9:59am Tuesday The final presidential result is Lula over Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2. I think Lula would have won by about 53-47 if Brazil used preferential voting, so he’s still the clear favourite to win the October 30 runoff.
In the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 of the 513 Chamber of Deputies seats (up 66), while Lula’s alliance won 80 seats (up 11). There are many parties represented, but it looks as if right-wing parties have a majority. The Liberals won eight of the 27 Senate seats up for election, and two other right-wing parties won eight seats (there are a total of 81 senators). So both chambers will have right-wing majorities.
12:52pm With 99.5% counted, Lula’s lead hits five points, 48.3-43.3.
12:01pm With 98.5% counted, Lula leads by 48.1-43.5, a 4.6% margin. He will be a heavy favourite to win the October 30 runoff, but Bolsonaro has performed much better than polls expected.
10:48am With 92.6% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 47.4-44.1, a 3.3% margin. The five pre-election polls gave Lula an eight to 16 point first round margin over Bolsonaro. They don’t look good.
10:34am There are big swings against Bolsonaro in the big urban states, like the federal district, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. But his vote is holding up much better in rural states like Amazonas, Para and Tocantis. Bolsonaro won the 2018 runoff by a 55.1-44.9 margin.
10:25am With 82.6% counted, Lula leads by 46.5-44.8, a 1.7% margin.
10:05am With 70% counted, Lula takes the lead by 45.7-45.5.
10am Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 46.0-45.2 with 60.3% reporting. But it looks likely that polls have understated Bolsonaro. He’s likely to lose this round when all votes are counted, but the margin could be close, and the runoff will be a contest. Shades of Trump in the US 2020 election?
9:34am Bolsonaro’s lead keeps shrinking as more votes are counted. He’s down to a 2.2% margin (46.7-44.5) with 46% counted.
9:21am With 35.5% counted, Bolsonaro’s lead drops to 3.5% nationally. 89% has been counted in Espirito Santo, and Bolsonaro leads there by 52-40. In 2018, he won this state by 63.1-36.9
9:11am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro still leads by 47.6-43.6 nationally. But he appears to be underperforming badly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, both of which he won by 68.0-32.0 in 2018.
9:01am While there’s a big swing against Bolsonaro in the federal district, there doesn’t seem to be in Tocantins. With 65% counted here, Lula is winning by 48.9-45.3. Bolsonaro lost this state in the 2018 runoff 51.0-49.0.
8:51am With 16.2% reporting, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 47.9-43.4 nationally. In the federal district, with over 82% in, his lead is 52-37, down from 70-30 in 2018.
8:21am With 4.9% of the overall vote counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.8-42.1. He’s still winning the federal district 52-36 with 52% in.
8:08am Over 42% has been counted in the federal district, with Bolsonaro winning by 52-36. But in the 2018 runoff, he won the federal district by 70-30.
7:51am With 1.5% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 48.5-41.6 for Lula. I believe the current results are unrepresentative, and that Lula will improve when more results from the northeastern states report.
7:17am Monday The Guardian has results of the presidential election. So far just 0.14% has been counted
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election occurs today. If nobody wins at least 50%, a runoff between the top two first round candidates will be held October 30. The major contenders are the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), who was president from 2003 to 2010.
Brazil has four time zones, but voting hours are synchronised, so that polls in trailing time zones open and close an hour earlier local time than polls in leading time zones. All polls close at 7am Monday AEDT (note: not AEST). As votes are recorded electronically, counting should be fast. There is no pre-poll or postal voting; all votes must be cast on election day.
The final five Brazilian polls, mostly taken since Thursday’s debate, have had Lula leading Bolsonaro by eight to 16 points in the first round. If the contest goes to the October 30 runoff, the polls give Lula a nine to 17 point lead. Voting is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70.
Brazilian polls include undecided. Lula is currently in the high 40s in the first round in most polls, but undecided is at 1-9%. If undecided were excluded, as most polls in Australia do, three of the last five polls would give Lula just over the 50% needed to win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff.
As well as the presidential election, there are legislative elections today. All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation, and 27 of the 81 senators (one per state) will be elected by first past the post. Many parties are currently represented.
In the last three years, left-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. A win in Brazil would cement the left’s dominance in South America even as they struggle in Europe.
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