Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”

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  1. Labor keeps getting it all wrong. Promising to abolish the cashless debit card. Going in hard on behalf of unauthorised boat arrivals who have repeatedly been found to have no case for protection.
    These are issues that play best with white, Anglo, high income earners in inner cities and leafy suburbs.
    Hard-working migrants from China and India living in the outer suburbs despise unauthorised boat arrivals and long-term welfare recipients.
    Labor (or more likely the Greens or Indies a la Wilkie or Steggall) will continue to pick up the odd formerly blue ribbon Liberal seat each election. But Labor can’t hope to win government without a swing towards them in the burbs.
    People in the burbs care about stuff like education, access to quality health care and housing prices. But they don’t want to be taxed more to pay for them.
    Labor has a natural advantage on these issues if they can resist the temptation to do a repeat of 2019 and campaign on ramping up taxes on wealth.
    It’s not really that hard. But chasing after the bleeding heart vote is counter-productive. Leave that job to the Greens and Indies.

  2. Yes, lizzie, such a relief to have you back. Especially on this day commemorating strong Labor Women. Count yourself among their number. 🙂

  3. I’ll believe this when Sam Maiden tweets it!!

    Phillip Moore
    @phillipwmoore49

    Breaking News: Reports are leaking that #libspill is on with Fraudenberg white-anting the Tourist PM. Unfortunately he apparently has Dutton doing the numbers for him

  4. meher baba,
    Labor can walk and chew gum at the same time. The Indue card is a crock. It was created to be a money funnel to Liberal Party and National Party grandees. If there are people on Welfare that need help managing their money, there are better ways to do it.

  5. lizzie @ #1194 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 6:36 pm

    I’ll believe this when Sam Maiden tweets it!!

    Phillip Moore
    @phillipwmoore49

    Breaking News: Reports are leaking that #libspill is on with Fraudenberg white-anting the Tourist PM. Unfortunately he apparently has Dutton doing the numbers for him

    If this is true then the internal polling must be terrible! 😆

  6. I will make this observation. Anthony Albanese speaks much more clearly when he is among colleagues. Just listening to him now he was much easier to understand.

  7. Baba

    I see you are trying to resurrect the wedge.

    Truth is empathy wins votes. You just have to convince voters they can have empathy and prosper.

    See President Biden as to how it is done.

    Labor and the Greens have wedged the LNP on mandatory detention.

    Meanwhile Morrison has questions to answer.
    The FBI is clear. Qanon is a terrorist organisation.

  8. @latikambourke tweets
    Britain’s first post-Brexit trade deal is so significant the joint-presser with PMs Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison is not even being broadcast live – not even on Downing St’s YouTube.

    Boris just tried to strongarm Morrison into committing to net zero by 2050 saying that’s what the PM has said he’ll do. That’s NOT what the PM has said he’ll do – he’s said preferably by 2050.

  9. [‘Senior Labor politicians say Prime Minister Scott Morrison has “questions to answer” after Four Corners‘ investigation into his friendship with a prominent Australian supporter of the QAnon conspiracy theory, claiming it raises “national security” risks.’]

    Morrison certainly does have questions to answer that go specifically to national security. Biden, the NSA must be highly concerned about a leader of a country that shares intelligence with it under the “Five Eyes” alliance is on very friendly terms with QAnon’s Oz representative Stewart, who among other things, thinks former US leaders & HM are involved in paedophilia, operating out of pizza parlours. It’s bad enough for Morrison to be mates with Brian Houston who protected his paedophile father, but his friendship with Stewart takes things to a whole new level. He must come clean on his unsavoury, crackpot close mates.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/06/15/morrison-qanon-australia/

  10. Here is a non profit story all Australians should know.

    @sallymcmanus tweets

    Theo should be given an award for keeping the country safe. He refused to clean a plane from China early on in the pandemic because Qantas was not providing his team with proper PPE. If he had not stood his ground more Covid could have spread in our community. He’s a hero.

  11. Talking of spills.. Suga has it rock bottom to avoid a no confidence motion…

    http://jtim.es/FRwe50Farsf?fbclid=IwAR0lLD7t7alBR7x8OOZl1iNSzkCJenXpfmXRMJosHe7UwFEYl5Ax8roVtkI

    Suga “is disqualified to be a leader during a time of crisis,” Edano added. “We strongly demand he immediately step down.”

    The ruling parties and Nippon Ishin no Kai opposition party dismissed the request for an extension and voted down the motion during Tuesday’s Lower House plenary session.

  12. meher baba:

    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 6:31 pm

    [‘It’s not really that hard. But chasing after the bleeding heart vote is counter-productive. Leave that job to the Greens and Indies.’]

    I take it you’re referring to the 546,825* (as at 19:25) who’ve signed a petition, a number of Tories, including Joyce & Abbott (both well known ‘bleeding hearts’), quite a few Tory backbenchers who are reporting back on what their constituents are telling them, a former HC Chief Justice, the AMA, and numerous others who support the Biloela family(?).

    Obviously unknown to you, you can concomitantly support the needs and aspirations of the working man and woman but still call out the cruel & unusual punishment of innocent children.

    * https://www.change.org/p/peter-dutton-bring-priya-back-to-biloela

  13. Working holiday visas will be extended for Australians up to the age of 35 in the historic trade deal just agreed with Britain, after Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison offered last-minute concessions over dinner at Downing Street.

    On Tuesday night AEST, Morrison and Johnson held a joint press conference to announce the in-principle agreement – which could boost the Australian economy by up to $1.3 billion each year and offer exporters new options to pivot away from the volatile Chinese market.

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the deal marked a “new dawn” in the relationship, “underpinned by our shared history and common values.”

    Details of the in-principle agreement will be fleshed out before it is passed by parliaments in both countries, and it will likely take effect from mid-next year.

    Here are some key points:

    The deal will increase the working holiday visa age limit from 30 to 35 and give Australians and Britons a total of three years to live and work in each other’s countries.
    The UK government succeeded in removing the rule that obliges Brits on 12-month working visas in Australia to work for 88 days on farms if they wish to stay another year. A new agriculture visa will be created instead.
    The agreement will also mean a raft of professional qualifications gained in one country will be recognised in the other.
    Fears that the signing might be delayed by a squabble over how much Australian beef and lamb would be allowed into the UK proved unfounded, with the two leaders settling on a scheme which will phase out tariffs over 15 years.

  14. We have been humiliated on the world stage. Badly. Biden absolutely dismissed Morrison as unworthy. Penalties apply.

  15. BK:

    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 7:36 pm

    [‘Laura Tingle going full throttle on Morrison and his relationship with QAnon and Hillsong’s Houston.’]

    Good. It’s a start. Others will catch on.

  16. You can see him saying to himself, “It’s really such a shame. Some of these dark-skinned picanninies are really quite pretty.”

  17. “Fears that the signing might be delayed by a squabble over how much Australian beef and lamb would be allowed into the UK proved unfounded, with the two leaders settling on a scheme which will phase out tariffs over 15 years.”

    15 years! That doesn’t sound like “free trade” to me.

  18. Lisa Wilkinson was watching ABC730…

    ‘That was just a very strange moment on @abc730 when Immigration Minister @AlexHawkeMP had to look away before answering @leighsales’ very simple question about whether he had ever met the Prime Minister’s #QAnon friend Tim Stewart.

    #abc730

  19. BK
    Remembering that number should provide you with plenty of LoLs as you peruse MSM headlines about the ‘yuge’ deal.

  20. BBC is funny…

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57479969

    “China is one of the world’s leading military and economic powers, whose ruling Communist Party has a tight grip on politics, daily life and much of society.”

    China controls much of society…… I think they mean the western countries do that, that is why the west got richer during the pandemic, while the rest of us just turned us into SLAVES even more.

    Having stayed in China for a long period of time, I disagree with this assessment.

    It’s like they are painting China as more evil than Adolf Hitler.

  21. It’s surely a countdown now to ScoMo’s resignation after last night’s Four Corners expose.

    As they say in the tabloid trade “Bombshell!”

  22. Zerlo

    China should have known what it was starting. The West especially Hollywood has been very good at this propaganda game.

  23. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:26 pm

    Where do you think the propaganda has come from? Russia and The weak fascist right of West.

    Pretty dumb there guytaur.

    Regurgitating that arse wipe Donald Trump.


  24. Zerlo says:

    It’s like they are painting China as more evil than Adolf Hitler.

    The argument is not with China but with Xi. Xi has chosen his path, it is going to have consequences, none of it good for anyone.

  25. 4Corners chipping a bit of paint off sQomo’s numbers – Buce and Lib von Tryhard shooting the messenger, ignoring crackpot friend of their leader..

  26. ‘Jaeger says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 7:54 pm

    “Fears that the signing might be delayed by a squabble over how much Australian beef and lamb would be allowed into the UK proved unfounded, with the two leaders settling on a scheme which will phase out tariffs over 15 years.”

    15 years! That doesn’t sound like “free trade” to me.’
    _________________________________
    Johnson rolled Morrison.

  27. Zerlo

    Good try. NATO has announced it’s coming to the IndoPacific. That slice and dice strategy of division is not going too well.

  28. Bucephalus and Lars Von Trier seriously worried about a story that most are willing to watch play out.

    Can Teflon Morrison put Qannon back in the bag? I think it will come down to the state of the Liberal party. Is Morrison about to go the same way as Rudd1? Are the knives out?

  29. Jon Stewart does a great Bushfire Bill impersonation on a rocking The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. 1st show back at the Ed Sullivan.

    Look it up. Follow your google.

  30. frednk says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:30 pm

    You have no evidence of that, however.

    guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:33 pm

    Zerlo

    Good try. NATO has announced it’s coming to the IndoPacific. That slice and dice strategy of division is not going too well.

    NATO is not looking for a war.

    It’s funny you all ignoring Russia, who took over Ukraine, and had Donald Trump asked Ukraine to investigate Biden family.

    Sad pathetic pair the both of you.

  31. Tom the first and best says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:34 pm

    The west is just jealous you know.

    Funny how you all ignored Russia during this time, while west is targeting China.

    One day attacking Russia with Donald Trump, and now moved to target China.

    Who is the one blinded by politics. PB is shit.

  32. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:38 pm

    The IndoWhatever is going to do shit all, just like they always have done.

    Didn’t you claim that the QUAD was gonna solve everything before, guytaur?

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