harm to humanity.

  47. boerwar says:
    Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 11:14 am
    The real trouble with making policy based on personal emotions in response to a family of four Sri Lankans is that it substitutes (satisfying) emoting with thoroughly unsatisfying rational thought.

    What about the 32 million individual displaced kids sitting hopeless in camps around the world without access to education, health, warmth or security? These kids have names. They suffer.

    Neither Alexander Downer nor Phillip Ruddock would have put the argument differently.

    The Biloela family have suffered too much and there’s no resolution in sight other than their release into the community. This is not a policy. It’s mercy. It is not all about the fate of the tens of millions of displaced persons. It is simply about the reprieve from exemplary punishment of the innocent and the dependant.

    The LNP have perfected cruelty as a political weapon. They know how to use it to great effect. They should exhibit some wisdom to go with their almost culinary use of degradation.

  49. “Good Morning

    You can tell the bad faith actors. …………….”

    So guytar, you get up and seems your 1st post of the morning is abusive crap like this?

    Get a life. 🙁

  50. From a Victorian pov, you’ve got to wonder sometimes whether contact tracers are given the whole truth by some respondents. …?

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